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The Plant and Equipment Wellness Wayto Enterprise Asset Management Success and
World Class Operational Excellence
3-day training course
DAY 2
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PEW/PWW Course Content
Day 1
Foundations
• Physics of Failure
• Reliability
• Risk
• Cost of Failure
• Series Arrangements
• Human Error
• Life Cycle
• Reliability Improvement
Day 2
PWW Processes
• Risk Identification
• Risk Selection
• Risk Control Planning
• Risk Control Introduction
• Risk Monitoring
• Risk Continual Elimination
Day 3
Reliability Creation
• Business Risk Reduction
• Stress to Process Model
• Life Cycle Risk Reduction
• Operational Risk Reduction
• Machinery Risk Reduction
• Making Changes
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Start by Developing Situational Process Maps
Operational Risk
Assessment
Risk Control Plans for
Maximum Reliability
Operational Strategy Design Strategy Maintenance Strategy
ACE 3T Precision
Operation Procedures
Precision Specifications BD – PM – PdM – Design
Out – Precision
Equipment Selection &
Engineering Design
Precision Operation
Assess Effectiveness
in Controlling Risk
ACE 3T Precision
Maintenance Tasks
Accept or Improve
Reliability
Update and Action
Risk Control Plans
•Script the details
•Select strategy
•Write ACE 3T Procedures
•Parallel proof tests for activities
•Update database
•Measure extent of improvement
•Cost against world class results
•Expert team reviews
•Limit operating parameters
•Skills upgrade
•Design-out failures
•Change strategy
•Update database
•New training
•New tools and equipment
•New procedures
•Identify failure causes
•Identify chance of failure
•Set Equipment Criticality
•Write control plans
indicating actions and
responsibility
Process Maps
•Identify failure costs
•Identify size of risks
•Apply to equipment
•Apply to work processes
The Plant and Equipment
Wellness Methodology
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PEW/PWW Course Content
Day 2
PWW Processes
• Risk Identification
• Risk Selection
• Risk Control Planning
• Risk Control Introduction
• Risk Monitoring
• Risk Continual Elimination
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Plant Wellness Process 1 – Risk Identification
Develop Process Mapsof
Business – Machine – Work
Identify Risks in Each
Process Step
Categorize Effects of
Each Risk
Downtime Safety, Health,
Environment Loss
Quality LossRate Loss
Determine Defect and
Failure Total Business-
Wide Costs
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Draw the Process Map to See the ‘Chance of Success’
Rbusiness = R1 x R2 x R3 x … x Rn
Rprocess = R1 x R2 x R3 x … x Rn
Rjob = R1 x R2 x R3 x … x Rn
12
3
64 5
7
8
910
12
13
11
Rmachine = R1 x R2 x R3 x … x Rn
“Without tools to find exactly what they need to focus on, without evidence that high reliability is worthwhile, and without an achievable plan to deliver it, organisations will waste away.”
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No Certainty; Risk Changes Unless Controlled
Chance
Interaction of un-
coordinated agents
Risk Events are more
likely than by Chance
Consequence
Scale-free outcomes
Driven by a few key factors
Risk
Chance Consequence
Controlling risk demands that an organisation has the culture and practices to guarantee continuous, rigorous compliance to risk reduction practices, else the chance of failure rises
over time as systems degrade, and eventually the worst will happen.
Risk = Consequence x [Frequency of Opportunity x Chance of Failure at Each Opportunity]
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Aim to Find the Optimal Risk/Reliability Balance
Chance
Interaction of un-
coordinated agents
Risk Events
are more likely
than by Chance
Consequence
Scale-free outcomes
Driven by a few key
factors
Risk
Chance Consequence
PM CM RTF PdM
DESIGN OUT
Risk = Consequence of Failure x [Frequency of Opportunity x Chance of Failure at Opportunity]
1-RELIABILITY
“Equipment Reliability and Operating Risk are inversely proportional”
PrM
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Defect Creation and Failure Initiation
1
10
6,500
20,000
The Failure Pyramid
Repairs
Losses
Serious Failure
Defect Modes
Defect and Failure Cost
Surge
Source: Ledet, Winston, The Manufacturing Game
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Common Defect Management Strategies
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Defect Elimination and Failure Prevention
If you don’t want problems you need to prevent their cause. If you don’t want high maintenance you need to prevent the causes of that maintenance.
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The Trouble with Accepting a Defect
Soft-foot is an example of a defect regularly brought into companies, that then causes on-going problems
Stack or Deck of shims
Bolt Head Machine Foot Shank Thread Frame
Bolt Head Machine Foot Shank Thread FrameShim Shim Shim Shim Shim
The shims have made the connection more unreliable. There are now more things to go wrong. They have added cost, additional maintenance and certainty of
human error at some point in time.
IT DID NOT HAVE TO BE SO!
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Challenge Yourself to IT5 Machine Health Standards
ANSIAPI
ANSI pump base flatness = 0.375mm/m (0.005in/ft)… this standard causes soft-foot
API 610 flatness = 0.150mm/m (0.002in/ft)… this standard has few soft-foot problems
‘Reliability lives within 10 micron of perfection: Become a 5 micron quality company’
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Defect and Failure Total (DaFT) Costs and Losses go Company-wide
It’s unbelievable how much money is wasted all over the business with each failure. The one I like is the time lost matching invoices against purchase orders that did not need to be
raised, but for the failure! The ‘lost life value’ of parts is expensive too.
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Whenever I’ve calculated the DAFT Costs they came out between 7 and 15 times the direct repair cost. I use 10 times as a ‘rule of thumb’.
Failure Costs Surge throughout a Company
Labour
Product Sales
Services
Capital Equipment
Consequence
Waste
Materials
AdministrationEquipment Failure Cost
Surge
Curtailed Life
Every department in the business gets hit from the ‘failure cost surge’.
