Transportation Vulnerability and
Risk Assessment Pilot
American Planning Association Monday, April 16, 2012
Photo: Ingrid Taylor
Goal
The goal of Adapting to Rising Tides is to increase preparedness and resilience of Bay Area communities to sea level rise and other climate change impacts while protecting ecosystem and community assets, such as transportation.
Partnerships
Project Management Team
Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Bay Conservation and Development Commission, and Caltrans
Consultant Team
AECOM, Arcadis, Geografika, 3D Visions
Federal Highway Administration
Local Partnership
Cities of Emeryville, Alameda, Oakland, San Leandro, Hayward, & Union City, and County of Alameda
BART, Capital Corridor, AC Transit
U.S. Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, California Coastal Conservancy, East Bay Dischargers Authority, East Bay Municipal Utility District, East Bay Regional Park District, Hayward Area Rec. and Park, Port of Oakland, Association of Bay Area Governments, Alameda County Transportation Commission
Alameda
County Sub-Region
Study Area
Bay Area Refinements to Pilot Model
1. Data Asset Inventory & Asset Screening and Prioritization
2. Climate and Shoreline Information
3. Vulnerability Assessment 1. =Exposure +
Sensitivity + Adaptive Capacity
4. Risk Assessment
1. = Likelihood + Consequence
5. Adaptation Strategies
1a. Transportation Asset Inventory
Interstates/Freeways
Arterial, collector and local streets
Road tunnels/tubes
Bay bridges
Alameda bridges
BART stations
BART alignments
Amtrak stations
Passenger/freight rail alignments
Ferry terminals
Transportation Management Centers
Bus Maintenance Facilities
BART System Assets
Passenger and Freight Yards and Depots
Pedestrian/ Bicycle Facilities
Transit associated with all road assets
1b. Asset Selection Physical Characteristics
built at-grade, below grade, or elevated on embankments or structures;
Functional Characteristics lifeline routes, evacuation routes, goods movement routes, transit routes, and bike routes;
Jurisdiction agency, city or other entity with ownership and/or management responsibility for the asset;
Social/Economic Functions connecting to jobs, regional importance, and support of transit-dependent populations.
2. Climate Science & Shoreline Assets
Developed simple, yet
distinct, shoreline categories based on primary function and potential to protect against inland inundation
Using shoreline categories in combination with new inundation maps to understand transportation vulnerability and risk
Shoreline Categories: North
Shoreline Categories: South
New Sea Level Rise Maps for Six (6) Climate Scenarios
• Two sea level rise projections
• 16” (40 cm) of sea level rise ≈ mid-century
• 55” (140 cm) of sea level rise ≈ end-century
• Three water level conditions
• High tide (mean high high water, MHHW)
• Extreme high tide (100-year stillwater level)
• Extreme high tide + locally generated wind waves
16” SLR + 100-Year Stillwater Level
55” SLR + 100-Year Stillwater Level
3. Vulnerability Assessment
Vulnerability: “is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.” (IPCC definition 2007)
Vulnerability = exposure + sensitivity + adaptive capacity
= inundation to Sea Level Rise + condition of asset + ability to reroute if inundated
Exposure to SLR Measured by depth of inundation at midcentury and end of century
Asset Sensitivity
Exposure+Sensitivity+Adaptive Capacity = Vulnerability
• Level of use - Average Daily Traffic (ADT) volume (cars / trucks) etc
•Age
• Seismically retrofitted
•Maintenance (Ongoing Operations and Maintenance [O&M]) Cost
• Foundation condition
• Liquefaction susceptibility
Adaptive Capacity
Our definition: the ability for rerouting to maintain all or part of the original functionality
Adaptive capacity: “is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or cope with the consequences.” (IPCC definition)
Photo: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/6237100.stm
Exposure+Sensitivity+Adaptive Capacity = Vulnerability
Risk is the threat posed by an impact or hazard. It depends on the likelihood of an impact and the magnitude of the consequence.
If so, what are expected consequences in terms of cost and time to replace asset, economic impact, socio-economic impact, public safety and degree of redundancy in the system?
What is the likelihood of the asset being impacted by sea level rise?
