www.
sghm
artin
eau.
com US COAL EXPORTS
Andrew WhiteheadSGH Martineau LLP
London, Birmingham, Brussels
www.sghmartineau.com
What I will cover….
US coal exports to:
• Europe• India• China
including trends and prospects.
www.sghmartineau.com
The United States
• Total US exports in 2011 c10% of production (up on 2000-2010 which averaged c5%): world’s 4th largest exporter (2/3 of which met coal)
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=3830
China & India
Europe
Chin
a &
Indi
a
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Europe
www.sghmartineau.com
Consumption Imports Imports from the US
050,000,000
100,000,000150,000,000200,000,000250,000,000300,000,000350,000,000400,000,000
323,
703,
250
181,
881,
364
28,3
73,5
00334,
750,
000
208,
337,
000
38,3
34,0
00 20102011
Source: European Commission ‘Eurostats’
Shor
t ton
s
EU Coal Statistics
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Prospects For Coal In The EUThermal coal• Coal accounts for c30% of power generation• Short term expansion (nuclear and mine closures), but reducing to 15% by 2030?
• 2020 carbon reduction target• 2020 renewables target• Large Combustion Plant Directive – forced plant closures• EU ETS – full auctioning of permits from 2013• Industrial Emissions Directive – removal of NOx from flue gases
• Conversion of coal plant to biomass: fuel supply a key constraint but US/Canada a major supply source!
• Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) – funding for pilot projects• UK policy – no new coal plant without CCS, and market support for CCS • Overall - markets remain weak.Met coal• Europe is destination for c50% US exports• Demand affected by recession• Steel production will recover, but difficult to predict when and with what vigour. Its
re-emergence will be into a world of tight emissions controls and higher costs
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India
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Indian Coal Statistics
Consumption Imports Imports from the US
0100,000,000200,000,000300,000,000400,000,000500,000,000600,000,000700,000,000800,000,000900,000,000
721,
986,
000
101,
564,
000
2,72
2,67
7
788,
409,
000
115,
743,
000
5,00
0,00
0
20102011
Source: www.eia.gov
Shor
t ton
s
www.sghmartineau.com
Prospects For Coal In India
Thermal coal• Coal accounts for c55% of power generation• World’s 3rd largest producer after China and US• Inefficient production – reliant on imports• Imports increasing – doubled since 2008• Reduction of carbon emission intensity by 20-25% by 2020• ‘India – Perform, Achieve and Trade System’ • National Action Plan on Climate Change
Met coal• Long-term plan to expand steel industry • Vast domestic resource, but quality is poor and supply cannot keep up with
demand• Imports predicted to more than double by 2015• Most imports come from Australia
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China
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Chinese Coal Statistics
Consumption Imports Imports from the US
0500,000,000
1,000,000,0001,500,000,0002,000,000,0002,500,000,0003,000,000,0003,500,000,0004,000,000,0004,500,000,000
3,69
5,37
8,00
0
195,
063,
000
5,50
0,00
0
4,05
3,82
9,00
0
209,
439,
147
6,06
2,71
2
20102011
Source: www.eia.gov
Shor
t ton
s
www.sghmartineau.com
Prospects For Coal In China
Thermal coal• Coal accounts for c71% of power generation• World’s largest producer• 12th Five Year Plan:
• 17% reduction in carbon intensity by 2012• 9.5% or more of energy from renewable sources by 2015
• Costs of alternative energy sources falling (nuclear/wind/solar)• National carbon trading scheme expected by 2016• Coal will remain dominant fuel source• Domestic supplies often used as a hedge against high international pricesMet coal• Scarce domestic resource compared to thermal coal• 2012: projected 10% increase in imports over 2011
www.sghmartineau.com
Thank You
Andrew WhiteheadSenior Partner and Head of Energy and
Climate ChangeT: + 44 (0)870 763 1528M: + 44 (0)7831 160 753
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