8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
1/43
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
2/43
Outline of Talk
1. What is personal science?
2. Stagnation in health care
3. Three flavors of personal science4. Advantages of personal science
5. Why we need both conventional science &personal science
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
3/43
Personal Science = usingscience to solve your ownproblems
(science = gather data, drawconclusions)
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
4/43
Old idea
data + conclusions = magic
New idea
data + conclusions + personalinvolvement = even more magic
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
5/43
Examples of Personal Science
DATA SOURCE
WHEN Other People Yourself
old Ask friend howwell diet worked Try diet, weighyourself
recent Read researcharticles
Try various foods,measure blood
sugar
new Search Internet forrelated stories
Try differentexercises, measuresleep
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
6/43
Personal Science
Increasingly PowerfulGaining on conventional science? Non-scientists have more access to scientificjournals
Internet forums, discussion groups, etc.
More possible treatments (e.g. foods) available
Better cheaper software & computers
Better cheaper measurement devices
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
7/43
Low-carb diet = lots of meat, dairy (Atkins diet)Shangri-La Diet = drink 3.5 T/day flaxseed oil
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
8/43
What do we learn from this data?
Main conclusions
Low-carb diet works (old idea)
but after 1 yr regain begins (new idea)
Extreme exercise works (old idea)
lost weight takes years to regain after exercisestops (new idea)
Shangri-La Diet works well (new idea) by comparison with other methods (new idea)
Conventional research has never generatedsuch long detailed data
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
9/43
Restless Legs Syndrome (RLS)
Legs itch or tingle. Extremely annoying. Feelbetter when moved.
Common. 11% of Italians 50-89 years old.
Dennis Mangan, California lab tech. Mom haslife-long RLS. Getting worse.
Finds story on website about RLS cured by
high-dose niacin Mom tries high-dose niacin. RLS disappears.
New idea about RLS. Not mentioned by
authoritative websites (e.g., Mayo Clinic).
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
10/43
Shared Features ofExamples
Person. Not professional scientist or doctor.Cares a lot.
Method. Try new things he's read about.
Solution. Powerful, safe, nearly free. Missed bymainstream research.
Contribution to human welfare. Can help
millions of people.
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
11/43
Stagnation in Health Care
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
12/43
Stagnation in Health Care
Recently looked up in Google Trends
health care costs: many searches
health care spending: many searches
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
13/43
Stagnation in Health Care
Recently looked up in Google Trends
health care costs: many searches
health care spending: many searches
health care innovation: "not enough search volumeto show graphs"
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
14/43
Stagnation in Health Care
Recently looked up in Google Trends
health care costs: many searches
health care spending: many searches
health care innovation: "not enough search volumeto show graphs"
health care stagnation:"not enough search volumeto show graphs"
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
15/43
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
16/43
Stagnation in Health Care
Recently looked up in Google Trends:
health care costs: many searches
health care spending: many searches
health care innovation: "not enough search volumeto show graphs"
health care stagnation:"not enough search volumeto show graphs"
Relative number of searches:health care costs= 1, health care spending= 0.05, health careinnovation = 0, health care stagnation = 0.
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
17/43
Stagnation in Health Care
Visible problem: High &increasing cost
Invisible problem:Lack ofinnovation
Three signs of stagnation...
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
18/43
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
19/43
Sign No. 2 of StagnationMain Sources of Death/Disability
Heart disease
Cancer
Depression
Arthritis
Stroke
Diabetes
Obesity
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
20/43
Sign No. 2 of Stagnation:
Nobel Prize IrrelevanceYEAR PRIZE-WINNING WORK2010 in-vitro fertilization
2009 telomeres
2008 cervical cancer virus, HIV virus
2007 gene modification via stem cells
2006 RNA interference
2005 ulcer-causing bacteria
2004 odor receptors
2003 magnetic resonance imaging
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
21/43
Sign No. 3 of Stagnation:Old Treatments
Obesity. Mainstream treatments:
Eat less, move more. Common since at least1950s.
Low-fat diet. Introduced 1960s, mass popularitybegan 1980s.
Low-carb diet. Banting diet published 1864.
