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January24,2018
DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
1) TotalUSstorenumbersfellin2017forthefirsttimesince2009.Thedeclinewasdrivenbyapparelretailersandregionalmalls,whicharemoreskewedtowardapparel.
2) Open-airshoppingcentersarebenefitingfromthegrowthofoff-price,dollarandgrocerystores.Theseshoppingcentersshowedresilientoccupancyratesin2017.
3) Superregionalmalls,whichareleisuredestinationsaswellasretaildestinations,registeredsolidoccupancyratesacross2017despitetheimpactofretailbankruptcies.
4) Anumberofmajorshoppingcenterownersarepivotingawayfromapparelspecialiststores.Somearefocusingonbringingingroceryandothereveryday-goodsretailers,whileothersaremovingtowardmixed-usespacesthatincorporateleisureandentertainmentvenues.
What Retail Apocalypse? Reviewing Trends in US Brick-and-Mortar Retail
Deborah Weinswig
Managing Director
FGRT
US: 917.655.6790
HK: 852.6119.1779
CN: 86.186.1420.3016
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January24,2018
DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Contents
ExecutiveSummary..................................................................................................................................................3
Introduction..............................................................................................................................................................4
TheBadNews...........................................................................................................................................................4TotalStoreNumbersDeclinedin2017fortheFirstTimeSince2009...................................................................4ShopperTrafficFellbyNearly8%in2017.............................................................................................................7
TheGoodNews........................................................................................................................................................7In-StoreRetailSalesContinuetoGrow..................................................................................................................7SalesperStoreandSalesDensitiesAreGrowing,Too..........................................................................................8Open-AirCentersandSuperregionalMallsSeeSolidOccupancyRates................................................................9TopRetailRealEstateOwnersMaintain95%OccupancyRates.........................................................................11
KeyTakeaways........................................................................................................................................................12
Appendix:RealEstateManagementCommentary.................................................................................................13
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January24,2018
DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
ExecutiveSummaryThe“retailapocalypse”narrativeintheUShasbeendrivenbyclosuresofapparelspecialtystoresandapparel-focuseddepartmentstores.Theseclosureshaveheavilyimpactedregionalmalls,whichtendtoskewtowardappareland,so,havebeenwheremanyclosureshavebeenconcentrated.Buttoseethefullerpictureofbrick-and-mortarperformance,wemustlookbeyondapparelandregionalmalls,asitrevealsthattheretaillandscapeismoreresilientthanrecentcoveragehassuggested.
Intermsofoccupancyrates,open-airshoppingcentersandsuperregionalmallsfaroutperformedregionalmallsintheUSin2017.Manyoftheretailersthatareactivelyopeningstores—fromAlditoT.J.Maxx—areopeninginoff-malllocationssuchasstripmalls.Open-aircentersalsotendtobenefitfromhavingastrongpresenceofeveryday-goodsretailers,suchasgrocerystores,whichsupportshoppertraffic.Larger,well-invested,destinationmallshavetendedtooutperformunremarkableregionalmallsbymixingtraffic-drawingleisurevenueswithretail.
Shopping-centerownerssuchasGGPhavebeenreducingtheirexposuretoapparelspecialiststoresandanumberofretailrealestateownershavesoughttobringinmoregrocerytenantsorcreatemoremixed-usespacesattheirproperties.
Below,wesummarizekeymetricsthatreflectthediversityofUSbrick-and-mortarperformance.
Figure1.USBrick-and-MortarRetail:PositiveandNegativeMetricsin2017
Totalphysicalstoresaleswereupbyabout2.5%in2017,wecalculate,basedonUSCensusBureaudata.Wethinkthataveragein-storesalesgrowthislikelytoacceleratein2018.
AveragesalesperstoreandaveragesalespersquarefootacrossUSretailalsoincreasedin2017,weestimate.
Thegroceryanddollarstoresectorsexpandedsignificantlyin2017,withmajorretailersopeninganet1,785stores.Thisboostedoff-malllocationssuchasstripmalls.
Shopping-centerownerGGPnotedsustainedtrafficgrowthinitspremium,classAmallsduringtheyear.
Mall-basedsalesdensitieswereflatinfurnitureandwereupmeaningfullyinelectronicsyearoveryearinthefirst10monthsof2017(latest),accordingtodatafromtheInternationalCouncilofShoppingCenters(ICSC).
Open-airshoppingcentersanddestinationsuperregionalmallssawrelativelyresilientoccupancylevelsin2017amidarashofretailbankruptcies.
