8/10/2019 Vision 2040
1/136
| IU G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
2/136
II | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
Oh Uga nda ! may G od uphold thee,
We lay o ur future in thy ha nd .
United , free,
For liberty
Tog ether we' ll a lw a ys s ta nd.
Oh Uga nda ! the la nd of freedo m.
Our love and labour we give,
And w ith neighbo urs a ll
At our co untry's ca ll
In pea ce a nd friend ship w e'll live.
Oh Uga nda ! the la nd that feeds usBy sun and fertile soil grown.
For our ow n dea r la nd,
We'll a lw a ys s ta nd:
The P ea rl of Africa 's C row n.
NATIONAL ANTHEM
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
3/136
| IIIU G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
FOREWORD
Over the last 50 years, Uganda has
ma de signific a nt developme nt prog res s .S ince the mid 1980s , the ec onomy ha s
moved from rec overy to g row th. A num-
ber of economic policies and programs
such as the Structural Adjustment Pro-
gra ms (S AP s), Econo mic Rec overy Pro-
gram (ERP), Poverty Eradication Action
Plan (PEAP) have been successfully
implemented leading to a boost in eco-
nomic grow th. S ince 2002, the ec ono-
my grew consistently at an average of
6.4 perc ent a nd ha s s ince built suffic ient
momentum for takeoff.
In order to consolidate and acceler-
ate this growth process, Government
in 2007 approved the Comprehensive
National Development Planning Frame-
work policy (CNDPF) which provides
for the development of a 30 year Vi-
sion to be implemented through: three
10-year plans; six 5-year National De-
velopme nt P la ns (NDP s); S ec tor Invest-ment Plans (SIPs); Local Government
Development Plans (LGDPs), Annual
wo rk pla ns a nd B udgets . Co nseq uently,Cabinet approved the National Vision
Statement, A Transformed Ugandan
Society from a Peasant to a Modern
and Prosperous Country within 30
years.The Na tiona l P la nning Autho rity
in consultation with other government
institutions and other stakeholders has
thus developed a Uganda Vision 2040
to operationalise this Vision statement.
Ug a nda Vis ion 2040 builds on the p rog -
ress that has been made in addressing
the stra tegic bottlenecks that have c on-
strained Uga nda s soc io-economic de-
velopment since her independence, in-
c luding ; ide ologica l diso rienta tion, w ea k
private sector, underdeveloped human
resources, inadequate infrastructure,
small market, lack of industrialization,
underdeveloped se rvice s sec tor, unde r-
development of agriculture, and poor
democracy, among others.
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
4/136
IV | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
It is therefore, with great pleasure that I
now pres ent the Vision 2040, w hos e a s-
pira tions a re to c ha nge the co untry from
a predominantly low income to a com-
petitive upper middle income country
w ithin 30 years w ith a per ca pita inco me
of USD 9,500. It sets out the goals and
targets to be achieved to realise this
desired socioeconomic transformation.
The a spira tions in Vis ion 2040 have
been arrived at following a nation-wide
co nsulta tion proc es s , a nd it reflec ts the
collective understanding, aspirations
a nd de termination of Uga nda ns.
The Vis ion 2040 is c onc eptua lized
a round s trengthening the funda menta lsof the eco nomy to ha rness the abunda nt
op po rtunities a round the c ountry. The
opportunities include; oil and gas, tour-
ism, minerals, IC T bus ines s , a bund a nt
labour force, geographical location and
tra de, w a ter res ource s, industria lisa tion,
a nd a griculture. On the other hand , the
fundamentals include: infrastructure for
(energy, transport, water, oil and gas
a nd IC T); S c ienc e, Tec hnolog y, Engi-
neering a nd Innova tion (S TEI); la nd ; ur-
ba n development; human reso urce; a nd
pea ce, s ecurity and d efence.
The implementa tion of Vis ion 2040 w ill
depend on the actions and measures
that we undertake as Government, pri-
vate sector, civil society and as indi-
viduals through short and medium-term
Na tiona l Development P la ns . Therefore,
the commitment and dedication of all
Ugandans towards its realization is of
paramount importance. Fellow Ugan-
dans, to achieve the aspirations as
stated in this Vision, we need to have
the right attitudes and mind-sets, par-
ticularly towards work, improving our
competitiveness, and collective partici-
pa tion in its implementa tion.
I, therefore, call upon all Ugandans totake up the challenge as set out in this
Vision 2040 to enable the country real-
ize its full pote ntia l.
FOR GOD AND MY COUNTRY
Yoweri Kaguta Museveni
PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF
UGANDA
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
5/136
| VU G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
TAB LE OF C ONTENTS .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . v
LIS T OF TAB LES ......... ......... ......... .......... ......... ......... ......... .......... .... viii
LIS T OF FIG URES ......... .......... ......... ......... .......... ......... ......... ......... .. ix
LIS T OF AC RONYMS .......... ......... ......... .......... ......... ......... ......... ...... xi
EXECUTIVE S UMMARY.... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... xiii
C HAP TER 1: INTRODUCTION...... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... 2
1.1. B ac kground.. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. 2
1.2. Context and Rationale. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. 3
1.3. The Vision... .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . 4
1.4. Cha llenges to Uga ndas Development. .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. 5
1.5 S tructure of the Document. .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. 7
C HAP TER 2: THE Vis ion AS P IRATIONS , P RINCIP LES ,
TARG ETS AND P OLIC Y S HIFTS .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... 9
2.1. Aspira tions... . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . 9
2.2. P rinciples of Vision 2040..... . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . 10
2.3. Vision 2040 Ta rgets ... . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. 13
2.4. Required P olicy Reforms a nd S hifts. . . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . . 16
C HAP TER 3: G ROWTH TRENDS AND MAC ROEC ONOMIC
S TRATEG IES ......... ......... ......... .......... ......... ......... ....... 20
3.1. G row th Trends... . . . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . . 20
3.2. Uga ndas Competitiveness . . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . 23
3.3. Unemployment... . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . 26
3.4. G row th S trategy.. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . . 26
TAB LE OF C ONTENTS
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
6/136
VI | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
3.5. Key Sectors that will influence G DP G rowth over the
Vision period.. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . . . . . 31
3.6. Macroeconomic S t ra teg ies .. ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... ... .. .. 31
3.6.1. Sa vings and Investments . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 32
3.6.2. Financial Services. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 33
3.6.3. Ba lance of P ayments (BOP). .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 35
3.6.4. P ublic Finance.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 36
C HAP TER 4: S TRENG THENING FUNDAMENTALS FOR
HARNES SING OPP ORTUNITIES. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 39
4.1 Opportunit ies . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 39
4.1.1 Tourism... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 39
4.1.2 Agriculture. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 45
4.1.3 Oil And G as . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 47
4.1.4 Minerals . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 50
4.1.5 Abundant Labour Force . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 51
4.1.6 Industrialisa tion.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 54
4.1.7 Knowledge and ICT Sec tor. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 57
4.1.8 Geographica l Locat ion and Trade Opportunit ies . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 61
4.1.9 Water Resources. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 63
4.2 Fundamenta ls fo r Deve lopment .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... 67
4.2.1 Human Resource. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 67
4.2.2 Transport Infras tructure and Services. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 70
4.2.3 Energy . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 73
4.2.4 Sc ience , Technology, Engineering and Innovat ion. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 75
4.2.5 Urba n Development. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 78
4.2.6 Land. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 82
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
7/136
| VIIU G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
4.2.7 Peace , Security and De fence .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... . 83
CHAP TER 5: SOCIAL TRANS FORMATION... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 87
5.1. Popula t ion: .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 88
5.2. Hea lth and Nutrition.. ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... .. 88
5.3. Educa t ion and Lite racy. .. .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... 91
5.4. C a re and P ro tec tio n fo r the Vulnera b le P opula tio n G ro ups .. 93
5.5. Hous ing Deve lopment. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... . 93
5.6. Nat ional Culture .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 94
5.7. G ender Eq uality and Women Empowerment for
Socio-economic Transformat ion. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 96
5.8. Enviro nme nt a nd Na tura l Re sourc e s (ENR)........................... 98
5.9. C lima te Change.. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... .. 100
