Document of
The World Bank
Report No: RES18682
RESTRUCTURING PAPER
ON A
PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING
OF
SÃO PAULO METRO LINE 4 (PHASE 2)
LOAN NO. 78690-BR
MAY 4, 2010
TO THE
STATE OF SAO PAULO, BRAZIL
WITH THE GUARANTEE OF THE FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF BRAZIL
APRIL 13, 2016
Transport and ICT Global Practice
Latin America and the Caribbean Region
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their
official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.
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Regional Vice President: Jorge Familiar
Country Director: Martin Raiser
Senior Global Practice Director Pierre Guislain
Practice Manager: Aurelio Menendez
Task Team Leader: Georges B. Darido
Bianca Bianchi Alves
BRAZIL
SÃO PAULO METRO LINE 4 (PHASE 2)
CONTENTS
A. SUMMARY …………………………………………………………………..2
B. PROJECT STATUS ……………………………………………………………3
C. PROPOSED CHANGES………………………………………………………..7
D. ANNEXES
Annex I Revised Result Indicators…………………………………………..7
Annex II Tables of Economic Analysis………………………………………15
1
DATA SHEET
Brazil
SÃO PAULO METRO LINE 4 (PHASE 2)
LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN
Transport & ICT
Report No: RES18682
Basic Information
Project ID: P106390 Lending Instrument: Specific Investment Loan
Regional Vice President: Jorge Familiar Original EA Category: Full Assessment (A)
Country Director: Martin Raiser Current EA Category: Full Assessment (A)
Senior Global Practice
Director: Pierre Guislain Original Approval Date: 04-May-2010
Practice
Manager/Manager: Aurelio Menendez Current Closing Date: 30-Apr-2016
Team Leader(s):
Georges Bianco
Darido,Bianca Bianchi
Alves
Borrower: State of Sao Paulo
Responsible
Agency: Sao Paulo Secretariat of Metropolitan Transport
Restructuring Type
Form Type: Full Restructuring Paper Decision Authority: RVP Decision
Restructuring Level: Level 2 Explanation of
Approval Authority:
Although a Level II
restructuring, this request
involves a Loan Closing Date
extension of 2 or more years
cumulatively beyond the
original Loan Closing Date.
Therefore CD Concurs and
RVP decides.
Financing ( as of 17-Mar-2016 )
Key Dates
Project Ln/Cr/TF Status Approval
Date Signing Date
Effectiveness
Date
Original
Closing Date
Revised
Closing Date
P106390 COFN-
C1230 Effective 15-Nov-2010 15-Nov-2010 15-Nov-2010 30-Jun-2014 30-Apr-2016
P106390 IBRD-78690 Effective 04-May-2010 27-Sep-2010 15-Dec-2010 30-Jun-2014 30-Apr-2016
2
Disbursements (in Millions)
Project Ln/Cr/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelle
d
Disburse
d
Undisbur
sed
%
Disburse
d
P106390 COFN-
C1230 Effective USD 130.00 130.00 0.00 51.68 85.27 40
P106390 IBRD-78690 Effective USD 130.00 130.00 0.00 67.18 62.82 52
Policy Waivers
Does the project depart from the CAS/CPF in content or in other significant
respects? Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Does the project require any policy waiver(s)? Yes [ ] No [ X ]
A. Summary of Proposed Changes
This restructuring paper is to extend the Loan Closing Date from April 30, 2016 to February 28, 2018 in
response to the Borrower request submitted on August 7, 2015. The proposed 22-month extension of the
Closing Date is the time necessary to substantially achieve the Project objectives and fully disburse the
US$130 million Loan (currently 52% disbursed, US$62.8 million remaining). If accepted, it would be the
second extension for this Project for a cumulative total of 44 months.
