UPlan: How It Works UPlan: How It Works and How to Get and How to Get
StartedStartedA description for the rest of usA description for the rest of us
Nathaniel RothNathaniel RothInformation Center for the EnvironmentInformation Center for the Environment
University of California, DavisUniversity of California, Davis
CalACT ConferenceCalACT Conference Olympic Valley Olympic Valley
4/22/20084/22/2008
Why do we model?Why do we model?
►1. They allow us to test a wide variety of 1. They allow us to test a wide variety of policy, planning and investment policy, planning and investment alternativesalternatives
►2. They create a consistent set of rules 2. They create a consistent set of rules and criteria to test the alternatives.and criteria to test the alternatives.
►3. They respond to a wide variety of 3. They respond to a wide variety of statutes requiring more accurate forecasts statutes requiring more accurate forecasts than in the past.than in the past.
What do we get from our What do we get from our models?models?
►Spatial OutputSpatial Output Where is the Where is the
growth?growth?
►Tabular OutputTabular Output How much?How much?
►AnalysisAnalysis What are the What are the
likely impacts?likely impacts?
UPlanUPlan
►SimpleSimple Relatively simple dataRelatively simple data Generally accessible demographic inputsGenerally accessible demographic inputs Simple algorithm/rulesSimple algorithm/rules
►Rule basedRule based The “rules” govern the systemThe “rules” govern the system
►Urban GrowthUrban Growth A simple inexpensive model with rapid run A simple inexpensive model with rapid run
times and fast data developmenttimes and fast data development
Households
People
Acres
People/HH
Acreage/HH
Households
People People/HH
Employees/HH Employees
Acres
SF/Employee
Building SF
FAR
4 0 0 04 04
4 24 22 2 2 2
0
Combined Effect
4 4 4 44 44
0 00 00 0 0 0
4
Urban Edge
0 4 0 00 04
4 00 00 4 0 0
00 3 0 00 30
0 00 00 0 0 0
3
Amenity Major Arterial
8 11 4 48 712
8 24 22 6 2 2
7
Ramp Proximity
Combine AttractorsCombine Attractors
R R R RR CR
C CR CR R I I
C
General Plan
AllocationAllocationNet Attraction
We need 5 Residential, 3 Commercial, 2 Industrial
R RR CR
CR I I
C5 Highest Residential Attractions3 Highest Commercial Attractions 2 All Industrial Selected
8 11 4 48 712
8 24 22 6 2 2
7
Data TypesData Types
►Land UsesLand Uses►DemographicsDemographics
ResidentialResidential EmploymentEmployment
►““General Plans”General Plans”►MasksMasks►AttractorsAttractors►DiscouragersDiscouragers
Land UsesLand Uses
► CustomizableCustomizable As of UPlan 2.6xAs of UPlan 2.6x
► AggregateAggregate 3400+ Land uses 3400+ Land uses
across 536 city and across 536 city and county general planscounty general plans
►Developed Land Use Developed Land Use TypesTypes Not Agriculture or Not Agriculture or
TimberTimber
► Residential TypesResidential Types Density ClassesDensity Classes
► Employment TypesEmployment Types Square Feet per Square Feet per
EmployeeEmployee Floor Area RatioFloor Area Ratio
Residential DemographicsResidential Demographics
►Population GrowthPopulation Growth Starting populationStarting population Ending populationEnding population
►Average Household Size (PPHH)Average Household Size (PPHH)►Housing Proportions by Density ClassHousing Proportions by Density Class
Percentage of new units entering each Percentage of new units entering each residential typeresidential type
Average gross “footprint” per householdAverage gross “footprint” per household
Employment DemographicsEmployment Demographics
►Average number of employed people Average number of employed people per householdper household
►Percentage of employees entering Percentage of employees entering each employment typeeach employment type
►Average square footage per employee Average square footage per employee in buildings for each employment typein buildings for each employment type
►Floor Area Ratio for each employment Floor Area Ratio for each employment typetype
““General Plans”General Plans”
► Adopted General PlansAdopted General Plans Test existing general Test existing general
plansplans
► Speculative General Speculative General PlansPlans What if?...What if?...
► Provide the Structure Provide the Structure for the Region’s for the Region’s DevelopmentDevelopment Guide development to Guide development to
appropriate general appropriate general locationslocations
MasksMasks
► Prevent any growth Prevent any growth at all.....at all.....
