World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water
www.wmo.int
WMO
2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large-scale Catastrophes
Session 2: Natural hazard awareness and disaster risk reduction education
The role of the WMO in natural hazard awareness and disaster risk reduction education;
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme
September 24, 2009, Bangkok, Thailand
Potential role of Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services within more comprehensive National Disaster Risk Management Programmes
Risk TransferRisk Identification
Hazard databases
Hazard statistics
Climate forecasting and trend analysis
Exposed assets & vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning
MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)
CAT insurance & bonds
Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives
Other emerging products
Risk Reduction
Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training
Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration
2
1
3
Monitoring and Evaluation of
national practices
Identification and Documentation of
Good Practices and learning Lessons
Development of Guidelines based on
Lessons Learnt
National and Regional Projects
•Implementation of projects,
Systematically linking know-how to capacity development projects
Training, Institutional Capacities Building,
sharing good practices and lessons learnt linked to projects
Risk TransferRisk Identification
Hazard databases
Hazard statistics
Climate forecasting and trend analysis
Exposed assets & vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning
MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)
CAT insurance & bonds
Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives
Other emerging products
Risk Reduction
Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training
Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment
Systematic documentation of good practices and guidelines initiated
Standardization of Hazard Data, metadata and analysis tools
– Guidelines for floods, droughts, tropical cyclones and storm surges and other meteorological hazards underway
Initiatives underway for standardization of hazard information
for Floods, Droughts, Meteorological Hazards
FLOOD
1. Flood hazard data and mapping guidelines (underway)
2. Drought assessment and mapping (underway)
3. Storm Surge hazard data and mapping (underway)
4. Other meteorological hazards data and mapping guidelines (initiated (March 2009) • Severe Weather, Heat waves, Tropical
Cyclones
5. Tools to assess evolution of hazard trends in the future …(next step)
First Implementation of Flood and Drought Hazard Mapping underway in South Eastern Europe (with UNDP, World Bank, ISDR)) Partnership Development Projects with other UN Agencies
Risk TransferRisk Identification
Hazard databases
Hazard statistics
Climate forecasting and trend analysis
Exposed assets & vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning
MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)
CAT insurance & bonds
Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives
Other emerging products
Risk Reduction
Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training
Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Reduction
Meteorological
Hydrological
Geological
Marine
Health (etc.)
COORDINATION AMONGNATIONAL SERVICES
feedback
feedback
Community Preparedness
warnings
National to local governments
supported by DRR plans, legislation
and coordination mechanisms
warnings
feedback
What is an Effective EWS?
warnings
preventiveactions
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2
3
4
5
5
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5
Synthesis & guidelines developed from four “good practices”
Capacity development in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems with Focus on Institutional Coordination,
Cooperation and NMHSs
Guidelines(Section 3)
Synthesis of Good Practices in Early Warning Systems and Role of NMHS in Multi-hazard EWS
(Section 4)
Bangladesh Cyclone
Preparedness Programme
(Annex I)
Cuba Tropical Cyclone Early
Warning System
(Annex II)
French “Vigilance System”
(Annex III)
Shanghai Multi-Hazard
Emergency Preparedness Programme
(Annex IV)
first document of a series of guidelines that the WMO is developing in the field of Early Warning Systems.
Systematic documentation of good practices in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems
• Four good practices in Multi-Hazard EWS Documented
Cuba, France, China/Shanghai, Bangladesh
• Guidelines on “Capacity Development in Multi-Hazard EWS with focus on Institutional Coordination and NMHS,” nearly finalized
• Training package being published (Springer Verlag 2010)
Focus: Institutional cooperation and coordinationTargeting: Directors of Disaster Risk Management and National
Metrological and Hydrological Services Programme:• Training on good practices in EWS• Training in guidelines on « Capacity development in Multi-
Hazard Early Warning Systems with Focus on Institutional Coordination, Cooperation”
• Interactive discussions to assess participating countries capacities, gaps and needs
• Opportunities for regional cooperation • Outcomes are linked to development projects
Training workshops on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (2009-2010)
Training workshops on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (2009-2010)
South East Europe
Southern and Eastern Africa
Central America and the
CarribeansSouth East Asia
Risk TransferRisk Identification
Hazard databases
Hazard statistics
Climate forecasting and trend analysis
Exposed assets & vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning
MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)
CAT insurance & bonds
Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives
Other emerging products
Risk Reduction
Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training
Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets
Participants: (8 re-insurers, 13 Met Services, WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA)
USER Perspectives:
• Information (data and forecasts):– Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data
– Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other data value-added services (??)
– Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data (for contract design and settlement)
– Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts (portfolio management and forward looking risk analysis)
– Long term trend analysis (long-term market development strategy)
• Technical support and Service delivery
Meteorological Services Perspectives:
• Need for awareness raising among Met services
• Resources, ability and priorities to deliver
• “Commercial” ,“Security” and “Turf” Issues associated with data accessibility
Requirements for Meteorological and Hydrological information to support Financial Risk Transfer
Dec 2007, WMO Headquarters
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html
Systematic documentation of good practices and guidelines initiated
Training Materials to support financial risk transfer markets
WMO/World Bank/WFP will be developing joint report on lesson’s learnt from pilots
Information Service delivery: Experiences of National Meteorological Services for provision of data and information to this market will be
documented (2009-2010)
Progress with Catastrophe (CAT) Insurance / Bond and Weather Risk Management Markets
Drought Risk Management in Ethiopia
Malawi Drought Risk Management
Southeastern Europe Disaster Risk management Project
& Southeastern and Central European Risk Insurance Facility
UK Flood CAT Bond
CAT Bond Markets post Hurricane Andrew
Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility
Pacific Risk Insurance Facility
Indian Agricultural Risk
European Agricultural Risk
Hydro Electric Power Risk Contracts
Wind Power Risk Contracts
Catastrophe Insurance and Bond Markets
Weather Risk Management Markets (ART)
Heating Degree Day Contracts
Developing Tools and Training on Climate Forecasting and Analysis
toolsStatistical analysis of historical data
is only first estimate . Needs for forward looking information to
augment statistical hazard analysis and mapping
Impact of climate on sectors are linked to….
• Changing patterns of hydro-meteorological extremes
– Frequency, severity and location of droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, heat waves, etc
• Accumulation of risk linked to deviations of meteorological and hydrological conditions from normal
– Variations and changes in the onset of seasons, changes in the rainfall amounts and patters, etc.
Emerging Technologies (Weather and Climate Time Scales)
Short- to Medium-Range
WeatherSeasonal Forecasts
Short-Term ClimateLong-Term
Climate
0-14 days months to seasons decades to century
Forward looking risk analysis for improved planning and risk managment
Utilization in the financial risk transfer markets
IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Climate variability and change and their impacts are not uniform
geographically
(IPCC, 2007)
Trends in heavy rainfall
Drou
ghts
Need for production of local climate information…
Highly Resource Intensive!
Trends in Frost and Heat Waves
Global/Regional/National Cooperation Framework For Provisions of Climate Services
Four Major Thrusts: • Understanding of information needs of at-risk sectors
– Through partnerships (with UN, international and regional agencies)
• Designation and coordination of network of global and regional climate centers – to faciliate provision of forecasting and analysis tools and
information to national centers
• Strengthen observation networks • More targeted climate research
Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs)
Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)
RCC Network Nodes (Pilot)
Global/Regional Network of WMO Designated Climate Centers
Washington
Montreal
Exeter
ECMWF
Toulouse
Moscow
Pretoria
Melbourne
BeijingSeoul
Tokyo
Lead Centre for SVSLRF
Lead Centre for LRFMME
SVSLRF: Standardized Verification System for Long Range ForecastsLRFMME: Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
CLW/CLPA/WCAS
Climate Risk management Project in AfricaWMO/World Bank Project in Africa
Funded by GFDRR
• Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda
• Objectives: Development of climate information based on observations and latest climate tools and forecasting technologies
• Sectors: Agriculture and water resource management
• Timeline of data: Different climate scales up to 20 years:
• Partners– National: NMHS, sectors representatives – International/Regional: World Bank, – Technical: GlobalClimate Centers (US, UK,
ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD)• Status: Project was launch on June 21• World Bank project manager: Amal Talbi-Jordan
For more information please contact:Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeWorld Meteorological OrganizationTel. 41.22.730.8006Fax. 41.22.730.8023Email. [email protected]
http://www.wmo.int/disasters
Thank You
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