Change in Implementing Agency Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change in Project's Development Objectives Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change in Results Framework Yes [ X ] No [ ]
Change in Safeguard Policies Triggered Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change of EA category Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Other Changes to Safeguards Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change in Legal Covenants Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Yes [ X ] No [ ]
Cancellations Proposed Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change to Financing Plan Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change in Disbursement Arrangements Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change in Disbursement Estimates Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change to Components and Cost Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change in Institutional Arrangements Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change in Financial Management Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Change in Procurement Yes [ X ] No [ ]
Change in Implementation Schedule Yes [ X ] No [ ]
Other Change(s) Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Appraisal Summary Change in Economic and Financial Analysis Yes [ X ] No [ ]
3
Appraisal Summary Change in Technical Analysis Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Appraisal Summary Change in Social Analysis Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Appraisal Summary Change in Environmental Analysis Yes [ ] No [ X ]
Appraisal Summary Change in Risk Assessment Yes [ ] No [ X ]
B. Project Status
The São Paulo Metro Line 4 (Phase 2) Project was approved on May 4, 2010 and became effective on
December 15, 2010. The Project Development Objective (PDO) is: (a) to improve the quality of service
provided to the urban transport users in the area of influence of the new Line 4 stations (São Paulo-
Morumbi, Fradique Coutinho, Oscar Freire, Higienópolis-Mackenzie and Vila Sônia) and (b) to facilitate
the integration between metro and bus at those stations. The Project will add five stations to the existing
Line 4 to achieve an extension of 12.8km from the expanded center of the city to the west, and is expected
to cost approximately US$980 million. The Project is co-financed by the State of São Paulo (the
Borrower), IBRD, JBIC and the private concessionaire already operating the line.
The basic engineering designs were completed in 2011 and two procurement processes for civil works
were issued using ICB in 2012, in a very competitive process with around 36% discount of the price
estimated by SP Metro. Project implementation was satisfactory until October 2015 with the delivery of
one station (Fradique Coutinho), and despite delays in project designs and construction, the project
objectives seemed achievable. However, by December 2014 the construction had essentially stopped. The
contract was terminated by Metro in September 2015 and a new bid was published in November 2015. An
extension of the implementation is required because there have been significant delays in implementation
since December 2014 which cannot not be recovered. SP Metro is now rebidding the remaining civil
works through an international competitive process expected to be concluded by May 2016.
Despite delays and cost increases, the implementation progress was recently upgraded to Moderately
Satisfactory as the Borrower presented an acceptable Action Plan to resume works and is following up on
that plan. The Project's objectives remain fully achievable and the only proposed change to the original
results framework is a revision of the target dates.
C. Proposed Changes
Development Objectives/Results
Project Development Objectives
Original PDO
The objectives of the Project are: (a) to improve the quality of service provided to the urban transport users
in the area of influence of the new Line 4 stations (São Paulo-Morumbi, Fradique Coutinho, Oscar Freire,
Higienópolis-Mackenzie and Vila Sônia), and (b) to facilitate the integration between metro and bus at
those stations.
Change in Project's Development Objectives
Change in Results Framework
Explanation:
The dates for the results framework were updated based on the new schedule of the project.
Financing
4
Change in Loan Closing Date(s)
Explanation:
The Project needs to be extended because civil works, the main component of this Project, have been
delayed and the contracts were canceled. The new main procurement process was published in November
2015 and the new contracts are expected to be signed only by May/2016. As a consequence, the Bank's
loan will not be disbursed much further before the current Closing Date of April 30, 2016, except for an
ongoing systems contract and emergency contracts to control groundwater levels in partially built stations.
Ln/Cr/T
F Status
Original Closing
Date
Current Closing
Date
Proposed Closing
Date
Previous Closing
Date(s)
COFN-
C1230 Effective 30-Jun-2014 30-Apr-2016 28-Feb-2018 30-Jun-2014
IBRD-
78690 Effective 30-Jun-2014 30-Apr-2016 28-Feb-2018 30-Jun-2014
Other Change(s)
Change in Procurement
Explanation:
The civil works contracts awarded were canceled, so a new procurement had to be initiated. Civil works
will be contracted under one bidding process, and permanent way (tracks) under a different bidding
process. The reason for the separation was that detailed design for civil works were completed, whereas
permanent way (tracks) scope includes contracting detailed design.
