2. Post-Cold War Era

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2. Post-Cold War Era. Threat???? Global Peace? No rival power? No rival ideology? Does US need a national security strategy anymore?. GHW Bush 1992 Defense Guidance Leaked and disavowed. Threat Emergence of a peer competitor Resurgent Russia China Regional powers (with WMD?) Iraq Iran - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of 2. Post-Cold War Era

2. Post-Cold War Era

• Threat????

• Global Peace?

• No rival power?

• No rival ideology?

• Does US need a national security strategy anymore?

GHW Bush 1992 Defense GuidanceLeaked and disavowed

Threat•Emergence of a peer competitor

– Resurgent Russia– China

•Regional powers (with WMD?)– Iraq– Iran– North Korea

Hegemonic Realism?

Soviet superpower gone.

US superpower remains.

GHW Bush StrategyMaintain Core Strategy

1.Nuclear Deterrence

2.Forward Presence

3.Peacetime Military Strength

4.Own the sea

5.NATO and other alliances

6.Free Trade and Commerce

7.Spread Democracy**

Additions to Core Strategy

1. Missile defense2. Defense cuts

• Base force and Reconstitution

3. US maintenance of global and regional balance of power

US

Russia China Europe Japan

Balancer in Regional Relationships

Crush Regional Aggressors; Reestablish Regional Balance of Power

Clinton Idealist National Security

Replacing the Truman Doctrine?

Threats?

• Regional Instability• Regional powers with WMD

– Iran, Iraq, N. Korea

• Threats to democratic transitions– Transnational problems • terrorism, drug trafficking, organized crime

US Role?

• Building post-cold war order based on Liberal-democracy

En-En Strategy

Innovations?

1.Free Trade and Commerce1. BEM

2.Spread Democracy**

3.NATO and other alliances

4.Nuclear Deterrence and missile defense

5.Forward Presence

6.Peacetime Military Strength

7.Own the sea

New Elements of Strategy

1. Focus on regional threats

• Iran, North Korea

2. Human Rights and Humanitarian Crises

• Haiti, Somalia, Bosnia

Humanitarian InterventionSomalia 1992-1994

The Ground

Bosnia 1995

The Air

3. Power Projection US military activities everywhere

Combat

• Somalia• Haiti• Bosnia• Iraq• Sudan• Afghanistan• Kosovo• Taiwan Strait

Humanitarian

• Liberia• East Timor• Guinea-Bissau• Sierra Leone• Thailand/Cambodia• Central African

Republic• Gabon and Congo

4. Two Overlapping Major Regional Contingencies (MRCs)

MRC One

MRC Two

Time

5. Military Operations Other Than WarMOOTW