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Orlando José Ferreira NetoDirector of Market Intelligence
Airline Market Trends and Outlook24th - 25th February 2005
President Wilson Hotel, Geneva
Orlando José Ferreira NetoDirector of Market Intelligence
Airline Market Outlook Some Key Elements Shaping the New Industry
(30 to 120 seat segment)
EMBRAER Analysts& Investors Meeting
June 15th, 2005Paris, France
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Contents
Key Global Market Trends
Regional Jets Sustained Operation
From Concept to Reality – the E-Jets Family
Embraer Market Forecast
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Forward Looking Statement
This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our market. The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,” “intends,”“expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Key Global Market Trends
• Traffic Recovery
Source: US Bureau of Economics Analysis and DOT Form 41
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005F
Network Low Cost Regional
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005F
Network Low Cost Regional
Intra-Europe (RPK Billion) US Domestic (RPM Billion)
• Disconnection fromForecast Ground Rules
• Historically > 0.90% of GDP, PassengerRevenue is below 0.70%.
• RPM is becoming a more complex functionof GDP and Yield.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Key Global Market Trends
• Around 70% of all domestic passengers in North America and Europe have access to low cost carriers services.
• LCCs hold air fare pricing power.
• Passengers are more stringent on air travel value proposition.
• LCC Expansion
• Shift in Market Share
• US: LCCs and Regionals expanding.
• Intra-Europe: LCCs expanding and
Regionals concentrating on secondary/
/business markets development.
85%76%
64%
85%77%
68%
17%
3% 5% 9% 14% 16% 15%12%19%
27%1%
7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1995 2000 2004 1995 2000 2004Network Low Cost Regional
US Domestic (% RPK) Intra-Europe
Source: Airlines, Embraer
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Key Global Market Trends
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Jan-
01
Apr
-01
Jul-0
1
Oct
-01
Jan-
02
Apr
-02
Jul-0
2
Oct
-02
Jan-
03
Apr
-03
Jul-0
3
Oct
-03
Jan-
04
Apr
-04
Jul-0
4
Oct
-04
Jan-
05
Apr
-05
% C
hang
e in
Pas
seng
er R
even
ues
per M
ile (Y
ield
) vs
2000
Source: ATA - Air Transport Association
• U.S. Pax Yields DownSharply from 2000
• No evidences or expectation of a sizable recuperation.
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Cru
de O
il (U
S$/B
arre
l)
0
50
100
150
200
Jet F
uel (
US¢
/Gal
lon)WTI
Jet Fuel• Several factors (cold weather, wars, higher import rates, refinery operations issues etc) led to higher crude oil/refined product prices.
• Projected oil prices indicate a shift from historical US$25-30/barrel level to US$ 45-50 short term and US$40-45 longer term.
• Crude Oil and Jet Fuel Prices
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Key Global Market Trends60%of flights
4 8 13 13 8 7 5 2 220150
5
10
15
20
25
50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 >150
%
Passengers per DepartureSource: US DOT/Embraer
• 60% of all US domestic flights depart with load factor more appropriate to 70-110 seat aircraft.
• 95% of all North American narrow-body flights are within 1,700nm range.
• 85% of city pairs exclusively served by narrow body jets have less than two daily frequencies.
• Fleet Right-Sizing
810 Aircraft olderthan 20 Years35% of total fleet in service
• Replacement Crisis – Ageing Fleets (61 to 120 seats)
451
320
492
233
361
212237
0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 30Aircraft Age (Years)Source: DOT/Embraer - Fleet in service - Jan 2005
• 35% of total fleet is more than 20 years in service
and shall start to be replaced in the coming years.
• Old technology equipments, most of them no longer
in production.
• Inefficient and expensive aircraft to operate.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Not Another Cycle, but a Fundamental Change
New Passenger Profile Different Set of Values
Ultra Competitive Environment
Strong Focus on Cost Reduction, Reduced Investments Cash is King
Maximum Utilization of Assets (fleet optimization and flexibility)
Clash of 3 models (LCC x Network x Regional)It´s about cost and efficiencyIt´s about value proposition
Fast Scope Clauses Relaxation / / Closing the 70-110 Seat Gap
(Bottom-Up and Top-Down)
B75
7
B73
7
B73
7
B73
7
B75
7
A31
9
A32
0
B75
7
A32
0
MD
80B
737
A32
0
B73
7A
319
MD
80
B75
7
B73
7
Seat Capacity
25 50 75 100 125 150 175+
B75
7
B73
7
MD
80
B73
7
Source: US DOT/Embraer
B75
7
B73
7
A32
0
A31
970 to 110 Seats
70 to 110 Seats
Regional Jets Sustained Operation
(30-60 seat segment)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Regional Jet - A Dynamic Tool
When markets are strong…RJs expand the air transport system by enhancing catchment areas, adding more spokes to carrier hubs, opening new routes and increasing frequency.
