THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
April 2009
2
Presentation Outline
1 Update of the Global Credit Crisis on Indonesia’s Economy
2 Effective Policy Responses in 2008 and Proactive Measures for 2009
4 Fiscal Stimulus and Budget Financing
5 Conclusion
3 Indonesian Q1 2009 Profile: Budget and BOP
Update of the Global Credit Crisis on Indonesia’s Economy
4
Impact of the Global Credit Crisis on Asian Economies and Indonesia’s Macroeconomic Environment
Equity and currency markets have stabilized
Bank Indonesia has more room to cut policy rate due to fall of headline inflation
Sufficient foreign reserves (USD bn) despite global crisis
Source: Ministry of Finance, Bank Indonesia, Bloomberg
MarMar
Source: Ministry of Finance, Bank Indonesia, Bloomberg
Depreciation of Stock Indices & Exchange Rates
-44.69%
-45.57%
-42.31%
-32.55%
-27.90%
-46.35%
-29.26%
-39.16%
19.66%
5.07%
16.75%
9.66%
42.45%
27.62%
26.90%
14.27%
Thailand
Singapore
Philipines
Malaysia
S Korea
India
Brazil
Indonesia
Stock Index Exchange Rate
Comparison between January 2nd to April 20th 2009
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
16.0%
20.0%
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
USD Fed Funds Rate Bank Indonesia Rate Indonesia Inflation Rate
Mar 09Mar 09
5
Credit Growth Decelerated, But Remains Resilient
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2007 - Jan May Sep 2008 - Jan May Sep Jan-09
Total bank credit growth Y/Y
Source: Bank Indonesia
Bank credit growth falling but remains at double-digit level Banks’ loan-to-deposit ratio stabilizing
Non-performing loans ratio remains low
6
Credit Contraction Resulting in Higher Financing Cost
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
1-Jan-08 1-Apr-08 1-Jul-08 1-Oct-08 1-Jan-09 1-Apr-09
Yie
ld
ROI 6.75% '14 ROP '14 Vietnam '16 UST 5 Yr
1-Jan-08 31-Dec-08 31-Mar-09
ROI-14 6.00% 8.73% 8.78%
ROP-19 5.76% 7.13% 5.16%
VIETNAM-16 5.91% 10.45% 8.27%
UST 5-Yr 3.44% 1.55% 1.66%
Bond yields have risen considerably amidst heightened risk aversion in global capital markets
Source: Bloomberg
7
International Bonds Historical Yield
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
INDO-14 INDO-18 Spread INDO-14 vs UST- 5y - RHS Spread INDO-18 vs UST- 10y - RHS
Source: Bloomberg
Indonesia International Bonds Historical Yield Curve
8
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Jan-2008 Mar-2008 Jun-2008 Sep-2008 Dec-2008 Mar-2009
Reb
ased
to
100
%
WTI Copper Nickel
Slowdown in Real Sector Growth has been Gradual
… The Trade Surplus Remains Stable
Despite the Decline in Raw Material and Commodity Prices…
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Bloomberg
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-2008 Mar-2008 Jun-2008 Sep-2008 Dec-2008 Mar-2009
Reb
ased
to 1
00%
Palm Oil Cotton Rubber
4
6
8
10
12
14
US
D b
illio
n
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
( Export)LHS ( Import)LHS ( Export Growth)RHS ( Import Growth)RHS
9
6.0%6.6% 6.6%
5.9%6.3% 6.4% 6.4%
5.2%4.5%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1
Slower Economic Growth Forecasted for 2009
Breakdown of GDP Growth
Quarterly GDP Growth
Source: Ministry of Finance, Central Bureau of Statistics* 2009 GDP based on Adjusted National Budget
5.1%5.7% 5.5%
6.3% 6.1%4% - 4.5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009*0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%
GDP Growth Household Consumption Exports Investment
Effective Policy Responses in 2008 andProactive Measures for 2009
11
Steps Taken in Financial Markets and Forex Market
Supporting the Banking and
Capital Market Systems