Change in Implementation Schedule
Explanation:
An extension of the implementation is required because there have been significant delays in
implementation since December 2014 which cannot not be recovered. SP Metro is now rebidding the
remaining civil works through an international competitive process expected to be concluded by May
2016. Therefore, there will be very little physical progress or financial disbursements from the Bank’s loan
before then.
Appraisal Summary
Appraisal Summary Change in Economic and Financial Analysis
Explanation:
A. SUMMARY
1. The Project Appraisal Document (PAD) for the São Paulo Metro Line 4 (Phase 2) Project was
published on March 25, 2010. Since then, the expected number of passengers’ boardings for Phase 2
stations has varied substantially, decreasing from 96.8 to 59.3 million passengers/day, as can be seen in the
new demand indicators below.
2. This change in demand values can be attributed to two main factors: i) demand estimates from
PAD had been based on the 1997 OD Survey and related socioeconomic projections; this new data reflects
the updated model with 2007 OD Data and ii) estimates did not fully consider the impacts of Line 5
opening into the demand of Line 4. The free integration between Line 5 and the suburban bus system
impacts boardings at Vila Sonia station. Some passengers that would prefer to take line 4 would still use
Line 5 because of this fare integration, and integrate physically through CPTM Line 9 and Pinheiros
station. Although this does not affect overall demand for Line 4, it changes the distribution of boardings
among stations.
5
3. This new situation requires an update to the Economic Analysis carried out in the PAD. In the
previous analysis, a conservative hypothesis was taken into consideration; potential metro users would
shift to buses and rail as a counterfactual scenario. This time, however, given the important participation of
private vehicles (car), benefits associated with those were included. São Paulo Metro (Implementing
Agency) has revised the transport model and provided the new demand indicators, including the induced
change in private vehicles users (car).
4. The base scenario considered the demand for Line 4 (Yellow Line) Vila Sonia-Luz in 2018
(stations Morumbi, Oscar Freire and Higienópolis/Mackenzie), and in 2020 with the extension until Vila
Sonia Station, and included the Capao Redondo-Largo Treze segment of Line 5 (Lilac Line). The review
of the transport demand and economics study involved the following activities: a) network simulation
review; b) review of investment flows as reported by the PMU; and c) calculation of the internal rate of
return considering updated unit costs and operational parameters of the transport system.
5. The methodology consisted of comparing the situation with and without Project and quantifying
the benefits due to time savings for users of transport modes, operating cost savings for all modes, road
maintenance cost savings, accident savings, air pollution savings against the investment and operating
costs. The demand for each mode was determined using a demand model which estimated the passenger-
hours and passenger-km saved by mode with the Project for without and with scenarios (refer to Table 4).
An incremental analysis of Phase 2 investments was conducted. Only incremental benefits and costs were
included; benefits associated with Fradique Coutinho station (inaugurated in 2014) were not considered, as
well as all sunk costs.
6. Values of travel time savings per mode of transportation were updated; as in 2010 PAD, it was
assumed that home-to-work trips and other purposes were 33% of the average hourly income updated to
2016 and for business trips a 160% factor was used. It was also assumed that car users had a 2.38 higher
value of time than bus users.
7. As per the Technical note from March 2016, it was considered a long-term growth rate of 3% as a
rough estimated for developing countries as a discount rate. Given the current economic crisis in Brazil, a
sensitivity analysis was developed to estimate more conservative growth rates, starting from 1%.
Additionally, the discount rate utilized to calculate net present value for the project and Benefit to cost
ratios was set to 6%.
8. Finally, updated investments were provided by PMU, and all sunk costs were excluded of the
analysis. For consistency, both investments and value of time considerations used the same exchange rate
used in the PAD.
