11-6-07 [email protected] Joint 610.2 & 614.5 Seminar July 6, 2010.
28
-
Upload
abbie-jewison -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of 11-6-07 [email protected] Joint 610.2 & 614.5 Seminar July 6, 2010.
40% of the world’s populations at risk
300-500 million cases per year
1-3 million deaths per year
Highest risks for children, pregnant women,
and people with depressed immunoresponse
One death every 30 seconds
ACT is becoming less sensitive.
Previously unaffected regions may have
outbreaks due to climate change.
Significant increases of fundings for malaria
control and vaccine research have rekindled hope
for eradication.
THE PROBLEMTHE PROBLEM
Applying larval control as a preventive measure
Strengthening and mobilizingpublic health support
Cost-effectively curtailingmalaria transmission
OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES BENEFITSBENEFITS
Risk detection Detection of potential larval habitats Textural Contextual Spatial
Risk prediction Prediction of current and futureendemicity Neural network Regression Time series analysis
Risk reduction Identification of key factors that sustainor promote transmissions Agent-based simulation Spatiotemporal compartmental
Detection of Ditches using Pan-sharpened Ikonos Data
(Larval Habitats of Anopheles sinensis in Korea)
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.65
0.60
Ove
rall
Cla
ssif
ica
tio
n A
ccu
racy
38363432302826242220181614121086420Case Number
originalwith & withoutpanchromatic
sharpenedper pixel
only
sharpenedplus
original
sharpenedplus neighborhood mean
sharpenedplus
neighborhoodvariance
sharpenedplus
neighborhoodmean &variance
sharpenedplus
medianfilter
sharpenedplus low pass filter
sharpenedplus
dilation
sharpenedplus mean,
variance& median
filter
Classification Accuracy using Pan-Sharpened
Ikonos Data ( 1 meter resolution)
A. minimus, A. dirus, A. maculatus
Mae La Camp
Kong Mong Tha Test Site
The largest refugee camp in Thailand
(with > 30,000 population)
Collecting larvae,
… mosquitoes,
… and blood samples.
Most Thai provinces endemic with malaria are border provinces.
MODIS Measurements
AVHRR & MODIS Measurements
TRMM Measurements
Surface Temperature
Vegetation Index
Rainfall
Satellite-Observed Meteorological & Environmental ParametersFor Four Thailand Seasons
Kong Mong Tha Test Site, Kanchanaburi, ThailandKong Mong Tha Test Site, Kanchanaburi, Thailand
Malaria Surveillance Study (Jun 99 – Jan 04) Blood films from ~450 persons/month Microscopy and Polymerase Chain Reaction Larval and adult mosquito collection
Malaria Surveillance Study (Jun 99 – Jan 04) Blood films from ~450 persons/month Microscopy and Polymerase Chain Reaction Larval and adult mosquito collection
In Collaboration with AFRIMS and WRAIRIn Collaboration with AFRIMS and WRAIR
Example: A Small Hamlet
600m
100m
23 houses2 cattle sheds24 clusters of larval habitats
69 adults23 childrens8 cows
1/7 of KMT
Sensitivity Studies and Simulations PerformedSensitivity Studies and Simulations Performed
■ Abundance of larval habitats
■ Access to health care and appropriate treatment
■ Asymptomatic cases
■ Acquired immunity
■ Active and passive case detections
■ Bednets or personal protections
■ Improved dwelling construction
■ Parasite infectivity in mosquitoes
■ Zoonotic prophylaxis
■ Arrival of non-immune populations (such as migrant workers, refugees, foreign military forces)
Using Agent-Based Discrete Event Simulation Model
A. balabacensis, A. minimus, A. maculatus
Rainfall Pattern, Which Drives Malaria Transmission, Varies Significantly from Island to Island
Average Monthly Precipitation for the Major Cities on the 8 Islands 2000-2005
Kalimantan
Java
MalukuSumatra
Timor
Bali
Irian Jaya
Sulawesi
Hindcasting Malaria Cases in Jawa Tengah, IndonesiaActual (red), Modeled (blue), and Hindcast (green) Malaria Cases
Comparison of Kulong Progo and PurworejoACD Cases (blue) with Jawa Tengah PCD Cases (red)
precipitation (scaled)
Kulong Progo + PurworejoJawa Tengah
A. stephensi, A. culicifacies, A. fluviatlis
Malaria in AfghanistanMalaria in Afghanistan
Little public health support is available after three decades of non-
stopped military conflicts and instability. The once successful
vertical malaria control program has long been abandoned.
Wars promote malaria transmission owing to altered environment,
man-made larval habitats, damaged dwellings, tent or outdoor living,
lack of personal protection, non-immune refugees and displaced
populations.
Approximately 14 million people live in endemic areas. It ranks
the 2nd highest in the WHO EMRO region, and 4th highest outside
Africa.
International aids help to establish a Basic Public Health Service
Package, which includes malaria treatment and control.
It is a relatively dry country with frequent sandstorms.
Climate varies according to elevation and location. Kabul (1,795m)
has cold winters and pleasant summers. Jalalabad (550m) is
subtropical. Kandahar (1,006m) is mild year-round.
Daytime temperatures may range from freezing at dawn to ~38°C
at noon. Summer temperatures can be as high as 49°C in the
northern valleys. Midwinter temperatures can be as low as 9°C at
1,980m in the Hindu Kush.
Malaria occurs at altitudes < 2,000m and is most prevalent in
snow-fed river valleys and rice growing areas.
Transmission is seasonal from June to December.
Climate and MalariaClimate and Malaria
Modeling and Predicting Malaria PrevalenceTakhar Province, Afghanistan
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Jan-
04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4
Sep
-04
Nov
-04
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep
-05
Nov
-05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep
-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep
-07
Nov
-07
Actual
Trained
Prediction
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Ja
n-0
4
Ma
r-0
4
Ma
y-0
4
Jul-
04
Se
p-0
4
No
v-0
4
Jan
-05
Ma
r-0
5
Ma
y-0
5
Jul-
05
Se
p-0
5
No
v-0
5
Jan
-06
Ma
r-0
6
Ma
y-0
6
Jul-
06
Se
p-0
6
No
v-0
6
Jan
-07
Ma
r-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Jul-
07
Se
p-0
7
No
v-0
7
Temperature x 0.5
NDVI x 100
Precip x 0.2
Predicted & Actual Malaria Cases for 23 ProvincesJuly – December 2007
![divya.gopinath@nasa.gov arXiv:1912.00289v1 [cs.CV] 1 Dec 2019 · Gopinath, Divya SGT Inc, NASA AMES divya.gopinath@nasa.gov Corina Pasareanu NASA AMES, Carnegie Mellon University](https://static.fdocuments.us/doc/165x107/5fc142313399b519b35b4a72/divyagopinathnasagov-arxiv191200289v1-cscv-1-dec-2019-gopinath-divya-sgt.jpg)
