A CONTRARIAN ANALYSIS

Stan GrossmanJim EpleyDavid MillerMeredith Hollowell

GGS 68410 February 2011

Secretary Colin Powell’s speech to the UN Security Council, 05 June 2003

Group DaVinci

Agenda

Profile of Saddam Hussein Team B Alternative Devil’s Advocate Deconstruction What If Scenario Conclusions

Saddam Hussein – Profile

Judicious political calculator Commitments and loyalty are matters of

circumstance, and circumstances change Nothing must be permitted to stand in

“the great struggler’s” messianic path Messianic ambition for unlimited power

dreams will be realized when the Arab nation is unified under one strong leader – Hussein

Will go to whatever lengths are necessary to achieve his goals

Saddam Hussein – Profile

Three main threats after 1996: Increased Security Vulnerabilities Strengthening International Support Increased Importance of WMD Program

Defying the international community on WMD is a regular reminder to the military of his courage in defying the superior adversary

Saddam Hussein of Iraq: A Political Psychology Profile

Jerrold M. Post, M.D.

Stan Grossman

Team B Alternative

Hypothesis

Saddam required at least the appearance of weapons of mass destruction to maintain his powerful, threatening image in the region, and to maintain the loyalty of his military.

Is it possible that this was a giant bluff to maintain his image of strength?

Method of Deception Evaluate the chain of evidence and conclude

that the links are solid and conclusive, or not It is the job of a disinfo artist to interfere with

these evaluationsTwenty-Five Ways To Suppress Truth:   The Rules of DisinformationH. Michael Sweeney

The Ladder of InferenceMind Tools Ltd.

“Evidence-1”

26 November & 20 January tapes Misinterpretation – dual meanings “evacuated” – to a central location for

destruction? “destroy” message – provides

implication of something to hide while performing simple housekeeping

“Evidence-2”

Hard drives at weapons facilities replaced

One scientist possessed documents at home Misdirection – shell game Make world believe that weapons exist Fabricate mantle of willyness – much

admired trait

“Evidence-3” Satellite photos of weapons

movement Misdirection – shell game Fake movement designed to infer

existence Provide known “indicators” that can be

false

“Evidence-4”

Accused UN inspectors of espionage Big lie Bluff and delaying tactic Put “enemy” on the defensive

“Evidence-5”

Scientists warned not to cooperate with UN inspectors

Received counter-intelligence training False implications – appearance of guilt Implied threat infers guilt Appearance of hiding things

“Evidence-6”

Defector provides details and returns of Iraq to his death under suspicious circumstances Whatever lengths - ruthless Send false information Then eliminate the messenger to

prevent recant

“Evidence-7”

Testimony by Iraqi officers to NBC and delivery mechanisms Misinformation – “whistleblower” vs.

adminstration Provide false statements from

“knowledgeable” sources Complaint – no proof of destruction

provided; no hard proof of existence provided either

“Evidence-8”

Intercepted communications on dual use items Play up well documented chemical

warfare history “Why should any of us give Iraq the

benefit of the doubt?” Misdirection – exactly the point

“Evidence-9”

Acquisition and construction of missile and airborne WMD delivery vehicles Misdirection – provide what the expect to

see Easy, low-cost, anticipated props to

imply capability

Jim Epley

Devil’s Advocate Deconstruction

Devil’s Advocate Analysis

LEGO breakdown and reassemble process: Outline the mainline judgment and key assumptions and

characterize the evidence supporting that current analytic view.

Select one or more assumptions—stated or not—that appear the most susceptible to challenge.

Review the information used to determine whether any is of questionable validity, whether deception is possibly indicated, or whether major gaps exist.

Highlight the evidence that could support an alternative hypothesis or contradicts the current thinking.

Present to the group the findings that demonstrate there are flawed assumptions, poor quality evidence, or possible deception at work.

Consider drafting a separate contrarian paper that lays out the arguments for a different analytic conclusion if the review uncovers major analytic flaws.

