Thinking Module 23 Online link
Our brains reached full size about 300,000 years ago. Art, tool
making etc. appeared only about 75,000 years ago. Vilayanur S.
Ramachandran The Tell Tale Brain pg. 118 Earliest tools. Oldowan,
about 2.4million years ago. Vilayanur S. Ramachandran The Tell Tale
Brain pg. 119 The Thinker is a bronze and marble sculpture by
Auguste Rodin, whose first cast, of 1902, is now in the Muse Rodin
in Paris; there are some twenty other original castings as well as
various other versions, studies, and posthumous castings. It
depicts a man in sober meditation battling with a powerful internal
struggle.[1] It is often used to represent philosophy. Look for
Whorf Hypothesis labs or activities. Module Thinking Overview
Thinking Concepts Solving Problems
Making Decisions and Forming Judgments The limits of everyday
intuition are easily demonstrated in class. For example, Shane
Frederick (cited by Kahneman, 2003) suggests a simple puzzle: A bat
and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1 more than the
ball. How much does the ball cost? Most people report an initial
tendency to answer 10 cents because the sum $1.10 separates easily
into $1 and 10 cents and because 10 cents is about the right
magnitude. Frederick reported that 50 percent of Princeton students
and 56 percent of University of Michigan students gave this wrong
answer. Simple subtraction convinces students of their error: $1.00
for the bat $0.10 for the ball = $0.90, not $1.00. The correct
answer is $1.05 for the bat, $0.05 for the ball. Or, present the
classic horse-trading problem. A man bought a horse for $60 and
sold it for $70. Then he bought the same horse back for $80 and
again sold it, for $90. How much money did he make in the horse
business? Although the problem seems simple enough, most American
college students answer incorrectly. David Myers reports that even
most German banking executives get it wrong. The most common answer
is $10. Respondents apparently reason that when the man buys the
horse back for $80 he lost the $10 he made in the original deal.
The man actually made $20. You can show this by comparing the total
amount paid out ($140) with the total amount taken in ($160).
Alternatively, present the problem in modified form. Instead of
having the man buy the horse back for $80, state that he bought
firewood for $80 and then sold it for $90. The problem suddenly
becomes easier. You can also use this manipulation to introduce the
importance of framing discussed later in the module. (Bolt) Module
Thinking Cognition Cognitive Psychologists
mental activities associated with thinking, knowing, remembering,
and communicating Cognitive Psychologists study these mental
activities concept formation problem solving decision making
judgment formation From Lahey 9e Cognition is active Information is
Obtained through senses Transformed through interpretive processes
Stored and retrieved through memory Used in problem solving and
language 65. In studying the behavior of five year olds in
free-play situations, a cognitive psychologist would be most
interested in the childrens (AP12) A. problem solving strategies B.
toy preferences C. degree of cooperative behavior D. prosocial play
activities E. choice of playmates The stage had now been set for
people to consider the physical brain as having a relationship with
perception. In 1886, years after both Weber and Miller had died, an
American named James McKeen Cattell published a paper entitled "The
time taken up by cerebral operations."9 The punch line of his paper
was deceptively simple: how quickly you can react to a question
depends on the type of thinking you have to do. If you simply have
to respond that you've seen a flash or a bang, you can do so quite
rapidly (190 milliseconds for flashes and 160 milliseconds for
bangs). But if you have to make a choice ("tell me whether you saw
a red flash or a green flash"), it takes some tens of milliseconds
longer. And if you have to name what you just saw ("I saw a blue
flash"), it takes longer still. From Incognito: The Secret Lives of
the Brain, David Eagleman Module Thinking Concept Prototype
mental grouping of similar objects, events, ideas, or people
Prototype mental image or best example of a category matching new
items to the prototype provides a quick and easy method for
including items in a category (as when comparing feathered
creatures to a prototypical bird, such as a robin) We form some
concepts with definitions. For example, a triangle has three sides.
Mostly, we form concepts with mental images or typical examples
(prototypes). For example, a robin is a prototype of a bird, but a
penguin is not. Incorporates all the features we associate with a
category (Rosch 1978) We recognize things closer to prototypes more
quickly A prototype is best defined as (AP94) (A) An example of
habituation (B) An example of bottom-up processing (C) The
equivalent of feature abstraction (D) The hypothetical "most
typical" instance of a category (E) An essential element of
category membership Module In Class Exercise on Prototypes
Classroom Exercise: Introducing Prototypes Betsy Decyk has devised
an exercise for introducing prototypes. Tell your students that
even though you have known most of them for only a short time, you
already know much about what and how they think. Have them take out
a piece of paper and respond to the categories you are about to
list with the very first example that comes to mind. 1. a bird 2. a
color 3. a triangle (drawing a picture is just fine) 4. a motor
vehicle 5. a sentence 6. a hero 7. a heroic action 8. a game 9. a
philosopher 10. a writer After students have finished, say that you
will predict many, if not most, of their answers even before they
reveal them. Give the following: 1. a robin, sparrow, or eagle 2.
red or blue 3. a picture of an equilateral triangle 4. a car 5. a
short declarative statement, e.g., The boy ran home. 6. Superman,
Batman, or possibly a fireman 7. a single act by a male, e.g. a
rescue by a fireman 8. Socrates or Aristotle 9. monopoly or some
other board game 10. Stephen King, or some other white male author
Module Triangle (definition) Bird (mental image)
We form some concepts with definitions. For example, a triangle has
three sides. Mostly, we form concepts with mental images or typical
examples (prototypes). For example, a robin is a prototype of a
bird, but a penguin is not. Explain that we tend to think in terms
of the best example of a category, or prototype. Within a given
culture, there tends to be considerable agreement, in fact near
consensus, on some prototypes. However, they may vary across
cultures. As Diane Halpern explains, if you live in Australia, you
might name kiwi as a bird, most Russians would probably name
Pushkin, Tolstoy, or Chekhov as an example of a writer. Decyk, B.