In2017,thetotalnumberofretailoutletsfellforthefirsttimesince2009,accordingtoEuromonitorInternational.Totalretailspacedeclined,too.
FGRTdatarevealedthatsoftlineretailers,whichincludeapparelspecialists,closedthehighestnumberofstoresamongmajorretailersin2017,with3,411netclosures.
Shoppertrafficwasdownsharplyatspecialtyandlarge-storeretailerslastyear,accordingtoRetailNext.
Totalmalloccupancyratesdeclinedslightlyin2017,accordingtoICSCdata,drivenbyaslumpinregionalmalls,whichtendtohaveahigherproportionofappareltenants.
FourofthetopfiveretailrealestateownersintheUSreportedmildyear-over-yeardeclinesinoccupancyattheendofthethirdquarterof2017(latest),astheycontinuedtofeeltheeffectsofretailbankruptcies.
The“retailapocalypse”narrativehasbeendrivenbyclosuresofapparelspecialtystoresandapparel-focuseddepartmentstoresinregionalmalls.
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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
IntroductionAsmoreandmoreretailersenteredbankruptcyorshutteredstoresin2017,thenarrativethatUSretailwasundergoinganapocalypsetookhold.Inthisreport,webringtogetheranumberofdatapointsonbrick-and-mortarretailandretailrealestatetoanalyzewhatactuallyhappenedlastyear.Ourfocusisonthephysicalstorelandscaperatherthanonindividualretailers.
Storeclosuresbyapparelanddepartmentstoreretailersfueledthenegativeheadlinesin2017andearly2018,althoughtherewerecasualtiesinothersectors,too,suchasRadioShackinelectronics.Theseclosuresimpactedregionalshoppingmallsmostheavily.Inthisreport,wearguethatwemustlookbeyondapparelandregionalmallstoseethefullerpictureofbrick-and-mortarperformance.Thiswiderviewrevealsabrick-and-mortarlandscapethatismoreresilientthanrecentcoveragehassuggested.
• ReadersmayalsobeinterestedinourMallIsNotDeadreports.
TheBadNewsFirst,weroundupsomeofthebadnewsregardingstoreclosuresandtraffic,muchofwhichislikelyfamiliartoreaders.Weexaminemorepositiveindicatorslaterinthereport.
TotalStoreNumbersDeclinedin2017fortheFirstTimeSince2009Storeclosuresgrabbedtheheadlinesanddrovetheretailapocalypsenarrativein2017andinto2018.Accordingtoourownresearch,majorUSchainsannouncedatotalof6,955storeclosuresin2017.AccordingtoEuromonitorInternational,whosestoreclosurefiguresincludesmallandindependentretailers,totalUSstorenumbersfellin2017forthefirsttimesince2009.However,inthecontextofallretailstores,thedeclineswereslight:
• ThetotalnumberofUSstoresfellbyjust0.1%yearoveryearin2017,to965,148,accordingtoEuromonitorInternational.
• Becausemanyofthelocationsthatwereclosedin2017werelarge-formatstores,suchasdepartmentstores,theyear-over-yeardeclineintotalretailnetsellingspaceequatedtoamoresizeable0.6%.Asofyear-end,theUShad8.52billionsquarefeetofretailsellingspace,accordingtoEuromonitor.
USstorenumbersfellin2017forthefirsttimesince2009.
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Figure2.USRetail:TotalNumberofStores(Thous.,LeftAxis)andNetSquareFootage(Mil.Sq.Ft.,RightAxis)atYear-End
Source:EuromonitorInternational
OuranalysisofEuromonitorselling-spacedataandourowntallyofstoreclosureandopeningannouncementsrevealedthefollowingsectortrends:
• Apparelandfootwearspecialiststores’totalsellingspacedeclinedby2.2%yearoveryearin2017.PaylessShoeSource,Rue21,AscenaRetail,GymboreeandTheLimitedannouncedacombined2,080storeclosuresin2017.However,apparelretailisfragmented,sotheseclosuresresultedinonlyalow-single-digitdeclineintotalsectorspace.
• Departmentstores’totalsellingspacefellby3.5%in2017.Sears,Kmart,JCPenneyandMacy’sannouncedacombined566storeclosuresduringtheyear.
• Sellingspaceinelectronicsandappliancestoresfellsharplyin2017.RadioShackaloneclosedalmost1,500stores,whileHHGreggclosed220stores.
• Varietystoreandgroceryretailersgrewtotalsellingspacein2017.DollarGeneral,DollarTree,Aldi,FiveBelowandLidlannouncedacombinedtotalof2,535storeopeningsintheyear.