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Calculate the True Downtime Costs
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Equipment Process Maps Show Us Series Risks
Power
Supply
Switch
Board
Power
Cable
Electric
Motor
Drive
Coupling
Wet EndBearing
Housing
Product
Flows
Stator Motor
Bearings
Motor
Shaft
Motor
Frame
Rotor Shaft
Rotates
Terminal
Connections
Brushes
Mechanical
Seal
Cut
Water
DischargePump
Shaft
Volute Liquid
Flows
Suction Impeller
Base
Plate
Supports
Equipment
Pedestal FoundationHolding
Bolts
Base
Plate
Supports
Equipment
Pedestal FoundationHolding
Bolts
Frame Shaft
Rotates
Pump
Shaft
Shaft
Bearings
Bus Bars Electricity
Flows
StarterDrive
Rack
Power
Provider
Transmission
Line
Transformer Power
Arrives
Wiring and
Circuitry
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PEW SOLUTION: Physics of Failure Causes of Atomic and Microstructure Stress
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Equipment Risk Identification Table
Equip AssemblySub-Assy or
Parts
Sub-Sub Assy
or Parts
Risks - Possible Causes
of Failure
Effects of Worst Likely
Failure
DAFT Cost of Worst
FailureComments
Pump-set
01
1 Power Supply
Power Provider failure Downtime $100,000$25,000 per hour. Minimum 4 hours if
power is turned off
Lightening strike 1. Downtime $200,000Minimum 8 hours if power is lost due to
failure
2 Switch Board
Fire Downtime $200,000
Liquid ingress Downtime $200,000
Impact 1. Downtime $200,000
3Panel
Connection
Loose clamp bolts 1. Fire in switchboard
2. Poor cable crimping Fire in switchboard
4 Drive Rack
1. Dust from Product Fire in switchboard
Poor assembly 1. Fire in switchboard
3. Rust into place 1. Downtime
5 Motor StarterOverload 1. Downtime
Short circuit 1. Major electrical burn
6 Power Cable
7 Electric Motor
8 Connection
9 Motor frame
10 Base Plate
11 Holding Bolts
12 Pedestal
13 Foundation
14 Stator
15 Brushes
16 Rotor
17 Bearings
18 Shaft
19 Drive Coupling
20 Bearing Housing
22 Shaft
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Process Map the Job Activity to See Series Risk
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Work Activity Risk Identification Table
Dep't Process Job Task
Risks - Possible
Causes of
Failure
Effects of
Worst Likely
Failure
DAFT Cost of
Worst FailureRisk Control Plans Actions to be Taken
Proof that
Actions are
Completed
Production
1
Monthly
Cost
Report
2
Start
Information
Collection
Gather Sales
information
from
Accounts
1. Information
not available
Report not
completed on time$500
Warn Accounts of
impending report date
Set-up a electronic schedule
entry to automatically warn
Accounts Manager one
week prior report due date
Department Manager
to check schedule
entered
2. Wrong
information
provided
Bad management
decision$10,000
Get Accounts to double-
check cost information is
correct
Accounts to include double
check actions into their
work procedure
Accounts to send copy
of revised procedure to
Department Secretary
for review
3. Incomplete
information
presented
Bad management
decision$10,000
Get Accounts to double-
check cost information is
complete
Accounts to include double
check actions into their
work procedure
Accounts to send copy
of revised procedure to
Department Secretary
for review
3Collate
Monthly Costs
Put costs into
cost centres
4Compile
Spreadsheet
Enter cash
flow details
using data
entry
procedure
5Review Cost
Spreadsheet
Department
Manager
checks
spreadsheet
6
Confirm all
costs are
recorded
7Write Monthly
Report
Department
Manager
writes report
8
Report
forwarded to
Head Office
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PEW/PWW Course Content
Day 2
PWW Processes
• Risk Identification
• Risk Selection
• Risk Control Planning
• Risk Control Introduction
• Risk Monitoring
• Risk Continual Elimination
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Plant Wellness Process 2 – Risk Rating
Determine the Equipment
Criticality Risk Rating
Grade Each Risk by its
Impact on Reaching the
Business Vision
Low Risk Medium Risk Extreme RiskHigh Risk
Script Asset Performance
required to Deliver the
Business Vision
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Uncertain Component Degradation Rates mean Uncertain Equipment Failure Dates and Costs
Smooth Running
Time (Depending on the situation this can be from hours to months.)
Op
era
tin
g P
erf
orm
ance
Failed
Impending Failure
Change in Performance Detectable
Do Maintenance & Condition Monitor
Operating Below Service SpecificationRepair or Replace
F
P
Inspection Frequency(one-third of P-F interval)
Impeller Wear
Volute Wear
Mechanical Seal
Shaft Coupling
Inboard Bearing
Outboard Bearing
Motor Stator Windings
Motor Rotor WindingsDrive-end Bearing
Non-Drive End Bearing
Time or Usage
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
0
P
Breakdown
Direct Coupled Centrifugal Pump
Degradation Curve Concept Each Part has a Degradation Curve
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Uncertain Operating Life Remaining with Business-Wide Costs and Losses = RISK DECISIONS
Time (Depending on the situation this can be from hours to months.)
Op
era
tin
g P
erf
orm
ance
Cost of Minor Maintenance & Condition Monitoring
Business-Wide Costs of Failure
Business-Wide Cost of Planned
Repair
F1
P1
Future Costs and Losses Arise when a Failure is Initiated
P2
F2
Time (Depending on the situation this can be from hours to months.)
Op
era
tin
g P
erf
orm
ance
F1
P1
F3
Fluctuating Degradation Rate Introduces Uncertainty in Timing and Amount of Expenditure
$$
F2
$$ $
Business-Wide Costs = maintenance cost + production costs + production losses + all other business-wide losses/costs
We have a probabilistic situation!
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Recognising the Extent of Your Risks
Planned Work = $50K business-wide costs
Breakdown Work = $300K business-wide costs
Time (Depending on the situation this can be from hours to months.)