No Effort to Comply with Resolution

Failure to Cooperate

HUMINT SIGINT

Deceive

IMINT

“Evidence-1” 26 November & 20 January tapes

Powell Evacuate, not destroy Effort to hide intent

Devil’s Advocate

“evacuated” – to a central location for destruction? Arabic-to-English Linguists are in short-supply & being human, aren’t

100% accurate . Arabic words for : 1. Evacuate, 2. Remove, and 3. Abolish sound

similar when spoken (2 of 3 begin with an “IL” sound) SIGINT Linguist may have gisted “evacuated “ inaccurately.

“destroy” message – embarrassed to be perceived as incompetent? Destruction of sensitive communiqués is good housekeeping. Destruction of classified material is the primary focus of an

Emergency Action Plan ( EAP) which would have been in effect at the time.

“Evidence-2” Hard drives at weapons facilities replaced One scientist possessed documents at home

Powell Deceive, hide, keep from inspectors

Devil’s Advocate

Periodic replacement of hard drives at sensitive locations is standard INFOSEC and OPSEC.

Many scientists, engineers, and even students take working papers & documents to continue work at home as I’m sure many of us in this room do (to our partners’ discontent).

Not all “classified” documents are nefarious in nature – In fact most are rather mundane.

“Evidence-2a”

“Detailed plans” for a UAV recovered from a residence*

* Location: 5604 Flag Run Drive, Springfield, VA

Road

CedarRambler

“Evidence-3” Satellite photos of weapons

movement Powell

Weapons exist based on “movement”, “signatures”

Devil’s Advocate No corroborating hard evidence that anything at all

was actually in the bunkers. Decontamination vehicle

is a high-pressure power washer which can be used for peaceful commercial purposes.

Even the Store-it-Yourself facility down US-29 in Fairfax has “Security”.

“Evidence-4” Accused UN inspectors of espionage

Powell Proof of guilt and attempt to coerce population

Devil’s Advocate

Saddam Hussein was a paranoid psychopath.

Patriotism is largely about national pride, and enforcement of inspections by foreigners questioned the legitimacy of Iraqi National Command Authority claims

Hence, cooperation with UN inspectors was unpatriotic, as they were foreign adversaries that were conducting activities that violated Iraqi sovereignty because the didn’t have the best interests of Iraq at heart (i.e., espionage).

“Evidence-5” Scientists warned not to cooperate with UN inspectors Received counter-intelligence training

Powell Indicates attempt to hide truth

Devil’s Advocate

Purpose of CI is to prevent the inadvertent passing of sensitive information to foreign adversaries.

CI Awareness Training is standard OPSEC regularly practiced all over the world.

US normally provides CI Awareness Training annually.

More sensitive US positions require periodic polygraph examinations in addition to CI Awareness Training.

“Evidence-6” Defector provides details and returns of Iraq to his

death under suspicious circumstances Powell

Details provide proof if existence Suspicious death is validation of details

Devil’s Advocate

Defector was conducting espionage – Hence he actually was a traitor to Saddam Hussein.

May have over-inflated his importance/knowledge/ value by sensationalizing claims & over-reaching.

Traitor would have naturally wanted to tell the interrogators (what he thought ) they would want to hear to keep from being sent back to “certain death” in Iraq for espionage.

“Evidence-7” Testimony by Iraqi officers to NBC and delivery

mechanisms Powell

Proof of existence

Devil’s Advocate

“Delivery mechanisms” can deliver anything. Similar argument was made against US when Gary Powers

was shot down in his U2 over USSR:

He stated that he was pushing a button to take pictures, Soviets asserted that he could have been pushing a button to

drop bombs, Following that logic, Gary Powers could have released chemical,

biological or nuclear weapons from a US plane over the USSR.

It is very difficult to prove a negative.

“Evidence-8” Intercepted communications on dual use items

Powell Need for SIGINT and HUMINT Well documented chemical warfare history “Why should any of us give Iraq the benefit of the

doubt?”

Devil’s Advocate

Intelligence cited has not been fused and data that were presented were only separate instances of Single-Source Intelligence which hardly qualified as Multi-INT.

