www.epa.gov/research U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Research and Development
http://www.epa.gov/ord/http://www.epa.gov/ord/ SSWR Research
Priorities
http://www.epa.gov/ord/priorities/waterresources.htm\http://www.epa.gov/ord/priorities/waterresources.htm\
Science Question. What effective systems-based approaches can be
used to identify and manage causes of degraded water resources to
promote protection and recovery. Issue = Nutrients. Narragansett
Bay and Watershed Sustainability Demonstration Project Narragansett
CHRP Meeting. March 21, 2013 The need is to inform governance
decisions, at multiple scales affecting air, land, and water to
achieve more sustainable design solutions
Slide 2
Research Task and Products Boundary Partners = Key Governance
Institutions that have the authority and capacity to influence the
trajectory of ecosystem change need improved, data, information
knowledge delivery to adjust policies needed to achieve more
sustainable systems solutions contributing to reduction in point
and non-point sources of nutrients & co-pollutants affecting
water quality Key Research Outputs & Products Quantitative
models describing past, current and future nutrient fluxes and
associated ecosystem level responses in the Narragansett Bay
watershed and estuary ecosystem Trend analysis of stressors and
ecological responses, particularly nutrients, in the Narragansett
Bay Watershed Outcomes Use of approaches in regulatory an
non-regulatory decision making affecting future trajectory of
ecosystem change Decision Support Applications to inform decisions
affecting nutrient flux and possible changes to systems (e.g.,
ecosystems, communities, and economies) 2 End Users
Slide 3
www.epa.gov/research U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Research and Development
http://www.epa.gov/ord/http://www.epa.gov/ord/ SSWR Research
Priorities
http://www.epa.gov/ord/priorities/waterresources.htm\http://www.epa.gov/ord/priorities/waterresources.htm\
Trends in Nitrogen Loading: Coterminous U.S.A. Compton et al. 2011
Ecology letters Aug;14(8):804-15.Compton et al. 2011 Ecology
letters 5X TN 4X TN Narragansett Bay Vadeboncoeur et al. 2010 15
SSWR 6.1 To manage change, it is important to understand sources of
nitrogen, and how these have changed over time. State of RI
legislature embraced a goal of dramatically reducing landside
nitrogen loading to the Bay 3
Slide 4
Atmospheric deposition of Nitrogen, (CMAQ model) How will NOx
source control will affect Northeastern U.S.
http://gispub4.epa.gov/LES/ 4
Slide 5
Blue area represent flow lines (NHDplus). SSWR 6.1 using 1:100K
NHD to facilitate tech transfer 5
Slide 6
Things accomplished already Use and Refinement of Northeast
SPARROW model TN and TP fluxes to characterize between variation in
lake trophic status Northeast Lakes Flex application for GIS map
server and analysis Doing additional GIS calculations related to
cyanobacteria in lakes & reservoirs Statements of issues and
needs from key Boundary partners (OW, EPA R1, RI DEM, MA DEP)
Coordination with USGS. Some aspects could be scalable to
Northeastern U.S. & subsequently used for U.S. East Coast in
2015 & beyond http://gispub4.epa.gov/LES/
Slide 7
EPA Narragansett Bay Modeling Hydrodynamics FVCOM (Finite
Volume Coastal Ocean Model) Water Quality WASP (Water Quality
Analysis Simulation Program) Point source reduction Future land use
Climate change Shellfish restoration Shellfish Finfish Beaches
Modeling Seagrass extent Light Depth Cumulative seagrass area Blue
area represents the potential seagrass area if its maximum depth
was 3 meters. Ecology Models
Slide 8
We are using the USGS SPARROW model for nutrient loading to the
Bay SPARROW models only total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus
(TP), and gives only annual loads. SCENARIOS Future land use
Shellfish restoration Climate change (temp, precip, wind, SLR, OA)
Photo: The Nature Conservancy in RI Point source reduction Source:
RIDEM Photo: RI Emergency Management Agency
Slide 9
FVCOM (Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model) - Hydrodynamics
Residence times, circulation patterns (collapsed in time/space)
Executed with two modeling setups: EFDC (short-term) and FVCOM
(Longer-term)
Slide 10
EPAs WASP Water Quality Model RIDEM Fish seine stations NH 3,
DO, chl a, TSS WASP can model individual nutrient species and
multiple phytoplankton groups Models are integrated with available
data www.epa.gov/athens/wwqtsc/html/wasp.html
Slide 11
Seagrass Modeling TN, TP Loading Water Quality Affecting
Optical Properties Chlorophyll-a CDOM Particulates TN, TP Conc.
Depth of Colonization Objective Potential Seagrass Habitat Inputs
from Watershed The relationship between nutrient inputs (N) and
light quality/quantity for the seagrass Zostera marina mediated
through the relationship between N and chl a (phytoplankton) is
being developed. Light Depth Cumulative seagrass area Blue area
represents the potential seagrass area if its maximum depth was 3
meters.
Slide 12
Using a food web-based model to examine the response to
nutrient inputs effect of shellfish on nitrogen We are developing:
1) stressor-response relationships between eutrophication measures
(nutrient load/DO) and benthic condition, and 2) population models
for fish and shellfish
Slide 13
Working with Model Results Valuation of shellfish, finfish, and
beaches Can we develop a formal application of existing data to
quantify uncertainty and compare the trade-offs between bias and
variance among models? We are examining information- theoretic
inference and bayesian techniques. Narragansett Beach: 100
visitors/day x $49/visit (parking, food, other) = $49,000