Pabitra GurungPhD Student

Natural Resources and Environmental Studies (NRES)

University of Northern British Columbia

Curious to Know?

What are the potential sources of uncertainty?

Is it due to Model resolution?

Is physics missing for such discrepancies?

Is it a problem to capture monsoon well?

Is this a common problem of the world? What is a

scenario in Canada?

What can be done to improve the climate model to fit into

the Himalayan regions?

Is there any improvement in IPCC AR5 that can address

the orographic effects of the mountain?

Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region

“Slope and Aspect”

Source: Google Earth

How can we say climate is changing in the

region?

Snow and Glacier Retreat

Shifting of Agro-ecological Zones

Drying up Spring Water Sources and Migration

Source: From my own experiences and various studies

Climate Data Portal: http://dhm.gov.np/dpc

Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM)

Projected Climate Data of Nepal

RCM Climate

Variable

Data Period GCM SRES

Family

Resolution Source

PRECIS

Rainfall (mm),

Temperature (⁰C)

(Min and Max),

Relative Humidity,

Wind Speed,

Solar Radiation, &

Other

1970-2000 (Baseline),

2030-2060 (Projected)

HadCM3Q0,

ECHAM5A1B 20 km

DHM

RegCM4

1960-1990 (Baseline),

2030-2060 (Projected)

ECHAM4 A2

20 km

ECHAM5 A1B

WRF

1970-2000 (Baseline)

2030-2060 (Projected)

Era40,

CCSM3,

ECHAM5,

GFDL-V2,

HadCM3

A1B 12 km

Source: ADB/DHM/ADPC

Projected Mean Annual Climatic Variables

3 RCMs (WRF, RegCM4 and PRECIS) for all

scenarios from A1B….

grey lines: HadCM3Q0, ECHAM05, CCSM3, GFDL-V2, and HadCM3…

mean as black line representing scenario A1B … ...

red line represents scenario A2: ECHAM04…..

Precipitation Maximum Temperature

Minimum Temperature

Source: ADB/DHM/ADPC

Change of Annual Mean Precipitation

(mm)

(2030-2060)

Source: ADB/DHM/ADPC

Change of Annual Mean Maximum Daily

Temperature ( C)

(2030-2060)

Source: ADB/DHM/ADPC

Change of Annual Mean Minimum Daily

Temperature ( C)

(2030-2060)

Source: ADB/DHM/ADPC

Change in Monsoon (JJAS) Rainfall

WRF-ECHAM5 WRF-GFDL-V2 WRF-HADCM3

PRECIS-HadCM3Q0 RegCM4-ECHAM5 WRF-CCSM3

SRES Family – A1B

Source: IWMI

Change in Monsoon (JJAS) Max. Temperature

WRF-ECHAM5 WRF-GFDL-V2 WRF-HADCM3

PRECIS-HadCM3Q0 RegCM4-ECHAM5 WRF-CCSM3

SRES Family – A1B

Source: IWMI

Example of Hydrological Modeling: West Seti River Sub-basin of Nepal

- Located at Far Western Region of Nepal

- Catchment Area: 7,438 km2

- Elevation : 314 m to 7043 m (2505 m)

- Annual Rainfall: 1921 mm

- > 75 % Rainfall occurs only in monsoon Source: IWMI

Agro-Hydrological Model: Soil Water Assessment Tool

(SWAT)

Source: SWAT Document

Precipitation (2031-2060)

Percentage Change in Water Balance

(-13% to

+40%)(+6% to

+45%)

(-36% to

0%)

(-19% to

+25%)

Actual ET (2031-2060)

(-39% to

+122%)(-29% to

+108%)

(-30% to

+75%)

(-42% to

+50%)

Sou

rce:

IW

MI

Percentage Change in Water Balance

Total Flow Volume (2031-2060)

(-74% to

+736%)(-94% to

+714%)

(-96% to

+475%)(-67% to

+939%)

Net Water Yield (2031-2060)

(-68% to

+64%)(-68% to

+66%)

(-80% to

+15%)(-76% to

+22%)

Sou

rce:

IW

MI

Thank you !!!

Acknowledgement

Dr. Luna BharatiSenior Researcher

International Water Management Institute (IMWI)

Dr. Stephen DeryAssociate Professor

University of Northern British Columbia (UNBC)

Climate Science Informal Seminar (CSIS)University of Northern British Columbia (UNBC)

Potential Issues to Discuss?

What are the potential sources of uncertainty?

Is it due to Model resolution?

Is physics missing for such discrepancies?

Is it a problem to capture monsoon well?

Is this a common problem of the world? What is a

scenario in Canada?

What can be done to improve the climate model to fit into

the Himalayan regions?

Is there any improvement in IPCC AR5 that can address

the orographic effects of the mountain?