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Progress Report on GFSF work at ILRI Presented By Dolapo Enahoro Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Extended Team Meeting Abitart Hotel, Rome 25 – 28 May, 2015

Transcript of 4 ilri gfsf-0515_final

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Progress Report on GFSF work at ILRI Presented By

Dolapo Enahoro

Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Extended Team MeetingAbitart Hotel, Rome25 – 28 May, 2015

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Modeling (>30% commitment) Dolapo Enahoro, Agricultural Economist Signe Nelgen, Policy Economist Mohamadou Fadiga, Agricultural Economist

Technologies platform (~5% time commitment) Ben Lukuyu (Feed Nutritionist) Henry Kiara (Epidemiologist) Julie Ojango (Genetics/Breeds Scientist)

GFSF Team at ILRI

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Road Map

Overview of GFSF work at ILRI

Highlights of completed work

2015 updates

Ongoing work and 2015 plans

Prospects and challenges

Discussion

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Overview of GFSF Work at ILRI

Technologies Parameterization

Livestock Systems

Characterization

Mega-drivers, scenarios of

investment and policy

IMPACT Model application

Livestock Module

Improvement

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Livestock Value Chain Analysis

Outputs

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Global livestock production systems characterization (Herrero et al., 2012)

Promising Technologies reports (2012, 2013) Analysis of options for livestock development in selected

regions (McDermott et al, 2013) Analysis of livestock futures (Herrero et al., 2013) Dialogue on livestock policy analysis and modeling (Accra

Conference, November 2013) ILRI, IFPRI, IIASA, CIRAD, AfDB, OIE, GALVmed, ACET,

academia, government, civic society represented http

://www.pim.cgiar.org/2013/11/18/mainstreaming-livestock-value-chains-conference-highlights/

Improving livestock’s specification in the IMPACT model (Msangi et al., 2014)

Highlights of Completed Work

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Report on cattle breeds and technologies in dairy systems (Ojango and Wasike, January 2015) Burkina Faso, Kenya, Tanzania India Nicaragua

Reports on livestock feeds’ use and availability and feed technologies (consultant-led study, March 2015) Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda India, Vietnam Nicaragua

Reports on cattle ECF and small ruminant PPR diseases and vaccines development (consultant-led study, May 2015) Burundi, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda Congo (Dem, Rep.,), South Sudan Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe

2015 Update: Parameters of Livestock Technologies

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Table 1. Milk productiona performance in Tanzania

Country Production system Genotype Ave. DMY

Tanzania

MixedCrossbred cattle, Mpwapwa

5.42

Extensive

Tanzania shorthorn zebu x Exotic crosses

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Medium scale dairy

Exotic x indigenous crosses

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Smallholder system

Exotic x indigenous crosses, purebred exotic

5.6

aAve. DMY= average daily milk yield in litres

Extensive rangeland/

Mixed Crop-Livestock

system98%

Intensive system

2%

Figure 2. Cattle population by production system, Tanzania

Source: Ojango et al., in prep.

Update: Some data on Livestock breeds

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Update: Some data on Cattle ECF disease

Figure 3: Map of Africa showing countries in which ECF is endemic

Country Morbidity Case fatality

  (%) (%)

Congo (DRC) 0.58 10.26

Kenya 35.25 5.98

Mozambique 1.96 67.57

South Sudan 5.06 34.38

Sudan 4.62 40.63

Tanzania 1.51 10.69

Uganda 16.3 12.35

Zambia 6.68 19.78

Zimbabwe 1.1 32.76

Source: Franco-Dixon et al., in prep.

Table 2: ECF morbidity and mortality

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Follow-up on improved livestock specification work

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2015 Update: IMPACT-Livestock Model Improvement

Source: Msangi et al., 2014

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2015 Plans: Parameters of Livestock Technologies

Update database of livestock productivity and production parameters and ensure IMPACT-compatibility

Apply data to validation exercise on IMPACT model (livestock) parameters

Data will be applied to livestock scenarios testing in IMPACT Single technology runs in multiple countries Joint technology runs where appropriate (Examples):

• Livestock breeds and feed improvement in India• Breed, feed and vaccine development in Tanzania

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2015-6 Plans: IMPACT Livestock Model application

Model testing and validation

Context-setting to livestock value chains (LVC) targeting

Scenarios development in consultation with experts on:• Genetics, feeds, animal health and other technologies

(ongoing)• Livestock value chain activities and development• Livestock-environment interactions• Climate Change effects on livestock production• National policies influencing livestock development and

how these are evolving

Improve welfare indicators and interpretation of the results to better reflect• Livestock’s role in pro-poor development• Country-specific gender and agriculture relations

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Renewed interest in foresight analysis and in its role in R&D and investment decision-making

Global funding cuts pose practical challenges to project operation

Active collaboration on scenarios development holds much promise for quality of our outputs Joint testing of food-feed grain variety improvements Joint modelling of CC effects on food-feed sources and

interactions with livestock

Prospects, Challenges and Ideas to Explore

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Discussion

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AcknowledgementsThe GFSF project at ILRI has benefited from the support of :• The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

The CGIAR Research Programs on:• Policies, Institutes and Markets• Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security• Livestock and Fish

And from research collaboration with:• IFPRI IMPACT Team• P. Havlik (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA)

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