Thomas J. Sugrue
Opening RemarksAugust 3, 2000
Fifth Annual CMRS Competition Report
Total US Commercial Wireless Subscribers: 1992 to 1999
0
30
60
90
120
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Mil
lion
s of
Sub
scri
bers Paging/Messaging
DispatchMobile Telephone
Source: Federal Communications Commission
Charting the Growth in the Mobile Telephone Industry: 1993 - 1999
UP437%
From 16 Million
Subscribers in 1993
UP291%
From 39,810 Jobs in 1993
DOWN33%
From $61.48per Month in
1993
UP411% From $14
Billion as of 1993
DOWN68% From 24
Months for Comparative
Hearings
Subscribers Jobs CapitalInvestment
AverageSubscriber
Bill
Wait forLicenses
86 MillionSubscribers in 1999
156,817 Jobs in1999
$71.3 BillionInvested as of 1999
$41.24 Dollars PerMonth in 1999
7.8 Months From Application to GrantSource: Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association
BTAs with MobileTelephone Competition
BTAs with > 2 OperatorsBTAs with < 2 Operators
MTAs and BTAs are based on Material Copyright (c) 1992 Rand McNally & Company.Rights granted pursuant to a license from Rand McNally & Company through anarrangement with the Personal Communications Industry Association. There are 51MTAs and 493 BTAs.
Source: Federal Communications Commission estimatesbased on publicly available information.
Estimated Nextel Communications Inc. Digital SMR Network Coverage Using iDEN Technology
Markets with More Than Two Mobile Telephone Providers: December 1994
BTAs with > 2 OperatorsBTAs with <= 2 Operators
BTAs with MobileTelephone Competition
Mobile Telephone Operatorswith Coverage in a BTA
4 Operators3 Operators2 Operators
Mobile telephone operators included in analysis are cellular, broadband PCS, and Nextel Communications.MTAs and BTAs are based on Material Copyright (c) 1992 Rand McNally & Company.Rights granted pursuant to a license from Rand McNally & Company through anarrangement with the Personal Communications Industry Association. There are 51MTAs and 493 BTAs.
Source: Federal Communications Commission estimatesbased on publicly available information.
Estimated Mobile Telephony Service Deployment: Number ofOperators in Each BTA with Some Level of Coverage
Markets with More Than Two Mobile Telephone Providers: December 1996
Mobile Telephone Operatorswith Coverage in a BTA
7 Operators6 Operators5 Operators4 Operators3 Operators2 Operators
Mobile telephone operators included in analysis are cellular, broadband PCS, and Nextel Communications.
MTAs and BTAs are based on Material Copyright (c) 1992 Rand McNally & Company.Rights granted pursuant to a license from Rand McNally & Company through anarrangement with the Personal Communications Industry Association. There are 51MTAs and 493 BTAs.
Source: Federal Communications Commission estimatesbased on publicly available information.
Estimated Mobile Telephony Service Deployment: Number ofOperators in Each BTA with Some Level of Coverage
Markets with More Than Two Mobile Telephone Providers: November 1999
Mobile Telephone Competition
87.8%79.8%
68.5%
34.6%
4.4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
3 or more 4 or more 5 or more 6 or more 7
Number of Competitors in a Market
Per
cent
of U
.S. P
opul
atio
n
Source: Federal Communications Commission
Historical and Projected Average Price Per Minute for Mobile Telephone Service
$0.45
$0.53
$0.58 $0.57 $0.56$0.54
$0.43
$0.35
$0.28
$0.24$0.22
$0.20 $0.19 $0.18 $0.17
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ave
rage
Pri
ce P
er M
inut
e
Source: The Strategis Group, 2000
Entry Level Pricing for DOR-Type Plans (1998 vs 2000)
$89.99
$39.99
$59.99
$29.99
$35
$19.99
0 20 40 60 80 100
Sprint - 2000
Sprint - 2000
Verizon - 2000
Voicetream - 2000
AT&T - 2000
AT&T - 1998
Price Per Month
20 minutes
180 minutes
150 minutes
300 minutes
300 minutes
600 minutes
Source: Company Web sites.
The Sugrues “Graduate” to a “Share-a-Minute” Plan
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
1998 1999
To
tal M
on
thly
Ex
pe
nd
itu
re
$0.00
$0.25
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
Pri
ce
Pe
r M
inu
te
??
Source: Sugrue family budget Monthly Expenditure Price per Minute
64¢/min
19¢/min
Separate Plans$45 for
70 mins. CombinedPlan$40 for
210 mins.
1999 Wireless Penetration
Source: Dennis H. Leibowitz, et al, The Global Wireless Communications Industry, Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, Winter 1999-2000, at 62 and 75.
65%57%
52%
41% 38% 37% 35% 32%28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Finl
and
Swed
en
Ital
y
U.K
.
Spai
n
Japa
n
Fran
ce
U.S
.
Ger
man
y
Change in Wireless Penetration (1998-1999)
Source: Dennis H. Leibowitz, et al, The Global Wireless Communications Industry, Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, Winter 1999-2000, at 62.
111%
86% 84%
65%
49%
28% 27%12% 12%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%S
pain
UK
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Italy
U.S
.
Jap
an
Fin
lan
d
Sw
eden
Average Minutes of Use Per Month - 2000E
221204
186 182
145 137 132 132 123
0
50
100
150
200
250
U.S
.
Sw
eden
U.K
.
Fra
nce
Eur
o A
vg.
Spa
in
Ital
y
Fin
land
Ger
man
y
Ave
rage
MO
U P
er M
onth
Source: Michael I. Rollins, The Wireless EDGE, Salomon Smith Barney, May 23, 2000, at 5.
Average Annual Price for Basket of Digital Mobile Service for Personal Use (August 1999)
$447 $480
$658 $684$765
$837 $886
$1,081
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
Fin
land U.S
.
U.K
.
Ave
rage
Fra
nce
Swed
en
Ger
man
y
Ital
y
Source: OECD, Cellular Mobile Pricing Structure and Trends, May 2000, at ??.
U.S. Subscribers vs Total Subscribers Abroad
0
20
40
60
80
100
U.S. Japan UK Sweden Finland
Mill
ion
s
Source: Dennis H. Leibowitz et al, The Global Wireless Communications Industry, Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, Summer 2000, at 64.
Total Mobile Telephone Subscribers - 1999
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