TMAW year in review and annual awards
Bill Dennison
November 12–13, 2008U.S. Geological Survey
Baltimore, MD
Input to CBP Health and Restoration report
Updates for 2007–2008:• Water clarity• Dissolved oxygen• Chlorophyll a
Completed annual communication cycle
Summer review features prominently on CBP website
Released 2007 Report Card• 2nd year of the report card
• Wider dissemination
Generated ecological forecast
Repeat of previous years:
• Anoxia = Poor conditions (1.7 ± 1.27 km3) • Hypoxia = Poor conditions (9.9 km3)
• Microcystis = Low to
moderate severity
Added Prorocentrum forecast
Heroes: Don Scavia, Dave Jasinski, Peter Tango, and Jon Anderson
Resolved Total Suspended Solids (TSS) issue
• Issue: Discontinuity of statistical properties (i.e. apparent step-trend) observed in the TSS data.
• Outcome:– “No smoking gun”– Likely methodological transition in VA
mainstem sample analysis.
Heroes: Michael Williams, Tish Robertson, and Jeni Keisman
Explored water clarity decline
Heroes: Claire Buchanan, Bill Romano, Renee Karrh, and Mike Lane
• Decline in mainstem Bay and lower reaches of tributaries
• 1980s: 30 to 40% of goal• 200s: 10 to 20% of goal
• Newsletter underway
Contributions to Estuarine Research Federation meeting
• Members of TMAW were well-represented at ERF in Providence, RI (Nov 2007)
• Range of topics:– Phytoplankton IBI– Cyanobacteria– Picnoclines– Health index / Indicators, – Water clarity, forecasting etc
Chesapeake Bay Phytoplankton Index of Biotic Integrity by Salinity Regime
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
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1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
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2001
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2003
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2006
Area W
eig
hte
d P
IBI>
=3
MH\PH TF\OH
Heroes: all of TMAW
• Facilitated and edited feasibility report for 4D interpolation for Chesapeake Bay
• Designed and programmed fortran module for DO and Chl a criteria assessment for Bay Program’s estuarine water quality model
• Worked collaboratively on a comprehensive review of potential attainment of water clarity thresholds
• Implemented Chesapeake Bay interpolator to calculate hypoxic and anoxic volumes
Additional impacts/projects
Heroes: Jeni Keisman and Jake Goodwin
Future for TMAWTasks:• More effective feedback to management:
– Finer spatial and temporal scales
– Ability to measure/track incremental improvements
– Redesign monitoring (STAC and MASC feedback)
– Feedback on what BMP working / not working
• Water clarity decline (Long-term trends: Gang of “N”)• Improved communication and dissemination
• regime shift : picoplankton and others• Existing commitments: report card, health and
restoration report
Logistics:• CBP restructure transition• Initiate joint TMAW – Non-tidal workgroup meetings
Old Chesapeake Bay Program
Tidal
Monitoring
Analysis
Workgroup
Data AnalysisWorkGroup
Darth Maw, T Maw’s
Star Wars brother
Shed Dawg, CBP Dawg’s brother
Old Chesapeake Bay Program
Totally
Mundane
And
Worthless
Dimwitted AndWithoutGreatness
Darth Maw, T Maw’s
Star Wars brother
Shed Dawg, CBP Dawg’s brother
Old Chesapeake Bay Program
Totally
Mundane
And
Worthless+
Nontidal
Water
Quality
Workgroup=
MonitoringAnalysisSubCommittee
Old Chesapeake Bay Program
Totally
Mundane
And
Worthless+
Nobody
With
Quick
Wits=
MakingAtrocious &SillyConclusions
New and Improved Chesapeake Bay Program
Monitoring&Modeling
• Making
• Atrocious &
• Silly
• Conclusions
New and Improved Chesapeake Bay Program
Magnificant&Marvelous
• Making
• Atrocious &
• Silly
• Conclusions
Once upon a time, there were bunch of
who had of data.
They ed this data
to produce a .
These scientists were
no and they
figured that they could predict
the future by simply connecting the .
But it turned out that they told some
and they got from their colleagues, who said
“Are you ?”
But the of this
forecasting effort was the
science that
resulted.
2008 Forecast Awards
For the we’re so bad, we quit forecasting logic of JJ Orth,
“Let’s quit while we’re behind SAV
forecast award”
X
2008 Forecast Awards
For the wide error bar logic of Dave Jasinski,
“Let’s cover all contingencies anoxia
forecast award”
2008 Forecast Awards
For the can’t get any worse than last year logic of Don Scavia,
“Let’s try, try again hypoxia forecast
award”
2008 Forecast Awards
For the fuzzy logic of Jon Anderson,
“Let’s roll the fuzzy dice for the Prorocentrum forecast award”
2008 Forecast Awards
For the no logic of Peter Tango,
“Let’s see if we can get it wrong it every single time forecast award”
Gnarly Head Award
• Peter Tango
• Routinely attempts to tackle gnarly problems even when he should know better
Gollywobbler Award
• Jeni Keisman
• Enhancing TMAW capacity all while keeping her dissertation alive
Herding Cats Award
• Jake Goodwin
• Managing academic and agency personnel who randomly stray off (and sometimes bite or scratch)
2007 Report Card Awards
• Maryland and Virginia sampling teams– For sampling year round in all conditions– For recording and checking data for
precision and accuracy – For collecting more data/person than
anywhere known– For processing samples and delivering
them to analytical laboratories in a timely manner
2008 Report Card Awards
• Maryland and Virginia sampling teams– For sampling year round in all conditions– For recording and checking data for
precision and accuracy – For collecting more data/person than
anywhere known– For processing samples and delivering
them to analytical laboratories in a timely mannerA
2008 Report Card Awards
• Maryland and Virginia data analysts– For recording and checking large data
streams and highlighting issues as they develop
– For managing large and complex database– For analyzing data for status and trends– For delivering data in a timely manner for
multiple requests
2007 Report Card Awards
• Maryland and Virginia data analysts– For recording and checking large data
streams and highlighting issues as they develop
– For managing large and complex database– For analyzing data for status and trends– For delivering data in a timely manner for
multiple requests A
2007 Report Card Awards
• Report card team– Analyzing past 20+years of data– Rapid turnaround– Feeding communication team (maps, time
courses, etc.)– Linking Bay health index to land use– Applying analysis to 2010 Trust Fund
2007 Report Card Awards
• Report card team– Analyzing past 20+years of data– Rapid turnaround– Feeding communication team (maps, time
courses, etc.)– Linking Bay health index to land use– Applying analysis to 2010 Trust Fund A
2007 Report Card Awards
• Communication team– Media event planning and execution– Quality graphics and printed materials – Developing web materials including on line
graphics– Help scientists frame questions and tell
stories
2007 Report Card Awards
• Communication team– Media event planning and execution– Quality graphics and printed materials – Developing web materials including on line
graphics– Help scientists frame questions and tell
storiesA
2007 Report Card Awards
• Sampling, analysis, report card and communication teams– For accelerating data analyses without losing
quality– For producing multiple products throughout the
year– For recording and checking data for precision and
accuracy – For collecting, analyzing and interpreting huge
amounts of data– For effectively elevating the public conversation
about Chesapeake Bay
2007 Report Card Awards
• Sampling, analysis, report card and communication teams– For accelerating data analyses without losing
quality– For producing multiple products throughout the
year– For recording and checking data for precision and
accuracy – For collecting, analyzing and interpreting huge
amounts of data– For effectively elevating the public conversation
about Chesapeake Bay A+
Group Photo
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