Place government funds with state-owned banks to increase liquidity in the banking system
Increase the amount of deposits guaranteed by the government
Stronger coordination between the central bank and government in monitoring, supervising, regulating and policy implementations on banks and capital markets
Prepare crisis protocol (implementation of the Financial System Stability Committee)
Manage state-owned enterprises’ currency transactions to reduce currency volatility
Maintain a sufficient level of foreign exchange reserves through trade financing facilities and prevention of illegal imports
Requiring greater disclosure on large-sized purchases of foreign currency against IDR to curb speculative pressure on IDR
Double Bilateral Swap Facilities with Japan (US$12 bn) and signing bilateral swap facility with China in Local Currency equivalent to US$ 15 bn
Ensuring Foreign Exchange Stability
Balance Of Payment and National Budget 2009
13
Current Account Balance
Perkiraan Realisasi Perkiraan
I. CURRENT ACCOUNT -273 -259 607
A. Goods, net 4,562 3,570 3,974
1. Non Oil & Gas, net 2,564 2,697 2,505
1.1. Exports, fob. 24,492 19,597 18,8541.2. Imports, fob. -21,927 -16,901 -16,349
2. Oil, net -861 -1,017 -314
2.1. Exports, fob. 2,018 1,620 1,8232.2. Imports, fob. -2,879 -2,637 -2,137
3. Gas, net 2,859 1,890 1,783
3.1. Exports, fob. 2,929 1,906 1,8753.2. Imports, fob. -70 -16 -92
B. Services, net -3,261 -2,509 -2,100
C. Income, net -2,892 -2,494 -2,394
D. Current transfers, net 1,317 1,174 1,127
* Provisional figures
** Very provisional figures
ITEMS2008*
Q.4
2009**Q.1
Current Account: Tracking Q1 I 2009 (USD million)
Prediction Prediction Realization
14
Capital Account Balance
Perkiraan Realisasi Perkiraan
II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT -3,702 -182 2,200
A. CAPITAL ACCOUNT 29 19 19
B. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT -3,731 -201 2,181
1. Direct investment 1,698 -608 1,9891.1 Abroad -1,217 -1,289 -8811.2 In Indonesia 2,915 681 2,870
2. Portfolio investment -4,377 2,532 2,3222.1 Assets -467 -234 1642.2 Liabilities -3,910 2,766 2,158
3. Other Investment -1,052 -2,126 -2,1303.1 Assets -3,720 -440 -1733.2 Liabilities 2,668 -1,685 -1,958
* Provisional figures
** Very provisional figures
ITEMS2008* 2009**
Q.1Q.4
Capital Account: Tracking Q12009 (USD million)
Prediction Prediction Realization
15
Portfolio Investment
Portofolio Investment by Foreigner: Tracking Q12009 (USD million)
2008**
Perkiraan Realisasi Perkiraan
PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT, LIABILITIES -3,910 2,766 2,158
A. Public Sector -2,892 2,742 2,8621. Global Bond 0 2,850 2,9202. Sukuk Valas¹⁾ 0 0 03. SUN Rupiah -1,626 -252 -8024. SBI -1,266 144 745
B. Private Sector -1,019 23 -7041. Saham -110 59 -4562. Debt securities -908 -35 -249
- Bankers Acceptance, net -809 5 -204a. Inflow 1,877 1,879 1,416b. Outflow -2,685 -1,873 -1,620
- Other securities, net -100 -41 -45a. Inflow 105 65 51b. Outflow -205 -105 -96
¹⁾ Nilai Sukuk Valas yang dibeli investor asing diasumsikan 95% dari total nilai emisi.* Provisional figures** Very provisional figures
Q1Q4
2008*ITEMS
2009**
1) Sukuk Valas : Global Islamic Bond (Asumed bought by Foreign Investor 95% from total Emision)* Provisional Figures** Very Provisional Figure
Prediction Prediction Realization
16
PerkiraanRealisasi Perkiraan
DI in Indonesia (FDI) 2,915 681 2,870
Migas, net 685 42 879- Inflow 1,980 1,078 1,603- Outflow -1,295 -1,036 -724
Non Migas, net 2,229 639 1,991- Inflow 4,589 1,656 4,138- Outflow -2,360 -1,017 -2,147
* Provisional figures
** Very provisional figures
2009**Q1
2008*I T E M S
Q.4
FDI Inflow