Incidents presented were neither thoroughly correlated nor properly substantiated – Much of it was RUMINT at best.

“Evidence-9” Acquisition and construction of missile

and airborne WMD delivery vehicles Powell

Clear indication of intent Devil’s Advocate

UAV/UAS platform didn’t fly beyond the stated range limitation either one-way or round-trip.

Demonstration wasn’t technically a violation. UAV/UAS platforms are also excellent for aerial

surveillance and some have no lethality whatsoever: Global Hawk (remember earlier diagram) Fire Scout (also made by Northrop Grumman)

David Miller

Devil’s Advocate Deconstruction

#2

Indeed, the facts and Iraq’s behavior show that Saddam Hussein and his regime are concealing their efforts to produce more weapons of mass destruction.Secretary Powell, UN Security Council, February 5, 2003

•Iraq is not cooperating and is producing WMDs.

IRAQ’S WMD THREAT

All weapons—biological, chemical, missile, nuclear, were destroyed.General Hussein Kamal, former director of Iraq’s weapons programs, to UNSCOM in August 22, 1995, after defecting from Iraq. Killed upon returning to Iraq in 1996.

Since we arrived in Iraq, we have conducted more than 400 inspections covering more than 300 sites. …it is seen from our experience that Iraq had decided in principle to provide cooperation on process. R

Dr. Hans Blix, UN Chief Weapons Inspector, UN Security Council, February 14, 2003

• Iraq is cooperating and is not producing WMDs.

UNMOVIC inspections are more sophisticated, and receiving more cooperation from the Iraqis, than previous UNSCOM inspections, and UNSCOM destroyed more chemical and biological weapons facilities than the Gulf war. No evidence that Colin Powell has presented today suggests we need to rush headlong into war.Dr. Ian Davis, British American Security Information Council, February 5, 2003

• Inspections are working.

IRAQ’S WMD THREAT

What we see is a deliberate campaign to prevent any meaningful inspection work.Secretary Powell, UN Security Council, February 5, 2003

• Inspections are not working.

There can be no doubt that Saddam Hussein has biological weapons and the capability to rapidly produce more, many more.Secretary Powell, UN Security Council, February 5, 2003

• Iraq has and is building WMDs.

From 27 November 2002 to 17 March 2003, UNMOVIC conducted over 90 inspections of (biological and chemical) munitions-related facilities in Iraq. No evidence of either current or recent development or production of proscribed munitions was uncovered.UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (MOVIC), 2003

Biological & Chemical Weapons

While we were never able to provide 100 percent certainty regarding the disposition of Iraq's proscribed weaponry, we did ascertain a 90-95 percent level of verified disarmament.Scott Ritter, UN weapons inspector from 1991-98 (UNSCOM), July 20, 2002

• There is little or no evidence of WMDs in Iraq.

In May 2002, our satellites photographed the unusual activity in this picture. Here we see cargo vehicles are again at this transshipment point, and we can see that they are accompanied by a decontamination vehicle associated with biological or chemical weapons activity.Secretary Powell, UN Security Council, February 5, 2003

• Proves weapons activity

The "decontamination vehicles" U.N. teams were led to by U.S. information invariably turned out to be simple water or fire trucks.Inspector Jorn Siljeholm, MOVIC, March 19, 2003

• Does not prove weapons activity

Chemical Weapons

Nuclear Weapons

The Intelligence Bureau and the State Department at this time we were preparing Secretary Powell (for the UN speech) dissented on one key issue. And they essentially said there was no active nuclear program in Iraq. Laurence Wilkerson, Chief of Staff, U.S. Department of State, statement on preparing Secretary Powell for UN speech

• Iraq does not have an active nuclear weapons program.

We have more than a decade of proof that he remains determined to acquire nuclear weapons.Secretary Powell, UN Security Council, February 5, 2003

• Iraq has an active nuclear weapons program.

Nuclear Weapons

First, we have inspected all of those buildings and facilities that were identified, through satellite imagery, as having been modified or constructed over the past four years. No prohibited nuclear activities have been identified during these inspections.Mohamed ElBaradei, Director General IAEA, UN Security Council, January 27, 2003

• No evidence that Iraq is pursuing nuclear weapons.