• Warehouseclubsgrewsellingspace,too.
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DollarGeneral,DollarTree,Aldi,FiveBelowandLidlannouncedacombined2,535storeopeningsin2017.
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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Figure3.USRetail:Total2017SellingSpace,bySector(YoY%Change)
Source:EuromonitorInternational/FGRT
OurWeeklyStoreOpeningsandClosuresTrackerfoundthatstorenumbertrendswerebroadlysimilartoselling-spacetrendsover2017.Softlineretailers—whichlargelyconsistofapparelspecialtystores—werethegroupthatannouncedthemoststoreclosuresin2017,whilegroceryretailers,dollarstoresandwarehouseclubsannouncedasignificantnetincreaseinstorenumbers.Forsoftlineanddepartmentstoreretailers,thenetfiguresbelowincludetheoffsettingeffectofopeningsbychainssuchasT.J.Maxx,RossStores,Macy’sBackstageandNordstrom.
Figure4.USRetail:MajorRetailers’NetAnnouncedStoreOpeningsandClosures(2017)
*IncludesTarget,FiveBelowanddollarstoresSource:FGRT
Aswediscussinmoredetaillater,storeclosuresandopeningshavenotbeendistributedevenlyacrossdifferenttypesofshoppingcenters.Manyof2017’sclosureannouncementswerefocusedonmalllocations,andmanyopeningannouncementswerenot.Theretailersthatannouncedthemoststoreopeningsin2017wereDollarGeneral,DollarTree,Aldi,TJXCompanies,FiveBelow,Ulta,LidlandRossStores.Theseretailersalloptedtoopeneithersomeoralloftheirnewstoresinoff-malllocations.
(8.3)
(3.5)
(2.2)
1.0
1.3
4.4
ElectronicsandApplianceStores
DepartmentStores
ApparelandFootwearSpecialtyRetailers
WarehouseClubs
GroceryRetailers
VarietyStores
(3,311)
(2,044)
(683)
(194)
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SoilineRetailers
HardlineRetailers
DepartmentStores
Drugstores
GroceryStores,GeneralMerchandiseStoresandWarehouseClubs*
Theretailersthatannouncedthemoststoreopeningsin2017wereDollarGeneral,DollarTree,Aldi,TJXCompanies,FiveBelow,Ulta,LidlandRossStores.
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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
ShopperTrafficFellbyNearly8%in2017Shoppertrafficdeclinedsharplyacrossspecialtyandlarger-formatstoresin2017,accordingtodatafromRetailNext.Thesetypesofstoressawtrafficfallbyanaverageof7.9%overtheyear,slightlybelowthe8.3%averagedeclineseenacross2016.
Meanwhile,traffictrendsatcertainpremiummallsintheUSwerestrongin2017.Onitsmidyearconferencecall,shopping-centerownerGGPpointedtoa1.4%year-over-yearincreaseintrafficatitstop-tier,classAmalls.ThefirmalsonotedthatitsB+mallshadseenpositivetraffictrendsandthatitsBmallshadseenflattraffictrends.
Figure5.USShopperTrafficinSpecialtyandLarger-FormatStores(YoY%Change)
Source:RetailNext/FGRT
TheGoodNewsDespitethechallengesretailersfacedin2017,totalin-storesalescontinuedtogrow,yieldinganupliftinsalesdensitiesacrossUSretail.Moreover,occupancyratesinopen-airshoppingcentersandsuperregionalmallsprovedresilient.
In-StoreRetailSalesContinuetoGrowTherapidgrowthofe-commerceiswelldocumented,buttotalstore-basedretailsaleshavecontinuedtogrow,too.OuranalysisofUSCensusBureaudatafoundthat,in2017:
• Totalofflineretailsalesgrewbyapproximately2.5%.
• Totalofflinenonfoodsalesgrewmorestrongly,byabout2.8%.
• Totalofflinefoodandbeveragesalesgrewbyabout1.8%.
Meanwhile,totalUSretailsalesgrewby4.0%overtheyear.
Wethinkthatstore-basedsalesgrowthislikelytostrengthenin2018amidacceleratingtotalretailsalesgrowth.Offlinesalesaremadelargelythroughphysicalstores,buttheyalsoincludemoreminorchannels,suchasdirectselling.
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2017Average:(7.9)%2016Average:(8.3)%
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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
AcrossUSretail,nearly88%ofsalesweremadeofflinein2017,weestimatefromCensusBureaudata.Theverylowe-commercepenetrationrateingrocerydepressesthistotal,andwhenwelookonlyatnonfoodcategories,about84%ofallsalesweremadeofflinelastyear.
