Using GIS to visualize, analyze and forecast seismic hazards
Serkan Bozkurt
0.60.0bars
-0.6
animation
animation
animation
animation
1992 M=7.3 Landers shock increases stress
at Big Bear
LosAngeles
BigBear
Landers
First 3 hr of Landers
aftershocks
plotted
1992 M=7.3 Landers shock 1992 M=7.3 Landers shock promotes the M=6.5 Big promotes the M=6.5 Big
Bear shock 3 hr laterBear shock 3 hr later
LosAngeles
BigBear
Landers
First 3 hr of Landers
aftershocks
plotted
……and promotes theand promotes the M=7.1 Hector MineM=7.1 Hector Mine shock 7 yr latershock 7 yr later
LosAngeles
Hector Mine
First 7 yr of
aftershocksplotted
New ways to forecast seismic shaking, and how they stack up in Tokyo
Earthquake Probability Investigation of Greater Tokyo
Shinji Toda, Masanobu Shishikura, and Kenji Satake
Ross Stein, Serkan Bozkurt, Bill Bakun, Fred Pollitz,Tom Parsons, Marleen Nyst, and Elliot Grunewald
Yoshimitsu Okada
Junichi Nakajima and Akira Hasegawa
Nobuo Hamada
Martin Bertogg, Mariagiovanna Guatteri, Silvio Tschudi,and Atsuhiro Dodo
Takuya Nishimura and Takeshi Sagiya
Fault model from Wald and Somerville
Fault model from M. Matsu’ura et al.
Our model for the 1923 earthquake is based on newly discovered geodetic data
Fault slip (cm)
But the 1703 earthquake was much larger
Marleen Nyst
Fred Pollitz
from Nyst et al (2005) and Pollitz et al (2005)
Slip direction
Tokyo
Kanto seismic corridor
Historical quakes from Usami (2003) reassessed with powerful computer technique
Elliot Grunewald
Bill Bakun
from Bakun (2005)
and Grunewald (in press 2006)
Ross Stein
Shinji Toda
animation
Picture
30-yr earthquake probabilities for greater Tokyo
Team Tokyo Study Poisson Renewal
M≥7.1 within 50 km of Tokyo 20 >35 (1855 type)
M≥7.9 within 100 km of Tokyo (1923 type) 11 0.5
Combined (I≥6 or PGA>0.95 g in Tokyo) 29% >35%
1
2
1
2
from Stein et al.
(2006)
Tokyo street scene in 1855
Study area is divided in to 5x5 km cells
data forone celldata forone cell
Creating the annual frequency-intensity model
How well the model fits local data
How well the model fits local data
How well the model fits local data
Turning cell data into maps
What about site effects and proximity to fault ruptures?
Residents of Edo appeal to the god Kashima to subdue the catfish, mythical source of the 1855 Ansei-Edo earthquake
GIS is one of the most powerful tools tovisualize, analyze,and enhance earth
science information.
Serkan Bozkurt(USGS, Menlo Park)
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