CHAP TER 6: G OVERNANCE.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 104
6.1. S tate of G overnance.. .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. 104
6.2. Cons t itutiona l Democracy.. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... 106
6.3. P ro te c tio n o f Huma n R ig hts .................................................. 108
6.4. Rule o f Law .. .. ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... .. 108
6.5. Electora l a nd P olitica l proces ses . . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . . 110
6.6. Transparency and Accountab ility. ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. 110
6.7. G o ve rnment Effe ctive nes s a nd R eg ula to ry Qua lity............... 112
CHAP TER 7: IMP LEMENTATION, MONITORING AND
EVALUATION S TRATEGIES.. .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . 115
7.1. Implementa t ion. .. ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... . . 115
7.2. Financing . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 118
7.3. Monitoring a nd Eva lua t ion. ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... . 119
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
8/136
VIII | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
LIS T OF TAB LES
Tab le 2.1: B as eline Sta tus a nd Vision Ta rgets. . . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. 13
Tab le 3.1: Destination of Uga ndas Exports (% of total exports). . .. . .. . .. 23
Ta ble 3.2: The G DP Trend a nd G row th Ra tes Over
the Vision P eriod.. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. 30
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
9/136
| IXU G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
LIS T OF FIG URES
Figure 3.1: Ugandas Comparative Growth Performance with Selected
UMI Co untries... . . . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . 20
Figure 3.2: G DP &G DP P er-C a pita Trends (1962 - 2010)................................... 21
Figure 3.3: Grow th Rates of Key Sec tors... . . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. 22
Figure 3.4: The Tra de Ba la nce............................................................................. 22
Figure 3.5: Ugandas Competitivenes with Upper Middle Income
Co untries... . . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . 24
Figure 3.6: Most P roblematic Fac tors for Doing B usiness. . . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . 25
Figure 3.7: La bour Force Distribution by S ectors... . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . 26
Figure 3.8: The G row th P a th to the Upper Midd le Income S ta tus
by 2040..... . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . . 28
Figure 3.9: S ector Sha res o f GDP (Actual a nd Foreca sts ).. . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . 32
Figure 3.10: S avings to G DP Ratio of S elected Countries. . . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . . 33
Figure 3.11: G ross Ca pital Formation a s a P ercentage of G DP.. .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . . 34
Figure 3.12: Ta x Revenue a s a perce ntag e o f G DP for S elec ted
Co untries ... .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . 36
Figure 4.1: Infra s tructure Need s for Tourism Developme nt................................. 42
Figure 4.2: P ropos ed Infra structure for Minera l Development.... . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. 52
Figure 4.3: P ropos ed Economic Zones a nd Tra de Area s... . . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . . 62
Figure 4.4: P ropos ed Ra ilwa y Netwo rk... . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . 71
Figure 4.5: P ropos ed Fra mewo rk for S TEI S ystem.... . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . 76
Figure 4.6: P ropos ed S tra tegic Cities &Roa d Netwo rk... . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. 80
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
10/136
X | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
Figure 4.7: The P la nned Ro a d Netw ork for G rea ter Ka mpa la
Metropo lita n Area ............................................................................... 81
Figure 5.1: Na tiona l a nd Reg iona l P overty Estima tes... . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . 87
Figure 5.2: Infa nt Morta lity Ra tes Over Time (Dea th p er 1000 Live B irths) of
S elected Co untries... . . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . 89
Figure 6.1: Impa c t of Insta bility on G DP Trends in Ug a nda ................................. 105
Figure 7.1: The Fra mew ork for Implementa tion of The Na tiona l Vis ion..... ......... . 117
Figure 7.2: P ropo sed S eq uencing of Na tiona l Vis ion 2040 P riorities ................... 118
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
11/136
| XIU G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
B OP B a la nce of P a yment
B P O B us iness P roc ess Outsourc ing
B TVET B us ines s , Te chnic a l a nd Vo ca tio na l Ed uc a tio n a nd Tra ining
C AD/C AM C omputer Aid ed Des ig n a nd Ma nufa c turing
C IID Crimina l Intelligence a nd Inves tiga tions Direc tory
C NDP F C omprehens ive Na tiona l Development P la nning Fra mew ork
C OMES A C ommon Ma rket for Ea s t a nd S outhern Afric a
DP P Direc tor of P ublic P rosecution
EAC Ea s t Afric a n C ommunity
EAC C M Ea st Afric a n C ommunity C ommon Ma rket
ENR Environmenta l a nd Na tura l Resourc es
EP RC Ec onomic P olicy Resea rch C entre
ERP Ec onomic Recovery P rog ra m
FAO Food a nd Agric ultura l Orga niza tion
FDI Foreig n Direc t Inves tments
FG M Fema le G enita l Mutila tion
G DI G ender Rela ted Development Index
G DP G ross Domes tic P roduct
G KMA G rea ter Ka mpa la Metropolita n Area
G MOs G enetica lly Modified Orga nisms
HDI Huma n Development Index
HP P s Hydro P ow er P la nts
HRD Huma n Resource Development
IC T Informa tion C ommunica tions Tec hnology
IDP s Interna lly Displa ced P eople
IRWR Interna l Renew a ble Wa ter Resources
IS O Interna tiona l Orga niza tion for S ta nda rdiza tion
IT Informa tion Tec hnolog y
ITES Informa tion Tec hnolog y Ena bled S ervic es
kWh Kilo Wa tt hour
LDC s Low Developed Countries
LIS T OF AC RONYMS
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
12/136
XII | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
LG Loca l G overnment
LG DP s Loca l G overnment Development P la nsLP G Liq uefied P etroleum G a s
M &E Monitoring a nd Eva lua tion
MDAs Minis tries Depa rtments a nd Agenc ies
MEAs Multila tera l Environmenta l Agreements
MG LS D Minis try of G ender La bor a nd S oc ia l Development
MIC E Meetings Incentives Conferences and Events
Mo FP ED Minis try o f Fina nc e P la nning a nd Ec ono mic Develo pment
MS MEs Mic ro, S ma ll a nd Medium s ized Enterpris esMW Meg a Wa tt
NAPA Na tiona l Ada pta tion P la n of Action
NDP Na tiona l Development P la n
NDP s Na tiona l Development P la ns
NES AP New Ec onomy S kills for Afric a P rogra mme
NPA Na tiona l P la nning Authority
P EAP P overty Era dic a tion Action P la n
R&D Resea rch a nd DevelopmentS &T S cience a nd Tec hnolog y
S ADC S outhern Afric a n Development C ommunity
S AP S truc tura l Adjus tment P rogra m
S EZs S pec ia l Economic Zones
S G B V S exua l a nd G ender B a sed Violence
S MEs S ma ll a nd Medium Enterprises
S TI S c ience Technology a nd Innova tion
S TEI S cience Technology Eng ineering a nd Innova tionTAI Technology Achievement Index
UB OS Uga nda B urea u of S ta tis tic s
UMI Upper Middle Inc ome
UNFC C C United Na tio ns Fra mew ork C onventio n o n C lima te C ha ng e
UNFPA United Na tions Fund for P opula tion Ac tivities
UNHS Uga nda Na tiona l Household S urvey
US D United S ta tes Dolla rs
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
13/136
| XIIIU G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
EXEC UTIVE S UMMARY
Uganda Vision 2040 provides develop-
ment paths a nd s tra tegies to operation-
alize Ugandas Vision statement which
is A Transformed Ugandan Socie-
ty from a Peasant to a Modern and
Prosperous Country within 30 years
a s a pproved by C a binet in 2007. It a ims
a t tra nsforming Ug a nda from a predo m-
ina ntly pea sa nt and low inco me c ountryto a competitive upper middle income
country.
It builds on the progress that has been
ma de in a dd ress ing the strategic bottle-
necks that have co nstra ined Uga nda s
socio-economic development sinceindependence, including; ideological
disorientation, weak private sector, un-
derdeveloped human resources, inade-
quate infrastructure, small market, lack
of industrialization, underdeveloped
services sector, underdevelopment
of agriculture, and poor democracy,
among others.
The Vis ion 2040 is c onc eptua lized
a round s trengthening the funda menta ls
of the economy to harness the abun-
dant opportunities around the country.
The identified opportunities inc lude: o il
a nd g a s , tourism, minerals, IC T bus i-
ness , ab unda nt la bour force, g eog ra ph-
ica l loc a tion a nd tra de, w a ter res ource s,
industrialisation, and agriculture amongothers that are to date considerably
under-exploited. Achieving the transfor-
mational goal will thus depend on the
countrys capacity to strengthen the
fundamentals including: infrastructure
(energy, transport, water, oil and gas,
a nd IC T); S c ienc e, Tec hnolog y, Engi-
neering a nd Innova tion (S TEI); land use
a nd ma nag ement; urba nisa tion; huma n
resource; and peace, security and de-
fence.
Projections indicate that Uganda will
graduate into a lower middle income
co untry b y 2017, progres s ing to a n up-
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
14/136
XIV | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
per midd le inco me c a teg ory by 2032 a nd
a tta ining its ta rget o f US D9500 in 2040.
P rojec tions further indic a te tha t Ug a nda
will be a first world country in the next
fifty yea rs . To a c hieve this trans forma-
tion the average real GDP growth rate
will have to be consistent at about 8.2
per cent per annum translating into to-
tal GDP of about USD 580.5bn with a
projected population of 61.3 million in
2040.