Op
era
tin
g P
erf
orm
ance
F1
P1
Expected Scenario
Raise Work Order #1
One Month
Time (Depending on the situation this can be from hours to months.)
Op
era
tin
g P
erf
orm
ance
P1
Worst Scenario
One Week
F1How long are you willing to wait to do WO #1?
1
B
1
B
B
Do WO #1
Event Risk ‘Envelope’
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The Risk in Rescheduling Maintenance Work
Planned Work = $50K business-wide costs
Breakdown Work = $300K business-wide costs
Time (Depending on the situation this can be from hours to months.)
Op
era
tin
g P
erf
orm
ance
F1
P1
Expected Scenario
Raise Work Order #1
One Month
Time (Depending on the situation this can be from hours to months.)
Op
era
tin
g P
erf
orm
ance
P1
Worst Scenario
One Week
F1
1
How often are you willing to reschedule WO #1?
Do WO #1
Resched WO #1
B2
1
B
2
Cost of Scheduling Misjudgement = $250K loss
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Use a Risk Matrix to Show Impact of Choices
Nothing is Certain with Risk; It Changes Unless it is Controlled
Risk = Consequence x [Frequency of Opportunity x Chance of Failure at Each Opportunity]
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Plot Current Operational Risk on the Matrix
Likelihood of Equipment
Failure Event per Year
DA
FT
Co
st
per
Ev
en
t
$3
0
$1
00
$3
00
$1
,00
0
$3
,00
0
$1
0,0
00
$3
0,0
00
$1
00
,00
0
$3
00
,00
0
$1
,00
0,00
0
$3
,00
0,00
0
$1
0,0
00,0
00
$3
0,0
00,0
00
$1
00
,00
0,00
0
$3
00
,00
0,00
0
$1
,00
0,00
0,00
0
Event
Count /
Year
Time ScaleDescriptor
ScaleHistoric Description 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9
100 Twice per week 2 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11
30Once per
fortnight1.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5
10Once per
monthCertain 1 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10
3Once per
quarter0.5 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5
1 Once per yearAlmost
Certain
Event will occur on an
annual basis0 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9
0.3Once every 3
yearsLikely
Event has occurred
several times or more in
a lifetime career
-0.5 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5
0.1Once per 10
yearsPossible
Event might occur once
in a lifetime career-1 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8
0.03Once per 30
yearsUnlikely
Event does occur
somewhere from time to
time
-1.5 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5
0.01Once per 100
yearsRare
Heard of something like
it occurring elsewhere-2 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7
0.003Once every
300 years-2.5 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
0.001Once every
1,000 yearsVery Rare
Never heard of this
happening-3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6
0.0003Once every
3,000 years-3.5 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5
0.0001Once every
10,000 years
Almost
Incredible
Theoretically possible
but not expected to
occur
-4 3.5 4 4.5 5
Note: Risk Level 1) Risk Boundary 'LOW' Level is set at total of $10,000/year
Red = Extreme 2) Based on HB436:2004-Risk ManagementAmber = High 3) Identify 'Black Swan' events as B-S (A 'Black Swan' event is one that people say 'will not happen' because it has not yet happened)
Yellow = Medium 4) DAFT Cost (Defect and Failure True Cost) is the total business-wide cost from the event
Green = Low
Blue = Accepted
$$$$$$
Reduce Consequence
Re
du
ce C
han
ce
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Activity : Will these PM tasks prevent a failure?
Source: Ricky Smith, Allied Reliability, 2009
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Activity – How sure are you that a maintenance task is truly effective in preventing the equipment failure?
Table shows actual results of RCM analysis to be implemented.
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Risk Based Operating Strategy
• Know the worst case business-wide financial loss of a failure event.
• Make the risk visual by identifying the risk ‘envelop’ on a risk matrix.
• Let people that know the chance-of-failure ‘envelope’ make the WO scheduling decisions.
• Measure and track the rate of degradation when an impending failure is identified.
• Use stress reduction and degradation management controls to reduce the odds of a breakdown.
Impeller Wear
Volute Wear
Mechanical Seal
Shaft Coupling
Inboard Bearing
Outboard Bearing
Motor Stator Windings
Motor Rotor WindingsDrive-end Bearing
Non-Drive End Bearing
Time or Usage
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
0
P
Breakdown
Good – use suitable CM to detect ‘P’ potential failure point sufficiently early.
Better – use risk based prioritisation to schedule work orders with increasing risk acknowledged and approved up the command hierarchy.
Best – use proactive degradation management to extends operating life and delay ‘P’.
Impeller Wear
Volute Wear
Mechanical Seal
Shaft Coupling
Inboard Bearing
Outboard Bearing
Motor Stator Windings
Motor Rotor WindingsDrive-end Bearing
Non-Drive End Bearing
Time or Usage0
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Case Study – Use a Risk Cost Calculator to Understand Impacts of Risk Management Options
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Classical Risk Analysis Method
Targets, Criteria
Equipment
Identification of Failure Causes
Frequency Analysis Consequence Analysis
Risk Determination
Evaluate Business Case, Recommendations
WorkOrder
History
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To Gauge Risk We need to Measure and See It
Risk ($/Yr) =
Frequency of Occurrence (events/Yr)
x Consequence of Occurrence ($/event)
Risk is the product of probability or likelihood that an event will happen and the cost if it does. It is a power law. The Operating Risk is the total size
of the financial loss that will be incurred from a failure during operation.
Risk does not arise entirely randomly; rather it is affected by ‘decision-makers’ present in a system, usually us. It means the risk of catastrophic events occurs more often than by pure chance. In power-law-mirrored events a few factors have huge impacts, while all the numerous rest have little effect. For risk this means there are a few key factors that influence the likelihood of catastrophe. Control these few factors and you increase the chance of success.They are known as the critical success factors. You can identify them by asking, “What affects the ability to meet the objective?”