RJs help to defend an airline’s overall market presence / network integrity by maintaining route-frequency, replacing unprofitable mainline jet services and rightsizing aircraft capacity to demand.
… and when markets are weak
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
ERJ 145 FamilyThe Evolution of Regionals
An Intrinsic Part of the Solution
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
ERJ 145 Family Orderbook
(as of March 31st., 2005)
82
47
20
15
FirmBacklog
8161,131233898Total
634892211681ERJ 145
741142094ERJ 140
1081252123ERJ 135
DeliveriesTotalOptionsFirm
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Regional Jet Network - Europe
Jan 1995: 104 Routes
Jan 2005: 1143 Routes
Source: Back/OAG (Feb/05 - ERJ-145/140/135, CRJ-100/200/440, 328Jet routes)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
ERJ 145 Family Network - Europe
Average Stage Length = 430 miles
TP TP ComplementComplement
13%
JetJet ReplacementReplacement
18%
JetJet ComplementComplement
17%
TP TP ReplacementReplacement
21%
NewNew RoutesRoutes
31%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
424 routesSource: BACK/OAG(Jan/05)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
New Routes Development - London CityERJ 135: Steep Approach Capable (London City Airport)Still Air Range: 600 nm
ERJ 135
- Typical European airline OEW
- Full PAXPassengers at 90.7 kg (200 lb)
- Cruise at LRC
- Airport Temp. at 20.5ºC / ISA+5.5ºC (85% Summer)
- 85% Summer Winds
- JAR OPS Reserves100 nm alternate
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
ERJ 145 Average StageLength: 345 m
China EasternBacklog of 5 ERJ 145
Chengdu
Sichuan Airlines5 ERJ 145 Guangzhou
China Southern6 ERJ 145
Source: BACK/OAG(1Q05)
New Routes Development - China
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
ERJ – AeroLitoral
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
17%
25%
41%
New New RoutesRoutes
TP TP ReplacementReplacementTP TP ComplementComplementJetJet ReplacementReplacement
17%
Source: BACK/OAG(Jan/05)
CENCENCENCENCENCENCENCENCEN
HMOHMOHMOHMOHMOHMOHMOHMOHMO
LMMLMMLMMLMMLMMLMMLMMLMMLMM
CULCULCULCULCULCULCULCULCUL
CJSCJSCJSCJSCJSCJSCJSCJSCJS
CUUCUUCUUCUUCUUCUUCUUCUUCUU
TIJTIJTIJTIJTIJTIJTIJTIJTIJ
MEXMEXMEXMEXMEXMEXMEXMEXMEXGDLGDLGDLGDLGDLGDLGDLGDLGDL
BJXBJXBJXBJXBJXBJXBJXBJXBJX
MTYMTYMTYMTYMTYMTYMTYMTYMTY
The ERJ 145, on average, attracts 10 more pax per flighton every route it replaces the Saab.
Since the incorporation of the ERJ 145s, AeroMexico’s market share, on disputed routes, has increased by 9 p.p.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Year 1995: 192 Routes
Year 2004: 2912 Routes
Regional Jet Network - USA
Source: Back/OAG (Mar/05; ERJ-145/140/135, CRJ-100/200/440, 328Jet routes)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
TP Complement
6%
RJ Replacement
5%
RJ Complement
3%
Jet Complement
18%
TP Replacement
18%
Jet Replacement
22%
New Routes
28%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1371 routes
Average Stage Length = 460 miles
Source: BACK/OAG(Jan/05)
ERJ 145 Family Network - USA
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
ERJ 145 Family Network
Source: BACK/OAG (Jan/05)
< 1 hour1 – 2 hours2 – 3 hours> 3 hours
179 (15%)41 (14%)< 1 hour
Number of Routes
380 (30%)87 (31%)2 - 3 hours
48 (4%)0> 3 hours
639 (51%)157 (55%)1 - 2 hours
Jan/2005Jan/2000
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
RJ Monopoly Routes: 848(29% of total RJ routes
without any direct competition)
Total RJ Routes: 2912
Year 2004
RJ Routes - Network Airlines
Source: Back/OAG (Yr 2004: ERJ-145/140/135, CRJ-100/200/440, 328Jet routes)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
US Regional System Network
21%
44%
35%
27%
15% 15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
AA CO DL NW UA US
•• A A hhigh percentage of RJ service is on monopoly routes
Source: BACK/OAG (Jan/05; analysis by airport)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
30-60 Seat RJs Monopoly Routes
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
AA CO DL NW UA US TotalSystem
0 - 2 2 - 5 5 - 7
• 75% of all RJs monopoly routes are operated with less than 2 daily frequencies
Source: OAG (2004)
From Concept to Reality –
E-stablishingthe 170/190 Family
(61-120 seat segment)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
The Rule of 70 to 110 (www.ruleof70to110.com)
THE FIRST ISSUE: THE NEED FOR AIRLINES TO RIGHT-SIZE THEIR FLEETSThe Rule gives the airlines the tools to right-size their fleets thereby optimally matching capacity to demand.