FDI inflow and outflow: Tracking Q1 I 2009 (USD juta)
PerkiraanRealisasi Perkiraan
DI in Indonesia (FDI) 2,915 681 2,870
Migas, net 685 42 879- Inflow 1,980 1,078 1,603- Outflow -1,295 -1,036 -724
Non Migas, net 2,229 639 1,991- Inflow 4,589 1,656 4,138- Outflow -2,360 -1,017 -2,147
* Provisional figures
** Very provisional figures
2009**Q1
2008*I T E M S
Q.4Prediction
Prediction Realization
PredictionPrediction Realization
17
Government Debt: Tracking QI 2009 (USD million)
Government Transaction
Perkiraan Realisasi Perkiraan
LOANS
Public Sector, net 1) 549 -431 -1701. Drawings 2,796 692 860
- Program loans 2,025 260 294- Contigency loans 0 0 0- Project loans 771 433 566- Other 0 0 0
2. Debt Repayments -2,247 -1,123 -1,031**Very provisional figures***Projections
2009**Q1ITEMS
2008*
Q4Prediction
Prediction Realization
18
Private Sector Transaction
Private Sector Debt: Tracking Q12009 (USD million)
Perkiraan Realisasi Perkiraan
LOANS
Private Sector, net 424 -1,510 -1971. Drawings 8,830 4,236 6,416
- Loans from affiliates, net 1) 2,312 854 2,467 - Loans from non affiliates, net 6,517 3,381 3,949
A. Banking sector 2,425 2,102 1,887- Loan 548 223 470- Bankers Acceptance 2) 1,877 1,879 1,416
B. Corporate sector 4,092 1,279 2,062- Loan 3,591 1,009 1,794- Trade credits 397 220 218- Debt securities 2) 105 50 50
2. Debt Repayments -8,405 -5,745 -6,613
- Loans from affiliates, net 1) -2,360 -1,017 -2,147 - Loans from non affiliates, net -6,045 -4,728 -4,466
A. Banking sector -3,046 -2,019 -1,867- Loan -361 -146 -247- Bankers Acceptance 2) -2,685 -1,873 -1,620
B. Corporate sector -2,999 -2,709 -2,599- Loan -2,360 -2,407 -2,213- Trade credits -434 -197 -291- Debt securities 2) -205 -105 -96
1) dicatat dalam NPI sebagai salah satu komponen Direct Investment in Indonesia2) dicatat dalam NPI sebagai salah satu komponen Portfolio Investment (liabilities)* Provisional figures** Very provisional figures
ITEMS2008*
Q4 Q.12009**
1) Noted in NPI as one of component in Direct Investment in Indonesia2) Noted in NPI as one of component in Portfolio Investment in (liabilities)* Provisional Figures** Very Provisional Figure
Prediction Prediction Realization
19
Foreign Reserve
36.0
3
33.8
7
30.3
2
34.7
2
40.0
8
40.1
1
42.3
5
42.5
9
47.2
2
50.9
2
52.8
8
56.9
2
58.9
9
59.4
5
57.1
1
51.6
4
54.8
4
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar
-05
Jun-
05
Sep-
05
Dec
-05
Mar
-06
Jun-
06
Sep-
06
Dec
-06
Mar
-07
Jun-
07
Sep-
07
Dec
-07
Mar
-08
Jun-
08
Sep-
08
Dec
-08
Mar
-09
CadevBulan Impor dan Pemb. ULN Pem. - rhs
Miliar USD Bulan
Right Scale is for the MontsFor Import and Foreign Bond Payment
Right Scale is for the MontsFor Import and Foreign Bond Payment
Foreign Reserve
Foreign Reserve
MonthsMonths
USD BillionUSD Billion
*On April 2009 there is additional reserve from Global SUKUK : USD 650 Million
20
A. REVENUE 985.7 848.6 162.6 19.2
I. REVENUE 984.8 847.6 162.6 19.2
1. TAXATION 725.8 661.8 133.2 20.1
TAXES 647.9 587.8 113.8 19.4
DUTIES AND EXCISE 78.0 73.9 19.4 26.3
2. NON-TAX 258.9 185.9 29.4 15.8
II. GRANT 0.9 0.9 0.0 4.3
B. EXPENDITURE 1,037.1 988.1 159.7 16.2
I. CENTRAL GOVERNMENT 0.7 685.0 88.8 13.0
A. MINISTRIES 322.3 333.7 * 30.1 9.0
B. NON-MINISTRIES (SUBSIDIES, INTERST) 394.1 351.4 58.7 16.7
II. TRANSFER TO REGION 320.7 303.1 71.0 23.4
C. PRIMARY BALANCE 50.3 (28.9) 26.7 (92.6)
D. BUDGET DEFICIT (51.3) (139.5) 2.9 (2.1)
% TO GDP (1.0) (2.5) 0.0
E. FINANCING 51.3 139.5 54.1 38.8
I. DOMESTIC FINANCING 60.8 109.5 54.5 49.8
II. FOREIGN FINANCING (9.4) (14.5) (0.4) 2.7
III. ADDITIONAL FINANCING/DEBT 0.0 44.5 0.0 0.0
CASH SURPLUS 0.0 0.0 57.0
Orig. Budget Budget+ Stimulus
Real. Up to 31 Mar 2009
% Real.
