Energy: scenario and challenges

Samuel Carrara, PhD

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Cleanweb world tour – Roma Hackathon

November 30th – December 2nd, 2012

Università degli studi Roma Tre, Rome, Italy

Why is energy so important?

1 bn=

6 bn↑

1 / 8

Source: IAC (2007)

Global primary energy demand and supply

Source: WEO (2008)

2 / 8

81% (2011)

Growing energy demand (fossils)

The energy problem

• Energy security

• Sustainability & Climate Change

3 / 8

1653 Billion barrels

(+ 10% compared to 2001)

Proven oil reserves (2011)

Source: BP review (2012)

31 Billion barrels

(+ 12% compared to 2001)

4 / 8

Source: WEO (2012)

Fossil fuels availability

“The Stone Age didn’t end because of a shortage of stones: the oil

age won't end because of a shortage of oil.” (Sheik Yemani, Saudi OilMinister, 1973)

5 / 8

Fossil Fuel

Burning

30Billion tons

Go inbillion tons added

every year15 billion tons added

every year

CO2 Pre-industrial levels: 280 ppm

Current levels (2005): 380 ppm

Concentration increase 8,000 years before industrialization: 20 ppm

Concentration increase since 1750: 100 ppm

Sustainability & Climate Change

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≈8 ≈7 = 15

Ocean

+

800billion tons carbon

Go in every year

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The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.

The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.

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= billion tons Go out

Land Biosphere (net)

+

3000 billion tons CO2

every year

Courtesy of Rob Socolow

Since 1750 anthropogenic CO2

emissions have come from:

2/3 fossil fuels

1/3 land use change

385 ppm 435 ppme

6 / 8

Emissions / temperature correlation

Source: Reale (2007)

“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since themid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase inanthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations” (IPCC, 2007)

7 / 8

Temperature increase projections

Source: Connor (2009)8 / 8