THE ULTIMATE
MULTIPARTY DISPUTE
KYOTO & BEYOND 2012
CLIMATE CHANGE
NEGOTIATIONS
CLIMATE CHANGE
NEGOTITIONS • Why negotiate climate change?
• Who are the players?
• What are their needs?
• Where do their interests/opposition lie?
• What are the outcomes?
• How can they achieve their objectives?
• The future?
Why Negotiate?
The Core Objective
• To co-operatively limit average global
temperature increases and the resulting climate
change, by reducing greenhouse gas emissions
• To manage climate change impacts
Multi-party & Multi-issue
• Although environmental in nature, climate
change has consequences for all spheres of
existence on our planet.
• It either impacts on - or is impacted by - global
issues, including poverty, economic development,
population growth, sustainable development and
resource management.
• Involves nearly all countries of the world – 195
signatories
History • 1979 - The First World Climate Conference
• 1988 - UN General Assembly resolution 43/53
recognises climate change as a common
concern of humanity
• 1992 - Earth Summit – Rio, 20th anniversary
• 1995 - The first Conference of the Parties
(COP 1) takes place in Berlin.
• 1997 Kyoto Protocol
Since Kyoto
• 2005 - Montreal, entry into force of the Kyoto
Protocol.
• 2007 - Bali Action Plan for post 2012 period
• 2009 - Copenhagen Accord
• 2010 - Cancun Agreements
• 2011 -The Durban Platform for Enhanced
Action.
• 2012 - Doha, Qatar
How? • Subsidiary Body for Scientific & Technical
Advice (SBSTA)
• Ad Hoc Groups
• Global Environment Facility (GEF) to
operate financial mechanisms
• Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI)
• Conference of the Parties (COP)
Who are the Players?
• Developed Nations
– large emitters v small emitters
• Developing Nations
– large emitters v small & poor
• Countries in Transition
– the wealthy v the struggling
• North v South of the equator
• Energy producers v energy consumers
The Coalitions
• The EU Bubble
• AOSIS- Alliance of Small Island States
• PICs - the Pacific Island Countries
• OPEC - Arab Group
• G77 + China group of developing nations
• Umbrella Group (USA, Canada, Russia*,
Australia, New Zealand, Norway, Iceland ,
Ukraine
• The Coalition of Forest Nations (REDD)*
• BASIC - Brazil, S Africa, China, India *
• MLDC – Mountainous Landlocked Developing
Countries
• ALBA – Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of
our America
• GRULAC – Group of Latin American &
Caribbean States
• LDCs – Least Developed Countries
• EIG – Environmental Integrity Group
The Leaders/Agendas
• The EU - Germany (high moral ground)
• PICs - Tuvalu (the Victims)
• China & India (the spoilers)
• The Umbrella Group (the leftovers)
• Australia (“we are a special case”)
• Japan, Denmark, S Africa- the host must save
face
• The scientists
• The bureaucracy
What were their Needs
• PICs were losing land to salinity and rising
water
• EU needed to share Germany’s windfall
• Australia needed recognition for historical
land clearing, efficiency of energy production
& neighbours committed to targets
• Japan needed special consideration for certain
gases
• Russia needed to trade its credits for income
Needs • OPEC wanted compensation for loss of
commodity
• USA needed emissions trading, & future
developing nation commitments
• Norway & Iceland needed special consideration
for their coal production & use
• Developing nations needed technology transfer
and control of their future development
• China needed sovereignty recognition
• Tuvalu wants to remain above water
Interest Groups • Environment lobby groups
• Domestic Opposition Parties
• Industry
– energy
– minerals
– insurance
– motor vehicle
• Unions
• Community
• Medical
What was achieved at Kyoto
• Commits developed countries to reduce their
overall emissions of greenhouse gases by an
average of 5% below 1990 levels between 2008-
2012, with specific targets varying from country
to country
• domestic policies & measures
• coverage of all gases
• flexibility mechanisms
What was achieved at Copenhagen
• Disappointment – high expectations?
• Disputes over transparency & process
• Increase in power to China (BASIC)
• From fissure – chasm, rich vs. poor deadlock
• From a top down to a bottom up approach
• RED(D) – Reducing Emissions from
Deforestation (and Degradation)
What was achieved at Cancun
• Success? Low expectations
• Recognized the need for deep cuts in global
emissions in order to limit global average
temperature rise to 2 degrees
• Mitigation through reducing emissions through
deforestation and degradation, conservation &
sustainable management of forests
• Several new institutions & processes
What was achieved at Durban
• Green Climate Fund
• Establishment of a 2nd commitment period
under Kyoto Protocol
• Decision on long-term cooperative action
• Ad Hoc group to a develop a protocol or an
“agreed outcome with legal force” applicable to
all Parties by 2015 for implementation from
2020
Negotiation Strategies &
Techniques
• Soft bargaining – to advance the negotiation for
the mutual benefit of all, by proposing solutions
in the common interest to all in order to
overcome stalemate. AOSIS
• Hard bargaining – to seek to increase on
country’s gain at the expenses of another, using
threats & demands. USA, China & BASICS
• Compromise
Power Asymmetry
• Borrowing power - drawing on external sources,
e.g. NGOs, media
• Moral power – supporting legitimacy
• Playing the negotiating game well, skills,
alliances, respect
• Stressed alliances & shifting interests
Challenges
• Managing expectations
• Managing the domestic front
• Requirement of 100% consensus, resulting in
blocking of potentially constructive resolutions
• The need for a mechanism to break deadlock
• Compliance & enforcement mechanisms
Challenges
• Transparency
• Trust
• Cooperation - although individual nations may
not have the incentive to reduce emissions, all
nations would be better off if all agreed to do so.
(prisoners’ dilemma)
• Fulfilling promises already made
• Political will
A Way Forward
• Multi party disputes need customized processes
• the role of sub-groups to provide admin and
expert support
• the influence of parties not at the table
• work with what is agreed
• the need for strong leadership & facilitation
• The need for a common but differentiated
approach
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