Uganda Vision 2040 identifies key core
projects that need to be started includ-
ing:
A Hi-tec h IC T c ity a nd a ssoc ia ted IC T
infrastructure; La rge irriga tion s chemes in different
pa rts o f the c ountry;
P hos pha te indus try in Tororo;
Iron o re indus try in Muko, Kab a le;
Five regiona l c ities ( G ulu, Mba le,
Kampa la , Mba ra ra , and Arua) a nd five
s tra tegic cities ( Hoima , Na ka song ola ,
Fortportal, Moroto, a nd J inja );
Four internat iona l a irports ;
A sta nda rd ga uge ra ilwa y network
w ith high speed tra ins;
Oil Refinery and a ss oc ia ted pipeline
infrastructure;
Multi-la ne paved na tiona l roa d net
w ork linking ma jor tow ns , c ities a nd
other s tra teg ic loc a tions ;
G lob a lly competitive skills
developme nt centres ;
Nuclea r pow er a nd hydro pow er
pla nts (Aya g o, Isimb a ,
Ka ruma , a nd Murchiso n B a y);
S cience a nd Tec hnolog y pa rks in
ea c h reg iona l c ity;
Internat iona l a nd na tiona l referra l
hos pita ls in ea ch reg iona l c ities
However, to achieve all this, some key
strate gies a nd po lic y reforms must ta ke
pla c e. Thes e inc lude:
Review the architec ture of go vern-
ment service delivery s ystem to a ct a s aunit, ha rnes s synergies a nd de liver pub-
lic services efficiently and effectively.
P ursue po licies a imed a t lea pfrog ging
es pec ia lly in the a rea s of S c ienc e, Tec h-
nology, innovation, and engineering;
human resource development; public
sec tor ma nag ement; a nd private s ector
development.
Develop a nd implement a Na tiona l
science technology and engineering
system that will help in initiating, im-
porting, modifying and diffusing new
technologies.
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
15/136
| XVU G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
Front-loa d inves tments in infra s truc -
ture ta rge ting a rea s of ma ximum op por-
tunities w ith foc us on o il, energy, trans -
po rt a nd IC T.
Accelerate indus tria liza tion throug h
upgrading and diversification to effec-
tively harness local resources, offshor-
ing industries and develop industrial
clus ters a long value c hains .
Make la nd reforms to fa cilita te fas ter
acquisition of land for planned urbani-
sa tion, infra s tructure developme nt, a nd
agricultural commercialisation among
other developme nts.
P ursue a pla nned urba niza tion polic y
that will bring about better urban sys-
tems that enhance productivity, liv-
a bility a nd susta ina bility w hile relea s ing
la nd for c ommercia lizing a g riculture.
S trengthen the three a rms of go vern-ment and ensure checks and balances
and taking decisions that have national
interes t: first, minis ters w ill not b e me m-
bers of Parliament to foster separation
of powers; and second, the judiciary
will be reformed to make it more inde-
pendent a nd proac tive.
Develop a nd nurture a na tiona l value
system to change citizens mind sets,
promote patriotism, enhance national
identity and nurture a conducive ideo-
log ic a l orienta tion.
Ac ce lerate g overnment reforms in the
educ a tion s ys tem a nd the c urric ulum to
obtain a globally competitive human re-
source with skills relevant to the devel-
opment pa ra digm.
Review a nd s trengthen the foreign
policy to enhance collaboration in ac-
co rda nce w ith existing a nd future a gree-
ments, standards and protocols withinthe fra mew ork of Ea s t Africa n C ommu-
nity, other regional blocs, African Union
and global community, for the realisa-
tion of this Vision.
Direc tly invest in strateg ic a rea s to
stimulate the economy and facilitate
private s ec tor grow th.
Develop a nd implement a spec ific p ol-
icy to attract and retain top rated pro-
fessionals in the Universities to make
Uganda a Center of Excellence in Edu-
ca tion in the reg ion.
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
16/136
XVI | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
Estab lish a Uga nda infra structure fund
to significantly lower the cost of infra-
structure development.
Develop a universa l hea lth insura nce
system through public private partner-
ship.
The Vis ion impleme nta tion w ill be
spea rhea ded by H.E The P res ident b ut
rema ins a res po ns ibility o f every c itizen
in g overnment, priva te sec tor, c ivil soc i-
ety, po litic a l orga nisa tions a nd a ny oth-
er institutions. As already noted, it will
be implemented in line with the com-
prehensive National Development Plan-
ning Framework. Interventions will besequenced and detailed in the 5-year
national development plans and annual
budgets.
The fina nc ing of this Vis ion w ill be ma in-
ly by the government, CSOs, develop-
ment partners and the private sector.
Government will mobilise resources
using conventional and innovative non-
conventiona l mea ns o f fina ncing. Thes e
will include; tax and non-tax revenues,
revenue from oil a nd g a s , P ublic P rivate
Partnerships, concessional loans and
grants, borrowing from domestic and
interna tiona l ma rkets . The revenue from
oil a nd g a s w ill be used to kic k sta rt ma -
jor infrastructure development projects
to enhance the countrys competitive-
ness . The d ome stic a nd interna tiona l
borrowing shall include; domestic and
sovereign infrastructure bonds, venture
a nd investment funds .
There w ill be reg ula r review, monito r-
ing a nd eva lua tion of Vis ion 2040 in line
w ith the mec ha nisms provide d for in the
Comprehensive National Development
P la nning Fra mew ork policy.
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
17/136
| 1U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
1Chapter
Kiprotich w ins a gold med-
al and raises the Uganda
Flag high at the London
Olymp ics 2012
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
18/136
2 | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
INTRODUC TION
C h a p t e r
1.1. Background
1. Uga nda covers a n a rea of
241,038 square kilometers of which
about a third is covered by fresh water
bodies and wetlands. It is mainly a pla-
teau astride the equator with favorable
tropical climate and average tempera-
ture rang ing from 18 to 28 de grees c en-
tigrade. It is endowed with numerous
na tura l res ource s .
2. The co untry ha s a rela tively
young population with about 60 per
cent below 18 years of age and a total
population estimated at 32 million peo-
ple (UBOS 2010). About 51 per cent of
this are female. Uganda is a peaceful,
stable and secure country. It is under
a multi-party democratic dispensation
with a decentralized governance sys-
tem.
3. Over the la st three dec ades ,
the economy has moved from recovery
to growth based on short-to-medium
term planning and the country imple-
mented a number of economic poli-
c ies inc luding the S tructura l Adjustment
Programs(SAPs), Economic Recovery
Program (ERP) and the Poverty Eradi-ca tion Action P la n (P EAP ). As a res ult
the GDP growth has since 2002 been
susta ined a t a n avera ge of 6.4 per cent.
The ma c ro-ec ono my ha s rema ined rel-
atively stable with inflation rates main-
ta ined a t s ing le d ig it level w hile public fi-
nance a nd moneta ry policies have b een
well ma nag ed.
4. A review o f g lo ba l d evelo pment
paths however, shows that long term
planning is a key factor in propelling
social-economic development and eq-
uitable distribution of wealth in many
countries all over the world. A number
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
19/136
| 3U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
of Asian countries such as Malaysia,
S inga pore, S outh Korea a nd Thaila nda mong others, a dopted long term pla n-
ning to guide their development paths.
The long term pla nning helped to guide
these Governments to intervene sys-
tematically and through multiple ap-
proa ches to foster grow th.
5. Uga nda s pla nning ha s been
characterized by different approaches.
The mixed ec onomy a pproa c h to d evel-
opment was a key feature of Ugandas
economic development during 1962-
1971. During this period, two medium-
term plans were developed. However,
this development planning path wasinterrupted by the Eco nomic Wa r in
the 1970s . The ea rly 1980s s a w the
introduction of the Structural Adjust-
ment Program (SAP) and then the Eco-
nomic Rec overy P rog ram (ERP ) in 1987.
Between 1997 and 2008, the Poverty
Eradication Action Plan (PEAP) was theoverarching planning framework for the
country.
6. In 1999 a nd 2007, Ug anda de-
velope d long term pe rsp ec tive d evelop-
ment plans, Vision 2025 and draft Vi-
s ion 2035, res pec tively. How ever, thes e
were not operationalized mainly due
to absence of appropriate policy, legal
and institutional framework, and lack ofownership at different levels of leader-
ship. Furthermore, the development
approach and the economic thinking
at that time coupled with both external
a nd interna l fac tors c ould no t a llow their
implementation.
1.2. Context and Rationale
7. In 2007, G overnment a dopted a
Comprehensive National Development
Planning Framework which provides
for the d evelopment of a 30-yea r Vis ion
tha t w ill be implemented throug h: three
10-year plans; six 5-year National De-
velopment Plans (NDPs); Sector Invest-ment Plans (SIPs); Local Government
Development Plans (LGDPs); Annual
w ork pla ns ; a nd B udg ets . The first five
yea r Na tiona l Developme nt P la n ope ra -
tionalising this Vision was launched in
April 2010.