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Identify What Risks You WILL NOT Carry
This table is the basic approach to identify the extent of risk. There is full mathematical modelling as well, but this basic method is a fine start. The layout is universal. You change ‘consequence’ descriptions to what
you are willing to accept, and the costs to DAFT Costs you are willing to pay.
Reduce Consequence
Red
uce
Ch
ance
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Risk $/yr = Consequence ($)
x
No of Opportunities (/yr)
X
Chance of Failure at Opportunity
Apply DAFT costs when using the risk
management process to get a full understanding
of what it really costs the business so you can make better lifetime decisions.
The DAFT Costs are horrendous and unless
fully reflected in your risk analysis you will under-cost your true exposure.
Need DaFT Costs to See Total Business Risk
Extracted from AS 4360
Best to follow ISO 31000 Risk Management Guideline
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Equipment Criticality
Equipment Criticality is used to identify operating equipment in risk order of importance to the continued operation of a facility.
Those equipment items that stop the operation, or cause major costs if they fail, are identified as critical.
The selection of appropriate means to prevent a failure can only be made when all the implications and knock-on effects are fully
costed, understood and appreciated.
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Recognising the Size of Your Equipment Risk
Equipment Criticality =
Operational Risk ($/yr) =
Failure Frequency (/yr) x Cost Consequence ($)
Equipment Criticality is a risk rating indicator.
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Equipment Criticality Includes all Risks
Equipment Item
ProcessSubstance
Hazard
PotentialConsequence ofMachine failure
on process
Safety Case/ Legislation
Hazard due toMechanical failure
potential
Serious Business Consequence
(DISCRETIONARY)
Consider the natureOf the hazard
Is process substance hazard HIGH?
Consider potentialRelease consequence
Is potential releaseconsequence HIGH?
Are potential consequences
HIGH?
Is potential for mechanical failure
HIGH?
Is system to beClassified “Critical”?
Is system to beclassified “Critical”?
CRITICAL forpotential process consequences
CRITICAL forMechanical failure Potential hazards
CRITICAL under the Regulations/Legislation
CRITICAL for seriousBusinessconsequences
YESNO Not
CRITICAL
CRITICAL forProcess Substance reasons
Thanks to David Finch for the slide
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65%
25%
10%Spend on
Machines
by Size 300KW
50-300KW
0-50KW
Maintenance Expenditure
Risk = Consequence $ x [Frequency of Opportunity x Chance of Failure at Each Opportunity]
1
10
6,500
20,000
The Failure Pyramid
Repairs
Losses
Serious Failure
Defect Modes
Defect and Failure Cost
Surge
Source: Ledet, Winston, The Manufacturing Game
What you see as maintenance costs is a reflection the number problems and defects suffered by your plant and equipment.
1-RELIABILITY
What Risks are Your Equipment Experiencing?
Time/Usage related ImplicationsTime/Usage related Implications
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The Application of Risk Based Principlesto Managing Maintenance
Hazard Identificationidentifies failure modes
Risk Assessmentestablishes the probability and
consequence of failure
Risk Evaluationdetermines the acceptability of failure
to safety, process etc
Risk Controlreduces risk through effective
maintenance practices
MonitoringVerifies initial assumptions and
maintenance effectiveness
In Maintenance you deliver the risk control strategies selected for your operation, and then check if they
actually do lift the plant reliability. If they are not working well enough it
requires an investigation to understand what is happening with the delivery of
the strategy.
Includes Regular
Process Auditing
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How the Risk Matrix Frequency is Developed
Risk Level
Descriptor DescriptionIndicative Frequency(expected to occur)
Actual Failures per
Year(historic evidence basis)
Likelihood of Failure per Year(opportunity for failure basis)
Opportunities(No. of Times a Situation Arises)
Probability of Failure
6 CertainFailure event will occur at this
site annually or more oftenOnce a year or
more often1 or more
Count every time the situation for an event occurs
1 if failure results every time the situation arises
5 LikelyFailure event regularly occurs
at this siteOnce every 2 to
3 years1 in 2 = 0.5
1 in 3 = 0.33Count every time the situation
for an event occurs0.1 if failure results 1 in 10 times the situation arises
4 PossibleFailure event is expected to
occur on this siteOnce every 4 to
6 years1 in 4 = 0.251 in 6 = 0.17
Count every time the situation for an event occurs
0.01 if failure results 1 in 100 times the situation arises
3 UnlikelyFailure event occurs from time
to time on this site or in the industry
Once every 7 to 10 years
1 in 7 = 0.141 in 10 = 0.1
Count every time the situation for an event occurs
0.001 if failure results 1 in 1,000 times the situation
arises
2 RareFailure event could occur on
this site or in the industry but doubtful
Once every 11 to 15 years
1 in 11 = 0.091 in 15 =0.07
Count every time the situation for an event occurs
0.0001 if failure results 1 in 10,000 times the situation
arises
1 Very RareFailure event hardly heard of in the industry. May occur but in
exceptional circumstances
Once every 16 to 20 years
1 in 16 = 0.061 in 20 = 0.05
Count every time the situation for an event occurs
0.00001 if failure results 1 in 100,000 times the situation
arises
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Risk Identification and Removal Worksheets
Before setting-up an RCFA Team, use this simple approach with the plant operator and maintainers. They usually know what is going
on in the place!
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Match Equipment Maintenance and Operating Practices to Equipment Criticality
ComponentSub-
ComponentTotal Failure Cost Risk Rating
Equipment
Criticality at
Present
Required
Operating
Practice
Required
Maintenance
Equipment
Criticality
AFTER
Mitigations
System
Loss Cost
$
Sub-System
Loss Cost
$
Event
Frequency
SHOW IT ON A
RISK MATRIX
SHOW IT ON A
RISK MATRIX
EngineRisk = Total of
sub-systems?????
Fuel system 1500 Often EMonitor
operation
Regular
service?????
Crank and
pistons1000 Occasional E
Monitor
operation
Regular
service?????