4. Risk Assessment
Likelihood + Consequence = Risk
Likelihood + Consequence = Risk
Likelihood and Consequence
Likelihood: What is the likelihood that the asset will be impacted by SLR? Mid century SLR scenario = ‘highly likely’
End of Century SLR scenario = ‘likely’
Consequence: what is the expected impact or consequence to society if the asset is inundated? Criteria selected: Cost of and time to replace asset
Economic impact (goods movement, commuter route)
Socio-economic impact (transit dependent communities, MTC Communities of Concern)
Public safety (lifeline, mass evacuation route)
Degree of redundancy in the system (ability to reroute)
Asset Risk Profile
• Asset Characteristics
• Vulnerability Rating
• Exposure
• Sensitivity
• Adaptive Capacity
• Risk Rating
• Likelihood
• Consequence
5. Adaptation Strategies
Explore potential range of near-term and long-term adaptation strategies Structural Adaptation Measures
Nonstructural Adaptation Measures
Asset-Specific Adaptation Measures
Regional Adaptation Measures
Evaluated risk profiles to identify appropriate adaptation measure for each asset – highest risk assets are to be addressed first
Next Steps: more detailed adaptation planning needed
Results Most assets in the study area will not be affected by sea
level rise between now and the end of the century
Some assets in the study area are vulnerable and at risk to the effects of sea level rise including such important assets as:
The eastern approach to the Oakland-San Francisco Bay Bridge
BART’s Transbay Tube
Webster and Posey Tubes
Key points along the shoreline are low and will lead to large areas of inundation
There are many things we can do to prepare for and protect our region from sea level rise
Next Steps
Reproduce the study for all communities along the San Francisco Bay
Use the results in MTC’s Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy EIR to assess the impacts of sea level rise on proposed transportation projects and development patterns
Complete a similar assessment in the region for other community assets
Begin the conversation of adaptation planning with residents, cities, and counties
Call to Action
The San Francisco Bay Area is one of the most economically and ecologically vibrant regions in the world. But it is also critically vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. As a region, it is imperative that we adapt to the impacts of climate change by fostering resilient and sustainable development. This challenge brings us an exciting opportunity to embrace a spirit of stewardship that advances both economic and environmental prosperity.
For more information, please contact MTC staff:
Brenda Dix [email protected]
510.817.5927 For a report copy of Transportation Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Pilot Project, see: http://www.mtc.ca.gov/planning/climate/Rising_Tides_Briefing_Book.pdf
http://www.mtc.ca.gov/planning/climate/RisingTides-TechnicalReport.pdf
Conducting Climate Change
Vulnerability of New Jersey’s
Transportation System
Jeffrey Perlman, AICP, PP, LEEDAP, Principal Planner
North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority
Project Goals
Assess the vulnerability of NJ’s transportation system to the
affects of climate change
Test FHWA Conceptual Model
Build capacity among State agencies to analyze climate data
and assess vulnerability
Assist Counties and Municipalities in assessing their own
vulnerable infrastructure and climate adaptation planning
NJTPA
DVRPC
SJTPO
Project Study Area
Transportation Asset Categories Included in
Criticality Analysis
Roadways (from the CMS network)
Bridges
Passenger Rail (Amtrak and NJ TRANSIT)
Freight Rail (NS and CSX, class 3)
Airports
Wetlands
Tunnels (Route 29 and Atlantic City Marina)
Criteria for Ranking Criticality
Revised Criteria for Ranking Criticality
Criteria for Ranking Criticality – Mapping of TAZs
Ranking Criticality for New Jersey’s Infrastructure
Critical Transportation Infrastructure
Determining Climate Impacts – Coastal and Inland
Study Areas
Sea Level Rise and
Storm Surge
Impacts
Temperature and
Precipitation
Inland flooding
impacts
Determining Climate Impacts – Sea Level Rise and
Storm Surge
Three global SLR scenarios - .5, 1, 1.5 meters
based regional SLR increase based on IPCC Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios: Low (B1), Medium (A1B), and High (A2)
Used local subsidence data provided by NJDEP
Projected SLR and SS impacts for 2050 and 2100
SLOSH modeling to determine storm surge impacts from a
Category 1 Hurricane
Utilized Digital Elevation Maps from
High-resolution LiDAR from USGS
Highways Potentially
Vulnerable to Sea Level
Rise
& Storm Surge – medium
GHG scenario for 2100
Highways Potentially Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise
& Storm Surge – medium GHG scenario for 2100
Determining Climate Impacts – Temperature &
Precipitation
Three GHG emission scenarios based on IPCC Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios: Low (B1), Medium (A1B), and High (A2)
Projected climate impacts for 2050 and 2100 (represent 30-year
averages)
Collected historic weather data from eight NJ weather stations for
use in climate modeling
Utilized SimCLIM (CLIM Systems) to perform downscaling of GCMs
Climate Thresholds for Analysis
Temperature
Precipitation
Drought
Cold/Frost
Flooding*
Flooding of Passaic River in Paterson NJ from Hurricane Irene
Climate Change Projections – select stations and
emissions scenarios
Climate Extremes: Average Annual Days
at or above 95˚F
Determining Infrastructure Vulnerable to Inland Flooding
Climate variables generated by SimCLIM used as inputs
for inland flooding analysis Same timeframes and emissions scenarios
Frost days, dry days, and rainfall
Analysis estimates potential changes in peak 100-year
storm (1% annual storm event) Generated floodplain polygons based on Flood Insurance Study
cross sections
Used updated Digital Flood Insurance Rate Maps from FEMA
Accounts for future estimated changes in impervious area
(population growth)
Rail Infrastructure Potentially Vulnerable to 1% Storm
Event – Medium GHG scenario for 2100
Rail Infrastructure
Potentially Vulnerable
to 1% Storm Event –
Medium GHG scenario
for 2100
•81 miles of roadway
•138 miles of rail
-25 miles of NJ
TRANSIT
-12 miles of Amtrak
Lessons Learned and Remaining Challenges
Important challenges and barriers:
downscaling climate models adds a great deal of uncertainty for
measuring the climate impacts on specific pieces of infrastructure.