SalesperStoreandSalesDensitiesAreGrowing,TooAstotalin-storesalesclimbedacrossUSretailin2017,so,too,didsalesperstoreandsalespersquarefoot.Weestimatethat:
• Onceonlineretailsalesarestrippedout,averagesalesperstoreacrossUSretailroseby2.4%in2017,to$3.13million.
• Averagesalespersquarefootofsellingspaceincreasedevenmoresharply,by2.6%,to$353.
Figure6.USRetail:AverageAnnualOfflineSalesperStore(USDMil.,LeftAxis)andAverageAnnualOfflineSalesperSquareFoot(USD,RightAxis)
BasedonannualaveragestorenumbersandsellingspaceSource:USCensusBureau/EuromonitorInternational/FGRT
Thetotalgrowthfiguresconcealmixedresultsamongdifferenttypesofretailersandlocations.AccordingtoouranalysisofICSCmalldata:
• SalespersquarefootinUSmallsdeclinedby0.7%yearoveryearovertheJanuary–October2017period(latest).
• Theapparelandfootwearcategorysawamoreseverecontractioninmall-basedsalesdensities.
• Homeentertaintmentandelectronicssalesdensitiesgrewstronglyinmallstores.Thismetriclikelybenefitedfromtheshakeoutofplayerswithlowersalesdensities.
TheICSCdataarechainweighted,toadjustforchangesinthesamplesize.Thedataarebasedonnon-anchor-storefiguresandexcludedepartmentstores.
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AveragesalesperstoreacrossUSretailroseby2.4%in2017.
SalespersquarefootinUSmallsdeclinedby0.7%yearoveryearovertheJanuary–October2017period(latest).
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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Figure7.USShoppingMalls:Chain-WeightedAverageAnnualSalesperSquareFoot,bySelectedRetailCategory,January–October2017(YoY%Change)
Source:ICSC/FGRT
Open-AirCentersandSuperregionalMallsSeeSolidOccupancyRatesBankruptcyfilingsfromretailerssuchasSportsAuthority,PaylessShoeSourceandRue21impactedoccupancyratesatshoppingcentersin2017.However,theimpactsoftheseclosureswerenotevenlydistributed,asoccupancyratesatopen-aircentersandsuperregionalmallsoutperformedthoseofregionalmallsovertheyear.
In2017,superregionalmallsweretheonlymajorshopping-centersegmenttogrowoccupancyrates.Onatwo-yearstack,open-aircentersperformedbestintermsofoccupancyrates.Powercenters,whicharefocusedonafewanchortenants,sawasecondyearofdeepdeclinesinoccupancyin2017.
Figure8.USShoppingCenters:Basis-PointChangeinOccupancyRates(asofSeptember2017)
Open-aircentersaregeneralpurposecentersandincludestripmalls,neighborhoodcentersandcommunitycenters.Powercentershavecategory-dominantanchorsandonlyafewsmalltenants;theyarenotincludedwithintheopen-aircenterscategory.*Regionalmallsandsuperregionalmallsaresubsetsoftotalmalls.Source:ICSC/FGRT
(0.7)
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FurnitureandFurnishings
HomeEntertainmentand
Electronics
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Open-AirCenters PowerCenters
Onatwo-yearstack,open-aircentersperformedbestintermsofoccupancyrates.
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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Open-aircentersareoneofthemostresilientretailrealestatesegments.Thereareanumberofreasonsforthestrengthoftheseproperties:
• Manyoftheretailersthatareactivelyopeningstores—fromAlditoDollarGeneraltoT.J.MaxxtoUlta—areopeningtheminoff-malllocationssuchasstripmalls.
• Open-aircenterstendtohavelessexposuretoapparelspecialtyretailers,whereretailbankruptcieshavebeenmostconcentrated.
• Thecenterstendtohaveastrongpresenceofeverydayretailerssuchasgrocerystores.Grocery,inparticular,continuestoseeaverylargemajorityofsalestransactedinphysicalstoresratherthanonline,whichsupportsshoppertrafficatopen-aircenters.
Superregionalmalls,whichtheICSCdefinesasthoseof800,000squarefeetormore,wereresilientin2017.Thesemallsgrewoccupancyratesby76basispointsovertheyearandoutperformedtotalmallsonatwo-yearstack.Somemallownershavechosentocatertoconsumerdemandforqualityexperiencesbyinvestinginsuperregionalmallstoensuretheyprovideshopperswithwiderchoiceandleisurefacilities.