B. DEMAND ANALYSIS
9. An incremental analysis of Phase 2 investments was conducted, excluding both sunk costs and
benefits already accrued.
10. Value of time was updated for each mode. The new values are included in the Table 9-1. Car value
of time was considered to be 2.38 times the bus value of time, based on the relationship between both
modes found in similar projects.
11. The new trip distribution by purpose is shown in Table 3.
12. The new demand for the peak hour situation can be summarized as showed in Table 4, according
to the new values provided by Metrô de São Paulo. Although the expected demand for metro and bus
services has raised significantly in the new forecast, the net change for both modes has decreased in this
new situation when compared to the analysis for the PAD 2010.
C. METR O ECONOMIC COSTS
13. Total Investment Costs estimations for Phase 2 resulted in a total of US$ 415 million (after
excluding expected tax discounts). The new yearly disbursements are shown in Table 5.
14. Using the same depreciation assumptions as in the original analysis, investments amounted to US$
207.8 million for Metro Line 4 after a useful life of 32 years.
E. ECONOMIC COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
15. Besides the above mentioned changes, all other circumstances in the Economic Analysis were
6
considered to remain invariable.
16. The Project flows are presented in Table 7. The economic internal rate of return (EIRR) of 9,37%
was obtained for incremental investment of Phase 2 Line 4. The rate is higher than the 7.57% obtained for
phase 2 alone from the 2010 PAD. The main reason for this change can be attributed to the fact that
although demand estimates had decreased for overall project, the incremental investment for Phase 2 (i.e.
excluding sunk costs) is also lower. Moreover, in this analysis a social discount rate was used, as per
Banks technical notes. Finally, net present value for the project and Benefit to cost ratios are also
calculated with a discount rate of 6%.
F. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
17. A sensitivity analysis was conducted where effects on the rate of return were tested from changes
in the social discount rate, demand estimates, costs and values of time of selected items referred to the base
case.
18. The base case accounts for 6% discount rate and a 3% growth rate during the project life cycle.
Social discount rates from 1 to 6% were tested, given the instability of economy in Brazil. The EIRR
ranges from 4.93% (with assumption of 1% growth rate) to 15.87% (with assumption of 6% growth rate).
19. Additionally, since procurement for the new construction contract is undergoing, investment costs
were allowed to vary from a discount of 25% to 25% increase. A 25% reduction on investment costs,
would increase the EIRR to 11.17%. Procurement for the main contract is undergoing, but last
procurement for civil works had obtained a 30% discount in relation to the base estimate.
20. The remaining tested variables are presented in the Table below 6. Increases is operating costs
have small impact on the overall EIRR. Changes in demand and value of time produce larger changes to
the EIRR. Metro estimates for demand had been generally conservative; demand is likely however to
remain lower with economic crisis. However, measures for increased and densified urban development
around Metro stations, recently approved in the city’s Masterplan, will likely produce increases in demand,
a process that has naturally started in the last 10 years with the increase in service capacity.
7
Annex I Revised Result Indicators
Project
Name: SÃO PAULO METRO LINE 4 (PHASE 2) (P106390)
Project
Stage: Restructuring Status: DRAFT
Team
Leader(s)
:
Georges Bianco Darido Requesting
Unit: LCC5C Created by: Bianca Bianchi Alves on 30-Mar-2015
Product
Line: IBRD/IDA
Responsible
Unit: GTI04 Modified by: Hanayo Taguchi on 13-Apr-2016
Country: Brazil Approval FY: 2010
Region: LATIN AMERICA AND
CARIBBEAN
Lending
Instrument: Specific Investment Loan
Project Development Objectives
Original Project Development Objective:
The objectives of the Project are: (a) to improve the quality of service provided to the urban transport users in the area ofinfluence of the new Line 4
stations (São Paulo-Morumbi, Fradique Coutinho, Oscar Freire, Higienópolis-Mackenzie and Vila Sônia), and (b) to facilitate the integration
between metro and bus at those stations.
