The State of The Industry
International Alert Users
Association Conference
November 13 & 14, 2014
Tom Ross, Chairman/CEO
IHS Global Insights
• Largest forecasting company in the world
• Study sponsored/paid for by American Rental
Association
• Forecasts through 2018
• Data available online, quarterly, last update
10/28/2014
• Local data: 363 metro areas
• Only $100 for National Report +$100 for all
the metro areas in the 1st state.
Forecasting Accuracy:
Total Rental Revenue
2010
Forecast
2014
Forecast
%
Difference
2010
27,049
2011
27,925
2012
30,865
2013
34,861
2014
38,728
Forecasting Accuracy:
Total Rental Revenue
2010
Forecast
2014
Forecast
%
Difference
2010
27,049
26,800
0.9%
2011
27,925
28,700
2.8%
2012
30,865
31,300
1.4%
2013
34,861
33,300
4.5%
2014
38,728
36,100
6.8%
General Economic
Conditions
• Gross Domestic Product
• Consumer Spending
• Unemployment
• Construction
• Spending on Recreational
Services
• Economic Profits
Gross Domestic Product:
+2.7% next year; +11.8% by 2018
Heavily Influenced by Weak
Consumer Spending
Slowly Declining Unemployment
4.2
5.8
9.2 9.5
8.9
8.1
7.4
6.2
5.7 5.5
5.3 5.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
% U
nem
plo
ym
en
t
Civilian Unemployment
Residential Construction:
+14.5% Next year; +28.4% by 2018
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
Real Residential Construction (Billions 2005 US$
Non-Residential Construction:
+2.1% in 2015; +11.7% by 2018
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
Real Non-Residential Construction (Billions 2005 US
Total Construction:
+6.8% in 2015; +18.0% by 2018
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
Total Real Construction Revenue ( Billions 2005 US
Residential Construction Non-Residential Construction
Recreational Spending up Only 1.6%
Next Year, then up 23.0% by 2018
4.0 4.5
4.2
1.7 1.6
5.1
7.5 7.3
2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
Consumer Expenditures on Recreational Services (US$ Billions)
Improving Profits
4
11.4
4.2
0.2
7.2
2.9
-1.4
0.3
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
Economic Profits (% Change)
Improving Profits
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
Economic Profits (Billions of US $)
Rental Revenue
• Construction & Industrial
Equipment
• General Tool
• Party & Event
• Total Rental Revenues
Construction & Industrial Equipment
Rental Revenue :
+9.8% in 2015; + 42.6% by 2018
Construction & Industrial Equipment
Rental Revenue:
Fully recovered by 2015
General Tool Rental Revenue:
+9.0% in 2015; +44.7% by 2018
General Tool Rental Revenue:
Also Fully Recovered by 2015
Party Rental Revenue:
+3.9% in 2015; +13.3% by 2018
Party Rental Revenue.
Only One Bad Year.
Fully Recovered by 2011
Total Rental Revenue
Total Rental Revenue:
+9.2% in 2015; +39.5% by 2018
6.8
9.2
6.4
7.3
9.2
7.7
8.5
9.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
Total Rental Revenue (% Change)
Total Rental Revenue:
Fully Recovered by 2015
Overall Outlook:
Very Positive
• Rental revenues fully recover by 2015 – Up 9.2% next year
– Hit new highs in 2016-18
• Driven by resurgence in residential housing
• Plus increasing rental penetration of total equipment capital
• Parties are a part of our culture
Thank you.
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