8. In line with this policy, the Vision
2040 consolidates the previous efforts,
lessons learnt and analysis of our past
developme nt strateg ies a nd future pros-
pects. It takes into account emerging
development opportunities including
the disc overy of oil a nd g a s res erves , E-
revolution, globalization and economicintegration, a mong others.
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
20/136
4 | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
9. It a ls o g ives a unified d irec tio n
for the co untry, mobilises peo ple a nd re-sources to a chieve a c ommon goa l, a nd
faster socio-economic transformation
by focusing on specific areas of maxi-
mum opportunity. This Vis ion the refo re,
w ill a s s is t the c ountry to repos ition he r-
self w ithin the g lob a l sphere.
1.3. The Vision
10. Uga nd a s Vis io n is A tra ns-
formed Ugandan society from a peas-
a nt to a modern and pros perous c ountry
w ithin 30 yea rs . This involves c ha ng ing
from a predominantly low income to a
c ompetitive upper midd le income c oun-
try within 30 years. It is envisaged that
the country will graduate to the middle
income segment by 2017 and reach a
per ca pita of US D 9,500 by 2040.
11. The Vision a tt ributes , which are
consistent with the principles of the
Constitution, are: (a) independence andsovereignty; (b) democracy and the rule
of law ; (c) s ta bility a nd pea ce; (d) know l-
edgeable and skilled; (e) able to exploit
a nd use its reso urce s g a infully a nd s us-
tainably; (f) in a strong federated East
Africa with an effective African Com-
mon Market and a strong African De-
fence Mechanism.
12. To rea lize this Vis ion, Uganda
w ill need to increas e its G DP by o ver 30times in the next 30 years to attain the
level of de velopment o bs erved in Uppe r
Middle Inc ome (UMI) c ountries . An a na l-
ysis of these countries development
paths and assessment of Ugandas
development potential confirms that it
is possible for the country to attain an
upper middle income status within the
next 30 yea rs.
13. Vis ion 2040 is conceptua lized
on harnessing strategic opportunities
by strengthening the relevant funda-
mentals capable of maximizing returns
to the e cono my. The identified opportu-
nities in this Vision include; oil and gas,
tourism, minerals, ICT bus ines s , a bun-
da nt la bo ur forc e, ge og ra phic a l loc a tion
and trade, water resources, industri-
alisation, and agriculture. On the other
hand, the fundamentals include: infra-
s tructure for (energy, transpo rt, wa ter, oila nd g a s , a nd ICT); S c ienc e, Tec hnolog y,
Engineering a nd Innova tion (S TEI); la nd
use a nd ma nag ement; urba nisa tion; hu-
ma n reso urce; a nd pea ce, s ecurity and
defence.
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
21/136
| 5U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
1.4. Challenges to Ugandas De-
velopment
14. C urrently Ug a nd a s d evelo p-
ment is co nstra ined b y a number of fa c-
tors including;
a . Low Competitivenes s; a coun-
trys competitiveness is the ability to
produce g oods a nd services that c a n befavourab ly tra ded on the globa l ma rket.
It positions a country at an advantage
tow a rds a ttra cting investments . The
fac tors tha t defines c ompe titiveness in-
clude; institutions , p olicies, a nd fac tors
that determine the level of productiv-
ity o f a c ountry. Thes e a re; Ins titutions ;Innovation; Infrastructure; Microeco-
nomic environme nt; Hea lth a nd p rima ry
education; Higher education and train-
ing; goods market efficiency; Financial
ma rket d evelopment; Tec hnolog ic a l
readiness; Market size; Labour market
efficiency; and business sophistication.
Based on these factors, Uganda was
ra nked 121 out o f 142 countries in terms
of overall competitiveness of its goods
a nd servic es by the World Eco nomic
Forum in 2010. To deve lop a s trong pri-
vate sector and be able to attract For-
eign Direct Investments, Uganda has to
improve on the above factors.
b . Wea k public sec tor ma na ge-
ment and administration; Public Sec-tor Management and administration is
characterised by weak policy, legal and
regulatory frameworks; weak institu-
tiona l s tructures a nd sys tems ; overs ized
public a dminis tra tion; w ea k civil soc iety
and civic participation; inadequate data
and information; inadequate stand-
ards and weak quality infrastructure;
overlapping mandates; limited social
protection and support systems; and
wea k manag ement of environment and
clima te c hang e. This is exa ce rba ted a
weak; decentralisation system, slow
implementation characterised by long
procurement cycles, poor enforcement
of sta nda rds a nd regula tions, a nd inef-
fective monitoring and evaluation.
c . Id eo lo g ic a l d is orienta tio n; c o un-
tries that have attained upper middle
income status have clear and well de-
fined national ideologies. Our politicalhistory has not provided clear ideologi-
cal direction to guide the countrys de-
velopment pa th. This ha s led to fa ilure
to establish and implement a national
va lue sys tem. The va lue sys tems incul-
cate values such as; patriotism, work
ethics, integrity, positive attitudes and
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
22/136
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
23/136
| 7U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
denied the c ountry long te rm a nd c hea p
investment ca pita l.
j. Unfa voura ble Demog ra phic s
Profile; Uganda has one of the young-
est populations in the world with nearly
half of them a ged below 15 years d ue to
a historically high and constant fertility
rate of about 6.7 children per woman.
This ha s res ulted in a n unfavo ura ble
demographic profile made up largely
of dependa nts. These d ependa nts a re
either too young to work, and yet they
consume the bulk of public services. In
addition, the high growth rates arising
out of the high fertility are putting pres-
sure on d elivery of se rvic es such a s ed -ucation and health.
1.5 Structure of the Document
15. Chapte r one o f this Vis ion covers
the background, context, Vision thrust
and also discusses the challenges to
development that the country faces.
The S ec ond c ha pter loo ks a t the Vis ion
aspirations and targets, and policy re-
forms to be undertaken. Chapter three
on the other hand covers the growth
trends a nd key Ma c ro-eco nomic s tra te-
gies. Chapter four presents the identi-
fied oppo rtunities a nd the funda menta ls
that need to be strengthened in order
to harness these opportunities. Chap-
ter Five discusses social transforma-
tion while chapter six covers the gov-
ernance tra ns formation req uired . The
last Chapter covers implementation of
thes e s trateg ies over the Vis ion pe riod .
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
24/136
8 | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
Chapter2
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
25/136
| 9U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
THE VIS ION AS P IRATIONS ,
P RINC IP LES , TARG ETS AND P OLIC YS HIFTS
2.1. Aspirations
16. Na t io nw id e c onsulta t io ns w e re
co nducte d involving various s ta kehold-
ers a nd consensus w as reac hed on the
following aspirations for Ugandas fu-
ture development.
a . Uga nda ns as pire to live a nd
work in a peaceful, secure, harmoni-
ous and stable country, and at peace
with its neighbours, where the rule ofla w preva ils a nd res pec t for funda men-
tal human rights is observed. Ugan-
da ns w a nt a co rruption free na tion w ith
strong democratic structures and sys-
tems empowered to be in charge of
their ow n des tiny.
b . Ug anda ns a spire to ha ve unity
in diversity and equal opportunities ir-
respective of gender, tribe, ethnicity or
religion. Uga nda ns a spire for a prog res -
sive and developmental culture that
blends traditional beliefs and national
values. Ugandans aspire for a future
in which men, women, youth, children,
and persons with disabilities are em-
powered to participate as equal part-
ners in development.
c . Uga nda ns des ire to be re-
sourceful and prosperous nationals
contributing to national development
through gainful employment, savings
and investments. Ugandans desire to
earn high incomes and have a stable
ec ono mic environme nt. They a spire to
be p a rt of a s trong Eas t Africa n Fed era -tion.
C h a p t e r
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
26/136
10 | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
d. Uga nda ns des ire to ha ve a ccessto affordable quality health and educa-
tion services. Ugandans aspire for a
healthy, literate and well informed soci-
ety. We d es ire to live in clea n a nd w ell
planned settlements with access to all
social amenities. Uganda aspires to be
a soc iety free o f hunger with strong s o-
cia l sa fety nets.
e. Ug anda ns des ire to ha ve w orld
class infrastructure and services, and
mod ern technolog y to improve produc -
tivity and production. Ugandans also
aspire to have access to clean, afford-
able and reliable energy sources to fa-
c ilita te indus tria liza tion.
f. Uga nda ns des ire a g reen econ-
omy and clean environment where the
ecosystem is sustainably managed
a nd the livea bility of the urba n s ys tems
grea tly improved .
g . Ug anda ns a spire for a hig hly
moral and ethical society whose citi-
zens a re s trong in relig ious a nd s piritua l
values, and instilled with the highest of
ethical standards. A society in which
people practise and profess their cus-
toms, cultures and religious beliefs and
yet, feeling that they belong to one na-
tion. A soc iety w ith res ourceful a nd s ta -
ble fa mily units .
