Post on 16-Aug-2015
Worldfish GFSF 2015 Workplan/Deliverables
Fish to 2050 report: using IMPACT model WorldFish & IFPRI working paper
Q2/2016?
Fish supply and demand modelling projection for Indonesia using the ASIAFISH modelling approach
WorldFish Working Paper
Q3/2015
Spatially-explicit scenarios for aquaculture targets and zoning in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam
WorldFish Working Paper
Q4/2015
Fish to 2050 report with IMPACT model
Fish to 2050 report: technological change, environmental limit, and futures of fish supply
INDONESIA WORK
Fish supply and demand modelling projection for Indonesia using the ASIAFISH/fish sector modelling approach
Vietnam Work
Spatially-explicit scenarios for aquaculture targets and zoning in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam
Modelling with ASIAFISH
Supply: domestic supply + foreign supplySupply = f(output price, input price, other non-price factors)
Import = Armington trade solution
Demand: domestic demand + foreign demand Demand =f (product price, income, other factors)
Export= Armington trade solution
Model closing conditions: Supply == Demand
Asia Fish sector Model Framework
Factor DD/SS Shifters
Factor market
Producer core
Product markets
Consumer core
Product demand shifters
Profit functions, System of output supply and factor demand equations
Supply of imports
Technology, Environment, and policy shifters
Demand for exports
System of consumers demand equations
D S
D S
D SDD: DD from other sectors
(livestock) Trade and exchange
rate policies SS: Import subsidies Taxes Domestic industry
efficiency SS Shifter: Population growth Migration Employment outside
fisheries/aquaculture sector
Population growth
Income growth
International trade
Tariff/ taxes
D S
Scenarios for ASIAFISH model
• Implications of socio-economic growth (income, population)
• Implications of factor prices (e.g., fertilizer, labor)
• Trade implications (e.g., import prices, export prices, exchange rate)
• Climate change, technological change