W Hotel (Westwood)|Los Angeles October 26, 2011
Projected PEV Base in Los Angeles: 2000-2020
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,00020
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
20
Installed Base
BEV Cumulative PHEV Cumulative Hybrid Cumulative
Source: Jeffrey Dubin, et.al., UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, 2011.
Market Analysis
� PEVs projected to be 9% of new car sales in 2015, and 11.7% in 2020
� Based on demographic and conjoint survey of 2,072 LA residents in 2010-2011.
Source: Jeffrey Dubin, et.al., UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, 2011.
PEV Charging & Multifamily Dwellings
� Residential Parking a problem for Early Adopters
� “How much of a problem would it be if there were no EV chargers in your building?” � Would prevent from buying an EV: 42% � Serious problem, but could work: 27%
Source: Jeffrey Dubin, et.al., UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, 2011.
PEV Charging & Multifamily Dwellings
� Unlocking Multifamily Dwelling Charging = Unlocking the Market
Single Family, 46%
Duplex, 3%
Multifamily, 51%
Other, 0.7%
Source: David Peterson, UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, 2011.
Los Angeles Housing Stock (2009)
PEV Charging & Multifamily Dwellings
� LA Green Building Code mandates new construction to install EVSE electrical conduits in low rise multifamily.
� LAGBC mandates designated PEV spaces for new high-rise construction
Source: City of Los Angeles Green Building Code, 2010.
PEV Charging & Multifamily Dwellings
� New residential construction is too slow to meet demand
� SR solutions? � PHEVs & Extended range vehicles � Workplace and publicly-accessible charging
� What are actual installation costs in overlapping areas of high nighttime demand and high concentrations of multifamily?
� What role can public policy play to expedite installations?
Siting & Managing Public Charging
� Workplace, Commercial and other Publicly-accessible charging addresses key need for niche markets: � PEV drivers without residential charging � PEVs with small batteries wanting to charge
“opportunistically” � Reducing range anxiety
� Where should they go, and how should they be managed?
Siting & Managing Public Charging
� Many siting methodologies exist: � #1: Ad-hoc � #2 Informed
� Estimating demand, identifying low cost supply sites, and matching supply and demand gives cities the power to: � Leverage private investment � Know where to upgrade old infrastructure � Informs electric utility where to expect demand � Plan for integration with transportation demand
strategies (e.g., parking pricing)
Concentrations of Nighttime PEV Charging 2020
Source: Jeffrey Dubin, et.al., UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, 2011.
Siting & Managing Public Charging
59 32
7 6
4 1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Commercial Government Owned Property
Institutional Industrial
Recreational Miscellaneous
EV Charging Station Locations by Land Use Category (07.2011)
Number of Locations
3
484
2
312
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Public EVSE 1.0 L1 Public EVSE 1.0 L2
EVSE
(uni
ts)
First Generation Charging Stations (07.2011)
U.S. (ex-CA) CA (ex-LA County) LA County
• Appx 35% of U.S. Gen 1 charging stations are in LA County • Most are 220-240 Volts • Opportunity for low-cost refurbishment • Need to strategically target sites
• Over 50% of publicly-accessible Gen 1 charging stations on commercial property. • Opportunity to leverage private investment.
Source: Peterson & Goepel, UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, 2011.
Conclusion � Need to responsibly site and manage
infrastructure to avoid wasteful spending and costly decommissioning of stranded assets
� Public sector can have a hand in guiding this process
� Innovative solutions need to emerge for multi-unit dwellings
� Need for greater sharing of best practices across California and U.S.
www.luskin.ucla.edu
� J.R. DeShazo, Director � 310.593.1198 � [email protected]
� David Peterson, PEV Project Manager � 650.477.4883 � [email protected]
Top Related