Regionalmalls,whicharetypicallyenclosedmallsof400,000–800,000squarefeet,havebeenthehardesthitofthelargershopping-centerformats.Thesemallsincludealongtailofshoppingcentersthatfocusonapparelretailers,andsomeofthemhavesufferedfromanegativecycleofpoortraffictrendsandstoreclosures.
In2017,managementatretailrealestatefirmDDRnotedanaveragewindowof12–18monthsbetweenthetimeananchorstoreinashoppingcenterclosesandthetimethespacereopens.
Aschartedbelow,occupancyrateshavetendedtoholdupwellatsuperregionalmallsandopen-aircenters.Powercentershaveseensteepdeclinesinoccupancy,butfromaverystrongposition.Regionalmallshaveexperiencedsevereattritioninoccupancyratessincemid-2016asaresultofbankruptciesandstoreclosureprograms.
Figure9.USShoppingCenters:OccupancyRates(%)
Source:ICSC
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TotalMalls RegionalMalls
SuperregionalMalls Open-AirCenters
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Regionalmallshaveexperiencedsevereattritioninoccupancyratessincemid-2016.
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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Asaresultofthesetrends,anumberofmallownershavebeendiversifyingtheirportfoliostoincorporatemorepremium,classAmalls,wheresalesdensitiesarehigherandwheretenantsmayincludedestinationstoressuchasAppleorTeslastores.TheseAmallsaccountforonly20%ofallUSmalls,buttheygenerate72%oftotalmallsales,accordingtoGreenStreetAdvisors.ThestrugglingmallstendtoberegionalclassCandDmallsaswellassomeBmalls.Combined,thesemakeupthe300orsomallsthatdominatethenegativecommentaryonthestateofphysicalretailintheUS.
Thesesameregionalmallsarelikelytobetheonesimpactedwhenanchordepartmentstoresclose,andsuchclosuresaredrivingmallownerstorethinkhowtheyareusingtheirspaces.Today,anumberofmallownersareusingtheseclosuresasopportunitiestoreshapetheirretailofferingandarefillingtheirmallswithtrafficdriversthatincludegrocerystores,discountstores(suchasT.J.Maxx)andhigher-growthfashionretailers(suchasH&MandZara).Insomecases,mallownersaredividingtheirspacesintosmallersectionstohouseboutiquesthatofferacuratedselectionofgoods.
TopRetailRealEstateOwnersMaintain95%OccupancyRatesAccordingtoNationalRealEstateInvestor,thetopfiveownersofUSretailrealestate(asmeasuredbygrossleasablearea)in2016were,indescendingorder,SimonPropertyGroup,GGP,KimcoRealty,BrixmorPropertyGroupandDDR.
Attheendofthethirdquarterof2017(latest),fourofthesefivecompanieshadseenayear-over-yeardeclineinoccupancyrate,asweshowinthetablebelow.However,thedeclinesweremarginal,especiallyinthecontextofretailbankruptcies.Thenonweightedaverageoccupancyratesacrossthesecompanieswas94.5%attheendofthethirdquarterof2017,versus95.2%oneyearearlier.
• SimonPropertyGroupoperatesregionalmalls,premiumoutletcentersandmallsundertheMillsbanner,thelatterofwhichblendconventionalretail,outletstoresandentertainment.
• GGPoperatespremiumretailpropertiesacrossopen-aircentersandcoveredmalls.
• Kimco,BrixmorandDDRconcentrateonopen-aircenters.Manyoftheseincludeeverydayretailerssuchasgrocerystoresandvalueretailers:BrixmorshoppingcenterstendtohavegroceryanchorswhileDDRcharacterizesitscentersas“value-oriented.”
Figure10.MajorUSRetailRealEstateOwners:OccupancyRate(%)
Simon GGP Kimco Brixmor DDR
1Q16 95.6 95.9 95.8 92.4 96.12Q16 95.9 96.1 96.0 92.8 96.13Q16 96.3 96.7 95.1 92.6 95.44Q16 96.8 97.2 95.4 92.8 95.01Q17 95.6 95.9 95.3 92.5 94.32Q17 95.2 95.7 95.5 92.0 93.73Q17 95.3 96.5 95.8 91.6 93.4YoYbasis-pointchangeat3Q17 (100) (20) 70 (100) (200)
Figuresareasofquarter-end.Source:Companyreports/FGRT
Attheendofthethirdquarterof2017(latest),fourofthetopfiveownersofretailrealestatehadseenayear-over-yeardeclineinoccupancyrate.