17. The se a sp ira t io ns , a s w ell a semerging development opportunities
and global trends, provide a basis and
foundation for the realisation of the Vi-
s ion 2040.
2.2. Principles of Vision 2040
2.2.1 Ownership
18. The realisa tion of Vision 2040
requires the wholehearted support of
a ll s ta keholde rs . The s a me a pplies to
the subsequent National Development
Plans derived from this vision and in-
tended to achieve its goals and ob-
jec tives . The o w nership is not o nly for
the formulation process but also for asmooth and successful implementation
of programmes, projects and other ini-
tiatives.
2.2.2 Political Will
19. Vis ion 2040 requires s t rong
backing from the political leadership at
all levels.
2.2.3 Good Governance
20. G o o d g o ve rna nc e is the p os itive
exercise of authority. It is characterized
by citizen trans forma tion a nd p a rtic ipa -
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
27/136
| 11U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
tion in governance, control of corrup-
tion, political stability, and respect forthe rule of law, Government effective-
ness, regulatory quality and effective
knowledge management. It is a prereq-
uisite for achieving the required growth
rates and therefore social transforma-
tion. Good governance is therefore of
paramount importance for successful
implementa tion of Vis ion 2040.
2.2.4 Resource Availability
21. It will be extremely important to
ensure the availability of resources for
implementing the planned prog ra mmes .
This w ill req uire ta king mea sures to
eliminate wasteful spending, fightingcorruption, intensifying accountability,
improving the allocation of resources,
increasing efficiency in the use of re-
sourc es a nd g iving mo re a ttention to e f-
fectiveness through monitoring and re-
view s . Mob ilis a tion of do mes tic revenue
w ill be enha nced .
2.2.5 Balanced Development
22. While recognis ing tha t the econ-
omy will reflect Ugandas comparative
advantage, implementation of the Vi-
sion 2040 will encourage the harness-
ing of key opportunities by strengthen-
ing the necessary fundamentals. In this
way the countrys targeted growth willnot hinge on a few sectors, as many
others w ill ha ve the pote ntia l to c ontrib-
ute to grow th.
23. The se co nd dimens io n o f b a l-
anced development is linked to ensur-
ing tha t a ll reg ions of the c ountry bene fit
from growth of the national economyby equitably using national resources,
better infrastructure and other develop-
ment projects to realise higher invest-
ments levels required to fight poverty,
promote social equity and harmony.
The o ther dimension o f eq uity is promo -
tion o f gende r a nd huma n rights . The
Vision follows various international con-ventions and resolutions that promote
equal opportunities and enjoyment of
human rights for both men and wom-
en. Gender, disability and human rights
mainstreaming are a core part of the
pla nning proc es s
2.2.6 Behaviour Change
24. B e ha vio ur c ha ng e is need ed in
many public and private sector groups
a s w ell a s in ma ny citizens , a nd is c rucia l
for ra pid e co nomic growth a nd trans for-
ma tion. The peo ple w ill need to a do pt a
new attitude to public property, assets,
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
28/136
12 | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
amenities and the environment and be
pa triot ic to their c ountry. They s hould
demonstrate and exercise concern for
other citizens , e spec ia lly the elde rly, the
disa bled, a nd children. This inc ludes
being committed to promoting gender
eq uality so that men, wome n, boys a nd
girls have equal opportunities and ac-
cess to resources. Ugandans should
start appreciating hard work, discipline,time management and patriotism.
2.2.7 Linkage with the National
Planning Processes
25. The road to trans formation w ill
require careful planning and commit-
ment o f res ource s . This Vis ion 2040 isexpected to be an all encompassing
perspective plan for the thirty years,
w hich w ill a lso a ct a s a guide to a ny fu-
ture pla nning . In essenc e, a ll minis tries ,
departments and autonomous and
semi-autonomous entities will realign
their deve lop ment p riorities w ith the Vi-
sion.
2.2.8 Sustainable and Equitable
Development
26. S us ta ina b le d evelo pment is
about using resources to meet human
needs while preserving the environ-
ment. For several decades, develop-
ment has c onc entra ted on improvement
and advancement of economic, social
cultura l a nd po litica l cond itions a nd les s
on pres erving the environment. This ha s
resulted into global warming and other
a dverse environmenta l c onditions a s so -
cia ted w ith clima te cha nge. Less focus
on gender inequalities has also often
promoted discrimination against thefema le s ex. The implementa tion of the
Vision should ensure sustainable and
eq uita ble d evelopme nt.
27. The des ign and implementa t ion
of the Vision emphasizes sustainable
development through preservation of
natural resources such as forests andwetlands. Access to basic needs such
as education, health services, food,
housing and the equitable distribution
of incomes among all citizens shall be
promote d. As p a rt of implementing s us-
tainable development, every person
shall be assured of a life of dignity, in-
cluding a life in a society that respects
and helps realize human rights.
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
29/136
| 13U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
2.2.9 Effective Implementation,
Monitoring and Evaluation
Mechanism
28. In the c ourse of the imple me n-
tation of the various Vision 2040 initia-
tives, it will be important to determine
w hether or not the co untry is on c ourse
towards achieving its goals and objec-
tives, whether or not progress is beingma de a nd s ucc ess being registered. An
effective implementation mechanism
should lead to the achievement of the
goa ls a nd objec tives . To this e nd, e ffec -
tive monitoring and evaluation will be
underta ken to provide releva nt informa-
tion w hic h w ill be use d to fine-tune, re-
orient, or otherwise alter the proposed
initia tives . Effec tive M&E is importa nt
for measuring and reporting progress
towards the planned objectives and re-
la ted ta rgets .
2.3. Vision 2040 Targets
29. In line with Vision 2040 and hav-
ing b enchma rked it w ith se lec ted UpperMidd le Inc ome (UMI) countries tha t ha ve
achieved similar level of development
status, a number of socio-economic in-
dicators and targets have been devel-
oped for Uga nda . Ta ble 2.1 pres ents the
ba seline a nd d es ired ta rge ts. These de-
velopment targets are reference points
Table 2.1: Baseline Status and Vision Targets
No. Development IndicatorBaseline
Status:2010
Target2040
P er c a pita inc ome US D 506 US D 9500
Percentage of population below thepoverty line
24.5 5
Income dis tribution(G INI Coeffic ient) 0.43 0.32
S ectoral compo sition o fG DP (%)
Agric ulture 22.4 10.4
Indus try 26.4 31.4
S ervic es 51.2 58.2
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
30/136
14 | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
Labor force distribution inline with sectoralcontribution (%)
Ag riculture 65.6 31
Indus try 7.6 26
S ervices 26.8 43
% sha re of na tiona l la bor force employed 70.9 94
Ma nufac tured exports a s a % of total
exports
4.2 50
G ross C a pita l Forma tion a s % of G DP 24.1 30
S a ving a s a % of G DP 14.5 35
IC T go od s &se rvic es a s a % of tota lexport
0 40
Tec hnolog y up-ta ke &diffus ion(Tec hnolog y Ac hieveme nt Index (TAI))
0.24 0.5
P ublic expend iture a s a % sha re o f R&Dto GDP
0.1 2.5
Innova tion a s mea sured by pa tentsreg is tered per yea r
3 6000
Elec tric ity consumption (kWh per ca pita ) 75 3668
% popula tion w ith a c cess to elec tric ity 11 80
Water consumption (m3per ca pita ) 26 600
% population with access to safe pipedwa ter
15 100
% of sta nda rd pa ved roa ds to tota l roa dnetwork
4 80
% of c a rgo freig ht on ra il to to ta l freight 3.5 80
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
31/136
| 15U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
% of population in plannedsettlements
Urba n 51 100
Rura l 0 100
% level of urba niza tion 13 60
La bo r P rod uctivity (G DP
pe r Worker - US D)
Agriculture 390 6,790
Indus try 3,550 24,820
S ervices 1,830 25,513
Tota l 1,017 19,770
Life expec ta ncy a t b irth (yea rs) 51.5 85
Infa nt morta lity ra te per 1000 live b irths 63 4
Materna l mo rta lity ra te per 100,000 livebirths
438 15
Under 5 morta lity ra te per 1000 96 8
C hild s tunting a s a % of under 5s 33 0
Litera cy Ra te (%) 73 95
G ender Rela ted Development Index (G DI) 0.51 0.9
P opula tion g row th ra te 3.2 2.4
Fores t C over (% la nd Area ) 15 24
Wetla nd C over - % of to ta l a rea 8 13
C orruption P erc eption Index 2.5 7.1
S ource : NPA projec tions a nd b ench ma rked d a ta from va rious so urce s.