N. (1994). Using examples to teach concepts. In D. F. Halpern
(Ed.), Changing college classrooms: New teaching and learning
strategies for an increasingly complex world (pp. 3963). San
Francisco: Jossey-Bass. Halpern, D. (2003). Thought and knowledge
(4th ed.). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum. J. Messerschmidt/ The
Picture Cube Daniel J. Cox/ Getty Images Triangle (definition) Bird
(mental image) Module We organize concepts into category
hierarchies.
To demonstrate the most popular method for measuring cognitive
complexity, have your students think of a person they like and a
person they dislike, then take a total of 10 minutes to write
descriptions of these people. They should pay special attention to
the persons habits, beliefs, ways of treating others, mannerisms,
and similar attributesany aspect of the persons personality or
behavior but not physical characteristics. Finally, they should add
the total number of different constructs they used for the two
descriptions. With this technique, researchers typically obtain a
wide variation of scores from college students. In one study the
scores ranged from 5 to 43, with a mean of 16. What difference does
cognitive complexity make? Jerry Burger describes a number of
implications. For example, among politicians and world leaders,
cognitive complexity has been related to political ideology. In
describing the issues of the day, conservative U.S. senators make
significantly fewer complex statements than do moderate and liberal
senators. Among members of the British House of Commons, extremists
from either side tend to see things in the simplest manner. A
cognitively complex person is also better able to take the
perspective of others, that is, to see the world through their
eyes. Research also suggests that cognitively complex people are
more persuasive than those low on this variable. They seem to match
their arguments to the audience they are trying to persuade.
Finally, people who are high in cognitive complexity are better
able to deal with ambiguity. Because they are better able to make
sense of events in their world, they are less likely to become
anxious when confronted with unexpected or unstructured situations.
Burger, J. (2004). Personality (6th ed.). Belmont, CA: Wadsworth.
From Bolt, build lab for this. Courtesy of Christine Brune Module
Categories Once we place an item in a category, our memory shifts
toward the category prototype. Tell the students that Jesus was
Asian, it will blow their minds because it is so opposite their
prototype of Jesus. Yes, um.the middle east is in Asia. Courtesy of
Oliver Corneille A computer generated face that was 70 percent
Caucasian led people to classify it as Caucasian. Module Problem
solving strategies include:
Preview Question 2: What strategies do we use to solve problems,
and what obstacles hinder our problem solving? Trial and error is
straightforward Boys tendency to rely on more flexible
problem-solving approaches doesn't just occur at the high school
level; it happens as early as elementary school. Despite the fact
that there are not usually sex differences in mathematical
achievement in the early grades, observation of classroom behavior
shows that girls are more likely to use standard calculation
procedures for arithmetic whereas boys often take more flexible,
unconventional problem-solving approaches. For example, when asked
to calculate , girls are more likely, in a step-by-step fashion, to
first add the ones digits, 8 and 6, get 14, carry the 1, add that
to the tens digits 3 and 2, and end up at 64. Boys, on the other
hand, might decide that 30 and 20 is 50, and 8 makes 58; then 6
more is Where do these strategy differences come from? In another
study, when third- and fourth-grade students were interviewed about
how they could solve arithmetic problems like those above, everyone
reported that they knew about both the standard and unconventional
problem-solving methods, but only the boys actually used the
unconventional approaches. From Choke: What the Secrets of the
Brain Reveal About Getting It Right When You Have To Trial and
Error Algorithms Heuristics Insight Module Thinking Algorithm
methodical, logical rule or procedure that guarantees solving a
particular problem contrasts with the usually speedierbut also more
error-prone--use of heuristics Check every product in the
supermarket until you find guava juiceslow, but eventually you will
find it. Module S P L O Y O C H Y G Algorithms
Algorithms, which are very time consuming, exhaust all
possibilities before arriving at a solution. Computers use
algorithms. Heuristicthrow out all YY combinations Processing every
possible combination of the letters DBRI to arrive at the word BIRD
is an example of the use of (AP99) (A) An algorithm (B) An expert
system (C) An inference rule (D) A hypothesis (E) A heuristic S P L
O Y O C H Y G If we were to unscramble these letters to form a word
using an algorithmic approach, we would face 907,200 possibilities.