National Budget 2009 Realization (in Trillion Rupiah)
21
Tax Collection by 31 Mar 2009 below 2009 target
22
4.0
8.3
0.2
4.5
0.5 0.1
2.2
5.8
0.3
3.9
0.3 0.20.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Pertambangan Ind.Pengolahan Konstruksi Perdgan,htl&restorn Pengangktn&Kom. Keu,Real&jasa persh.
Triliun Rp PPN Impor sektoral s.d Maret
s.d Mar 2008 s.d Mar 2009
3.6
8.1
16.7
6.9 6.3
19.3
2.3
7.3
13.0
6.64.3
18.3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Pertanian Pertambangan Ind.Pengolahan Perdgan,htl&restorn Pengangktn&Kom. Keu,Real&jasa persh.
Triliun Rp PPh Nonmigas Sektoral s.d Maret
s.d Mar 2008 s.d Mar 2009
4.0
9.5
2.6
5.0
2.2 2.4
4.3
9.5
2.7
5.6
2.1 2.6
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Pertambangan Ind.Pengolahan Konstruksi Perdgan,htl&restorn Pengangktn&Kom. Keu,Real&jasa persh.
Triliun Rp PPN DN sektoral s.d Maret
s.d Mar 2008 s.d Mar 2009
Agriculture Mining ManufacturingTransportation & CommunicationTrade & services Finance
Finance
Finance
Transportation & Communication
Transportation & CommunicationTrade & services
Trade & servicesConstruction
Construction
Manufacturing
ManufacturingMining
Mining
Non-oil corporate Income Tax
Import VAT
Domestic VAT
Tax Collection by Sector (ISIC-2) by March 2009
23
1,8
4,7
9,3
2,1
5,8
9,9
1,9
5,5
10,9 11,3
-
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
Januari Pebruari Maret
% th
d A
PB
N
%_2007
%_2008
11.2
4.5
7.111.8
5.910.9
17.9
6.3
12.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
Januari Pebruari Maret
Triliu
n R
p
2007 2008 2009
% Min Spending% Min Spending
2009 Stimulus
2009 non stimulus
Min Spending per March 2009 = Rp36,4 T, faster than 2008 = Rp28,7 T
Total Min SpendingTotal Min Spending
20072008
Ministries Expenditure by March 2009 = 10.9% (March 2008 = 9/9%)
24
R e a l i s a s i P e n a r i k a n P i n j a m a n L N ( b r u t o ) t a h u n 2 0 0 8 d a n 2 0 0 9