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GGPandothershavebeendialingdowntheirexposuretoapparelspecialtystores,andanumberofthesecompanieshavefocusedongrocery-anchoredcentersorsoughttobringinmoregrocerytenantstotheirexistingcenters.Somehavealsobeenaddingleisureservicessuchasfitnesscentersandentertainmentvenuestotheirproperties.
Inaddition,SimonPropertyGroupandGGPareembarkingonmixed-useconceptsthatincluderesidences,hotels,restaurants,grocerystores,bowlingalleysandfoodhalls.
• Wefeaturecommentaryfrommanagementatthesefivefirmsinanappendixtothisreport.
KeyTakeaways• 2017sawajumpinstoreclosureannouncementsbymajorretailers,
whichpromptedadeclineintotalUSstorenumbersforthefirsttimesince2009.Negativeheadlinesweredrivenbyapparelretailandtheregionalmallsthataremorereliantonthatsector.
• Open-aircentersarebenefitingfromthegrowthofoff-price,dollarandgroceryretailers.Theopen-airsegmentsawresilientoccupancyratesin2017despitetheimpactofretailbankruptices.
• Similarly,superregionalmalls,whichareleisureaswellasretaildestinations,registeredsolidoccupancyratesacross2017.Reflectingthestrengthofpremiumcenters,GGPrecordedpositivetraffictrendsinitsAmallsovertheyear.
• Anumberofmajorshopping-centerownersarepivotingawayfromapparelspecialiststores.Somearefocusingonbringingingroceryandeveryday-goodsretailers,whicharelessvulnerabletoe-commercemigrationthanapparelretailersare.Othersaremovingtowardmixed-usespacesthatincorporateleisureandentertainmentvenuesaswellasofficeandresidentialunits.
Lastyear’snegativeheadlinesweredrivenbyapparelretailandtheregionalmallsthataremorereliantonthatsector.
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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Appendix:RealEstateManagementCommentaryFinally,toaddcoloranddetail,wewrapupkeycommentaryfromthemanagementofSimonPropertyGroup,GGP,KimcoRealty,BrixmorPropertyGroupandDDR,asstatedonconferencecallsacrossthefirstthreequartersof2017(latestattimeofwriting).
SimonPropertyGroupSimonPropertyGroupisdiversifyingthemixofspaceatitspropertiestoincludelesiure,officeandresidentialspace.
3Q17DavidE.Simon,ChairmanandCEO:
Wehaveasignificantopportunitytocontinuetoimproveourportfoliothroughthedensificationofourcenterswiththeadditionofmixed-usecomponents:hotels,multifamily,officeandothers.…WerecentlyopenedTheShopsatClearfork,agreatnewcenter.Thisopen-aircenterisanexcellentexampleofthetypeofvibrantmixed-use,community-centricenvironmentwecreate,alongwithourpartners.Wehavecarefullycuratedamixofshopping,dining,entertainment[and]office[space].
2Q17DavidE.Simon:
Tenantbankruptciesprocessedduringthesecondquarterforretailers,including,butnotlimitedto,Rue21,Payless,BCBGandBebe,impactedouroccupancybyapproximately100basispoints.
1Q17RichardS.Sokolov,PresidentandCOO:
[Y]ou’llseenewretailers,boththee-tailersandtheinternationalretailers,andourexistingbrandsandnewdesignerbrandsthatallwanttotakeadvantageofthespacethatisbecomingavailable,eitherbecausewecreatedit,becausewetookbackspacefromunderproductiveretailers,orweconsolidatedthoseunproductiveretailersintomoreproductivespacetofreeupspace.
GGPGGPisseekingtoreducetheapparelsector’sshareofspaceonitspropertiesandisbringingingrocerytenants,includingLidl,andleisuretenantssuchasfitnesscenters.LikeatSimonPropertyGroup,managementatGGPhaspointedtoInternetretailersopeningstoresasanopportunity.
3Q17SandeepLakhmiMathrani,CEO:
Thesecondquarterofthisyearwasthetrough[inoccupancy],followingthestoreclosuresearlierthisyear.…[I]nthe[Amalls],again,whicharethetopsortof80malls…apparelisalreadydowntolike41%oftotalsquarefootage.…So,effectively,itaccounts—intotalsales—[for]about35%oftotalsales.So,we’resayingthatbasicallywe’llgettothe35%to40%markeronapparel.
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January24,2018
DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
2Q17SandeepLakhmiMathrani:
InJuly,weacquiredanadditionalinterestin13SearsboxeslocatedinourportfoliofromSeritageGrowthProperties.…Theselocationsaresubstantiallyleasedtonewtenantssuchasrestaurants,fitnesscenters,entertainmentvenues,supermarketsandotherlarge-formatstores.Searswillcontinuetooccupy600,000squarefeetofthe1.5millionsquarefeet.