Engine
block2500 Rare H
Monitor
operation
Regular
service?????
Cooling
system1000 Occasional H
Monitor
operation
Regular
service?????
Oil system 1000 Often EMonitor
operation
Regular
service?????
Ignition
system1500 Often E
Monitor
operation
Regular
service?????
Gearbox 3000 Occasional HRegular
service?????
You put this table together with the people that operate the plant in face-to-face meetings. It’s their money you will be spending, and they need to be happy with how it impacts their costs and their production plans.
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PEW/PWW Course Content
Day 2
PWW Processes
• Risk Identification
• Risk Selection
• Risk Control Planning
• Risk Control Introduction
• Risk Monitoring
• Risk Continual Elimination
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Plant Wellness Process 3 – Risk Controls
•Chance / Consequence
Reduction Strategies
EXISTING OPERATIONS
PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
Select Risk Controls
identified using
FMECA and RGCA
Plant and Equipment
Risk Management
Plans
Operating
Tasks
Maintenance
Tasks
Accuracy
Controlled
Enterprise
Engineering
Re-Design
Confirm Extent of Risk
Reduction and Amount of
DAFT Cost Savings
NEW CAPITAL
PROJECTS, PLANT AND
EQUIPMENT
Design and Operations
Cost Totally Optimised
Risk (DOCTOR)
Defect Elimination and
Failure Prevention
Documentation
48www.lifetime-reliability.com
Risk Reduction – Reduce Chance or Reduce Consequence?
Risk = Chance x Consequence
Engineering and Maintenance Standards Failure Design-out - Corrective Maintenance Failure Mode Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA) Statistical Process Control Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA) Precision Maintenance Hazard Identification (HAZID) Training and Up-skilling Quality Management Systems Planning and Scheduling Continuous Improvement Supply Chain Management Accuracy Controlled Enterprise SOPs (ACE 3T) Design, Operation, Cost Total Optimisation Review (DOCTOR) Defect and Failure True Cost (DAFTC) Oversize/De-rate Equipment Reliability Engineering
Preventative Maintenance Predictive Maintenance Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) Non-Destructive Testing Vibration Analysis Oil Analysis Thermography Motor Current Analysis Prognostic Analysis Emergency Management Computerised Maintenance Management System (CMMS) Key Performance Indicators (KPI) Risk Based Inspection (RBI) Operator Watch-keeping Value Contribution Mapping (Process step activity based costing) Logistics, stores and warehouses Maintenance Engineering
Chance Reduction Strategies Consequence Reduction Strategies
Done to reduce the chance of failure Done to reduce the cost of failure
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$
Output / TimeEffects on Profitability of Reducing Consequence Only
t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6
Fewer profits lost, but ‘fire-
fighting’ is high
Accumulated Wasted Variable and Failure Costs
Wasted Fixed Costs
Revenue
Variable Cost
Fixed Cost
Total Cost
Never
ends
Time
$
Output / TimeEffects on Profit of Reducing Chance Only
t1 t2
Fewer Profits
Lost
Wasted Fixed Costs
Revenue
Total Cost
Fixed Cost
Variable Cost
49www.lifetime-reliability.com
Maintenance Strategy for Risk Management
Critical Spares
Parts Level FMEA or
RGCA
Engineering, Maintenance and Operational Risk Management
Requirements
Condition Monitoring
DAFT Costing Equipment Criticality
ACE 3T Work Procedures
Skilled Resource
Requirements
Equipment Asset
Life Cycle Choices
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PEW SOLUTION: Apply Chance Reduction by Proactive Risk Management
•Engineering & Maintenance Standards
•Design-out Maintenance
•Precision Maintenance
•3T Standardised Operating Procedures
•Failure Mode Effect Criticality Analysis
•Reliability Growth Cause Analysis
•Hazard and Operability Study
•Hazard Identification
•Root Cause Failure Analysis
•Training and Up-skilling
•Quality Management Systems
•Planning and Scheduling
•Continuous Improvement
•Supply Chain Management
•Accuracy Controlled Enterprise
•Design and Operations Cost Totally Optimized Risk
•Defect and Failure Total Cost
•De-rate/Oversize Equipment
•Reliability Engineering
•Preventive Maintenance
•Corrective Maintenance
•Breakdown Maintenance
•Total Productive Maintenance
•Non-Destructive Testing
•Vibration Analysis
•Oil Analysis
•Thermography
•Motor Current Analysis
•Prognostic Analysis
•Emergency Management
•Computerized Maintenance Management System
•Key Performance Indicators
•Risk Based Inspection
•Operator Watch-keeping
•Process Step Contribution Mapping (Process Step
activity based costing)
•Stores and Warehouses
•Maintenance Engineering
Chance Reduction
Strategies
Consequence Reduction
Strategies
Risk = Chance x Consequence
Proactive prevention of failure Reactive response to failure
Nu
mb
er o
f Ev
ents
Range of Values of a Critical Parameter
IMPROVE PROCESSES
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3 Factors Risk Reduction– Reduce Chance, Opportunity and/or Consequence?
Done to reduce the cost of failure Done to reduce the frequency of failure
Risk = Consequence of Failure x [Opportunity to Fail x (1 – Chance of Success)]
Strategies prevent opportunities for a failure event arising
Engineering / Maintenance Standards Statistical Process Control Degradation Management Reliability Growth Cause Analysis (RGCA) Lubrication Management Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) Hazard Identification (HAZID) Failure Design-out Maintenance Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA) Precision Maintenance Training and Up-skilling Quality Management Systems Planning and Scheduling Continuous Improvement Supply Chain Management Accuracy Controlled SOPs (ACE 3T) Design, Operation, Cost Total Optimisation Review (DOCTOR) Reliability Engineering
Strategies presume failure event occurs and act to minimise consequent losses
Preventive Maintenance Shutdown Maintenance Predictive Maintenance Non-Destructive Testing
Vibration Analysis Oil Analysis Thermography Motor Current Analysis
Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) Prognostic Analysis Criticality Analysis Emergency Management Computerised Maint Mgmt Syst(CMMS) Key Performance Indicators (KPI) Risk Based Inspection (RBI) Operator Watch-keeping Value Contribution Mapping (Process step activity based costing) Logistics, stores and warehouses Defect and Failure True Cost (DAFTC) Maintenance Engineering
Opportunity to Fail Reduction Strategies
Consequence of Failure Reduction Strategies
Strategies reduce probability of failure initiation if failure opportunity present
Training and Up-skilling Oversize / De-rate Equipment Hardier Materials of Construction Personal Protective Equipment (PPE ) Segregation / Separation Controlled Atmosphere Environment e.g. +ve / -ve pressures, explosion proof atmos
Chance to Fail Reduction Strategies
Risk ($/yr) = Consequence of Failure x Frequency of Failure
Interestingly, Chance Reduction choices are best
made during design.
