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Page 1: Trends in the Maine Labor Market

Trends in the MaineLabor Market

Historical trends and projections to the year 2018

Maine Department of LaborCenter for Workforce Research & Information

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Demographic trendsand labor force

growth

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Births have declined 40 percent since the height of the baby boom

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Net in-migration has become the primary source of population growth

Average annual net change in population by source

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The population is aging rapidly

Projected population net change by age group, 2008 to 2018

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Half the population will be age 44+ in 2018

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Labor force participation peaks around age 50and declines at an accelerating rate with age

Labor force participation by age group

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Unemployment rates have generally been loweramong women than men since the 1980s

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Female labor force participation is no longer rising

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Labor force growth is slowing due to the combination of baby boomers aging beyond their peak years of labor force

attachment and peaking of the share of working women

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Demographic trends not only impact total workforce growth, but also demand for products and services and jobs related to production of those items

A growing middle-age and elderly population will keep demand for health and retirement services rising.

Demand for financial services will continue to rise as baby boomers increasingly focus on retirement planning.

Businesses will continue to pursue productivity gains through automation and more efficient work practices as a response to slower labor supply growth.

Geographic boundaries will continue to fall as consumers and businesses increasingly use technology to locate and purchase products and services, communicate, and perform administrative functions.

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Industryemployment

trends

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Service-providing industries have increased from

just over half to 87 percent of jobs in less than 60 years

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Service-providing industries have beenthe engine of job growth for decades...

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... That trend is expected to continue through 2018with more manufacturing job losses andgrowth in health care and other services

Projected change in jobs 2008 to 2018

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The outlook by sector is similar to the previous ten year period,though job gains and losses are expected to moderate. Most job growth

is expected in education & health care, professional & business services, and leisure & hospitality. Manufacturing job losses are

expected to continue.

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Industry employment trends and technological change influence what

occupations or skills are in demand

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Occupationalemployment

trends

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The share of jobs in blue-collar occupations

has steadily declined in the last five decades

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The fastest job growth is expected to continue to be inprofessional/technical and service occupations...

Projected change in jobs by occupational group, 2008 to 2018

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...at the upper end of the education/training spectrum...

Projected change in jobs by usual education or training requirement,

2008 to 2018

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Also related to managerial and professional job growth,the fastest growth is expected in occupations at the

upper end of the earnings spectrum

Projected change in jobsby 2008 average wage

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...Though there will continue to be more jobs

with lower education/training requirements

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Occupational employment

trends will continue to be driven by broad

demographic trends in the population, shifts in jobs

by industry, and technological change