absence of bridge elevation and under-clearance data led to the
overstatement of the potential vulnerability of bridge spans
Examining operations data and roadway closures and
comparing with storm events
Better data on weather-related system interruptions
Further Reading
Visit the NJTPA Climate Initiative for more information
http://www.njtpa.org/Plan/Element/Climate/ClimateChangeInitiative.aspx
U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
S573: Climate Change Risk Assessments of Transportation Systems
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Pilots
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Becky Lupes Federal Highway Administration [email protected]
APA 2012 National Planning Conference April 16, 2012
Agenda and Presenters
1. Background on FHWA’s Pilot Program: Becky Lupes,
FHWA
2. San Francisco Pilot: Brenda Dix, MTC
3. New Jersey Pilot: Jeff Perlman, NJTPA
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Climate Change Adaptation at USDOT
Secretary LaHood’s Policy Statement (June 2011):
“The United States Department of Transportation (DOT)
shall integrate consideration of climate change impacts
and adaptation into the planning, operations, policies,
and programs of DOT in order to ensure that taxpayer
resources are invested wisely and that transportation
infrastructure, services and operations remain effective
in current and future climate conditions…”
http://www.dot.gov/docs/climatepolicystatement.pdf
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4
Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Conceptual Model/Framework
Develop inventory of
infrastructure assets
Gather climate data
Assess vulnerability and
risk of assets to projected
climate change
Analyze, prioritize
adaptation options
Monitor and revisit
Pilot Program Goals
• Help DOTs and MPOs more quickly advance
existing adaptation assessment activities
• Assist FHWA in test driving our climate change
vulnerability and risk assessment framework
5
Pilot Program Structure
• One year for the studies
• Collaboration opportunities for pilot participants
4 webinars for sharing progress, results, and exploring topics in detail
2 peer exchanges hosted at pilot locations
SharePoint site
• ICF Assistance
Webinar, peer exchange, and SharePoint logistics and support
Topical expertise
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CALIFORNIA
WASHINGTON
NEW JERSEY
Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk
Assessment Pilot Locations
Oahu
San Francisco Hampton Roads
HAWAII
VIRGINIA
Central &
Coastal
Pilot: Washington State DOT
• Statewide geographic scope
• Studied WSDOT owned and
managed facilities
• Workshops covering the state.
“What keeps you up at night?”
• Putting information in one
comprehensive, searchable format.
• Next Steps:
Develop a focused strategy to
define how the agency will
incorporate results
Further analysis
Communicating Internally and
Externally - focus on solutions,
not just problems
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Pilot: Oahu MPO
• Held 2 day interagency workshop to select assets for further study
• Performed qualitative risk assessment on each asset
• Limited resources
• Emergency management and interagency collaboration focus
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Pilot: Virginia DOT –Hampton Roads
• Developed a priority
setting model
• For use in
transportation
planning
• Multicriteria analysis
included climate
change impact
scenarios
• Model is available for
use by other regions
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• Results being used by Hampton Roads PDC as they update their
transportation plan.
Next Steps
• Update the vulnerability assessment framework
Represent the framework as a series of modules rather than a
linear flow chart
Articulate objectives upfront
Less focus on likelihood
Add resources and examples
• Deployment
• Potential for Additional Pilots
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Resources
FHWA Vulnerability and Risk Assessments
Pilots: www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep/climate/pilots.htm
Gulf Coast Study: www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep/climate/gulf_coast_study
Tools
NOAA Climate Services Portal: www.climate.gove/#climateWatch
US Army Corps of Engineers Sea Level Rise Calculator:
www.corpsclimate.us/rcwvceslcurves.cfm
Case Studies
Georgetown Climate Center Adaptation Clearinghouse:
www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation/clearinghouse
CAKE: www.cakex.org
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U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
Thank you www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep/climate
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