Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
The What, Where, and How of
Climate Change Information
Ana BucherClimate Change Team
Environment Department
Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction
Overview
Climate Change and Disaster
Risk Reduction Information Needs
Requirements for informed
decisions
Tools for Adaptation and DRR
Additional Resources
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
It changes the magnitude and frequency of extreme events (coping and response mechanisms and economic planning for disasters based on past vulnerabilities may no longer suffice).
It changes average climatic conditions and climate variability, affecting underlying risk factors
it generates new threats, which a region may have no experience in dealing with.
How does Adaptation to CC and DRR relate?
Tearfund, 2008LINKING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
How does Climate Change (CC) affects Disaster Risk Management (DRR)?
Build resilience
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
Climate Risk Information NeedsEstimates impacts and adaptation actions at
different levels. Adapt to WHAT? WHEN to adapt? HOW much?
Measure effectiveness of adaptation actions in the long term under new extreme events.
Importance of data collection, analysis and improvement of climate science.
100-year flood frequency 2020
Lenher et al 2006 Climatic Change
Requirements to make Informed Decisions under climate change
1. What is expected to change in terms of Temperature and Precipitation? Historical and current variability. What are the observed trends?
2. Do we know where do we act? Evaluation of geographic extent and spatial resolution.
3. When do we act, now or later? Temporal resolution for planned activities.
4. Assessment of uncertainty and confidence in climate change projections. Adequate guidance for interpretation and application of robust actions
Climate Information AnalysesQualitative Data
(credible, reflects climate processes)
Information(measures of vulnerability and risk)
Knowledge(assessing option, understand consequences)
Action(risk management framework)
Action(Risk management framework)
•Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and local priority.
•Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning.
•Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels.
•Reduce the underlying risk factors (i.e natural resource management, socio-economic development, construction)
•Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels.
Attributes of decision making in a changing climate
Responsive
Flexible Proactive
Durable
Robust
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
Robust decision-making under uncertainty
UK ClimateImpactsProgramme
Bring together adaptation to CC and risk management
Understand vulnerabilities, sensitivities and thresholds
Mainstream future climate risks within existing risk management processes:• strategic • operational • major projects
Source: Willows and Connell, 2003
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
1. What aspects of climate are you vulnerable to?
2. What data do you have or need to characterize current risks?
3. To what extent can you characterize future location and intensity of these risks?
What are your real information needs to fulfill your project objectives?
Climate Change DataWhat?Collaborative, on-line, knowledge portal with a suite of climate and climate related data and tools to support climate resilience measures at different levels and for specific user needs and contexts
Why?To facilitate access of consistent and easily accessible datasets and resources across the WB.
Access
Interpret
Use
Learn
Access
Learn
Access and Interpret
Climate Models
Historical Trends
Disasters
Impacts
Use
HOW can you use the WB CC Portal?
Location of project portfolio
Projected agriculture crop yields
Ensemble of climate models
EXAMPLES OF INTEGRATION/ANALYSIS FOR COMMUNICATION AND KNOWLEDGE SHARING
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
Coming soon!CC and DRR Country adaptation profiles
An operational tool for practitioners for climate and climate related information, to be later expanded with sector-specific climate risk guidance.
At a glance
<Contents here to be determined>
Xxx 67%
Xxx 67%
Xxx 67%
Xxx 67%
Dashboard Climate Baseline Climate Future Disasters
Key Sectors
Agriculture/Food Security
Coastal Zones/Marine Ecosys
Water Resources
Disasters
Biodiversity
Disasters
Mozambique DashboardWelcome
Print | Help | Explore
The context section will provide an overview of key DRR issues and climate dynamics of the country. This will include:• A disaster risk profile outlining the historical occurrence of major disasters over time, along with their impacts and existing disaster hotspots, • A general description of current climate variability and other stressors that characterize local impact and vulnerability to climate change, • A summary of National Priorities and Adaptation strategies. • A summary of the latest available socio-economic and vulnerability indicators including those available from the World Bank data portal
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Learn more...
