11-6-07richard.kiang@nasa.gov

Joint 610.2 & 614.5 Seminar

July 6, 2010

40% of the world’s populations at risk

300-500 million cases per year

1-3 million deaths per year

Highest risks for children, pregnant women,

and people with depressed immunoresponse

One death every 30 seconds

ACT is becoming less sensitive.

Previously unaffected regions may have

outbreaks due to climate change.

Significant increases of fundings for malaria

control and vaccine research have rekindled hope

for eradication.

THE PROBLEMTHE PROBLEM

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Applying larval control as a preventive measure

Strengthening and mobilizingpublic health support

Cost-effectively curtailingmalaria transmission

OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES BENEFITSBENEFITS

Risk detection Detection of potential larval habitats Textural Contextual Spatial

Risk prediction Prediction of current and futureendemicity Neural network Regression Time series analysis

Risk reduction Identification of key factors that sustainor promote transmissions Agent-based simulation Spatiotemporal compartmental

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Detection of Ditches using Pan-sharpened Ikonos Data

(Larval Habitats of Anopheles sinensis in Korea)

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1.00

0.95

0.90

0.85

0.80

0.75

0.70

0.65

0.60

Ove

rall

Cla

ssif

ica

tio

n A

ccu

racy

38363432302826242220181614121086420Case Number

originalwith & withoutpanchromatic

sharpenedper pixel

only

sharpenedplus

original

sharpenedplus neighborhood mean

sharpenedplus

neighborhoodvariance

sharpenedplus

neighborhoodmean &variance

sharpenedplus

medianfilter

sharpenedplus low pass filter

sharpenedplus

dilation

sharpenedplus mean,

variance& median

filter

Classification Accuracy using Pan-Sharpened

Ikonos Data ( 1 meter resolution)

A. minimus, A. dirus, A. maculatus

Mae La Camp

Kong Mong Tha Test Site

The largest refugee camp in Thailand

(with > 30,000 population)

Collecting larvae,

… mosquitoes,

… and blood samples.

Most Thai provinces endemic with malaria are border provinces.

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MODIS Measurements

AVHRR & MODIS Measurements

TRMM Measurements

Surface Temperature

Vegetation Index

Rainfall

Satellite-Observed Meteorological & Environmental ParametersFor Four Thailand Seasons

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Actual Malaria Incidence Hindcast Incidence

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Kong Mong Tha Test Site, Kanchanaburi, ThailandKong Mong Tha Test Site, Kanchanaburi, Thailand

Malaria Surveillance Study (Jun 99 – Jan 04) Blood films from ~450 persons/month Microscopy and Polymerase Chain Reaction Larval and adult mosquito collection

Malaria Surveillance Study (Jun 99 – Jan 04) Blood films from ~450 persons/month Microscopy and Polymerase Chain Reaction Larval and adult mosquito collection

In Collaboration with AFRIMS and WRAIRIn Collaboration with AFRIMS and WRAIR

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Example: A Small Hamlet

600m

100m

23 houses2 cattle sheds24 clusters of larval habitats

69 adults23 childrens8 cows

1/7 of KMT

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Sensitivity Studies and Simulations PerformedSensitivity Studies and Simulations Performed

■ Abundance of larval habitats

■ Access to health care and appropriate treatment

■ Asymptomatic cases

■ Acquired immunity

■ Active and passive case detections

■ Bednets or personal protections

■ Improved dwelling construction

■ Parasite infectivity in mosquitoes

■ Zoonotic prophylaxis

■ Arrival of non-immune populations (such as migrant workers, refugees, foreign military forces)

Using Agent-Based Discrete Event Simulation Model

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A. balabacensis, A. minimus, A. maculatus

Rainfall Pattern, Which Drives Malaria Transmission, Varies Significantly from Island to Island

Average Monthly Precipitation for the Major Cities on the 8 Islands 2000-2005

Kalimantan

Java

MalukuSumatra

Timor

Bali

Irian Jaya

Sulawesi

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Precipitation Based on TRMM MeasurementsPrecipitation Based on TRMM Measurements

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Hindcasting Malaria Cases in Jawa Tengah, IndonesiaActual (red), Modeled (blue), and Hindcast (green) Malaria Cases

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Comparison of Kulong Progo and PurworejoACD Cases (blue) with Jawa Tengah PCD Cases (red)

precipitation (scaled)

Kulong Progo + PurworejoJawa Tengah

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A. stephensi, A. culicifacies, A. fluviatlis

Malaria in AfghanistanMalaria in Afghanistan

Little public health support is available after three decades of non-

stopped military conflicts and instability. The once successful

vertical malaria control program has long been abandoned.

Wars promote malaria transmission owing to altered environment,

man-made larval habitats, damaged dwellings, tent or outdoor living,

lack of personal protection, non-immune refugees and displaced

populations.

Approximately 14 million people live in endemic areas. It ranks

the 2nd highest in the WHO EMRO region, and 4th highest outside

Africa.

International aids help to establish a Basic Public Health Service

Package, which includes malaria treatment and control.

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It is a relatively dry country with frequent sandstorms.

Climate varies according to elevation and location. Kabul (1,795m)

has cold winters and pleasant summers. Jalalabad (550m) is

subtropical. Kandahar (1,006m) is mild year-round.

Daytime temperatures may range from freezing at dawn to ~38°C

at noon. Summer temperatures can be as high as 49°C in the

northern valleys. Midwinter temperatures can be as low as 9°C at

1,980m in the Hindu Kush.

Malaria occurs at altitudes < 2,000m and is most prevalent in

snow-fed river valleys and rice growing areas.

Transmission is seasonal from June to December.

Climate and MalariaClimate and Malaria

AfghanistanAfghanistan

MODIS RGB

RiversSettlements

Malaria Surveys

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AfghanistanAfghanistan

Precipitation

Elevation

NDVI

Temperature

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Modeling and Predicting Malaria PrevalenceTakhar Province, Afghanistan

0

1000

2000

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6000

Jan-

04

Mar

-04

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-04

Jul-0

4

Sep

-04

Nov

-04

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Mar

-05

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-05

Jul-0

5

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-05

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-06

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-06

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Jul-0

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Actual

Trained

Prediction

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-5

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25

30

35Ja

n-0

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p-0

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-06

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-07

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p-0

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No

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Temperature x 0.5

NDVI x 100

Precip x 0.2

Predicted & Actual Malaria Cases for 23 ProvincesJuly – December 2007

Thank you!Thank you!

11-6-07

richard.kiang@nasa.gov