[T]herewas1.8millionsquarefeetofbankruptcies[impactingGGP]thisyear;80%hasbeenre-leased,i.e.,1.4millionsquarefeet.…Therearenumerouse-commerceretailersplanningtoopenstores.ThesearecompaniesthathavebeenoperatingforfivetosevenyearsontheInternetandhavesalesof$25millionto$100million.
Theoverallexposure[toapparel]isstill50%.Thenewleasingfortheyearis25%.So,it’strendingdownto41%.IntheAassets,it’salreadydownintothelow40s.
1Q17SandeepLakhmiMathrani:
InMarch,PrimarkopenedatStatenIslandMall.Trafficincreasedover10%fromthepriorweekend,andthisincreasedlevelhasbeenmaintained.Also,Lidl,aGermansupermarketoperator,willopensoonintherecapturedSearsspace.Lidloperatesover10,000storesthroughoutEuropeandisbringingtheirconcepttotheUS,beginningwitheightstates.…[AtStatenIslandMall],entertainmentwillbe54%andwillincludeanAMCtheaterandDave&Buster’s.Apparelwillbe17%andincludeZara.Foodanddiningwillbeabout20%andwillincludeShakeShack.Theremainingspacewillbetakenbyavarietyofpersonalcare,homefurnishingandothertenants,suchasAppleBank,Ulta[and]ZGallerie.
Theportfoliowas95.9%leasedatquarter-endcomparedto96.1%ayearago.Thedecrease[was]primarilyduetotenantbankruptciesduringthequarter.Therelatedstoreclosuresaffected1.2millionsquarefeetwithinourportfolio.Todate,wehavere-leasednearly80%ofthespace.
KimcoRealtyInearly2017,KimcowasimpactedbytheSportsAuthoritybankruptcy.IthasnotedthatthereareopportunitieswithnascentUSchainssuchasLidlandHomeSensefromTJX.
3Q17ConorC.Flynn,CEO:
Theseresultsvalidateourongoingthesisthatopen-aircentersthatfocusongrocers,off-price,fitness,everydaygoodsandservicescontinuetobesolidinvestmentsandremainthebackboneofourstrategytocreatetheoptimalportfolioanddriveshareholdervalue.
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January24,2018
DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
2Q17ConorC.Flynn:
[W]henyoulookatthenamesthatarestillreorganizingandcomingout,ourstoreclosurelistisvery,verysmall…andthey’retypicallysmallshops,sotheyhaveaverymodestimpact,ifanyatall,intermsofournextyear’snumbers.Sowecontinuetolookatthegrowingretailersthatwe’redoingbusinesswith.Ithinkthatwillfaroutweightheexposurewehavetosomeofthewatchlisttenantsthatareclosingstores.
1Q17ConorC.Flynn:
Kimcoisadaptingto[the]evolvinglandscapebyworkinghardtodeliverboththeproductandanexperiencetotenantsandshopperscommensuratewiththisnewworldorder.Andthatiswhyatmanyof[our]sites,you’llseemorehealthandwellness,moreserviceproviders,morefoodandrestaurants,moreentertainmentandmoreexperientialretailing.…Ofourtop20tenants,sevenhaverecentlyhitall-timehighsintheirstockprice,andmanyhavelargenewstoreopeningplans.Forexample,TJX,RossandBurlingtoninaggregatehaveannouncedexpansionplansinexcessof300stores.Whilewearenotimmune[to]storeclosures,wecontinuetobelieveweareinthesweetspotofretailandwillcontinuetogenerateinterestfromhigh-qualitytenantsthatwilldrivemoretrafficandmoresalestothesurroundingretailstores.
GlennGaryCohen,CFO,EVPandTreasurer:
First-quarteroccupancywasimpactedbyapproximately70basispointsrelatingtotheremainingSportsAuthorityvacancies.
BrixmorPropertyGroupBrixmorhaspointedtotherelativeresilienceofopen-aircentersthatarefocusedoneverydaycategoriessuchasgroceryandthatincorporateservicessuchasfitnesscentersandrestaurants.
3Q17JamesM.Taylor,CEOandPresident:
Thesedealshighlight…ourpreviouslystatedcommitmenttoextendingourtenancywithusessuchasrestaurants,fitness,home,valueandspecialtygrocery.