Results
Core sector indicators are considered: Yes Results reporting level: Project Level
Project Development Objective Indicators
Status Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Actual(Current) End Target
Revised Quality of service objective:
Travel time plus average
waiting time between pairs of
stations (in minutes, at peak
Minutes Value 55.00 51.00 40.00
Date 30-Dec-2009 28-Mar-2016 28-Feb-2018
Comment The indicator of
8
hour) 20 minutes will
be achieved.
Quality of service objective:
Travel time plus average
waiting time between pairs of
stations (in minutes, at peak
hour)
Minutes Value 55.00 55.00 20.00
Date 21-Dec-2009 30-Sep-2013 30-Apr-2016
Comment
Revised a. Vila Sonia - Luz
Minutes Value 55.00 51.00 40.00
Sub Type Date 30-Dec-2009 28-Mar-2016 28-Feb-2018
Breakdown Comment The indicator of
20 minutes will
be achieved.
a. Vila Sonia - Luz
Minutes Value 55.00 46.00 20.00
Sub Type Date 30-Dec-2009 21-Sep-2015 30-Apr-2016
Breakdown Comment
Revised b. Fradique Coutinho - Luz
Minutes Value 26.00 11.00 11.00
Sub Type Date 30-Dec-2009 28-Mar-2016 28-Feb-2018
Breakdown Comment The indicator of
10 minutes will
be achieved in
2019.
b. Fradique Coutinho - Luz
Minutes Value 26.00 9.00 10.00
Sub Type Date 30-Dec-2009 21-Sep-2015 30-Apr-2016
Breakdown Comment
Revised c. Higienopolis/Mackenzie -
Luz
Minutes Value 13.00 26.00 6.00
Sub Type Date 30-Dec-2009 28-Mar-2016 28-Feb-2018
Breakdown Comment The indicator of
9
5 minutes will
be achieved in
2019.
c. Higienopolis/Mackenzie -
Luz
Minutes Value 13.00 13.00 5.00
Sub Type Date 30-Dec-2009 21-Sep-2015 30-Apr-2016
Breakdown Comment
Revised Integration objective:
Percentage of 5 new stations
integrated with bus lines
Percentage Value 0.00 64.00 91.00
Date 21-Dec-2009 28-Mar-2016 28-Feb-2018
Comment The indicator of
100% will be
achieved in
2019.
Integration objective:
Percentage of 5 new stations
integrated with bus lines
Percentage Value 0.00 0.00 100.00
Date 21-Dec-2009 30-Sep-2014 30-Apr-2016
Comment
Revised Accessibility objective: Total
annual passenger boardings in
new stations (both directions,
in millions)
Number Value 0.00 0.00 0.00
Date 21-Dec-2009 28-Mar-2016 28-Feb-2018
Comment There was a
revision of
demand target
given the
updates of the
transport model,
the current
operational plan
and the low
integration with
the interurban
bus system.
10
Accessibility objective: Total
annual passenger boardings in
new stations (both directions,
in millions)
Number Value 0.00 0.00 47.00
Date 21-Dec-2009 30-Sep-2014 30-Apr-2016
Comment
Marked for
Deletion
a. Vila Sonia
Number Value 0.00 0.00 47.00
Sub Type Date 30-Dec-2009 21-Sep-2015 30-Apr-2016
Breakdown Comment
Revised b. Morumbi
Number Value 0.00 0.00 8.50
Sub Type Date 30-Dec-2009 28-Mar-2016 28-Feb-2018
Breakdown Comment There was a
revision of
demand target
given the
updates of the
transport model,
the current
operational plan
and the low
integration with
the interurban
bus system.
b. Morumbi
Number Value 0.00 0.00 17.10
Sub Type Date 30-Dec-2009 21-Sep-2015 30-Apr-2016
Breakdown Comment
Revised c. Fradique Coutinho
Number Value 0.00 4.00 3.90
Sub Type Date 30-Dec-2009 28-Mar-2016 28-Feb-2018
Breakdown Comment There was a
revision of
11
demand target
given the
updates of the
transport model,
the current
operational plan
and the low
integration with
the interurban
bus system.