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Equipment Reliability Strategies
Time – Age of Equipment
Strategies for the Infant Mortality Maintenance Zone
Rate of Failing
How to Drive the Chance Curve Down?
How to Pull the Position of the Curve Lower?
How to Push the Time of the Curve Back?
Time – Age of Equipment
Strategies for the Random Failure Maintenance Zone
How to Drive the Position of the Curve Lower?
Rate of Failing
Time – Age of Equipment
Strategies for the Wear-Out Failure Maintenance Zone
Rate of Failing
How to Push the Start of the Rising Curve Back?
How to Lower the Curve Steepness?
Quality Control,Training,
Precision Assembly
PM,PdM,
PrecisionOperation
Replace Equipment,Add more components
to renewal PM
53www.lifetime-reliability.comOperating Risk = Consequence of Failure x [Frequency of Event x Probability of Failure at Event]
Match Maintenance Strategies to RiskDoing Maintenance must produce Risk Reduction.
Consequence
Like
liho
od
Breakdown Maintenance
Preventive Maintenance
Sampling Predictive Maintenance
Continuous Monitoring Predictive Maintenance
Precision MaintenanceDesign-out Maintenance
Design-out Maintenance
One way to chose the maintenance type is to match against the risk matrix. The high risks must be prevented by using the right maintenance type for the situation.
Choosing the right maintenance types is not sufficient to guarantee risk reduction. The ‘human element’ must also be addressed to ensure the strategies are being applied correctly and effectively.
1-RELIABILITY
Move from Reactive to Proactive to Risk Reduction.
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Maintenance Strategies Matched to Risk Levels
Consequence Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic
Frequency 1 2 3 4 5
6 Certain PM / Precision CM / PrecisionPrecision /
Design-outDesign-out Design-out
5 Likely PM / Precision CM / PrecisionPrecision /
Design-out
Precision /
Design-outDesign-out
4 Possible PM / Precision PM / Precision CM / PrecisionPrecision /
Design-out
Precision /
Design-out
3 Unlikely BD PM / Precision CM / Precision CM / PrecisionPrecision /
Design-out
2 Rare BD PM / Precision PM / Precision CM / Precision CM / Precision
1 Very Rare BD PM / Precision PM / Precision CM / Precision CM / Precision
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Using a Risk Matrix to Model Our Choices
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Example: Risk Cost Calculation for Roller
57www.lifetime-reliability.com
Developing Equipment Risk Reduction StrategyEquip
Tag
No
Current
Failure
Events
Failure
Events
Frequency
DAFT
Cost of
Failure
Risk Reduction
ActivityImprovement Expected
Freq of
Activity
Cost /
YrFailure Event Reduction
Pump 1Bearings fail
2 years $35,000
Laser shaft alignment to precision practices every time the pump is installed
A precision alignment is expected to deliver 5 years between bearing failures
Every strip-down
$200Failure interval now likely to be greater than 5 years
Oil and wear particle analysis every 1,000 hours of operation
Oil and Wear Particle Analysis can indicate the start of failure several hundred hours prior the event
1,000 hrs or Six monthly
$600Failure will be prevented by a predictive planned condition monitoring task
Visual inspection by the Operator each shift of the oil level in the sight glass
Visual inspection of the oil level ensure the bearings are always lubricated
Every Dayshift
No costFailure will be prevented by operator condition monitoring
Operator physically touches pump bearing housing each week to feel for changed temperature and vibration
Touching the bearing housing will identify impending problems before they cause failure
Wednesday Dayshift
No costFailure will be prevented by operator condition monitoring
Motor load monitoring using process control system to count overloads
Monitoring the electrical load will identify how badly and how often the equipment is stressed by overload
Continuous with monthly report to Ops Manager
$100Poor operating practices will be identified and personnel trained in correct methods
Pump performance monitoring of discharge flow and pressure using process control system
Monitoring the pump performance will indicate gradual changes of pump internal clearances affecting service duty
Continuous with monthly report to Ops Manager
$100
No direct impact on reducing risk of pump failure, but identifies performance drop and allows planned maintenance to rectify internal wear.
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Identify the New Risk Level
Reduce Consequence
Red
uce
Ch
ance
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Use Low Cost Ways to Monitor Low Risks
65%
25%
10%Machines by size
300KW
50-300KW
0-50KW
Current application of CBM is typically on critical machines … what of the rest?
CBM = Condition Based Maintenance = PdM = Predictive Maintenance
Maintenance Expenditure
Stethoscope Laser Thermometer Touch Thermometer Vibration Pen Boroscope Operator & Checklist
First use low-tech options to monitor … then hi-tech to investigate problems.
It’s easy to be focused on looking after the condition of important equipment while lesser items are left to fail. But breakdown maintenance is up to 10 times the cost of planned maintenance. Unless you monitor low priority plant with low-cost methods and operator watch-keeping, you’ll spend your money fixing breakdowns on unimportant equipment.