[W]eexperienceda50basis[-point]impact[totheoccupancyrate]frombankruptciesthatwehighlightedlastquarter,primarilyPaylessandRue21.I’mpleasedtoreportthatwecontinuetomakestrongprogressonleasingtherecapturedspace.
2Q17JamesM.Taylor:
WetipourhatstotherecentlyreportedstrongresultsofourgoodfriendsatKimco,WeingartenandKite,whichunderscorethebroader
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January24,2018
DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
truththatdemandtobeinwell-locatedopen-aircentersremainedstrong.Infact,thisquarter’sanalysisbyournationalaccountsteamofover150tenantsacrossopen-airsegmentssuchasgrocery,off-price,fitness,entertainment,homegoods,restaurant,healthandbeauty,andothersindicatedplanstoopenupover12,500newstoresinthenext12months.And,importantly,thatcountdoesnotincludethethousandsofnewopeningsplannedforregionalandlocaltenants.
[W]edoexpect[theoccupancyrate]totroughinthethirdquarter.Whenyouthinkaboutthetotalimpactofbankruptciesfrom[2016]ontheyear,it’sabout60basispoints.…Andweexpectareaccelerationactuallyinthefourthquarter,giventheprogressthatwe’vemadere-leasingnotonlythatspace,but…the2016bankruptcies.
1Q17BrianT.Finnegan,EVPofLeasing:
[T]hedemandwe’reseeingforPaylessinto[the]3,000-square-footrange,aswellasforRue21in5,000to10,000squarefeet,withpetstores,withhomeaccessories,operatorslikeFiveBelow,wefeelthedemandisoverallprettygood.…[W]ealreadyaddressedroughly80%ofthebankruptcieslastyear,ourSportsAuthorityrentsatcloseto70%spread,andwefeelprettygoodaboutthedemandthatwe’reseeinginHHGreggsofar…andalsothosethatwe’restartingtoreallyhavemoreprogresswith,likeentertainment,withourfirstDave&Buster’sthatwedidattheendoftheyear.
JamesM.Taylor:
[L]ookagainatwhattheteamdidwiththose16bankruptcies,mostofwhichwerecontrolledinthelatterhalfof2016.Wewereabletoproactivelygetafteritandre-tenant—morethantherentthatwasthere,80%ofthe[grossleasablearea]and,again,bringin…muchmorerelevantconceptsacrossavarietyofuses.…Andweseefarmorenewconceptsandmanymoresegmentsbeinginterestedinmovingintotheopen-airformat,sowelikehowwe’repositioned.
DDRDDRwasimpactedbybankruptciessuchasSportsAuthority,HHGreggandGolfsmithbuthaspointedtodemandfromretailerssuchasAldi,Lidl,T.J.Maxx/HomeSenseandUlta.
3Q17MichaelMakinen,EVPandCOO:
We’reparticularlypleasedtohavethecountry’sfirsttwoHomeSensestores,TJX’snewhomefurnishingsconcept,openedatShoppersWorldinFramingham,Massachusetts,andinEastHanover,NewJersey.…[T]heleasingenvironmentcontinuestobecharacterizedbysteadydemandforspace.Tothatend,wecontinuetoexpectthatitwillbea12-monthto18-monthprocesstoachieverentcommencementsfornewtenantsfillinganchorspacesmadevacant
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January24,2018
DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
fromrecentbankruptcies.Wenowhave24ofthe28formerSportsAuthority,HHGreggandGolfsmithspacesre-leasedorin…negotiations.
2Q17MichaelMakinen:
[Bankruptcies]causedourquarter-endleasedratetodecline60basispointssequentially,to93.7,primarilyasaresultofHHGreggclosuresthisquarter.Wecontinuetoexpecttheleaseratetotroughinthethirdquarter.Ourleasingpipelineremainsrobust.
1Q17MichaelMakinen:
DDR’sresultsthisquarterandfortheremainderoftheyeararebeingweigheddownbysignificantanchorvacanciesresultingfromrecenttenantbankruptciesfromTheSportsAuthority,HHGreggandGolfsmith.…TheInternetandchangingconsumerpatternswillundoubtedlycausesomeweakretailerstofallintodistress,butthereisstillahealthylistofhigh-qualityreplacementanchors,includingtheTJXbrands,UltaBeauty,Dick’s,Aldi,Ross,FiveBelowandBurlington.
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January24,2018
DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
DeborahWeinswig,CPAManagingDirectorFGRTNewYork:917.655.6790HongKong:852.6119.1779China:86.186.1420.3016deborahweinswig@fung1937.comJohnMercerSeniorAnalyst
ErinSchmidtResearchAssociate
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