c. Fradique Coutinho
Number Value 0.00 4.00 10.60
Sub Type Date 30-Dec-2009 21-Sep-2015 30-Apr-2016
Breakdown Comment
Revised d. Oscar Freire
Number Value 0.00 0.00 7.20
Sub Type Date 30-Dec-2009 28-Mar-2016 28-Feb-2018
Breakdown Comment There was a
revision of
demand target
given the
updates of the
transport model,
the current
operational plan
and the low
integration with
the interurban
bus system.
d. Oscar Freire
Number Value 0.00 0.00 10.80
Sub Type Date 30-Dec-2009 21-Sep-2015 30-Apr-2016
Breakdown Comment
12
Revised e. Higienopolis/Mackenzie
Number Value 0.00 0.00 9.90
Sub Type Date 30-Dec-2009 28-Mar-2016 28-Feb-2018
Breakdown Comment There was a
revision of
demand target
given the
updates of the
transport model,
the current
operational plan
and the low
integration with
the interurban
bus system.
e. Higienopolis/Mackenzie
Number Value 0.00 0.00 11.30
Sub Type Date 30-Dec-2009 21-Sep-2015 30-Apr-2016
Breakdown Comment
Intermediate Results Indicators
Status Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Actual(Current) End Target
Revised Cumulative % of completion of
Vila Sônia Tunnel
Number Value 0.00 9.00 77.00
Date 21-Dec-2009 28-Mar-2016 28-Feb-2018
Comment This number was
revised based on
the new
methodology to
calculate physical
progress.
The indicator of
100% will be
achieved in
2019.
Cumulative % of completion of
Vila Sônia Tunnel
Number Value 0.00 29.00 100.00
Date 21-Dec-2009 21-Sep-2015 30-Apr-2016
13
Comment
Revised cumulative % of completion of
Vila Sônia Station
Number Value 0.00 14.00 76.00
Date 21-Dec-2009 28-Mar-2016 28-Feb-2018
Comment The indicator of
100% will be
achieved in
2019.
cumulative % of completion of
Vila Sônia Station
Number Value 0.00 14.00 100.00
Date 21-Dec-2009 21-Sep-2015 30-Apr-2016
Comment
Revised cumulative % of completion of
Vila Sônia yard
Number Value 0.00 36.00 100.00
Date 21-Dec-2009 28-Mar-2016 28-Feb-2018
Comment
cumulative % of completion of
Vila Sônia yard
Number Value 0.00 35.00 100.00
Date 21-Dec-2009 21-Sep-2015 30-Apr-2016
Comment
Revised cumulative % of completion of
existing stations (finalization)
Number Value 0.00 55.00 100.00
Date 21-Dec-2009 28-Mar-2016 28-Feb-2018
Comment This number was
revised based on
the new
methodology to
calculate physical
progress.
cumulative % of completion of
existing stations (finalization)
Number Value 0.00 63.75 100.00
Date 21-Dec-2009 21-Sep-2015 30-Apr-2016
14
Comment
Revised cumulative % of completion of
systems
Number Value 0.00 19.00 73.00
Date 21-Dec-2009 28-Mar-2016 28-Feb-2018
Comment This number was
revised based on
the new
methodology to
calculate physical
progress.
