30 JUNE – 04 JULY 2014

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

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MAJOR EVENTS Gold off the intraday high and trading sideways ahead of release of the German

inflation and U.S. consumer sentiment data. Euro traded sideways on Friday, quoting

near $1.3614, up 0.01% and US dollar index quoting at 80.24, down 0.04%.

Gold slips as Fed official gives upbeat take on U.S. economy with Fed official calls

weak Q1 economic growth rate an aberration. On another data, the U.S. personal

income increased $58.8 billion or 0.4 percent in May, after surging 0.30% last month,

according to the data released on yesterday by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The

price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent in May, the same increase as in April. The

PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2 percent in May, the same

increase as in April.

COMEX August Gold trades at $1,317.40 a troy ounce, up $0.40 and Silver trades at

$21.083 a troy ounce, down 0.079. Local Gold slipped tracking the weak global cues

amid slightly strong local currency. MCX August contract trades at Rs 27,641, down Rs

24 and Silver July quotes at Rs 44,501, down Rs 135. Indian rupee gained 0.01% at Rs

60.11 mark. Brent crude capped the biggest weekly drop since March as the conflict in Iraq spared

the country’s main oil-producing region.

Iraqi forces held the Baiji refinery, the nation’s largest, after repelling the latest attack

by Islamist militants. Fighting hasn’t spread to the south, home to more than three-

quarters of Iraq’s oil output. Exports from OPEC’s second-largest producer will

accelerate next month, according to Iraq’s oil minister. Iraqi production appears to be

safe for the time being. That makes the market stable.Brent for August settlement

gained 9 cents to close at $113.30 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe

exchange. The volume of all futures traded was 37 percent below the 100-day

average. Prices dropped 1.3 percent this week, the biggest decline since the seven

days ended March 21. WTI for August delivery fell 10 cents to $105.74 a barrel on the

New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices were down 1.4 percent this week. Volume was

50 percent below the average. The U.S. benchmark crude was at a discount of $7.56

to Brent, compared with $7.37 yesterday. Oil exports will witness a big increase, as

recent events didn’t reflect negatively on Iraq’s crude output and exports.

Brent Crude Heads

for Biggest Weekly

Drop Since April.

Copper Cracks

Amid Slow

Demand From

China.

Cracks in Copper are resurfacing although the declines so far have been limited. The

prices of MCX Copper are showing vulnerability to move beyond resistance levels of Rs

422 and 423 for the second day in a row. Domestic prices are also been marred by the

fact that the Chinese demand is slowing down. Financial deals probe on Chinese firms

is rattling the markets.Banks in China are now not coming to support from financing

due to the fact that the metal might have been used as collateral for taking multiple

loans. This has increased the flow of Copper in world markets, while China which is the

largest consumer of Copper has been showing derailment of demand. Meanwhile,

news from Eurozone also imposed negative vibes on Copper. The report from

European commission showed that the consumer confidence declined to a annual rate

of -8 from -7.1. The expectations were that the fall would be 7.1. Last night, U.S.

Department of Labor data showed that the number of individuals filing for initial

jobless benefits in the week ending June 21 declined by 2,000 to 312,000 from the

previous week's revised total of 314,000. On MCX, Copper June contract was last

checked at Rs 419.35 per kg, down 0.24%. The prices have tested a high of Rs 421.85

and a low of Rs 418.9 per kg. COMEX Copper futures for September expiry that has the

highest volumes, showed a marginal decline and was trading at $ 3.17 per pound.

Gold Sideways

Ahead Of

Consumer

Sentiment Data.

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

June 30 7:15pm Chicago PMI 63.2 65.5

7:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 1.4% 0.4%

July 01 5:30pm Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

7:15pm Final Manufacturing PMI 57.5 57.5

7:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 55.6 55.4

7:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.5% 0.2%

7:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 48.9 47.7

7:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 60.0 60.0

All Day Total Vehicle Sales 16.5M 16.8M

July 02 5:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y 45.5%

5:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 206K 179K

7:30pm Factory Orders m/m -0.1% 0.7%

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 1.7M

8:30pm Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

July 03 6:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 211K 217K

6:00pm Trade Balance -45.1B -47.2B

6:00pm Unemployment Claims 310K 312K

6:00pm Unemployment Rate 6.3% 6.3%

6:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.2%

7:15pm Final Services PMI 61.2

7:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.2 56.3

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage

July 03 All Day Bank Holiday

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

27400 27000 26500 28000 28350 28680

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

43850 42840 42000 45000 46050 47070

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed sideways

movement traded around important

resistance level i.e. 27800 and also

closed around 50% retracement. Now,

if it maintains above 27850 then next

resistance may be seen around 28350.

On other hand if some correction

occured on this bull rally then 38.2%

retracement i.e. 27250 will act as

important support level.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

above 27900 for the targets of 28300-

28500 with stop loss of 27200.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER on daily charts traded in

consolidation phase around its

resistance level i.e. upper band of

channel pattern and it is also a 61.8%

retracement. Now if this bull rally

continues and maintains above 45000

then next important resistance may be

seen around 46400. Contrary 43800

may act as key support and closing

below which may again drag it towards

the next support of 42850.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to buy on dips for target

of 46500, with stop loss of 42800.

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

6315 6175 6010 6550 6680 6805

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

415 409.90 404.20 423 430 435

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper on daily charts showed

bullish movement, took reversal from

weekly trendline and found resistance

of trendline coming from all time

highs i.e. 423. Now, if bullish

movement continues then next

resistance is seen around 423 above

which bull rally may be possible. On

other hand if this range bound

movement continues then again 410-

405 will act as support levels.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy

on dips for the targets of 6500-6600, with

stop loss of 6250.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil still on consolidation

phase after the breakout of

symmetrical triangle pattern and took

resistance of 6500 but unable to hold

above it. Geo political issues in Iraq are

further aiding in bullishness and if

continues then 6550 is seen as near

resistance above which next important

resistance is 6700. Any correction will

find 6300 as key support and closing

below which may result in bearishness.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

on highs, with stop loss of 425 for the

targets of 410-405.

PIVOT TABLE

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