- - - - -
3 . 2
5 . 0
1 . 1
1 . 9
0 . 9
8 . 2
0 . 50 . 1 1 . 1
1 . 90 . 90 . 1
0 . 5
-
1 . 0
2 . 0
3 . 0
4 . 0
5 . 0
6 . 0
7 . 0
8 . 0
9 . 0
Tr
ili
un
Rp
P i n j a m a n p r o g r a m P i n j a m a n p r o y e k
JanJan
FebFeb
MarMar
SBN Neto
15.410.0
13.517.1
8.1
31.4
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.0
Jan Feb MarRealisasi 2008 Realisasi 2009
Cicilan Pokok Hutang
-3.7-3.5
-3.1 -3.1
-3.8-3.4-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
Jan Feb MarRealisasi 2008 Realisasi 2009
Financing by March 2009
0,10,81,1
1,9
Program Loan Project Loan
Realization on Foreign Loan in 2008 and 2009
Government Securities
Bond Payment
2008 Real. 2008 Real.2008 Real. 2008 Real.
Fiscal Stimulus and Budget Financing
26
Fiscal Stimulus package for 2009
• Infrastructure and national programs, including:
– Expansion of program for poverty alleviation
– Expansion of credit program for small businesses
– Reduction in tax rates for small businesses
– Provision of subsidies for employee tax payments
– Additional infrastructure projects
Accelerate job creation and
foster growth of small scale businesses
• Subsidies on medicine and cooking oil
• Direct subsidies (cash transfers - unconditional and conditional) for low-income households
• Direct and indirect subsidies for education and health sectors
• Tax rate reductions on individual household incomes
Boosting the household
purchasing power
• Import duty facility on selected capital goods and materials
• Trade finance facility
• Tax rate reductions on corporate income and listed companies, as well as higher minimum threshold for individual income tax
• Discounts on electricity peak-hour charges for industries and lower prices of diesel fuel
Stimulate trade and promote
entrepreneurship
1
2
3
27
Fiscal Stimulus 2009 in Indonesia amounted 1.4% of GDP
1. 2009 budget deficit increase from 1% of GDP to 2.5% of GDP due to projected drop in revenue collection and additional fiscal stimulus
2. This deficit will be financed by:
a. Rp 51,3 trn (USD 4.6 bn) from 2008 budget cash surplus
b. Rp. 44 trn (USD 4 bn) Debt financing, contingent loan from WB/ADB, Japan and Australia
c. Additional loans program amounting to Rp1,1 trn from 2008 which had not been dispersed
earlier
Value (Rp)
A Tax-saving for Individual, Employee and Corporates 43.0
B. Import duty-subsidy / tax subsidy for business 13.3
C. Non-tax subsidy for business/job opportunity and household 17.0
Total Stimulus 73.3
Description
28
2009 Budget with Safety Net and Crisis Prevention Mechanism
Assumptions on Macroeconomic Indicators
Original Adjusted Original Adjusted
GDP growth rate 6.0% 4.5% Average IDR/USD 9,400 11,000
Average inflation rate 6.2% 6.0% Average oil production 960,000 barrels/day 960,000 barrels/day
Interest rate on 3-month short-term SBI 7.5% 7.5% Average ICP US$80/barrel US$45/barrel
Assumption 1 USD = IDR 9,400 for Original Budget, 1 USD = IDR 11,000 for Adjusted Budget Source: Ministry of Finance
EXPENDITURE
Original Adjusted
Central Government’s own expenditure $76.2bn $62.3bn
Capital and recurrent expenditure $32.3bn $27.6bn
Debt interest service $10.8bn $10.1bn
Total subsidy $17.7bn $11.2bn
Others $15.4bn $13.4bn
Transfers to regional Governments $34.1bn $27.6bn
Total expenditure $110.3bn $89.8bn
Total expenditure as % of GDP 19.47% 18.01%
Memo: Stimulus spending $ 1.3bn $ 1.9bn
REVENUE
Original Adjusted
Domestic revenue $104.8bn $77.1bn
Tax revenue $77.2bn $60.2bn
Non-tax revenue $27.5bn $16.9bn
External grants $0.1bn $0.1bn
Total revenue $104.9bn $77.1bn
Total revenue as % of GDP 18.50% 15.46%
BUDGET DEFICIT
Budget deficit -$5.5bn -$12.7bn
Budget deficit as % of GDP 1.00% 2.50%
2009 Budget (in USD)
The 2009 budget is designed to give the Government enough room toadjust to any potential impact of the global credit crisis
29
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Dec(PrevYear)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agt Sept Nov
2006 2007 2008 2009
Approved Regional Budget 2006 - 2009
Year Approved Before April2006 68.63%2007 72.19%2008 100.00%2009 98.77%
30
Consolidated Deficit for Central and Region Government