The indicator of
100% will be
achieved in
2019.
cumulative % of completion of
systems
Number Value 0.00 23.72 100.00
Date 21-Dec-2009 21-Sep-2015 30-Apr-2016
Comment
15
Annex II Tables of Economic Analysis
Table 1: Sao Paulo Line 4 Total Annual Boardings,
both directions, per station (in million passengers)
Stations
PAD
(2010)
New
(2018) New (2020)
Vila Sonia 47 0 26.5
Morumbi 17.1 8.5 9.3
Fradique Coutinho 10.6 3.9 5.5
Oscar Freire 10.8 7.2 7.4
Higienópolis/Mackenzie 11.3 9.9 10.6
Totals 96.8 29.5 59.3 Source: SP Metro Planning Department, based on the Transport Model updated with the 2007 Origin and
Destination Matrix
Table 2: Value of Time Distribution (US$)
Travel Purpose Metro Bus Rail Car
Home to Work 2.49 1.89 1.25 4.49
Business 17.17 13.05 8.58 31.06
Other 2.49 1.89 1.25 4.49
Table 3: Travel Purpose Distribution (%)
Travel Purpose Metro Bus Rail Car
Home to Work 63.1 58.7 74.8 47.4
Business 10.8 13.3 6.9 19
Other 26 28 18.3 33.6
Table 4: Variation of Peak Hour Indicators for Tested Scenarios
Travel Purpose Metro Bus Rail Car
Passenger Trips
- Phase 1 Only 758,059 2,427,344 385,072 1,371,292
- Phase 1 and 2 790,557 2,396,319 389,898 1,370,590
- Net change Phase 2 32,498 -31,025 4,826 701
Pass-Km
- Without Project 5,043,467 15,201,423 6,534,085 16,083,594
- Phase 1 and 2 5,258,827 14,721,701 6,718,349 16,050,547
- Net change Phase 2 142,227 -167,217 31,586 19,587
Pass-Hour
- Without Project 126,165 901,815 141,340 651,022
16
- Phase 1 Only 127,699 884,864 144,435 650,370
- Phase 1 and 2 131,095 874,626 145,128 648,795
- Net change Phase 2 3,395 -10,238 693 1,575
Speed (Km/h)
- Phase 1 Only 40.07 16.83 46.30 24,71
- Phase 1 and 2 40.11 16.83 46.29 24,74
- Net change Phase 2 -0,05 -0,01 0,00 -0,03
Source: SP Metro Planning Department, based on the Transport Model updated with the 2007 Origin and
Destination Matrix
Table 5: Investment Components for Line 4 (thousands US$)
Year Cost of Investment
Phase 2
2016 45,276
2017 144,734
2018 190,308
2019 35,655
Sum 415,974
Table 6: Sensitivity Analysis
Scenario Attribute Test Alternative EIRR % a
a
NPV
(US$
Millions)
B/C Ratio
Base Case Discount Rate
6%
9.37%
$439.31 1.34
10% ($49.09) 0.95
15% ($257.27) 0.66
Growth
(Discount
Rate = 6%)
Growth
1% 4.93% ($107.77) 0.92
2% 7.18% $134.70 1.10
3% 9.37% $439.31 1.34
4% 11.54% $823.47 1.64
5% 13.70% $1,309.70 2.02
6% 15.87% $1,927.20 2.50
Benefits
(Discount
Rate = 6%)
Demand
10% reduction 8.11% $267.07 1.21
10% increase 10.56% $611.55 1.48
20% increase 11.71% $783.79 1.61
30% increase 12.82% $956.02 1.75
Value of Time
10% increase 10.49% $601.26 1.47
10% reduction 8.19% $277.36 1.22
30% reduction 5.60% ($46.54) 0.96
50% reduction 2.47% ($370.44) 0.71
Operating Costs
10% increase 9.38% $441.08 1.34
10% reduction 9.36% $437.54 1.34
50% reduction 9.30% $430.47 1.34
17
100% reduction 9.24% $421.63 1.33
Costs
(Discount
Rate = 6%)
Construction Costs 25% increase 7.75% $265.07 1.18
25% reduction 11.71% $613.55 1.55
18
Table 7: Economic Evaluation (Base case, in Thousands of US$)
TOTAL BENEFIT
(A)
INVESTMENT (-)
taxes(B)
TOTAL COSTS
(B+C)
NET BENEFITS
A-(C+D)
TRAVEL TIME
SAVINGS
OPERATING
COST
SAVINGS
MAINTENAN
CE COST
SAVINGS
BUS
MANAGING
COST
SAVINGS
ACCIDENT
REDUCTION
AIR
POLLUTION
SAVINGS
WAGES
LABOR
EXPENSES
OTHERS
COST
TOTAL COST
(C )
1 2,016 - - - - - - - 97,082 - - - 97,082 (97,082)
2 2,017 - - - - - - - 310,341 - - - 310,341 (310,341)
3 2,018 43,984 699 748 1,422 401 795 48,049 408,060 16,668 34,046 50,714 458,774 (410,725)