Module Heuristics with the psych files 15:12
Heuristics are mental shortcuts that allow us to make judgments and
solve problems efficiently. Heuristics are less time consuming, but
more error-prone than algorithms. Heuristics with the psych files
15:12 Look for guava juice in the juice isle or ethnic food
sectionmay find it quicker, may not find it at all. The practice of
solving problems by using a mental shortcut is an example of (AP04)
(A) An insightful operation (B) A confirmation bias (C) A
hypothesis test (D) The use of a heuristic (E) The use of an
algorithm 83. Mental shortcuts or rules of thumb that help solve
problems and reduce mental effort are called (AP12) A. heuristics
B. algorithms C. syllogisms D. propositions E. concepts B2M
Productions/Digital Version/Getty Images Module Put a Y at the end,
and see if the word
Heuristics Heuristics make it easier for us to use simple
principles to arrive at solutions to problems. S P L O Y O C H Y G
S P L O Y O C H G Y P S L O Y O C H G Y P S Y C H O L O G Y Put a Y
at the end, and see if the word begins to make sense. Module
Insight Insight involves a sudden novel realization of a solution
to a problem. Humans and animals have insight. Chimp Problem
solving: Grande using boxes to obtain food Module Try to connect
these dots with three lines, without lifting your pencil from the
paper or retracing any of the lines you draw. You must also end the
drawing where you began it. You can take up to three minutes. Try
to connect these dots with three lines, without lifting your pencil
from the paper or retracing any of the lines you draw. You must
also end the drawing where you began it. You can take up to three
minutes. Have you finished? If you haven't, fear not; you're far
from being alone. In fact, you're like 78 percent of study
participants who were given the problem to solve. If you have, how
long did it take you? Consider this: if I had turned on a light
bulb in your line of sight while you were working on the problem,
you would have been more likely to solve it if you hadn't solved it
already, a full 44 percent of people who saw a lit light bulb
solved the puzzle, as contrasted with the 22 percent in the
original condition (the one that you just experienced) and you
would have solved it faster than you might have otherwise. The bulb
will have activated insight-related concepts in your mind, and in
so doing will have primed your mind to think in a more creative
fashion than it would as a matter of course. It is an example of
priming in action. Because we associate the light bulb with
creativity and insight, we are more likely to persist at difficult
problems and to think in a creative, nonlinear fashion when we see
it turn on. All of the concepts that are stored in our attic next
to the idea of "light bulb moment" or "insight" or "eureka" become
activated, and that activation in turn helps us become more
creative in our own approaches. By the way, here's the solution to
the dot problem. Our natural mindset may well be holding us back,
but a simple prime is enough to cue it in a very different
direction indeed. Works of art on the walls do the trick, too. The
color blue. Pictures of famous creative thinkers. Happy faces.
Happy music. (in fact almost all positive cues.) Plants and flowers
and scenes of nature. All of these tend to boost our creativity
with or without our awareness. That's cause for celebration.
Whatever the stimulus, as soon as your mind begins to reflect on
the idea, you become more likely to embody that very idea. There
are even studies that show that wearing a white coat will make you
more likely to think in scientific terms and be better at solving
problems the coat likely activates the concept of researchers and
doctors, and you begin to take on the characteristics you associate
with those people. From Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock
Holmes by Maria Konnikova Module Before class, carefully draw the
following figures on the chalkboard:
Classroom Exercise: The Aha! Experience Michael Wertheimer
describes a classroom activity that is intended to demonstrate the
Aha! experience of achieving insight. The exercise involves the
presentation of a series of brain teasers that begins with the call
for simple reorganization of perceptions and proceeds to the demand
for the more challenging restructuring of abstract problems. Before
class, carefully draw the following figures on the chalkboard:
Source: Wertheimer, M. (1999). Reorganization and productive
thinking. In L. T. Benjamin et al. (Eds.), Activities handbook for
the teaching of psychology (Vol. 4, pp. 218219). Washington, DC:
American Psychological Association. Explain to your class that in
solving problems, the pieces sometimes suddenly fall together and
we perceive the solution. A reorganization or restructuring of
perception produces the aha! experience we call insight. For
example, the first line drawing might be viewed as a side view of a
squinting face. But you can reorganize it into a soldier and a dog
passing an archway; the mouth becomes the dogs tail and the
squinting eye a rifle with a bayonet. Similarly, the second figure
may first appear to be a ghoul looking over a fence and a couple of
ears sticking up over a fence. But with restructuring we may see a
custodian cleaning mud off the floor (the ghouls eyes become the
soles of the janitors shoes, and the ears become the sides of a
bucket). Module Chimp behavior showed a cognitive trial- and-error
process rather than an actual one; they were solving the problem in
their minds first, and only after an insight (the "aha" moment)
tried out their solution. This is contrary to the behaviorist view
that learning is conditioned by response to a stimulus, and
reinforced by reward. The chimps learned by perceiving the problem,
not by receiving rewards. This was a demonstration of Kohler's
dynamic model of behavior, involving organization within
perception, rather than passive learning through response to
rewards. From all about psych-I think Module Insight (it can be
seen in the brain before you are conscious of it)
Brain imaging and EEG studies suggest that when an insight strikes
(the Aha experience), it activates the right temporal cortex
(Jung-Beeman & others, 2004). The time between not knowing the
solution and responding is about 0.3 seconds. Responding by pushing
a button Because the problem required both speed and concentration,
the scientists reasoned that the solution for those who solved it
would likely pop as a sudden insight. The EEG readings confirmed
this. They showed different results between those who solved the
problem and those who could not. And better yet, just a second or
two before the reported insight occurred, there appeared to be
consistently identifiable brainwave activity. More interesting, the
EEG readings allowed researchers to predict an aha! moment up to
eight seconds in advance, because increased activity in the right
frontal cortex associated with shifting mental states announced it.
These researchers also found that a positive mood assists insight.
In a related study, the researchers gave twenty-one subjects three
words, such as head, shade, and post. They were to think of one
word (lamp) that would make a compound word with all three, while
hooked to an EEG monitor. Mental blocks correlated with high gamma
activity in the parietal cortex, which is associated with selective
attention. For those subjects with the highest gamma readings, even
clues failed to move them toward a solution, suggesting that a
mental fixation can block insight. They were mentally clenched,
like a fist. Those who experienced sudden insight showed a drop in
gamma activity levels just before they reported the insight, but
there was no such drop during conventional problem-solving
strategy. Theta waves, which assist the brain to encode new
information, increased before an aha! moment. The researchers
believed that the brain was forming new associations from whatever
information it had. In SNAP: Seizing Your Aha! Moments by Katherine
Ramsland From Mark Jung-Beekman, Northwestern University and John
Kounios, Drexel University Module Thought Puzzle #1 Predict the
next number in this sequence.
