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Wyoming’s Labor Market: A Brief Overview
Doug Leonard, Principal EconomistWyoming Department of Workforce Services, Research & [email protected](307) 473-3811
White House Business Council Roundtable, Casper, WY, June 24, 2011
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Outline
IntroductionWho is Research & PlanningRecent history
Long-term employment trends Labor force dynamics The unemployed New hires
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Who is Research & Planning
R&P is a separate, exclusively statistical entity.
R&P collects, analyzes, and publishes timely and accurate labor market information (LMI) meeting established statistical standards.
LMI makes the labor market more efficient by the public and the public’s representatives with the basis for informed decision making.
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Wyoming’s Labor Market: What Happened? Wyoming lost 20,600 jobs from December 2008
to December 2009 (-9.4%) Wyoming gained 4,000 jobs from December
2009 to December 2010 (+1.4%) Unemployment Insurance benefit payments
reached a record high in 2009 The average annual wage for men decreased in
2009 Many of those who lost jobs in 2009 remained
unemployed through the second quarter of 2010
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Historic Employment Trends
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Wyoming Average Annual Employment, 1939 - 2010 ('000s) and Monthly Employment January - April, 2011
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Jan-11
Apr-11
Date
Wyo
min
g Em
ploy
men
t ('0
00s)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Wyoming Average Annual Employment, 2000 - 2010 ('000s) and Monthly Employment January - April, 2011
235
245
255
265
275
285
295
305
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11Date
Wyo
min
g Em
ploy
men
t ('0
00s)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Overview of Labor Force Dynamics
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Labor Market Churn Although Wyoming employment rose steadily for
17 years (1987 – 2004), a substantial amount of entry and exit occurred
Wyoming imports labor from other states during expansion and subsequently exports labor during contraction
Inflow: People who worked in Wyoming during the current year who did not work in Wyoming during the prior year
Outflow: People who worked in Wyoming during the current year who did not work in Wyoming during the subsequent year
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Inflow and Outflow of Wyoming Workers, 1993 - 2010
-90,000
-80,000
-70,000
-60,000
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Flow
InflowOutflow
Source: Wyoming Wage Records Database
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Net Flow of Wyoming Workers, 1993 - 2009
6,216
4,825
-150
2,590
4,1643,280
5,7514,931
6,188
1,086
5,5136,168
9,917
14,055
10,868
-515
-11,923-13,000-12,000-11,000-10,000
-9,000-8,000-7,000-6,000-5,000-4,000-3,000-2,000-1,000
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
Net
Wor
ker F
low
Source: Wyoming Wage Records Database
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The Unemployed
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Re-Employment Rate of Wyoming UI Claimants by Sex, 2005 - 2009
77.2%
75.7%75.1%
64.6%
57.8%
73.2%74.0%
73.2%
67.2%
59.8%
55.0%
57.5%
60.0%
62.5%
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
72.5%
75.0%
77.5%
80.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Year Initial Claim Filed
Re-
Empl
oym
ent R
ate
Males Females
Source: Wyoming Unemployment Insurance Microdata
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Distribution of 2009 Unemployment Insurance Claimants by Educational Attainment
7, 0.0%
25,779, 65.2%
3,458, 8.7%
2,800, 7.1% 596, 1.5%6,898, 17.4%
Less Than High School High School or GED Associate's DegreeBachelor's Degree Master's Degree or Greater Unknown
Source: Wyoming Unemployment Insurance Microdata
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Re-Employment Rates of Wyoming UI Claimants by Educational Attainment, 2005 - 2009
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Year Initial Claim Filed
Re-
Empl
oym
ent R
ate
Less Than High School High School Associates DegreeBachelors Degree Masters Degree or Greater
Source: Wyoming Unemployment Insurance Microdata
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Re-Employment Rates of Wyoming UI Claimants by Industry, 2005 - 2009
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Year Initial Claim Filed
Re-
Empl
oym
ent R
ate
Natural Resources & Mining Construction Retail TradeLeisure & Hospitality State & Local Government
Source: Wyoming Unemployment Insurance Microdata
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Proportion Out of State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants, 2000-2011 (Normalized)
7%8%9%
10%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%21%22%23%24%25%26%27%28%Ja
n-00
Apr-0
0Ju
l-00
Oct-0
0Ja
n-01
Apr-0
1Ju
l-01
Oct-0
1Ja
n-02
Apr-0
2Ju
l-02
Oct-0
2Ja
n-03
Apr-0
3Ju
l-03
Oct-0
3Ja
n-04
Apr-0
4Ju
l-04
Oct-0
4Ja
n-05
Apr-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct-0
5Ja
n-06
Apr-0
6Ju
l-06
Oct-0
6Ja
n-07
Apr-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct-0
7Ja
n-08
Apr-0
8Ju
l-08
Oct-0
8Ja
n-09
Apr-0
9Ju
l-09
Oct-0
9Ja
n-10
Apr-1
0Ju
l-10
Oct-1
0Ja
n-11
Date
% O
ut o
f Sta
te C
ontin
ued
Claim
ants
% Out of State Claimants12-Month Trailing Moving Average
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Nonresident UI Claimants
Nonresident UI claimants are not included in the calculation of unemployment rates – it’s done by place of residence
For February 2011, if we included the nonresident claimants in the calculation, Wyoming’s unemployment rate would have been 7.1% (seasonally adjusted), and increase of 0.9%
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New Hires
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What is a New Hire?