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PEW/PWW Course Content
Day 2
PWW Processes
• Risk Identification
• Risk Selection
• Risk Control Planning
• Risk Control Introduction
• Risk Monitoring
• Risk Continual Elimination
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Plant Wellness Process 4 - Introduce Risk Control
Write Specifications for
Plant and Equipment
Write ACE 3T Procedures for
Operations, Maintenance,
Engineering and Projects
Training and Competency
Assessment Plans for Up-
skilling Personnel
Train People until
Competency is Achieved
Build Teams and Grant
Autonomy and
Responsibility
Develop Computerised
Database of Operations-
Wide Quality Standards
Make Database Available
to All Personnel
Set and Write Operating, Maintenance
and Work Quality Standards that When
Met Will Deliver Risk Control
Identify Maximum Failure-
Free Service Duty for
Plant and Equipment
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Controlling the Chance of a Failure Event
Consequence of Event
Ch
an
ce
of
Eve
nt Uncontrolled processes
produce a range of outcomes
without consistency
Consequence of Event
Ch
an
ce
of
Eve
nt
GoodGood
Better Better
Do not accept these
outcomes because
they produce high
risk of failure
Do not accept these
outcomes because
they produce high
risk of failure
X XSpecification
Best
Only accept this range of outcomes
because they produce good results
63www.lifetime-reliability.com
Being ‘in control and capable’
Out of control
In control but not capable
In control and capable
Ch
an
ce
of
Eve
nt
Output
Process designed to allow its
natural variation to consistently
produce a range of outcomes
within specification
Out of control
In control and capableIn control but
not capable
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ACE 3T Quality Management System is used for Continual System-Wide Improvement
Quality Improvement Tools
Plan
Do
Measure
Improve
Measure means to check you have statistical control
We want to do all work with certainty that it will improve reliability. To do that we need a business system that promotes and continually improves the accuracy and quality of our engineering, operations
and maintenance workmanship processes across the life cycle . Such system is called a Quality Management System. In PEW we use ACE 3Ts throughout the business and its processes.
Stan
dar
d t
o M
ee
t
Time
Requirements, Needs, Expectations
Performance Level
Degree to which inherent quality characteristics meet stated or implied needs.
The Meaning of Quality
Effect of Using a Quality System
“With maintenance you need to drive a continuous improvement culture.”
65www.lifetime-reliability.com
We create lasting reliability in our machines by stopping these problems starting
12
3
64 5
7
8
910
12
13
11
Electric motor drive end bearing
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Many Opportunities for Errors in Our Work
A Job
Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Task 5 Outcome
P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
A Job
Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Task 5 Outcome
P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
Activity 5-1 Activity 5-2 Activity 5-3 Activity 5-4 Activity 5-5
Activity 1-1 Activity 1-2 Activity 1-3 Activity 1-4 Activity 1-5
Activity 2-1 Activity 2-2 Activity 2-3 Activity 2-4 Activity 2-5
Activity 3-1 Activity 3-2 Activity 3-3 Activity 3-4 Activity 3-5
Activity 4-1 Activity 4-2 Activity 4-3 Activity 4-4 Activity 4-5
67www.lifetime-reliability.com
CEO
Shopfloor
Middle Mgmt and Engineering
Supervisory
Senior MgmtProduction
CEO
Engineering
Maintenance
Marketing Admin
Shopfloor
Who uses the equipment ?
Who knows the equipment capability?
Who knows the process?
Where does the equipment knowledge lay?
What equipment knowledge is needed by each level?
What equipment skills & abilities are needed by each level?
Who owns the equipment?
Design Organisations that Support Reliability
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Production
CEO
Engineering
Maintenance
Marketing Admin
Product Realisation
Mission Management
Resource Management
Demand Management
From … Function Structure
To … Process Structure
Shopfloor
Process Focused – Not Department Focused
A cross-functional team is a group of people with a clear purpose representing a variety of functions or disciplines in the organisation whose combined efforts are necessary for achieving the team’s aim.
A standard cross functional team is composed of those individuals from departments within the firm whose competencies are essential in achieving an optimal outcome.
Define: (1) purpose, (2) duration, (3) membership
69www.lifetime-reliability.com
Why Hierarchy Organizations are High Risk
Hierarchy Structure
Reliability of ACE 3T Team work process is:
R = 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.729
Supervisor paralleled to overview a group
R = 1 - [(1-0.729) x (1-0.9)] = 0.9729
The reliability of the three groups is
R = 0.9729 x 0.9729 x 0.9729 = 0.921
With the Manager in parallel reliability is
R = 1 - [(1-0.921) x (1-0.9)] = 0.992
Manager
Supervisor 1 Supervisor 2 Supervisor 3
Person
1
Person
2
Person
3
Person
1
Person
2
Person
3Person
1
Person
2
Person
3
Manager
Supervisor 1 Supervisor 2 Supervisor 3
Person
1
Person
2
Person
3
Person
1
Person
2
Person
3
Person
1
Person
2
Person
3
RS1
RS1P1 RS1P2 RS1P3
RS2 RS3
RS2P1 RS2P2 RS2P3 RS3P1 RS3P2 RS3P3
RM
Reliability of a 2.5 - 3 sigma work process is:
R = 0.7 x 0.7 x 0.7 = 0.343
Supervisor paralleled to overview a group
R = 1 - [(1-0.343) x (1-0.7)] = 0.803
The reliability of the three groups is
R = 0.803 x 0.803 x 0.8039 = 0.518
With the Manager in parallel reliability is
R = 1 - [(1-0.518) x (1-0.7)] = 0.855
134%
65%
Creating 4-Sigma work performance is a business process decision
Most organisations are 2.5 - 3 Sigma quality without accuracy controlled methods. 4-Sigma performance is rare
70www.lifetime-reliability.com
Teams Create Parallel Arrangements of People
A Job
Task 1
Person
1
Outcome
P31 P32 P33 P34 P35
Help of
Person
2
Help of
Person
3
Task 2
Person
1
Help of
Person
2
Help of
Person
3
Task 3
Person
1
Help of
Person
2
Help of
Person
3
Task 4
Person
1
Help of
Person
2
Help of
Person
3
Task 5
Person
1
Help of
Person
2
Help of
Person
3
P21 P22 P23 P24 P25
P11 P12 P13 P14 P15
Pparallel = 1 - [(1-P1) x (1-P2) x ….(1-Pn)]
In companies that want high quality, high reliability and fewer risks, groups designed with
teamwork organisational structure are likely to produce many more favourable results.