In your notes, write down your thought process. Include any dead
ends. Dont talk about your process or your answer so that everyone
can work on the puzzle. Sequence ____ Mental Set Tendency to
approach a problem in a particular way especially a way that has
been successful in the past but may or may not be helpful in
solving a new problem. Module Thought Puzzle #1 Sequence 8 5 9 1 7
2 ____
____ Now think about the words rather than the numbers
EightFiveNineOneSevenTwo _____ Alphabetical order Do problem
solving activity. Module Thought Puzzle #1 What got in the way of
solving this problem?
Mental Set - Old pattern of problem solving is applied to a new
problem. Functional Fixedness A tendency to think about familiar
objects in familiar ways which may prevent more creative use of
those objects to solve the problem. A teacher asks students to
think of as many uses for a brick as possible. By listing 50 uses,
most of which the class finds new and unusual, Susan is displaying
(AP94) (A) Computational learning (B) paired-associate learning (C)
Hypothetical thinking (D) Divergent thinking (E) Convergent
thinking Module Functional Fixedness A tendency to think only of
the familiar functions of an object. 100. Failure to recognize that
an object typically not used for a particular purpose can, in fact,
serve that purpose illustrates which of the following? (AP12) A.
Schema B. Functional fixedness C. availability D. insight E.
Confirmation Bias their ability to think about information in new
and unusual ways can actually be hampered when they wield too much
brainpower. This seems to be even more true the more you know about
a given subject. When people with lots of baseball knowledge, for
example, are asked to come up with a word that forms a compound
word with plate, broken and shot, they are pretty bad at this task.
Baseball fanatics want to say the word is home (home-plate,
broken-home, home-shot?!). This isnt correct. The real answer is
glass (glass-plate, broken-glass, shot-glass). What's interesting
is that baseball fans who also have a lot of cognitive horse-power
relative to their peers-those higher-working-memory baseball
fans---are the ones most likely to dwell on the wrong
baseball-related answer. Its as if these guys (and girls) are too
good at focusing their attention on the wrong baseball information.
As a result, they have trouble breaking free of their knowledge and
coming up with the correct answer that has nothing to do with
baseball. Baseball fanatics high in working-memory have problems
thinking outside their base-ball box. From Choke, WHAT THE SECRETS
OF THE BRAIN REVEAL ABOUT GETTING IT RIGHT WHEN YOU HAVE TO, SIAN
BEILOCK ? Problem: Tie the two ropes together. Use a screw driver,
cotton balls and a matchbox. Module Thought Puzzle #2 Connect the
dots with no more than 4 straight lines without lifting your
pen.
* Module Thought Puzzle #2 Connect the dots with no more than 4
straight lines without lifting your pen.
* Module Thought Puzzle #2 Connect the dots with no more than 4
straight lines without lifting your pen.
Many people suffer from the Mental Set which states that they must
stay within the square defined by the dots. Functional Fixedness
keeps most people in a connect the dots mode. Module Figure 8.7:
Applying a Mental Model
What path will the marble follow when it leaves the curved tube?
Classroom Exercise: Dice Games to Demonstrate Problem Solving G.
William Hill, IV, uses a simple dice game to demonstrate typical
stages in solving problems. Begin by telling your students that
they will be playing a game called Petals Around a Rose. You will
be throwing dice and after each throw you will tell how many petals
are around the rose. A specific rule determines the number of
petals, and students are to discover the rule. Also tell them that
the name of the game itself provides a clue to the rule. For the
first few throws of the dice (in larger classes use overheads to
show the dice throws or quickly draw them on the chalkboard),
simply identify the correct number of petals. After the first three
throws, have students attempt to guess the number of petals before
telling them the correct answer. Simply inform them whether their
guess is correct or incorrect; do not confirm a particular rule.
Begin by throwing five dice. To facilitate acquisition of the rule,
progressively reduce the number of dice. Most students will figure
out the rule by the time you reduce the number to two or one. The
rule is very simplea rose is defined as a die with a center dot
(always an odd number). The total number of petals is the sum of
all the dots that occur around the center dot (on all the dice
thrown that have the dot). After completing the game, ask
volunteers to describe how they solved the problem. Some may refer
to insight. Others are likely to describe a process of hypothesis
formation, testing, and revising. Also ask what information they
attended to in attempting to solve the problem and why. Do
obstacles in problem solving reflect problems in isolating relevant
information or are they also the result of frustration or
performance anxiety? Hill, G. W. (1991, August). Craps in the
classroom: Dice games to demonstrate problem-solving. Paper
presented at the Annual Convention of the American Psychological
Association, San Francisco, CA. Module Manipulating Images Are
these pairs of objects the same or different?
Only (A) is the same. PsychSim 5: My Head Is Spinning This activity
demonstrates thinking with verbal concepts and mental images, using
the concept of mental rotation, thus you may want to hold this
until you cover thinking with images. The issue of mental rotation
is introduced and explained with reference to the classic studies
by Roger Shepard and colleagues. Students participate in a
simulation involving mental rotation of the letter R in the picture
plane. Their results are graphed and compared with the pattern of
results from Cooper and Shepard (1973). Interestingly the more
different numbers are the quicker we can tell them apart. Which is
greater 5 or 7, which is greater 12 or 550, the greater the
distance the shorter the response time. Vilayanur S. Ramachandran
The Tell Tale Brain pg. 110 Return Module Obstacles in Solving
Problems
Confirmation Bias: A tendency to search for information that
confirms a personal bias. When given this problem people only test
solutions that match their bias. Rule: Any ascending series of
numbers. 1 2 3 would comply. Watsons students had difficulty
figuring out the rule due to a confirmation bias (Watson, 1960). 2
37. A student who strongly believes that genetic influence is the
major contributor to human personality is analyzing data gathered
about identical twins who had been separated at birth and reunited
at adulthood. The student observes many striking similarities in
personality and habits within the twin pairs but does not notice
differences within the twin pairs that might argue against the
students belief. This students behavior illustrates which of the
following? (AP04) (A) Confirmation bias (B) The availability
heuristic (C) An algorithmic error (D) Metacognition (E) A mnemonic
2 4 6 Discover the rule Module Fixation Fixation: An inability to
see a problem from a fresh perspective. This impedes problem
solving. An example of fixation is functional fixedness. Stuck
container in drain as an example On a fishing trip, Ed realizes
that he has mistakenly packed the sewing box instead of the tackle
box. He wants to fish but returns home because he does not have any
line or hooks. Ed's failure to realize that sewing thread can be
used as fishing line and that a bent needle can be used as a hook
is an example of (AP94) (A) Poor problem representation (B)
Cognitive accommodation (C) Backward masking (D) Functional
fixedness (E) Proactive interference The Matchstick Problem: How
would you arrange six matches to form four equilateral triangles?