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
32/136
16 | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
2.4. Required Policy Reforms and
Shifts
30. Over the Vis ion period , the
planning approach will be based on
harnessing strategic opportunities bystrengthening the relevant fundamen-
tals that facilitate maxima returns from
the o pportunities . This w ill be c oupled
w ith increa s ing the level of the c ountrys
competitiveness to enable production
of globally competitive goods and ser-
vices. In addition, efforts will be geared
towards improving social development
indicators while strengthening govern-
a nce s yste ms a nd s tructures . To a tta in
this Vision all development plans at all
levels shall follow this planning ap-
proa ch to foster fa ster so cio-economic
transformation.
31. A q ua s i-ma rke t a p pro a c h, w hic h
includes a mix of Government invest-
ments in strategic areas and private
sector market driven actions, will be
pursue d . The priva te s ec tor w ill rema in
the engine of growth and development.
Government will continue its facilitat-
ing role in provis ion o f co nducive polic y,
regulatory and institutional framework.
Government will also promote and en-
c ourag e pub lic-priva te pa rtnerships in a
rational manner. Furthermore, Govern-
ment will invest in strategic areas and
a rea s of na tiona l interes t. In a dd ition,
the G overnment w ill continue to pursue
outward-oriented policies by encour-
aging foreign investments and exports
with high value addition, as well aspursuing sound macroeconomic policy
and management.
32. There sha ll be continuous re-
view and change of the architecture of
G overnment service de livery s ys tem to
enable Government act as a unit and
deliver public services that are respon-sive to the needs of the people a nd co g-
nizant of the global dynamics. Govern-
ment will a dopt a b usiness a pproa ch
in the implementa tion o f this Vis ion. The
local government service delivery sys-
tem will be reviewed and restructured
for better service delivery and wealth
creation. Continuous institutional re-
s tructuring w ill be implemented a nd the
country will adopt new public manage-
ment tec hniq ues imme dia tely. This w ill
enable Government to deliver services
more efficiently and effectively while
harnessing synergies.
to indicate the desired level of develop-
ment and social-economic transforma-
tion.
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
33/136
| 17U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
33. G o ve rnment w ill ma ke la nd re -
forms to facilitate faster acquisition of
land for planned urbanisation, infra-
structure development, and agricultural
commercialisation among other devel-
opments.
34. To a c hie ve fa s te r so c io -e c o-
nomic transformation, Government
will invest in better urban systems thatenhance productivity, liveability and
susta ina bility. Thes e urba n a rea s w ill
be centres of industrial development,
financial, trade, education and other
services that will foster economic pro-
ductivity. Uganda will strengthen urban
infrastructure and public service facili-
ties, increase the overall carrying ca-pa city of cities a nd tow ns a nd ra ise the
level of urban management and servic-
es. Government will adhere to scientific
pla nning a nd s tric t ma na ge ment. The
promotion of urbanization will enable
Government to provide better services
like basic physical infrastructure, hous-
ing a nd s oc ia l a menities . It w ill a lso free
up land for mechanized and commer-
cial agriculture.
35. G o ve rnment w ill e mp lo y a nd
support policies aimed at leapfrogging
ma ny area s o f the ec onomy. The focus
of leapfrogging will be in the areas of
science, technology, engineering and
innovation, human resource develop-
ment, public sector management, and
private sector development. In addition,
a na tiona l Innovation s ys tem w ill be de-
veloped and supported over the Vision
period.
36. To p ro vid e the ne c essa ry im-
pulse to the economy, Government will
embark on front-loading of investmentsin infra s tructure. The key infra s truc-
ture areas will be in oil and gas, energy,
tra nsport, w a ter for prod uction, S TEI
a nd IC T.
37. G o ve rnment w ill re fo rm a nd
optimize the industrial structure while
establishing a modern industrial sys-tem that will give impetus to industrial
transformation. Efforts will be geared
to transforming and upgrading manu-
facturing industries and technology
upgrading in enterprises. Uganda will
accelerate the cultivation and develop-
ment of strategic emerging industries
inc luding the ne xt g enerat ion IT indus-
tries, aerospace industries, integration
of telecommunication network and in-
ternet. Government will give impetus to
the development of industries in areas
of new materials industries, bio-tech-
nolog y, hea vy indus tries a nd e q uipment
manufacturing.
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
34/136
18 | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
38. A policy on the na t iona l va lue
system will be developed and imple-
mented to address the current ideo-
logical disorientation, citizens attitudes
and mind sets, non-progressive cultural
practices to nurture patriotism and na-
tiona l unity. This w ill produce a res po n-
sive and productive citizenry required
for tra ns formation. There is nee d to
foster a sense of optimism, unyieldingspirit and a call to fulfil our constitution-
al duties and responsibilities as citizens
using every a va ila ble op portunity.
39. G o ve rnment w ill re vie w a nd
strengthen foreign policy to enhance
collaboration in accordance with exist-
ing and future agreements, standardsand protocols within the framework of
Eas t Africa n C ommunity, o ther reg iona l
blocs, African Union and global com-
munity, for the rea lis a tion of this Vis ion.
40. To s treng then the three a rms
of government and ensure checks and
balances, and taking decisions that
have national interest: first, ministers
will not be members of Parliament to
foster sepa ra tion of pow ers; and sec -
ond, the judiciary will be reformed to
make it more proactive.
41. Government w ill review deve l-
opment financing policies to facilitate
faster accumulation of development
infra s tructure. The sources o f funding
will include; tax and non-tax revenues,
Public Private Partnerships (PPPs),
co nces siona l loa ns a nd g ra nts, revenue
from oil and gas and borrowing from
do mes tic a nd internat iona l ma rkets . Ini-
tially, government will make extra effortto increa se domes tic tax revenue a s the
main mode of financing Government
expenditure. Government together with
Development Partners will also explore
a lterna tive fina ncing mec ha nisms to a c-
ce ss signific a nt funds from c omme rcial
and investment banks at concessional
terms for front-loading infrastructuredevelopment. One of the alternative fi-
nancing mec hanisms is to use g ra nts to
sub sidize a nd low er the interes t ra tes of
co mmercia l loa ns.
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
35/136
| 19U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
3Chapter
Industrialisation will be
critical in absorbing thecountrys labour force.
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
36/136
20 | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
G ROWTH TRENDS AND
MAC ROEC ONOMIC S TRATEG IES
3.1. Growth Trends
42. Ug a nd a s ec ono mic g ro wth
performa nce s ince the 1960(s ) ha s b een
rela tively slow c ompa red to s ome o f the
East Asian countries which were at the
sa me level of developme nt, for example,
South Korea and Malaysia (see figure
3.1). Over a period of nearly 50 years,
Uga ndas G DP per ca pita increas ed
Source: World Bank online database
Figure 3.1: Ugandas Comparative Growth Performance with Selected UMICountries
C h a p t e r
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
37/136
| 21U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
from USD 63.8 in 1962 to only USD
506 in 2010. On the other hand, South
Korea GDP per capita increased from
US D103 to US D 21, 000 over the sa me
period.
43. The G D P g ro w th ha s va rie d o ve r
the period with the highest average
growth experienced between 2005 and
2010 as shown in figure 3.2. Although
growth in per capita income has been
slow, the real GDP (billions of Dollars)
ha s bee n s tea dily increas ing s ince 1986
exc ept fo r period of 1988 to 2002 due to
re-basing. Since 2003, the cumulative
growth gradient has been steeper an
indication that the country is in a clear
stage of take-off.
Figure 3.2: GDP & GDP Per-Capita Trends (1962 - 2010)
Source: World Bank online database
44. The main d rivers o f the g rowth as
depicted in figure 3.3 have been posts
and telecommunications, construction
and mining sectors. More recently, the
growth of the telecommunication and
mining sectors have been instrumental
in the c ountrys g row th la rgely d riven b y
tec hnolog y improvements in IC T a nd in-
vestme nts in oil a nd g a s s ec tor.
45. Ug a nd a s expo rts bo th b y c om-
position and value have been growing
for the last ten years. However, the im-
ports ha ve been increas ing a t fa s ter ra te
mainly due to importation of high value
consumer and investment goods thus
widening the trade deficit. As a result
the trade balance has more than dou-
Years
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
38/136
22 | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
Figure 3.3: Growth Rates of Key Sectors
Source: UBOS (Statistical Abstracts)
Figure 3.4: The Trade Balance (1990 - 2010)
Source: UBOS (Statistical Abstracts)
bled from USD1.2b in 2006 to USD2.6b
in 2010. The trend of the tra de d efic it is
a s presented in figure 3.4. The b a la nceof payments ha s a lso been unfa voura ble
w ith a de teriora ting trend in rec ent yea rs
pa rtly due to low dema nd for Uga nda s
exports in ad vanc ed e co nomies . These
exports a re ma inly c ha ra cte rized by pri-mary, low value and non-hi-tech prod-
ucts.