THE SECOND ISSUE: AIRLINES USING AIRCRAFT WITH TOO MUCH CAPACITYThe Rule, by allowing the airline to efficiently right-size, creates increased frequency to capture market share and provides customers with more choice. The airlines can therefore focus their 120-plus seat aircraft on high-demand routes.
THE THIRD ISSUE: USE OF TODAY’S REGIONAL JETS IS NOT OPTIMIZEDThe Rule provides the right aircraft for the right market and allows the airlines to reposition their existing fleets to ensure that aircraft are neither overused or underused.
THE FOURTH ISSUE: AGEING FLEETSThe Rule, by introducing the right equipment for the right market, gives airlines the opportunity to develop the most optimum aircraft replacement strategy.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
The E-Jets Family
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
The E- Jets Family Positioning
Natural evolution of 50 seat market
Tapping an existing gap
Enhancing services (frequency)
Low risk for demand stimulation
Improving network deployment (capacity & range)
New markets opportunities (long & thin routes)
Replacing old & inefficient narrow body jets
Blurring the line between regional and mainline operations
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
EMBRAER 170 EIS Statistics
Operating Summary
Operators 5
Aircraft in Service 62
Flight hours 102,829
Flight Cycles 70,820(as of May 31st., 2005)
PR 03/Jun/05
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
EMBRAER 170 Network
Source: BACK/OAG(Jan/05)
RightRight--sizingsizing
50%
Natural Natural GrowthGrowth
45%
NewNew RoutesRoutes
5%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
EMBRAER 170 - Republic
16 @ 34”
“The delivery of our first EMBRAER 170 ushers in a new period in the continued growth of our company and will allow us to support our growing United Express operation. The 170’s unique design allows us to offer United a true mainline product but at regional jet operating economics”.
Bryan Bedford, Chairman, President and CEOof Republic Airways Holdings (Sep/2004)
6 @ 36”70 seats:
Forward GalleyForward Lavatory
FA SeatWardrobeFA Seat
Aft GalleyAft Lavatory
48 @ 31” pitch
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
EMBRAER 170 Network
RightRight--sizingsizing
39%
Natural Natural GrowthGrowth
59%
NewNew RoutesRoutes
2%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Source: BACK/OAG(Jan/05)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
EMBRAER 170 Main Missions
46%
48%
6%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
48%39%
68%
50%
RightRight--sizingsizing
45%59%
24%45%
Natural Natural GrowthGrowth
7%2% 8% 5%
NewNew RoutesRoutes
Source: BACK/OAG(Jan/05)
Low Cost Carriers
Next Steps
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
LCC Next Step - Moving Downward in Capacity
Year 20041,304 markets
From these 1,304 markets, at least 646 are perfectly suited for a 70-110 seater LCC operation
500 PDEW = 160/170 seater x 100% LF x 3 frequenciesupper boundary for a B737, A319/320
315 PDEWlower boundary for a B737, A319/320
29%105 PDEW = 50 seater x 70% LF x 3 frequencieslower boundary for a 50 seater
50%
21%
150 PDEWupper boundary for a 50 seater
Source : US DOT OD1A
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
200 400
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
65%75%
Network Carriers
Opportunities
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Opportunity for Right Size - Aircraft Capacity
3 4
8
1315
20
13
8 75
2 2
0
5
10
15
20
25
<50 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 ≥150Passengers per Departure
% o
f Flig
hts
35% of flights depart with loads
appropriate for 90-110 seat
aircraft
Source: Back (US DOT T100; 2003)
25% of flights depart with loads
appropriate for 70-80 seat aircraft
More than half of the US domestic flights in 2003 would be better suited to 70-110 seat aircraft.