We have no indication that Saddam Hussein has ever abandoned his nuclear weapons program.Secretary Powell, UN Security Council, February 5, 2003

• Iraq is still pursuing nuclear weapons.

Nuclear Weapons Sites

Bombed by Israelis, 1981

Bombed by coalition, 1990-93

Monitored by IAEA

• Nuclear sites were either destroyed or are being monitored.

Ballistic Missiles

What I want you to know today is that Iraq has programs that are intended to produce ballistic missiles that can fly over 1,000 kilometers.Secretary Powell, UN Security Council, February 5, 2003

• Iraq has an active ballistic missile program.

Iraq doesn’t have the capability to do long-range ballistic missiles. There is a lot of testing that has to take place, and this testing is all carried out outdoors. They can’t avoid detection.Scott Ritter, UN weapons inspector from 1991-98 (UNSCOM), 2002

• Iraq does not have a ballistic missile capability.

Meredith Hollowell

What If Scenario

“What If?” AnalysisA Trail of Causation Assumes an event has occurred with potential (negative or

positive) impact and explains how it might come about. Focuses on the causes of an event vs. its consequences (HI/LP).

Useful for challenging a strong mindset that a confidently made forecast might not be entirely justified.

Use of this technique is important when examining a decision based on questionable or limited information, providing policymakers with a cautionary counterpoint to the conventional wisdom.

Steps to take: Think backwards and develop a plausible pathway through which this hypothetical event occurs.

Present to the group the findings that enable decision-makers to ‘hedge their bets’ even if the conventional analytic line is accepted.

Continue to monitor any indicators as the situation develops.

Conventional Analytic Line According to Powell’s UN Security

Council Brief and the “evidence” compiled: Saddam Hussein has WMDs Saddam Hussein has shown

megalomaniacal tendencies Conclusion: To protect the free world we

must preempt any attack

“What If?”ScenarioThe possibility of a total economic collapse is remote, but what if, as a result of acting on the conventional analysis the US finds itself in a protracted two theater war, causing a catastrophic economic collapse and therefore weakened ability to deal with potential security threats?

Thinking Backwards Steps leading up to a total economic collapse

Act on hearsay and circumstantial findings that Iraq has WMDs Military Action – invade Iraq as a coalition force with the

intent to force Saddam’s hand

Due to overwhelming fire power and Saddam’s reduced capability fighting attrition-style warfare from the first Gulf War, coalition forces easily topple Saddam’s regime and kill Saddam Hussein

Prior to being ousted Saddam makes one last bid at vengeance Destroys profit-making infrastructure to prevent coalition

use of it.

Thinking Backwards (cont) Fear on the part of the US to leave a political and security

vacuum (similar to Afghanistan in the ’90’s) necessitates an increased presence on the ground in Iraq Now fighting two full-time wars

Increased military spending Iran, seeing a vulnerable US, floods the world market with

cheap oil Causes OPEC nations to slow their purchase of US national

debt China, seizing the opportunity to increase their sphere of

influence, also stops buying US national debt Causes a catastrophic meltdown of the US economy

Historical Perspective

Nation building, governance overhauls and examples of their failures

Vietnam (’65-’75)

Haiti (1994)

Bosnia (’95-’04)

Parting Remarks Some Implications

In the ensuing chaos of the toppled regime in Iraq some of the WMDs, prior to confiscation, go missing

In the weakened state caused by a second Great Depression these missing WMDs can more easily be used against us, to more devastating effect

Caveats Difficult to construct a “What If?” storyline,

looking in hindsight Natural tendency to mimic the path history took Prevents a more thorough analysis

Conclusions

Conclusions Based on:

Saddam Hussein’s profile and known disinformation techniques

Evidence with multiple possible presentations Contradictory evidence And previously unconsidered impacts

There is a low probability that Iraq is in possession of or is pursuing the stockpiling of WMD

And that this could be a case of posturing in an attempt to appear strong and still viable as a national, regional, and global leader