06 Samuel Carrara Feem / Energy: Scenario and Challenges

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Presentation from 30/11-2/12/2012 Roma Cleanweb Hackathon, see http://italy.cleanweb.co

Transcript of 06 Samuel Carrara Feem / Energy: Scenario and Challenges

Energy: scenario and challenges

Samuel Carrara, PhD

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Cleanweb world tour – Roma Hackathon

November 30th – December 2nd, 2012

Università degli studi Roma Tre, Rome, Italy

Why is energy so important?

1 bn=

6 bn↑

1 / 8

Source: IAC (2007)

Global primary energy demand and supply

Source: WEO (2008)

2 / 8

81% (2011)

Growing energy demand (fossils)

The energy problem

• Energy security

• Sustainability & Climate Change

3 / 8

1653 Billion barrels

(+ 10% compared to 2001)

Proven oil reserves (2011)

Source: BP review (2012)

31 Billion barrels

(+ 12% compared to 2001)

4 / 8

Source: WEO (2012)

Fossil fuels availability

“The Stone Age didn’t end because of a shortage of stones: the oil

age won't end because of a shortage of oil.” (Sheik Yemani, Saudi OilMinister, 1973)

5 / 8

Fossil Fuel

Burning

30Billion tons

Go inbillion tons added

every year15 billion tons added

every year

CO2 Pre-industrial levels: 280 ppm

Current levels (2005): 380 ppm

Concentration increase 8,000 years before industrialization: 20 ppm

Concentration increase since 1750: 100 ppm

Sustainability & Climate Change

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≈8 ≈7 = 15

Ocean

+

800billion tons carbon

Go in every year

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= billion tons Go out

Land Biosphere (net)

+

3000 billion tons CO2

every year

Courtesy of Rob Socolow

Since 1750 anthropogenic CO2

emissions have come from:

2/3 fossil fuels

1/3 land use change

385 ppm 435 ppme

6 / 8

Emissions / temperature correlation

Source: Reale (2007)

“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since themid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase inanthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations” (IPCC, 2007)

7 / 8

Temperature increase projections

Source: Connor (2009)8 / 8