► ExamplesExamples Water BodiesWater Bodies Public LandPublic Land Existing Existing
Development (no Development (no redevelopment)redevelopment)
Slopes/GeologySlopes/Geology
AttractorsAttractors
► Features that Features that encourage encourage developmentdevelopment
► PseudoeconomicPseudoeconomic► HedonicHedonic
► The Data RepresentsThe Data Represents Effects of PolicyEffects of Policy Physical FeaturesPhysical Features
AttractorsAttractors
► Roads and Roads and transportation transportation infrastructureinfrastructure
► Urban services:Urban services: Water and wastewaterWater and wastewater Safety... police, fireSafety... police, fire TransitTransit Amenities.... parks, Amenities.... parks,
entertainment, cultural entertainment, cultural eventsevents
► Past or Planned GrowthPast or Planned Growth► Regulatory boundariesRegulatory boundaries
City LimitsCity Limits Spheres of InfluenceSpheres of Influence
DiscouragersDiscouragers
► Features that Features that discourage discourage developmentdevelopment
► RepresentRepresent Policy effectsPolicy effects Physical featuresPhysical features
DiscouragersDiscouragers
► PhysicalPhysical Steep or unstable slopesSteep or unstable slopes FloodplainsFloodplains
► EnvironmentalEnvironmental Natural resource protections... wetlands, species, Natural resource protections... wetlands, species,
agriculture, mineral resourcesagriculture, mineral resources Hazards... Mining, soilsHazards... Mining, soils
► AdministrativeAdministrative Fees and exactionsFees and exactions
► Infrastructure LimitsInfrastructure Limits TransportationTransportation WaterWater
What can be done with UPlanWhat can be done with UPlan
►Types of ScenariosTypes of Scenarios Recent trends (aka Status Quo, Base Recent trends (aka Status Quo, Base
Case, Business as Usual)Case, Business as Usual) General Plan BuildoutGeneral Plan Buildout Change ScenariosChange Scenarios
►SprawlSprawl►CompactCompact►Resource protectionResource protection►New CitiesNew Cities►Resource limitationsResource limitations
AnalysisAnalysis
► TransportationTransportation Export to Transportation ModelingExport to Transportation Modeling
► Air QualityAir Quality Based on Transportation Modeling outputBased on Transportation Modeling output
► Greenhouse GassesGreenhouse Gasses Building type, location, service providerBuilding type, location, service provider
► Resource ConsumptionResource Consumption Discouragement impactsDiscouragement impacts Other summarizationOther summarization
► Population DistributionPopulation Distribution► Accessibility/Economic ActivityAccessibility/Economic Activity
Using accessibility/travel times to core areasUsing accessibility/travel times to core areas
ReportsReports
►Generated in MS ExcelGenerated in MS Excel►MetadataMetadata► Land ConsumptionLand Consumption
Demand: Acres and CellsDemand: Acres and Cells Allocated: Acres and CellsAllocated: Acres and Cells Underallocation: Acres and CellsUnderallocation: Acres and Cells
►Discouragement ImpactsDiscouragement Impacts Acres of each discouragement consumed by land Acres of each discouragement consumed by land
use typeuse type
ReportsReports
Zonal SummaryZonal Summary
►How much How much development is development is happening where?happening where?
►New population New population centerscenters
►New Employment New Employment centerscenters
Zonal SummariesZonal Summaries
► Calculate by Zone:Calculate by Zone: # Acres of each land use# Acres of each land use # of HH in each residential type# of HH in each residential type # of residents in each residential type# of residents in each residential type # of employees in each employment type# of employees in each employment type # of square feet in building space for each employment type# of square feet in building space for each employment type
Greenhouse GasGreenhouse Gas
► Climate ZoneClimate Zone Determines Demand for Determines Demand for
EnergyEnergy► Service ProviderService Provider
Determines Type of Determines Type of Energy Energy
Energy MixEnergy Mix CO2E generationCO2E generation
► No embodied CO2 No embodied CO2 calculationscalculations
► Calculations by land use Calculations by land use type, climate zone, type, climate zone, service provider, service provider, subareasubarea
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsCalifornia Department of California Department of
TransportationTransportationUS Department of AgricultureUS Department of Agriculture
Federal Highway AdministrationFederal Highway Administration
Questions?Questions?Nathaniel RothNathaniel Roth
GIS Programmer/AnalystGIS Programmer/AnalystInformation Center for the EnvironmentInformation Center for the Environment
University of California, DavisUniversity of California, [email protected]@ucdavis.edu or (530) 752-1331 or (530) 752-1331
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