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
39/136
| 23U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
Table 3.1: Destination of Ugandas Exports (% of total exports)
Region 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
COMESA 27.7 26.8 30.7 33.1 53.5 58.3 61.3 59.0
Other Africa 8.6 5.7 4.8 4.0 6.8 5.1 5.6 5.2
European Union 26.3 27.3 31.1 17.7 17.4 18.2 14.6 16.9
Other Europe 14.8 17.1 10.1 3.3 4.9 6.3 4.1 3.2
North America 2.7 2.9 2.3 1.1 1.3 0.8 1.6 1.1
Middle East 3.5 5.6 10.8 13.3 10.2 5.5 4.1 6.1
Asia 9.3 8.9 7.5 5.0 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.8
South America 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Rest of the World 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
Unknown 6.6 5.7 2.5 2.4 2.0 1.9 4.2 3.4
Source: UBOS (Statistical Abst racts various issues)
47. The revenue collect ion perfor-
mance measured by tax to GDP ratio
ha s va ried. The ra tio s too d a t a bo ut 12.6
per cent in 1970/71 de c lining to 6.5 pe rcent b y 1989/90. Revenue performa nce
ha s s ince improved , pea king a t 15.8 per
cent in 2006/07 be fore d ec lining to 13.1
pe r cent in 2008/09 (UB OS ). This is s till
below the Sub-Saharan Africa average
of a bo ut 20 per cent a nd s till low er tha n
Ta nza nia a nd Kenya a t 17 per cent a nd
19.5 per cent, res pec tively (World B a nk
46. Tab le 3.1 ind ica tes tha t reg ion-
al trade is taking an increasing share
of Ugandas exports, while the Middle
East is also emerging as a major export
de s tina tion. The Europea n Union w hich
in the past was the leading destination
for Ugandas exports now accounts for
about one quarter of total exports.
online database). Domestic resources
are very critical because they help the
country to mitigate the adverse impact
of vo la tility a nd uncerta inty in a id flow s .
3.2. Ugandas Competitiveness
48. The country s competitiveness
measured by the competitiveness of its
goods and services is one of the big-
gest challenges to foster transforma-
tion. Ac cording to the World Eco nomic
Forum Global Competitive Index 2010ranks Uganda number 121 out of 142
countries. In comparison with countries
Uganda is benchmarking, our level of
competitiveness is still very low, espe-
cially in key transformational indicators
such as infrastructure, techonological
rea diness , innovation and higher educ a -
tion a nd t ra ining.
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
40/136
24 | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
Figure 3.5: Ugandas Competitivenes in Comparison with Upper Middle
Income Countries
49. The World Economic Forum,
G lob a l Competitivenes s Repo rt 2009/10
ranks Uganda 112th out of 183 coun-
tries on a w ide rang e of bus iness indica -
tors. This ranking is ba sed on ide ntifiedfac tors tha t affect the bus iness environ-
ment in a country including; registering
prope rties , tra ding a cross bo rde rs, p ro-
tecting investors, starting a business,
enforcing contracts and getting credit.
The ma jor co ns traints a ffec ting d oing
business in Uganda include; poor ac-
cess to finance, corruption, high tax
rates, inadequate supply of infrastruc-
ture, poor work ethic and Government
burea ucrac y, a s show n in figure 3.6.
Source: World Economic Forum, 2009/10
50. These cons t ra ints have hindered
the growth o f Uga nda s private sec tor. It
is still weak and has been struggling to
respond to the challenge of becoming
the eng ine of grow th in the country. As
of 2010, it is es tima ted tha t nea rly 90per
ce nt of the private sec tor are micro a nd
small enterprises yet employing over
80per cent of the total workforce in the
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
41/136
| 25U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
Figure 3. 6: Most Problematic Factors for Doing Business
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010
country and producing largely for the
do mes tic ma rket. Other bo ttlenec ks to
private sector growth include: limitedaccess and use of modern technolo-
gy; insufficient engineering manpower;
negative attitude towards work leading
to low labour productivity; limited ac-
cess to credit; insufficient incentives;
high production costs; low productivity;
and low profitability.
51. The labour force in agriculture
slightly reduced from 71.6per cent in
2005/06 to 65.6 p er c ent in 2009/10,though significant reduction was expe-
rienced in the sector share contribution
to G DP. The lab our force in the indus tria l
sector remained nearly the same over
the period . There w a s a s light increa se
in the labour force employed in the ser-
vices sector but this is not commen-
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
42/136
26 | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
Figure 3.7: Labor Force Distribution by Sectors
Source: UBOS (National Household Surveys-various years)
surate with the increase in the sectors
contribution to G DP. This ina bility o f the
industrial and service sectors to absorb
the c ountrys la bo ur forc e is a cha llenge
that shall be addressed for effective
transformation.
79.8 78.369.1 71.6 65.6
15.2 17.3
23.4 22.3 26.8
5.0 4.4 7.5 6.1 7.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1992 1999/0 2002/3 2005/6 2009/10
SizeofLabourForce(%)
Survey Year
Agriculture, forestry and fishing Services Industry
3.3. Unemployment
52. Ug a nd a ha s a big c ha lleng e o f
a labour force that is largely under or
unemployed due to inappropriate skills
a nd the slow la bour abs orptive ca pa city
of the ec onomy. The res ult ha s be en a
la rge number of unemployed youth w ho
are becoming a social and economic
threa t. The fa ilure to ma tc h the skills
needed in the economy creates a gap
in the huma n c a pita l w hic h is c ritica l for
economic and social transformation.
3.4. Growth Strategy
53. The thrus t o f Uga nd a s g ro w th
s trategy for the rea liza tion of this Vis ionis anchored around harnessing of op-
portunities by strengthening the funda-
mentals.
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
43/136
| 27U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
54. As a result o f g loba liza tion and
the unpredictability of many macro-
economic variables, it is a challenge
to estimate the macro-economic pa-
rameters over a thirty year period with
a fair de gree of a cc ura cy. This s tra tegy
provides for a broader perspective of
direction based on empirical forecasts
and benchmarking with selected UMI
countries.
55. B a s ed o n the a na lys is o f e xperi-
ences of UMI countries, global trends,
Ugandas available opportunities, cur-
rent growth trends a nd projec ted po pu-
lation growth rate, Uganda will achieve
a ta rge t of US D9500 per ca pita by 2040.
56. The pro je c te d g ro w th o ve r
the period will have a lower bound
of USD6200 and an upper bound of
USD12000. All efforts will be geared
towards enabling the country to reach
the upper bound of USD9500 as seen
from fig . 3.8. The upper bo und s c ena rio
is associated with per capita income
of about USD12,000, that is, the bor-
derline between the upper middle and
high income c ountry sta tus . The likely
sce nario is w here the per c a pita inco me
is USD9500, the average of the upper
middle income countries whose per
ca pita is a t lea s t US D 6,200. The low er
bound scenario is where per capita in-
come is USD 6,200, the average of all
uppe r midd le inc ome c ountries . The ta r-
get fo r this Vis ion therefore is to a chieve
the likely s cena rio o f US D9,500 and w ith
this scenario the countrys total GDP is
expected to be about USD580bn by
2040.
57. As sho w n in the fig ure 3.8,Uganda will graduate into a lower mid-
dle income country by 2017, progress-
ing to an upper middle income cate-
gory by 2032 and attaining its target of
USD9500 in 2040. Projections therefore
indicate that Uganda is likely to attain
a first world status within the next fifty
years.
58. The pro jec ted popula t ion g rowth
assumes implementation of the nation-
al population policy and other policy
cha nges in educa tion a nd health among
others will result into a gradual slow-
down in population growth rate from
the current 3.2 percent to 2.4 percent
per annum resulting in a population of
a bout 61million by 2040.
59. Tab le 3.2 ind ica tes es t ima tes
of nominal GDP and associated real
growth rates at which the economy is
likely to grow, to achieve the USD9500
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
44/136
28 | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
Figure
3.8:TheGrowthPathto
theUpperMiddleIncomeStatusby2040
S
ource:
NPAEs
tima
tes
2010;
506
2017;
980
2032:
4,
36
3
2040;
9,
480
02000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
-100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
GDPpercapita(US$)
GDPinUS$,Billions
Year
GDPandGDPPerCapitaTargets
UpperLimit
Target
LowerLimit
GDPperCa
pita(SecondaryAxis)
LowerMiddleIncome
Upper
MiddleIncome
LowerIncome
9500
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
45/136
| 29U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
per capita. Under this scenario eco-
nomic growth rate is expected to rise
from the current 5.7 per cent to a five
year average of 8.4per cent per annum
by the year 2025 before it gradually de-
clines to an average of 7.8per cent in
the last five years of the Vision. What
is critical in this scenario is having the
a bility to sus ta in this grow th w ith some
inbuilt momentum for high real growthduring the period. Ugandas nominal in-
come w ill g row fas ter throug h the Vis ion
period with GDP projected to multiply
by 1.5 (2015-2020) to 2.6 (2035-2040)
times every five yea rs .