New Hire: A person who worked for ABC Construction Company in fourth quarter 2009 (2009Q4) who had no prior wage history with ABC Construction Company going back to 1992Q1
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New Hires: Links to Published Data
http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/energy/New_Hires_Wages_4Q.htm http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/energy/New_Hires_Hours_4Q.htm http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/energy/New_Hires_Skills_4Q.htm http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/energy/New_Hires_Turnover_4Q.htm http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/energy/New_Hires_Demographics_4Q.ht
m
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New Hires 1995Q1 - 2010Q4
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
1995
Q1
1995
Q4
1996
Q3
1997
Q2
1998
Q1
1998
Q4
1999
Q3
2000
Q2
2001
Q1
2001
Q4
2002
Q3
2003
Q2
2004
Q1
2004
Q4
2005
Q3
2006
Q2
2007
Q1
2007
Q4
2008
Q3
2009
Q2
2010
Q1
2010
Q4
Date
New
Hire
s
Source: Wyoming Wage Records Database
23Source: Wyoming Wage Records Database and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
NAICS IndustryTotal New
Hires
New Hires Predicted to be Emp. In Next
Qtr.11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting 1,467 99521 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas 9,549 8,28422 Utilities 329 32023 Construction 23,285 14,85731-33 Manufacturing 3,189 2,56842 Wholesale Trade 2,972 2,71244-45 Retail Trade 20,403 15,76548-49 Transportation and Warehousing 4,337 3,45151 Information 1,411 1,25852 Finance and Insurance 1,867 1,75153 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 2,050 1,70154 Professional, Scientific, and Enterprises 4,038 2,96955 Management of Companies and Enterprises 106 7956 Administrative and Support and Waste 10,896 6,12561 Educational Services 7,173 6,43662 Health Care and Social Assistance 12,262 11,18571 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 2,689 2,04672 Accomodation and Food Services 33,548 21,92281 Other Services 4,956 3,75092 Public Administration 5,086 3,891
151,613 112,065
New Hires, 2009Q4 - 2010Q3
Total
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Occupation New HiresMedian Hourly
WageAll New Hires 112,065 $12.00Cashiers (41-2011) 4,557 $8.25 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer (53-3032) 4,492 $17.00 Retail Salespersons (41-2031) 4,435 $9.00
Waiters and Waitresses (35-3031) 4,242 $7.75 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food (35-3021) 3,827 $8.00 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners (37-2012) 3,655 $9.00 Construction Laborers (47-2061) 2,957 $13.77
Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers (37-3011) 2,646 $10.00 All Other Extraction Workers (47-5099) 2,025 $16.00 Cooks, Restaurant (35-2014) 1,771 $9.50
Top Ten Occupations Worked by New Hires 2009Q4 - 2010Q3
Source: Wyoming New Hires Survey
25Source: Wyoming New Hires Survey
Occupation New HiresService
OrientationCritical
ThinkingReading Comp.
Technology Design
Operation and Control
Total 112,065 69.5 75.7 66.3 37.9 59.8Cashiers (41-2011) 4,557 94.0 61.5 58.8 27.9 54.4Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer (53-3032) 4,492 60.8 83.8 66.1 40.4 91.6Retail Salespersons (41-2031) 4,435 93.4 71.1 67.5 31.4 50.0
Waiters and Waitresses (35-3031) 4,242 92.0 60.3 51.7 12.3 39.1Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food (35-3021) 3,827 91.7 60.1 51.4 20.5 54.7Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners (37-2012) 3,655 75.2 43.6 42.1 11.5 30.9Construction Laborers (47-2061) 2,957 32.2 61.0 33.1 30.4 53.4
Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers (37-3011) 2,646 47.3 58.2 31.8 30.9 71.6All Other Extraction Workers (47-5099) 2,025 41.6 73.8 39.1 40.7 81.1Cooks, Restaurant (35-2014) 1,771 60.9 64.2 66.9 23.8 55.0
J ob Skills Defined as "Important" by Employers Adding New Hires, 2009Q4 - 2010Q3
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To Summarize… Wyoming labor market volatility Displaced workers less likely to be working in
the year following layoff Substantial number of UI claimants located out
of state Number of new hires comparable to levels seen
in 1995 Substantial proportion of jobs filled by new hires
require little or no postsecondary education
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Research & Planning
http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi Telephone: (307) 473 – 3807 Mailing Address:
PO Box 2760Casper, WY 82602
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