Download - Weekly Commodity Market Tips 4th Jan

04 JAN – 08 JAN 2016

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W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM


MAJOR EVENTS Gold’s image as a haven asset has taken a battering with the metal capping its longest

slump in more than 30 years as investors sold from bullion-backed funds. Bullion

futures fell for a sixth-straight quarter, the longest slump since 1984, and lost 10

percent this year. Prices, which were little changed on Thursday, plunged about 45

percent since reaching a record high in 2011. The metal booked its third annual loss,

the longest run since 1998, as the dollar surged on the back of tighter monetary

policy in the U.S, joining a collapse in prices of commodities from iron ore to oil.

Holdings in gold exchange-traded products have declined 10 times in the last 13

sessions to 1,466.4 metric tons, near the lowest in more than six years. Prices may

approach $1,000 in 2016, before recovering toward $1,200 by the end of the year as

the dollar and bond yields retreat. The Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs for the

first time in almost a decade this month, and traders are now focusing on the pace of

further rate increases. While HSBC Holdings Plc predicts just two moves next year,

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is among banks that see four. Bullion will drop to $950 by

the end of next year. The selling pressure from paper investors has been felt

particularly hard and gold’s safe-haven status has suffered.

The United States is an oil exporter again. For the first time in 40 years, a ship loaded

with U.S. crude oil set sail for foreign shores Thursday. The Bahamian tanker “Theo T”

cruised out of the Port of Corpus Christi toward Europe loaded with light crude from

the nearby South Texas Eagle Ford Shale oilfield. The U.S. banned crude oil exports

following the oil embargo and gas crisis during the 70’s. The ban was lifted as part of a

budget deal between the president and congress this December. A previously idled

60-mile pipeline from Pettus to Corpus Christi has been re-activated and two other

pipelines that previously transported imported oil from the Port of Corpus Christi

have been reversed to make the export of Texas crude possible. San Antonio's NuStar

Logistics, which controls the pipeline network is also constructing new docks in

Corpus Christi in anticipation of expanded exports of Eagle Ford crude. Once

completed NuStar will be able to load 90,000 barrels of Texas crude per hour. NuStar

is not alone in its investment in the Port of Corpus Christi. Construction of a $1 billion

pipe plant is underway as well as a $750 million iron plant which will be fired by

inexpensive natural gas from the Eagle Ford.

The boom in Corpus Christi comes as oil prices have crashed – and the end of the US

crude export ban could offer Eagle Ford producers relief.

USA an oil

exporter for first

time in 40 years.

Copper, Metals

Sag Most Since

2008 as Cuts Too

Late to Save 2015.

Industrial metals fell, capping the worst year since 2008, as production cuts and signs

of improving demand in China came too late to counter falling consumption and

excess supplies. Aluminum, copper, zinc, tin, nickel and lead capped annual losses,

with nickel dropping 42 percent, the worst performer on the London Metal Exchange

LMEX Index. The gauge fell 24 percent this year. Copper declined for a third straight

year, the longest slump since 1998, amid growing supply gluts after demand faltered

in China, the world’s biggest metals user. While producers in the Asian nation and

elsewhere have pledged production cuts, investors spooked by wavering global

economic growth and the possibility of persistent metals surpluses have been slow to

return. Nine of the nation’s copper producers have agreed to cut sales by 200,000

metric tons in the first three months of 2016, people with knowledge of the matter

said Tuesday. “There are still tremendous unknowns, and we will enter the New Year

with metals not being a favored asset class.” Copper for delivery in three months slid

0.6 percent to settle at $4,705 a metric ton ($2.13 a pound) at 2:50 p.m. on the LME.

Aluminum, tin and zinc also declined, while lead and nickel advanced. Copper futures

for March delivery fell 0.5 percent to $2.135 a pound on the Comex in New York.

Gold Loses

Luster in Worst

Slump Since '84

as Fund Holdings

Drop.

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Jan 4 4:00am FOMC Member Mester Speaks

8:15pm Final Manufacturing PMI 51.1 51.3

8:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 49.1 48.6

8:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.7% 1.0%

8:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 36.5 35.5

Jan 5 All Day Total Vehicle Sales 18.1M 18.2M

Jan 6 6:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 193K 217K

7:00pm Trade Balance -44.0B -43.9B

8:15pm Final Services PMI 55.1 53.7

8:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.0 55.9

8:30pm Factory Orders m/m -0.2% 1.5%

9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 2.6M

Jan 7 12:30am FOMC Meeting Minutes

6:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y -13.9%

7:00pm Unemployment Claims 271K 287K

9:00pm Natural Gas Storage -58B

Jan 8 7:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.2%

7:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 202K 211K

7:00pm Unemployment Rate 5.0% 5.0%

8:30pm Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.0% -0.1%

Jan 9 1:30am Consumer Credit m/m 18.7B 16.0B

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

24740 24340 24000 25280 25625 26060

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

33000 32500 32000 33875 34550 35140

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed negative

movement due to weak dollar and

faces resistance of trendline on daily

chart and closed near to its recent low

of 24740. Now, if it is able to sustain

below 24740 then next major support

level is seen around 24450. On higher

side if it maintains above 25400 then

again it can correct up to resistance

level of 26000.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell

below 24740 for the targets of 24450-

24000, with stop loss of 25500.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R


MCX SILVER last week showed bearish

movement and closed near to its three

year low which is also an important

support level i.e. 33000. Now, on lower

side if it sustains below 33000 then

next support level is seen in the range

of 32000-31500. On higher side if it

maintains above 34000 then only

correction may seen up to resistance

level of 35000.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 33000 for

the target of 32000, with stop loss of

34600.

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

2400 2275 2000 2580 2710 2855

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

312 305.45 298.80 320 326.10 335.40


MCX Copper last week showed

sideways movement and maintaing

above 20 days moving average and

near to downtrend line. Now, if it

maintains above 322 then the next

important resistance level is seen

around 326. On lower side if it sustains

below 307 then again downtrend drag

it up to support level of 295.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

buy above 2600 for the targets of 2800-

2900, with stop loss of 2350.

PIVOT TABLE


MCX Crude oil showed sideways

movement after reverting from lower

band of falling wedge pattern on

weekly chart and facing resistance of

upper band of channel pattern. Now, if

it mainatins above 2600 then next

important resistance level is seen in

the range of 2800-2900. On the other

hand sustaining below 2400, again

drag it towards the support level of

2300.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy

above 322, with stop loss of 307 for the

targets of 332-335.

PIVOT TABLE


DISCLAIMER