60. The pro jec ted g rowth trend o f
the G DP is a c hieva ble sinc e other c oun-tries have been able to achieve even
higher growth in income at five year in-
tervals. Da ta a va ila ble from World B a nk
indic a ted tha t ma ny countries w ere a ble
to double their output every five years
in the recent years. Between 2000 and
2010 the countries such as Zambia,
Ghana, Azerbaijan, Sudan, Angola, Ka-
zakhstan, Indonesia, India, China, Ku-
wait, and Qatar were able to double
their GDP every five years for over 10
yea rs . This therefore de monstra tes the
viability of Ugandas projected growth
and consolidates support for Ugandas
bid to develop its capability to sustain
high output growth every five years in
the Vis ion period .
61. As noted in tab le 3.2, agriculture
will grow at an average rate of about
five per cent, while industry and ser-
vices sec tors will grow a t a n average of
over nine per c ent. Ug a nda w ill a chieve
this by sustaining growth in the indus-
trial sector between 8 and 10 percentper annum as a result of upgrading the
industrial structure, changing factor en-
dowments, introducing new technolo-
g ies a nd rea lignment o f infra s truc ture to
the new ec ono mic rea lities . While prior-
ity w ill be on fac ilita ting the e ntry o f new
firms in industries that are in line with
the countrys existing comparative ad-vanta ge , new o nes w ill be d eveloped in
strategic a rea s s uch as the petroc hemi-
cal industries as offshoots from the oil
refining ind us try. Agric ulture w ill be s up-
ported to trigger agro based industries,
food a nd nutrition sec urity.
62. Ac hie ving the se g ro w th ta rg ets
require targeted investment in the key
se cto rs of the ec onomy like the o il a nd
gas, manufacturing, tourism among
other sectors. In addition, sustaining
these growth rates will require contin-
ued implementation of prudent fiscal,
monetary and exchange rate policies.
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
46/136
30 | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
Table 3.2: The GDP Trend and Growth Rates Over the Vision Period
Economic
Sector
Nominal GDP at Market Prices (USD, Billions) Real GDP Growth Rates
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2012-2015
2016-2020
2021-2025
2026-2030
2031-2035
2036-2040
Total GDP 17.0 24.2 41.2 83.6 167.2 319.6 580.5 8.44 8.58 8.35 8.22 8.07 7.83
Agriculture 3.8 5.3 7.8 13.6 23.4 38.5 60.1 5.24 5.37 5.15 5.02 4.88 4.65
Industry 4.5 6.7 12.0 25.1 51.4 99.6 182.6 9.67 9.52 9.05 8.71 8.40 8.04
Services 8.7 12.1 21.5 44.9 92.5 181.5 337.8 9.30 9.35 9.05 8.85 8.65 8.37
Source: NPA, Estimates
S ignific a nt reforms w ill continuous ly b e
implemented in the financial sector in
order to increase resource mobilization
and access taking into account global
dyna mic s . Further reforms w ill be need -
ed in the trade sector and in resource
mobilization and management with the
view to reducing overhead, and overall
co s t of do ing b usiness . G overnment will
invest in collecting and providing infor-
mation in support of private investment
dec ision ma king in reg a rd to new prod -
ucts a nd tec hnolog ies . G overnment will
further facilitate coordination of invest-
ments and provide compensation for
externalities for firms that take risks
and invest in new but strategic areas,
w ithout c omp romis ing the rights a nd re-
spons ibilities of the c itizens .
63. In the early years of this Vis ion,
the exploitation of the oil and gas re-
so urc es w ill be crucia l to s pur ec onomic
grow th a nd d evelopme nt in the c ountry.
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
47/136
| 31U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
However, for the country to fully benefit
from the oil and gas resources and to
a c hieve its Vis ion w ill req uire fis ca l pru-
denc e in the use of revenues from thes e
resources.
64. Investment in key infras tructure
such as energy generation, road and
rail, and social infrastructure and in-
vestme nt in tec hnolog y enha ncing p ro-duction processes will spur productiv-
ity and hence the overall growth of the
economy.
3.5. Key Sectors that will influence
GDP Growth over the Vision period
65. Fig ure 3.9 sho w s s truc tura lchange in sector contribution to GDP
that is likely to take place up to 2040,
based on the likely growth trends sce-
nario. It show s that the services s ec-
tor is currently the la rges t c ontributo r to
G DP a nd w ill co ntinue to do minate up to
the year 2040, followed by industry and
a griculture sec tors . The ma jor trans for-
mation will however be achieved with
further movement of labour force from
a griculture to industry a nd s ervice sec -
tors. This w ill req uire a ma jor policy s hift
in the de velopment o f the indus tria l sec -
tor and investment in human capital in
Ug a nda . The co ntinued growth of sec -
tors such as the telecommunication,
construction and mining will be crucial
in d riving the g row th o f the c ountry.
66. The s t ruc tura l trans formation
of the economy will continue with the
service s se cto r contributing the highes t
proportion to G DP, follow ed by indus try
a nd a g ric ulture. In line w ith this , a d ra s-
tic c ha nge is to oc cur in the perce ntag eshares of the labour force employed in
these sec tors, w ith fa ste r redistribution
from the c urrent 65.6% in a g riculture to
the other sec tors. G overnment will fos-
ter increa sed mobility o f la bo ur throug h
creation of incentives for an increase in
releva nt tra ining a nd skills re-orienta tion
and provision of greater incentives fornot only higher innovation at firm level
but a lso increas ed fac tor prod uctivity.
3.6. Macroeconomic Strategies
67. Over the long-te rm, Government
will expand and exploit the productive
potential of the economy by ensuring
that there is appropriate growth in in-
vestment spending as a proportion of
national income, increase in growth of
priva te c a pita l a nd la bo ur utiliza tion a nd
productivity. Inc entives w ill be provided
to increase the size of the productive
labour by fostering labour mobility, in-
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
48/136
32 | U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
Figure 3. 9: Sector Shares of GDP (Actual and Forecasts)
crease research and development ac-
tivities and the utilization of research
a nd innovation prod ucts .
68. Ma inta ining ma c ro ec o no mic
stability will be critical for the imple-
mentation of Vision 2040 managed
through short and medium term instru-
ments. Macro-economic stability is a
necessary but not sufficient conditionto achieve the desired growth. Improv-
ing effic iency a nd increas ing tota l fac tor
productivity as indicated above will be
the core to achieve Vision 2040 growth
targets.
3.6.1. Savings and Investments
69. G o ve rnment w ill e nsure tha t
there a re mec hanisms to increa se gross
national savings from the current level
of 14.5 percent to about 35 percent of
G DP b y 2040. As a s ourc e of invest-
ment finance, Government will among
other things rationalize pension funds
management. Strategies will be devel-oped to promote a sa vings culture a nd
create diverse saving opportunities in
the c ountry.
(%o
fGDP)
Years
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
49/136
| 33U G A N D A V IS IO N 2 0 4 0
Figure 3.10: Savings to GDP Ratio of Selected Countries
70. Over the Vis ion period , Govern-
ment investment expenditure will in-
creas e w ell be yond the c urrent levels of
a bout 24 percent of GDP a nd the area s
of investments will include; infrastruc-
ture a nd huma n ca pita l de velopme nt.
3.6.2. Financial Services
71. Access to financ ia l se rvices s t illremains low, for example by 2009, only
28 percent of the population had ac-
ce ss to forma l financ ia l se rvice s . Mos t
small and medium scale enterprises in
the country still obtain credit from infor-
ma l fina nc ia l service providers. This is a
serious challenge to access to finance
for development, particularly affordablelong term finance.
72. The re c o ntinue s to b e insuf-
ficient financial services infrastructure
across the country, limited number of
bank branches and poor access to ru-
ra l fina ncia l servic es . Due to low s a v-
ing culture, there is a shortage of de-
velopment finance and the available
funds are extremely expensive. On the
demand side, the levels of creditwor-
thiness and enterprise managementcapacity contribute to the high cost of
cred it. On the supply s ide , there a re s till
high intermediation costs, including the
cost of monitoring and enforcement of
loa n contrac ts . There a re high risks
and uncertainties that make develop-
ment fina nce expens ive. These fac tors
affect access to financial services yetthere are market and institutional fail-
-
5
10
15
20
2530
35
40
45
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
Savingsto
GDP
Rato
Years (Period)
Uganda
Malaysia
Botswana
South Africa
Mauritus
Korea Republic
Source: World Bank, 2011
Period (Years)
8/10/2019 Vision 2040
50/136
Top Related