4 2,019 45,756 706 755 1,437 405 803 49,862 76,452 16,668 34,046 50,714 127,166 (77,303)
5 2,020 100,035 1,498 1,603 3,050 861 1,704 108,751 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 58,037
6 2,021 104,067 1,513 1,619 3,080 869 1,721 112,869 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 62,155
7 2,022 108,261 1,528 1,635 3,111 878 1,738 117,151 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 66,437
8 2,023 112,623 1,544 1,651 3,142 887 1,756 121,603 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 70,889
9 2,024 117,162 1,559 1,668 3,173 896 1,773 126,231 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 75,517
10 2,025 121,884 1,575 1,685 3,205 905 1,791 131,044 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 80,330
11 2,026 126,796 1,591 1,701 3,237 914 1,809 136,047 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 85,333
12 2,027 131,906 1,606 1,718 3,270 923 1,827 141,250 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 90,536
13 2,028 137,221 1,623 1,736 3,302 932 1,845 146,659 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 95,945
14 2,029 142,751 1,639 1,753 3,335 941 1,864 152,283 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 101,569
15 2,030 148,504 1,655 1,770 3,369 951 1,882 158,132 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 107,418
16 2,031 154,489 1,672 1,788 3,402 960 1,901 164,213 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 113,499
17 2,032 160,715 1,688 1,806 3,436 970 1,920 170,536 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 119,822
18 2,033 167,192 1,705 1,824 3,471 980 1,939 177,111 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 126,397
19 2,034 173,930 1,722 1,842 3,505 989 1,959 183,948 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 133,234
20 2,035 180,939 1,740 1,861 3,540 999 1,978 191,057 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 140,343
21 2,036 188,231 1,757 1,879 3,576 1,009 1,998 198,450 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 147,736
22 2,037 195,816 1,775 1,898 3,612 1,019 2,018 206,138 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 155,424
23 2,038 203,708 1,792 1,917 3,648 1,029 2,038 214,133 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 163,419
24 2,039 211,917 1,810 1,936 3,684 1,040 2,059 222,446 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 171,732
25 2,040 220,458 1,828 1,956 3,721 1,050 2,079 231,092 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 180,378
26 2,041 229,342 1,847 1,975 3,758 1,061 2,100 240,083 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 189,369
27 2,042 238,584 1,865 1,995 3,796 1,071 2,121 249,433 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 198,719
28 2,043 248,199 1,884 2,015 3,834 1,082 2,142 259,156 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 208,442
29 2,044 258,202 1,903 2,035 3,872 1,093 2,164 269,268 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 218,554
30 2,045 268,607 1,922 2,055 3,911 1,104 2,185 279,784 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 229,070
31 2,046 279,432 1,941 2,076 3,950 1,115 2,207 290,721 - 16,668 34,046 50,714 50,714 240,007
32 2,047 290,693 1,960 2,097 3,989 1,126 2,229 302,095 (207,769) 16,668 34,046 50,714 (157,055) 459,150
OPERATING COSTS
PROJECT
YEAR YEAR
DIRECT BENEFITS INDIRECT BENEFITS
19
Table 7: Economic Evaluation (Base case, in Thousands of US$) – continuation IRR 9.37%
NPV 439,311
PV Benefits 1,722,372
PV Cost 1,283,061
B/C 1.34
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