Selected Indicators
MDG Indicators
Healthy Nutrition and Population
Climate Analysis Indicators (WRI)
Overview
The government of Mozambique recognizes that the country is vulnerable to catastrophes and that the hazards resulting from climate change are some of the factors that aggravate the situation of absolute poverty in Mozambique. With those challenges in mind, the government has developed the following priority objectives: Reduce the number of human victims and the loss of properties; Promote a culture of prevention; and; Provide the country with the means for prevention and mitigation. Mozambique is placing special emphasis on the prevention of natural disasters and improving early warning systems. Adaptation measures are being implemented in the agricultural, fisheries, energy, environmental and water sectors, with particular attention being paid to the coastal zones and erosion control.
Climate Baseline
Vulnerability Indicators
Jan
Feb
Mar
ch Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oc
Nov
Dec Ja
n
05
101520253035
0
50
100
150
200
250
Drought15%
Flood38%
Mass movement wet1%
Storm42%
Wildfire3%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2223242526272829
% of Population with Access to Improved Sanitation
MozambiqueSub-Saharan Africa
Adaptation
Aggregate Governance Indicators 1996-2008
Climate Baseline Climate Future Disasters Climate Future II Adaptation
More
Adaptation Options by Sector
Priority Adaptation Projects
Strengthening Early Warning Systems
Increasing private sector resilience to climate change
Development of alternative water sources for the southern region
Current Adaptation Activities
Mozambique DashboardAdaptation
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More
Adaptation Targets?
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xxxx
xxxx
xxxx
xxxx
SECTORS ADAPTATION OPTIONS
Agriculture/Food Security Switch to different cultivars Improve and conserve soils Agricultural research and transfer of technology Establish seed banks
Coastal Zones and Marine Ecosystems Develop Integrated Coastal Zone Management Develop planning/new investment requirements Research/monitor the coastal ecosystem
Water Resources Increase water supply, e.g. by using groundwater, building
reservoirs, improving or stabilizing watershed management, desalination
Improve or develop water management
Land ResourcesDisastersBiodiversity
At a glance
<Content to be determined>
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
Xxx
This section will provide a list of practical examples of adaptation and disaster risk reduction in areas with similar disaster profiles. This will also outline, where available, the GFDRR Country Programming Framework – as well as any activities under the Hyogo Framework of Action. A list of key local institutions and information about their priority areas of focus as well as their active projects will also be provided (where available)
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Dashboard Climate Baseline Climate Future Disasters Climate Future II Adaptation
Key Institutions
Studies
• INGC Phase II• Africa ADAPT
Vulnerability Reduction
• Living with drought -Chicualacuala UNDP project• PPCR – World Bank
Zambezi Basin Initiative
Disaster Preparedness
More Projects.
Name Area of Work ProjectsGovernmental
INGC National Disaster Management Institute Phase I and Phase II study, 4 pilot projects on vulnerability reduction
MICOA Ministry of the Environment Coastal Zone management
SETSANSETSAN is responsible for implementing Mozambique’s Food Security and Nutrition Strategy (ESAN) and has requested FAO’s assistance for choosing indicators to help monitor progress made in reducing hunger and malnutrition.
Throughout 2005, SETSAN developed and launched a successful decentralization plan, in accordance with the Government of Mozambique’s decentralization policy
InternationalIFRC Disaster response
USAIDUSAID Programmes in Mozambique focus on the following sectors: Agriculture, Health, HIV/AIDS, and Education Zambezi Basin Initiative
Community Based Early Warning System at the Búzi River in Central Mozambique (SIDPABB)
…..
More
Vulnerability MatrixCountry/
RegionSector Hazards Impacts Vulnerabili
ty/ ExposureAdaptive capacity
Adaptation Options
Tajikistan EnergyRising
temperatures in summer
Increased demand for space cooling high Improve energy
efficiency in buildings
Decreased precipitation in
summer
Effects hydropower generation (90 % of installed capacity is hydro), BUT if these are runoff river the impact is high.
highImprove water resources management
Agriculture
Droughts (reduced summer
precipitation and increased
temperature)
Loss of crops productionReduction in livestockThreats to food security
high
Improved irrigation Introduction of modern irrigation techniques (drip irrigation, sprinkling)
Water
Increased precipitation in winter (floods)
Decreased precipitation in
summer
Loss of arable lands;Loss of crops production
high Improved flood control
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Reduction
Red Cross/Red Crescentwww.climatecentre.org
PreventionNethttp://www.preventionweb.net/
UN International Strategy for Disaster Reductionwww.unisdr.org
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010
Thanks!
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