Excess capacity translates to wasted seats, higher operating costs, and
greater potential for unprofitability
US Domestic Flights (Jets ≥ 100 seats)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Opportunity for Right Size - Aircraft Capacity
Source: US DOT (T100 - Segment)
US Domestic Flights (Jet aircraft ≥ 100 seats)
0
5
10
15
20
25
<50 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 ≥150Pax per Departure
% o
f Flig
hts
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Opportunity for Right Size - Aircraft CapacityOptimizing Fleet CapacityOptimizing Fleet Capacity
Mainline United Airlines Domestic Network
Source: United Airlines (The-Mechanic.com)
<50<50 5050 6060 7070 8080 9090 100100 110110 120120 130130 140140 150150 >150>150
22
44
66
99
12121313 1313
101099
6655
33
88
In 19% of all UA flights the
actual load factors called for a 70-90 seater
Passengers per Departure
In 38% of all UA flights the actual load factor called
for a 90-110 seater
Per
cent
of F
light
s
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
Num
ber o
f Flig
hts
100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2250 2750 >3000
Distance Sector (nm)
1995
2004
Total Market Served by 91-180 Seats Aircraft (US Airlines)
The Opportunity for Right Size - Range
95% of flights are within 1,700 nm range with no remarkable evolution since 1995
Source: Back/OAG
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Opportunities for Enhancing Market Presence
Rightsizing and Frequency IncreaseAverage Daily Frequency by Route (USA and Europe - Yr 2004)Routes operated exclusively by Jet aircraft (from 91 – 180 seats ; routes up to 2000 nm)
Source: OAG (Jan/2005)
53%
28%
12%
5%2%
0 - 0,5 0,5 - <2 2 - <5 5 - <10 >=10
Average Daily Freqency
City
Pai
rs
5760 routes with less than 2 average daily frequency
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
EMBRAER 190 – Air Canada“The introduction of new generation small jet aircraft to our fleet is a key component of Air Canada’s restructuring business plan to implement high frequency, low-cost services on new and existing routes in Canada and the US.
Consistent with this strategy, the EMBRAER 190 will be deployed to pursue strategic market opportunities in North America while offering customers a
premium travel experience with enhanced space, comfort and convenience".
Robert Milton, Air Canada President and CEO (Sep/2004)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
EMBRAER 170/190 Family Orderbook
(as of March 31st., 2005)
15-15-15EMBRAER 175
301
15
155
116
FirmBacklog
56744387357Total
-352015EMBRAER 195
-385230155EMBRAER 190
56309137172EMBRAER 170
DeliveriesTotalOptionsFirm
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
EMBRAER 170/175 - LOT
• four EMBRAER 170 options from their original contract converted into four firm orders for EMBRAER 175
“The EMBRAER 170s and EMBRAER 175s are pivotal elements in our businessplan to support our network expansion from the Warsaw hub. These aircraft give
us more seat capacity and range, which will enable us to access new markets”.Marek Grabarek, LOT CEO (May/2005)
Embraer
Market
Forecast
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Embraer Market Forecast (2005-2024)
Worldwide Jet Deliveries by Capacity Segment
4,6004,600
1,7501,750
1,5501,5501,3001,300
2015 2015 –– 20242024
7,8007,800
3,0003,000
2,8502,8501,9501,950
2005 2005 -- 20242024
3,2003,200TOTALTOTAL
1,2501,25091 91 –– 120120
1,3001,30061 61 –– 909065065030 30 -- 6060
2005 2005 -- 20142014SegmentSegment
30 to 120-seat segment value = US$ 170 billion
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Embraer Market Forecast (2005-2024)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Market Share (30-60 seat segment)
43%
32%
17%
7%
50%
46% 45% 44% 44%42%45%
50%49%
45%
51%54%52% 52%
67%
83%
93%
51%
1% 3%7% 5% 6% 4% 4% 4%4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 'May/05
EMBRAER BOMBARDIER AVCRAFT
Source: Embraer
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Market Share (61-90 seat segment)
21%
28%33% 36%
38%
16% 19%
72%
53%
49%52%
87%
64%62%
100%
67%
13%
32% 30%28%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 'May/05
EMBRAER BOMBARDIER FAIRCHILD DORNIERSource: Embraer
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Market Share (91-120 seat segment)
25%
7%7%6%7%
33%32%
56%57%59%
100% 100% 100%
67%
62%67%
73%
16%
20%26%
32%
26%
11%11%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 'May/05
EMBRAER BOEING (737-500/600, 717) AIRBUSAs of 2nd
Quarter 2004Source: Embraer
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Market Share (30-120 seat segment)
Source: Embraer
20%
28%
41%40%38%
35%
40%37%
31%
8%
3%
45% 45% 45%45%
38%
44% 43%39%
43% 42%
8%
3%3%2%
3%2%
8% 8%10%
27%
36%
11%11%12%
9%10%
17%
54%54%
4%6%5%2%
3%2%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 'May/05
EMBRAER BOMBARDIER F. DORNIER/AVCRAFT BOEING AIRBUS
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