From Problem Solving by M. Scheerer. Copyright 1963 by Scientific
American, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Module Candle-Mounting
Problem
Using these materials, how would you mount the candle on a bulletin
board? From Problem Solving by M. Scheerer. Copyright 1963 by
Scientific American, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Module The
Three-Jugs Problem
Using jugs A, B, and C, with the capacities shown, how would you
measure out the volumes indicated? Module Figure 8.6: Six standard
problems used in studies of problem solving.
Try solving the problems and identifying which class each belongs
to before reading further. The problems can be classified as
follows. The analogy problems and series completion problems are
problems of inducing structure. The solutions for the analogy
problems are Buy and Patient. The solutions for the series
completion problems are 4 and E. The string problem and the anagram
problems are problems of arrangement. To solve the string problem,
attach the screwdriver to one string and set it swinging as a
pendulum. Hold the other string and catch the swinging screwdriver.
Then you need only untie the screwdriver and tie the strings
together. The solutions for the anagram problems are WATER and
JOKER. The hobbits and orcs problem and the water jar problem are
problems of transformation. The solutions for these problems are
outlined in Figures 8.7 and 8.8. Fig. 8-6, p. 311 Module Figure
8.7: Solution to the hobbits and orcs problem.
This problem is difficult because it is necessary to temporarily
work away from the goal. Fig. 8-7, p. 312 Module The Matchstick
Problem: Solution
From Problem Solving by M. Scheerer. Copyright 1963 by Scientific
American, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Module Candle-Mounting Problem:
Solution
Module The Three-Jugs Problem
Solution: a)All seven problems can be solved by the equation shown
in (a): B - A - 2C = desired volume. b) But simpler solutions exist
for problems 6 and 7, such as A - C for problem 6. Module Making
Decision & Forming Judgments
Each day we make hundreds of judgments and decisions based on our
intuition, seldom using systematic reasoning. Preview Question 3:
How do heuristics, overconfidence, and framing influence our
decisions and judgments? Link BBC Horizion How to make better
decisions 48:48 Link How to make better decisions Module Using and
Misusing Heuristics
Two kinds of heuristics, representative heuristics and availability
heuristics, have been identified by cognitive psychologists.
Heuristics are mental shortcuts Courtesy of Greymeyer Award,
University of Louisville and the Tversky family Courtesy of
Greymeyer Award, University of Louisville and Daniel Kahneman Amos
Tversky Daniel Kahneman Module Representativeness Heuristic
Judging the likelihood of things or objects in terms of how well
they seem to represent, or match, a particular prototype. Ivy
league universities 10 Classics profs at each 4, total 40 Short ,
20 Read poetry , 10 Truck drivers 400,000 Short , 100,000 Read
poetry 1/100, 1000 If you meet a slim, short, man who wears glasses
and likes poetry, what do you think his profession would be? More
likely an ivy league professor or a truck driver? Probability that
that person is a truck driver is far greater than an ivy league
professor just because there are more truck drivers than such
professors. Module All (except one) of these animals fit the
concept of penguin
The guy is not representative of penguins Module Heuristics
Availability Heuristic
How about how this influences views on race or immigration or
terrorism Are there more words starting with k or that have k as
the 3rd lettermake, likely, acknowledged, ask, asked, Ones with K
at the start come to mined more readily How recently we heard about
and event, how vivid it was, how concrete it was, how distinct it
was Availability Heuristic estimating the likelihood of events
based on their availability in memory if instances come readily to
mind (perhaps because of their vividness), we presume such events
are common Example:airplane crash Module Overconfidence
Overconfidence: tendency to overestimate the accuracy of our
beliefs and judgments. Even when we have 100% confidence we err
about 15% of the time Students routinely misjudge how long projects
and papers will take, they actually take about 2x longer than they
think (Buehler 1994) We overestimate our future free time
(Zauberman 2005) TED Laurie Santos looks for the roots of human
irrationality by watching the way our primate relatives make
decisions. A clever series of experiments in "monkeynomics" shows
that some of the silly choices we make, monkeys make too. A bit dry
In the stock market, both the seller and the buyer may be confident
about their decisions on a stock. Mind over Money at NOVA 52:52
Module overconfidence increases with action
overconfidence increases with action. As we actively engage, we
become more confident in what we are doing. Finally, overconfidence
increases with action. As we actively engage, we become more
confident in what we are doing. In another classic study, Langer
found that individuals who flipped a coin themselves, in contrast
to watching someone else flip it, were more confident in being able
to predict heads or tails accurately, even though, objectively, the
probabilities remained unchanged. Furthermore, individuals who
chose their own lottery ticket were more confident in a lucky
outcome than they were if a lottery ticket was chosen for them. And
in the real world, the effects are just as pronounced. Let's take
the case of traders once again. The more they trade, the more
confident they tend to become in their ability to make good trades.
