Post on 16-Aug-2015
CIFOR, Oil Palm and GFSF
Ahmad DermawanCIFOR
Global Futures & Strategic Foresight Extended Team Meeting Rome, Italy | May 25-28, 2015
CIFOR and foresight
• Scenario development and analysis
• Local to national scales
• More qualitative exercises
Integrated land use planning
Designing strategies to improve small scale operators
Formulating smallholder tree planting policies
A tool for community-based forest management
Aspirations
• Future works:– Moving towards a combination of quantitative and
qualitative scenario analysis– Forest-agriculture interface, land use– Focus on key commodities: timber, oil palm,
rubber– From national to global level– Make a better use of the data
• Foresight as an evaluation tool
CIFOR works on oil palm
• Review on the opportunities and challenges of oil palm expansion
• The role of oil palm in bioenergy• The role of oil palm in local economic
development• Engagement with national government (ISPO)
and multistakeholder process (RSPO, HCS)
Global oil palm picture
• The production of palm oil is concentrated• Top two countries (Indonesia and Malaysia)
contribute to 86% of global production• Top five countries (Top two, plus Thailand,
Colombia, and Nigeria) contribute to 92% of global production
• ASEAN countries contribute to 89% of production
Oil palm production
In-done
sia
Malaysia
Thailand
ColombiaNigeria
PNGEcuador
Ghana
Hon-duras
Guatemala
Others
Indonesia - 2014
29.3 million ton CPO production
10.9 million ha area
3.6 ton CPO/ha
Indonesia – yield potentialsVariety FFB Yield (ton/ha) CPO (ton/ha)
D x P PPKS 540 (High mesocarp) 28.1 8.1
D x P PPKS 718 (Big bunch) 26.5 6.9
D x P PPKS 239 (High CPO & PKO) 32.0 8.4
D x P Simalungun 28.4 7.5
D x P Langkat 27.5 7.2
D x P Sungai Pancur (Dumpy) 26.5 6.9
D x P LaMe 26.5 6.4
D x P Avros 25.5 6.3
D x P Yangambi 26.5 6.5
Government vision 35.0 9.1
Malaysia - 2014
19.7 million ton CPO production
5.4 million ha area
3.8 ton CPO/ha
Malaysia – yield potentialsFFB (ton/ha) CPO/ha
Government target 35 8.8
Theoretical max 17
Highest trials 11.5
Highest field yield 6.8
Highest national yield 4.4
Oil palm goes home
• Land is getting scarce in Indonesia and Malaysia
• Expansion to other regions, e.g. Africa