Depression. Mainstream treatments:
Antidepressants. The first SSRI (Prozac)introduced 1986.
Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Introduced
1960s.
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
22/43
Why Stagnation? A TheoryTwo Supply Chains
CinnamonFarmer in Sri Lanka ($2/kg)
many people Cook in London ($40/kg)
Health Care
Scientist (price?) many people Sick person (price?)
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
23/43
Health Care Middlemen
doctors
nurses
psychotherapists
physical therapists
alternative-medicinepractitioners
pharmacists
hospital employees
drug companies
medical devicecompanies
supplementmanufacturers
insurance companies
governmentregulators
medical-schoolprofessors
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
24/43
Health Care Middlemen
Like everyone else . . .
want more income
strongly oppose less incomeAgainst innovation that reduces their
income. Favor small changes that
increase income. Pressure to oversellsmall changes.
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
25/43
Two Effects of Middlemen
1. Visible: Push price up.
2. Invisible: Push innovation down
especially innovations that don'tinvolve them. I.e., cause stagnation.
The stronger the middlemen, the larger
these effects. US has both high price& stagnation. Conclusion: Health carestagnation due, at least partly, to
powerful middlemen.
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
26/43
Three Flavors of Personal Science
1. Engineering (= new devices, new uses ofbasic science). Home glucose monitoring.
2. Scholarship (= study of existing knowledge).
Rediscovery of ketogenic diet for childhoodepilepsy.
3. Basic Science (= discovery of new cause-
effect relationships). My work on weight, sleep,mood, & brain function.
Will stress why personal scientists made thesediscoveries
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
27/43
Engineering: Home GlucoseMonitoring
Richard Bernstein, engineer with poorly-controlled diabetes
1969: gets machine that only needs one drop of
blood. Intended for hospital emergency rooms.
By trial and error, figured out how to normalizehis blood glucose levels. Health greatly
improved. Med school prof heard him talk about his
results. 1980's: Study with other diabetics.
Became widely accepted. Used by millions.
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
28/43
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
29/43
Scholarship: Ketogenic Diet forChildhood Epilepsy
Ketogenic diet = high-fat diet.
Developed in 1920s. Stopped being usedduring 1940s when anti-seizure drugs were
developed. Became unknown by most doctors.
Rediscovered in 1990s by Jim Abrahams, amovie producer, whose son's epilepsy notcontrolled by any drug.
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
30/43
Scholarship: Ketogenic Diet forChildhood Epilepsy
Not easy. But very often effective. Much betterthan surgery.
WHY PERSONAL SCIENCE?
Doctors aren't scholars.
No connection with value system of medicalschool professors.
Payoff for this sort of discovery much larger forparent than any professional.
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
31/43
Basic Science: The Shangri-La Diet
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
32/43
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
33/43
Basic Science: The Shangri-La Diet
Solution had three elements: 1. Knowledge ofbasic science. 2. Trial and error. 3. Accident.
WHY PERSONAL SCIENCE?
Weight-control researchers don't know relevantbasic science (which came from animal learningresearch).
Trial and error unrewarded. Accident required personal involvement
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
34/43
Basic Science: Better Mood
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
35/43
Basic Science: Better Mood
Discovery had several elements: 1. Interest inStone-Age approach to health problems. 2.Accident. 3. Trial and error to increase effect.
WHY PERSONAL SCIENCE?
Mood researchers don't study own mood
Don't do risky research
Far from beaten track sounds "crazy"
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
36/43
Basic Science: Better Sleep
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
37/43
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
38/43
Basic Science: Butter & Arithmetic
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
39/43
Basic Science: Butter & Arithmetic
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
40/43
Basic Science: Butter & Arithmetic
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
41/43
Basic Science: Butter and Arithmetic
Elements of discovery: 1. Shangri-La Diet. 2.Experimental-psychology background. 3. Threeaccidents.
WHY PERSONAL SCIENCE?
Nutrition researchers don't study themselves
don't study mental performance
brainwashed by anti-fat dogma
Psychology professors don't study nutrition
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
42/43
8/6/2019 The Value of Personal Science by Seth Roberts
43/43
Top Related