As a result, they often overtrade, and in so doing undermine their
prior performance. But forewarned is forearmed. An awareness of
these elements can help you counteract them. It all goes back to
the message at the beginning of the chapter: we must continue to
learn. The best thing you can do is to acknowledge that you, too,
will inevitably stumble, be it from stagnation or overconfidence,
its closely related near opposite (I say near because
overconfidence creates the illusion of movement, as oppose From
Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes by Maria Konnikova
Module You might steal more when asked NOT to
Sign posted that condemned the fact that many visitors steal the
wood from Petrified Forest National Park. In the absence of the
sign 3% stole wood In the presence of the sign 8% stole wood
Messages that condemn yet highlight undesired social norms are
common, and that they invite counterproductive results In a related
study, researchers created a sign condemning the fact that many
visitors steal the wood from Petrified Forest National Park. They
placed the sign on a well-used pathway, along with some secretly
marked pieces of wood. Then they watched to see what effect the
sign would have. They found that in the absence of a sign, souvenir
hunters stole about 3 percent of the wood pieces in just a ten-hour
period. But with the warning sign in place, that number almost
tripled, to 8 percent. Again, it is doubtful that many of the
pilferers literally said to themselves, Everyone does it, so why
not me? But that seems to be the message received by their
unconscious. The researchers pointed out that messages that condemn
yet highlight undesired social norms are common, and that they
invite counterproductive results. So while a college administration
may think it is warning students when it says, "Remember! You must
cut down on binge drinking, which is prevalent on campus!" what
sinks in may instead be a call to action: Remember! Binge drinking
is prevalent on campus! From Subliminal: How your unconscious mind
rules your behavior. Module The 9/11 attacks led to a decline in
air travel due to fear.
Exaggerated Fear Exaggerated fear: about what may happen. Such
fears may be unfounded. This is opposite ofhaving overconfidence.
The 9/11 attacks led to a decline in air travel due to fear. 39.5
times more likely to die in auto accidents than in plane
crashesmore traffic deaths since 9/11 because people were afraid to
fly We fear what our ancestral history has prepared us to fear,
confinement, heights, we fear what we cannot control, flying not
driving, we fear immediate threats, takeoff, landing, we perceive
the dangers of driving across many moments AP/ Wide World Photos
Module We often fear the wrong things
What is most likely to kill someone your age15-24. Murder? Criminal
violence? Accidents, mostly car wrecks As a group you are more
likely to kill yourself than to be murdered! Are you more likely to
be burglarized or steal from your work? Why We Are Dishonest, and
What We Can Do about It In 2004, the total cost of all robberies in
the United States was $525 million, and the average loss from a
single robbery was about $1,300. These amounts are not very high,
when we consider how much police, judicial, and corrections muscle
is put into the capture and confinement of robbers let alone the
amount of newspaper and television coverage these kinds of crimes
elicit. I'm not suggesting that we go easy on career criminals, of
course. They are thieves, and we must protect ourselves from their
acts. But consider this: every year, employees' theft and fraud the
workplace are estimated at about $600 billion. That figure is
dramatically higher than the combined financial cost than robbery,
burglary, larceny-theft, and automobile theft (totaling about $16
billion in 2004); it is much more than what career criminals in the
United States could steal in their lifetimes; and it's also almost
twice the market capitalization of General Electric. But there's
much more. Each year, according to reports by the insurance
industry, individuals add a bogus $24 billion to their claims of
property losses The IRS, meanwhile, estimates a loss of $350
billion per year, representing the gap between what the feds think
people should pay in taxes and what they do pay. The retail
industry has its own headache: it loses $16 billion a year to
customers who buy clothes, wear them with the tags tucked in. and
return these secondhand clothes for a full refund. Add to this
sundry everyday examples of dishonesty the congressman accepting
golfing junkets from his favorite lobbyist; the physician making
kickback deals with the laboratories that he uses; the corporate
executive who backdates his stock options to boost his final pay
and you have a huge amount of unsavory economic activity,
dramatically larger than that of the standard household crooks.
From Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely Source, how will you die
graphic Module Thinking Framing the way an issue is posed
how an issue is framed can significantly affect decisions and
judgments Example:What is the best way to market ground beef--as
25% fat or 75% lean? 10% die with a surgery 90% survive Most people
feel more risk when surgeons say 10% die. 9/10 college students say
condom effective with 95% success rate stopping aids 4/10 say
effective with 5% failure rate More people think a 1/20 event will
happen than a 10/200 More people scared by numbers than %, if
chemical exposure kills 10 in 10 million that is scarier than %
Ground beef 75% lean is more appealing than 25% fat Framing is used
to influence you. Do custody judge framing activity Does presenting
Hitler in the style of an iconic image soften his appearance Module
Thinking Belief Bias Belief Perseverance
the tendency for ones preexisting beliefs to distort logical
reasoning sometimes by making invalid conclusions seem valid or
valid conclusions seem invalid Belief Perseverance clinging to ones
initial conceptions after the basis on which they were formed has
been discredited Belief perseverance is the tendency to cling to
our beliefs in the face of contrary evidence. If you see that a
country is hostile, you are likely to interpret their ambiguous
actions as a sign of hostility (Jervis, 1985). Study took two
groups, one supported capital punishment, one opposedgiven new
findingseach group interpreted findings to fit their beliefs.
