Risk and impact
Kate Sayer
May 2014
Traditional approaches
Identify all the risks you can think of
Rank them for impact and likelihood
Multiply the factors to prioritise risks
Present in a risk register
Variations on this?
What are the drawbacks?
Spurious accuracy – numbers are misleading
Different levels need different formats – operational versus high level strategic
Risk registers require you to pinpoint a risk event – this is unrealistic
Creates illusion that you are managing risks by this process
A different approach
Focus on the management of risks
Work on organisational capability to respond to unforeseen events
Differentiate risks
internal, predictable and we can act to prevent the event occurring
external and outside our control or arising from the strategy
Operational risks
Managing day-to-day risks is part of the normal management job
Managers describe the actions and processes in place to manage risk
Then map back to the risks
Identify gaps or overlaps
Assess how effective these actions are
Notes on further actions or changes
Framework
6
Controls - procedures Risks
Aims and objectives
Planning
Accountability
Training
Systemic
Monitoring
Staff welfare
External review
Strategic risks – for SMT
Focus on external risks and risks arising from the strategy
Cannot easily be assigned to one team
More likely we will have to respond rather than control
Possibility of high impact events
Likelihood difficult to assess – too subjective
Strategic risk register
Identify major risks and impact
Consider responses and how to manage
Assign responsibility for management of risk
Regular reporting and monitoring of risks
Getting to better impact
Impact = outcomes
resources put in
Increase the
volume or quality
of outcomes and
outputs
Reduce the level
of resources (time
and effort) put in
What can we affect?
Which beneficiaries we work with
What we do How we do it Who does it How long Outcomes
Elements of cost
Improving outcomes
At any given point, there are a range of possible outcomes
How can you enhance the chances of the route to better outcomes being chosen?
Improving outcomes
Performance target Control anger towards children for 6
consecutive months
Outcome
All children live in safe, non-violent, nurturing homes
Parenting
programme
Target for
individuals on
programme
Improve
parenting skills
Tracking causal links
Call for an appointment for parenting programme 100
Appear for an assessment and first session 60
Attend first three and demonstrate new skill 40
Attend all sessions and demonstrate 3 skills 25
Control anger for 3 months 15
Control anger for 6 months 13
No. people Milestones
Reduce time and effort put in
Understand what is already good and could be even better
Look at contribution made by activities to outcomes (outputs)
What does not contribute and we could stop doing?
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