-1.1
-0.5
-0.9
-1.3
-2.5
-0.50
-0.30 -0.35-0.1
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
National Budget
Regional Budget
% t
o G
DP
31
Outstanding Regional Development Bank Fund in SBIin IDR Trillion
6.52
14.42
40.35
33.35
24.01
-
10
20
30
40
50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
32
Newly 2009 Budget Outlook
Adjust macroeconomic assumptions: Economic growth: 6.0% 4,5% IDR/USD: 9,400 11,000 World oil price: 80 45 US$/b
Original capital and social spending through line ministries remain unchanged Incorporate fiscal stimuli (1.4% of GDP) to stabilize the economy
Revenue projected to be lower than original budget Accelerate expenditure disbursement from the central and regional government Semi Automatic price adjustment with maximum cap applied to gasoline price
Budget deficit: 1% to 2.5% of GDP Increase in budget deficit to be financed by 2008 budget surplus of US$4.7bn (1% GDP) and additional
debt of US$4bn (0.8% GDP) Arrange contingencies financing from multilateral and bilateral countries in anticipation of any worsening
of the Financial crisis
33
INSTRUMENT AMOUNT PURPOSE
JAPAN BSA USD 16 bio BOP
Cina BCSA USD 15 bio Trade
CMIM ASEAN+3 USD 15 bio BOP
JBIC+ADB Trade Financing
USD 1 bio Trade
DDO WorldBank USD 2 bio Budget
DDO ADB+Billateral USD 3.5 bio Budget
Available SWAP Agreement and Foreign Exchange Inflow 2009
34
2007 2008 2009
SUN (Rupiah) 86,37 86,93 31,38
SUKUK (Rupiah) 5,56
Global SUKUK 7,15(1
Global Bond 16(2 46.2(3 33,00(4
Total issued 77,1
Remaining Issuance 22,5
(2009 Value is as of April 16, 2009)
Bonds Issuance (in IDR Trillion)
(1 Equivalent to USD 650 Million(2 Equivalent to USD 1,5 Billion(3 Equivalent to USD 1,5 Billion(4 Equivalent to USD 3 Billion
35
Liquidity Support for Budget and BOP
Parameters: Deficit increased from USD5.5 bn (1.0% GDP) to USD12 bn (2.5% GDP) Finance by accumulated budget surplus amounted USD 4.6 bn Additional Debt required: USD 4.0 bn Under the volatile market, the additional “contingencies” financing coming from:
- The World Bank - ADB - Bilateral (G2G): Japan and Australia
Maintain amount of government securities of USD4.9 bn nett of issuance, including domestic and international Sukuk
Budget Deficit Financing (in USD)
In response to forex risk due to volatile market conditions, steps taken:
Extend BSA swap with Japan, USD 6 bn to USD 12 bn Bilateral swaps with China in Local Currency USD 15 bn Trade Financing through IND Exim Bank with JBIC up to USD 500 mn
Liquidity and Trade Financing Support (in USD)
36
2009 Funding Plan
Notes:
a) Estimates based on new set of assumptions plus additional fiscal stimulus measures
b) 2008 financing surplus
c) Additional debt from standby facility
2009 Original Budget 2009 Budget Outlook a)
Revenue and Grant 1 $104.9bn $77.1bn
Expenditures 2 $110.3bn $89.8bn
Deficit 1-2 -$5.5bn - $12.7bn
Financing 3+4+5 $5.5bn $12.7bn
Non Debt 3 $0.6bn $5.0bn b)
Amortization 4 -$11.3bn - $10.6bn
Loan -$6.6bn - $6.6bn
Gov. Securities -$4.8bn - $4.1bn
Gross debt Financing 5 $16.1bn $14.2bn
Loan $5.5bn $5.1bn
Program $2.8bn $2.8bn
Project $2.7bn $2.3bn
Gov. Securities $10.6bn $9.1bn
Additional Debt $4.0bn c)
Assumption 1 USD = IDR 9,691 for 2008, 1 USD = IDR 9,400 for 200 9 Original Budget, 1 USD = 11,000 for 2009 Budget OutlookSource: Ministry of Finance
Budget Deficit Financing (in USD)
Conclusion
38
Conclusion
• Indonesia continue to experience robust economic growth, improved investment climate, low inflation and reduce debt to GDP ratio.
• Indonesia economy experience a negative impact due to slower world economic growth and negative world trade volume.
• In response the global crisis, Indonesia introduce easing monetary policy, prudent financial sector, provide liquidity for forex market and fiscal stimulus in line with other Asian countries.
• In order to fulfill the financing need for fiscal stimulus, trade financing facility and liquidity support, Indonesia received various contingent facilities from the World Bank, ADB, and from bilateral counterpart such as Japan, China, and Australia.
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