Implications for racism, gangs, republican/democrat Cure for belief
bias.consider the opposite, asked to consider opposite groups were
more objective. Consistency is adaptive, inconsistency thought to
be undesirable (Allgeier 1979) 54 Once we make a choice or take a
stand we encounter personal and interpersonal pressure to behave
consistently w/that commitment (Fazio 1992) 53 It would appear that
we are biased AGAINST open mindedness. Cialdini, Influence
Consistency allows us to not think about pros and cons. 56
Cialdini, Influence Magic and the brain at PBS Magic and the Brain
at PBS Module For example, epidemiologists estimate that it was not
until 1905 that you were better off going to a physician. (Ignaz
Semelweiss, noticed that doctors doubled the mortality rate of
mothers at delivery.) The role of the physician predated its
rational function for thousands of years, so why were there
physicians? Economists, forecasters, and professional portfolio
managers typically do no better than chance, yet command immense
salaries for their services. Food prices are driven up to
starvation levels in underdeveloped countries, based on climate
models that cannot successfully retrodict known climate history.
Liability lawyers win huge sums for plaintiffs who get diseases at
no higher rates than others not exposed to "the" supposed cause.
What is going on? The complexity and noise permeating any real
causal nexus generates a fog of uncertainty. Slight biases in
causal attribution or in blameworthiness (e.g., sins of commission
are worse than sins of omission) allow a stable niche for
extracting undeserved credit or targeting undeserved blame. If the
patient recovers, it was due to my heroic efforts; if not, the
underlying disease was too severe. From This Will Make You Smarter:
150 New Scientific Concepts to Improve Your Thinking, By John
Brockman Module One of the biggest challenges in education, for
example, get children to apply what they learn in school to
real-world situations. Perhaps the most dire consequence is that
human beings tend to be better at remembering evidence consistent
with their beliefs than evidence that contradicts those beliefs.
When two people disagree, it is often because their prior beliefs
lead them to remember (or focus on) different bits of evidence. To
consider something well, of course, is to evaluate both sides of an
argument, but unless we also go the extra mile of deliberately
forcing ourselves to consider alternatives which doesn't come
naturally we're more prone to recall evidence consistent with a
belief than inconsistent with it. Overcoming this mental weakness
(known as confirmation bias) is a lifelong struggle; recognizing
that we all suffer from it is an important first step. We can try
to work around it, compensating for our inborn tendencies toward
self-serving and biased recollection by disciplining ourselves to
consider not just the data that might fit with our own beliefs but
also the data that might lead other people to have beliefs
different from ours. From This Will Make You Smarter: 150 New
Scientific Concepts to Improve Your Thinking, By John Brockman
Module Belief Bias example God is love. Love is blind Ray Charles
is blind.
Ray Charles is God. Anonymous graffiti OBJECTIVE 8| Explain how our
preexisting beliefs can distort our logic. Module Fluency Effect If
the form of information is difficult to assimilate, that affects
our judgments about the substance of that information. one-page
description of an exercise routine instead of a recipe and similar
results: subjects rated the exercise as harder and said they were
less likely to try it when the instructions were printed in a font
that was hard to read. Psychologists call this the "fluency
effect." If the form of information is difficult to assimilate,
that affects our judgments about the substance of that information.
The science of the new unconscious is full of reports about
phenomena such as these, quirks in our judgment and perception of
people and events, artifacts that arise from the usually beneficial
ways in which our brains automatically process information. The
point is that we are not like computers that crunch data in a
relatively straightforward manner and calculate results. Instead,
our brains are made up of a collection of many modules that work in
parallel, with complex interactions, most of which operate outside
of our consciousness. As a consequence, the real reasons behind our
judgments, feelings, and behavior can surprise us. From Subliminal:
How your unconscious mind rules your behavior. Module Perils &
Powers of Intuition
Intuition may be perilous if unchecked, but may also be extremely
efficient and adaptive. Which is more populous San Diego or San
Antonio. 62% of Americans guessed right 100% of Germans (who had
never heard of San Antonio) guessed right Intuition adaptive, it
allows us to make quick decisions in areas in which we are experts,
chess, nursing, fire fighting for example Sway: The Irresistible
Pull of Irrational Behavior 53:50 Myers on intuition Power and
Perils of intuition link Irrational behavior link Myers on
Intuition Module Predictably Irrational
The power of FREE! Truffle at 15 cents Kiss at 1 cent, 73% chose
truffle 27% chose kiss Truffle at 14 cents Kiss at free 31% chose
truffle 69% chose kiss The price difference in both cases is the
same 14 cents Sofree can make you miss something (Note a Lindt
truffle wholesales for about 30 cents.) So what happened when the
"customers" flocked to our table? When we set the price of a Lindt
truffle at 15 cents and a Kiss at one cent, we were not surprised
to find that our customers acted with a good deal of rationality:
they compared the price and quality of the Kiss with the price and
quality of the truffle, and then made their choice. About 73
percent of them chose the truffle and 27 percent chose a Kiss. Now
we decided to see how FREE! might change the situation. So we
offered the Lindt truffle for 14 cents and the Kisses free. Would
there be a difference? Should there be? After all, we had merely
lowered the price of both kinds of chocolate by one cent. But what
a difference FREE! made. The humble Hershey's Kiss became a big
favorite. Some 69 percent of our customers (up from 27 percent
before) chose the FREE! Kiss, giving up the opportunity to get the
Lindt truffle for a very good price. Meanwhile, the Lindt truffle
took a tumble; customers choosing it decreased from 73 to 31
percent. What was going on here? First of all, let me say that
there are many times when getting FREE! items can make perfect
sense. If you find a bin of free athletic socks at a department
store, for instance, there's no downside to grabbing all the socks
you can. The critical issue arises when FREE! becomes a struggle
between a free item and another item a struggle in which the
presence of free! leads us to make a bad decision. For instance,
imagine going to a sports store to buy a pair of white socks, the
kind with a nicely padded heel and a gold toe. Fifteen minutes
later you're leaving the store, not with the socks you came in for
but with a cheaper pair that you don't like at all. The cost of
zero cost Module From Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely
To replicate this experience in out chocolate experiment, we told
our customers that they could choose only a single sweet the Kiss
or the truffle. It was an either-or decision, like choosing one
kind of athletic sock over another. That's what made the customers1
reaction to the FREE! Kiss so dramatic: Both chocolates were
discounted by the same amount of money. The relative price
difference between the two was unchanged and so was the expected
pleasure from both. According to standard economic theory (simple
cost-benefit analysis), then, the price reduction should not lead
to any change in the behavior of our customers. Before, about 27
percent chose the Kiss and 73 percent chose the truffle. And since
nothing had changed in relative terms, the response to the price
reduction should have been exactly the same. A passing economist,
twirling his cane and espousing conventional economic theory, in
fact, would have said that since everything in the situation was
the same, our customers should have chosen the truffles by the same
margin of preference. And yet here we were, with people pressing up
to the table to grab our Hershey's Kisses, not because they had
made a reasoned cost-benefit analysis before elbowing their way in,
but simply because the Kisses were free! How strange (but
Predictable) we humans are! From Predictably Irrational by Dan
Ariely Module From Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely
Indeed, the draw of zero cost is not limited to monetary
transactions. Whether it's products or money, we just cant resist
the gravitational pull of FREE! So do you think you have a handle
on free!? OK. Here's a quiz. Suppose I offered you a choice between
a free $10 Amazon gift certificate and a $20 gift certificate for
seven dollars. Think quickly. Which would you take? If you jumped
for the FREE! certificate, you would have been like most of the
people we tested at one of the malls in Boston. But look again: a
$20 gift certificate for seven dollars delivers a $13 profit.
That's clearly better than getting a $10 certificate free (earning
$10). Can you see the irrational behavior in action ? The concept
of zero also applies to time. Time spent on one activity, after
all, is time taken away from another. So if we spend 45 minutes in
a line waiting for our turn to get a free! taste of ice cream, or
if we spend half an hour filling out a long form for a tiny rebate,
there is something else that we are not doing with our time. My
favorite personal example is free-entrance day at a museum. Despite
the fact that most museums are not very expensive, I find it much
more appealing to satisfy my desire for art when the price is zero.
Of course I am not alone in this desire. So on these days I usually
find that the museum is overcrowded, the line is long, it is hard
to see anything, and fighting the crowds around the museum and in
the cafeteria is unpleasant. Do I realize that it is a mistake to
go to a museum when it is free? You bet I do but I go nevertheless.
From Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely Module EXPLORING
PSYCHOLOGY (7th Edition in Modules) David Myers
Robert Cialdini illustrates the principle for sales. Assume that a
man wants to buy a three-piece suit and a sweater. If you were the
salesperson, which should you show him first in order to get him to
spend the most money? You might think it best to sell the sweater
first. Having spent a lot on a suit, the customer might be
reluctant to spend more on a sweater. However, sales motivation
analysts suggest the opposite. Sell the suit first because the
additional cost of the sweater will not be so readily noticed. If
the man has just paid $500 for a suit, an additional $75 for a
sweater will not seem excessive. The same applies to other
accessories, such as a shirt or shoes. As a rule, people will
almost always pay more for accessories if they buy them after
rather than before a more expensive purchase. The same principle
holds for the purchase of accessories on a new car. After paying
$32,000 for the car, the customer will hardly notice $700 for a
sound system to go with it. The trick, of course, is to mention
these accessories independently so that each addition will seem
negligible in comparison to the much larger commitment already
made. Cialdini, R. B. (2001). Influence: Science and practice (4th
ed.). Boston: Allyn & Bacon. PowerPoint Slides Aneeq Ahmad
Henderson State University Worth Publishers, 2008 Module Impact of
Belief Bias in a Syllogism
Premise #1 Some professors wear ties. Premise #2 Some men wear
ties. Conclusion Some professors are men. Does this follow
logically? Premise #1 Some scarecrows wear ties. Premise #2 Some
professors wear ties. Conclusion Therefore, some scarecrows are
professors??? Return Module Figure 8.9: Two Versions of the Same
Premise
Module Thinking Strategies: Informal Reasoning
Also known as inductive reasoning Role of heuristics Potentially
problematic heuristics Anchoring heuristic Basing judgments on
existing info early info has more impact Representativeness
heuristic Judging whether something belongs to a class based on its
similarity to other members of the class Availability heuristic
Basing judgments on information most easily brought to mind Module
Biases and Flaws in Decision Making
Loss Aversion Biases in Perceptions of Probability Overestimate
probability of unlikely events Underestimate probability of likely
events Gamblers fallacy Unrealistic Confidence in Accuracy of
Predictions Module Types of Concepts Simple concepts have a single
common feature
Cognition, Language, and Intelligence Types of Concepts Simple
concepts have a single common feature Complex concepts Conjunctive:
simultaneous presence of 2 or more common characteristics
Disjunctive: presence of one common characteristic or another, or
both apple Red t-shirt ball aunt moms sister female Schizophrenic
person hears having voices distorted not there beliefs
Superordinate concept
Cognition, Language, and Intelligence Basic Concepts Station wagon
Basic concepts Vehicles Planes Propeller plane Cars Luxury sedan
Sportscar Boats Glider Jet plane Kayak Sailboat Motorboat
Subordinate concepts Superordinate concept Creative Problem
Solving
Cognition, Language, and Intelligence Creative Problem Solving
Creativity ability to act or think in novel and ways that are
valued by others Convergent thinking Logical, factual,
conventional, focused thinking Divergent thinking Unconventional,
loosely organized and directed Breaks out of mental sets more
easily Which two belong together?
Cognition, Language, and Intelligence Chinese thinking
(relationship) American thinking (category) Which two belong
together?
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