If each person is 90% reliable, their individual
effort results in a job reliability of 59%. When done as a team of three,
the job reliability becomes 99.5%
71www.lifetime-reliability.com
Cross-Functional Teams are High Performers
Manager
Team Speaker
1
Team Speaker
2
Team Speaker
3
Person
1
Person
2
Person
3
RS1 RS2
RS2P1
RS2P2
RS2P3
RM
Person
1
Person
2
Person
3
RS1P1
RS1P2
RS1P3
Person
1
Person
2
Person
3
RS3
RS3P1
RS3P2
RS3P3
Teams Structure
For a team of four people, with each person’s reliability at 0.7
R = 1 - [(1-0.7) x (1-0.7) x (1-0.7) x (1-0.7)] = 1 - [(0.008)] = 0.992
The three groups work in series,
R = 0.992 x 0.992 x 0.992 = 0.976
When the manager, also at reliability 0.7, the reliability of the structure is:
R = 1 - [(1-0.976) x (1-0.7)] = 1 - [(0.007)] = 0.993 (near 4-sigma quality)
Using the same people doing
work with 0.7 reliability, the silo
structure produced 2.5 sigma
quality, while the team
structure delivered 4 sigma
quality. The manager
improved the silo arrangement
by 65% and got 86%
departmental reliability, but in a
team structure they improved
departmental performance by
only 2% to get 99%
departmental reliability.
It seems that most of the
reliability benefits of a team
reside with the team, and
little with the management
levels.2%
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Team-up and bring Knowledge and Skill Together to Stop People Jumping to Wrong Conclusions
Task Activity 1 Decision 1 Task Activity 2
Extra Research
Discuss with
Expert
Check History
Database
Water Supply
Tank
Suction
Piping
Power
Supply
Electric
Motor
Drive
Coupling
Pump
Wet End
Bearing
Housing
R1 R2
R3 R4 R5 R6
R7
Discharge
Piping
Process
Plant
R8 R9
Parallel-up for
Decision Making
Parallel-up for
Faultless Operation
Parallel-up for Fault Finding
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Cross-Functional Teams Parallel the Members Skills and Knowledge together to Benefit All
Water Supply
Tank
Suction
Piping
Power
Supply
Electric
Motor
Drive
Coupling
Pump
Wet End
Bearing
Housing
R1 R2
R3 R4 R5 R6
R7
Discharge
Piping
Process
Plant
R8 R9
Operator
Fitter
Mechanical
Engineer
Operator
Electrical
Engineer
Electrician
Operator
Mechanical
Engineer
Fitter
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Promoting Operator Ownership
When do you know that you ‘own’ a thing?
• When you feel responsibility for its performance• When you are competent in its use• When the ownership is recognised by others• When the support structures in place sustain responsibility
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Operator Monitoring and Watch-keepingUse Operators’ senses everyday to identify and monitor the relationships between
things and for any changed conditions
Ouch!
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Operators Learn about their Equipment …
By physically using human senses to associate readings to conditions …
Stethoscope Laser Thermometer Touch Thermometer Vibration Pen Boroscope
Operators won’t learn much about what to do to cause reliability in these places …
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Operator/Maintainer Watch-keeping Tools
…let operators use low cost tools every day to watch-keep the plant and learn its behaviour
Laser Thermometer
1. Select equipment based on criticality.
2. Determine failure modes and frequency.
3. Specify the 3Ts for the operating conditions.
4. Establish operating condition recording sheets.
5. Specify the frequency of observation.
6. Write ACE 3T SOP to perform the watch-keeping.
7. Specify who to report the problems to.
8. Train people how to check, what to look for, and how to record valuable content.
9. Make the records electronic so they can be trended.
10. Schedule the watch-keeping.
50
60
70
80
90
1 J
un
e
8 J
un
e
15
Ju
ne
22
Ju
ne
29
Ju
ne
6 J
uly
13
Ju
ly
20
Ju
ly
27
Ju
ly
o C
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Operator Monitoring and Watch-keeping
Give the Operator Easy and Safe Access to do Watch-keeping
What can the operator watch-keep on this equipment?
Vibration Pen Contact Points
VCM = Vibration Condition Monitoring
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Be an Accuracy Controlled Enterprise (ACE)
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The Importance and Value of Setting Targets
Nu
mb
er
Range of Outcomes
Tolerance
Good Result
Better Result
Target
Precision
Accuracy
Best Result
TestGood Band
Specification
Best Band
Better Band
Tolerance Range
Fre
qu
en
cy
Targets & Tolerances
Targets, Tolerances and
Tests – the 3Ts of masterly work
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The Need for Training in Precision StandardsN
um
ber
of
Peo
ple
Area of Elite
Skills and
Abilities
Non-existent Mean Exceptional
Nu
mb
er
of
Peo
ple
Area of Elite
Skills and
Abilities
Non-existent Mean Exceptional
Training Moves Ability
toward Excellence
Ch
an
ce
of
Eve
nt
Precision Principle
used to meet
Quality Standard
Old process without
Precision Standards
Quality Standard
The effect of quality
control on variation
Outcome
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PEW SOLUTION: Accuracy Controlled Expert
Control the quality of each task’s outcome with a Target, a Tolerance, and a Proof Test to confirm task achievement – these are the 3Ts of defect elimination and failure prevention!
A technique for controlling theoutcome of human dependentprocesses is to build feedbackand feed forward loops intothe process that provideinformation to continuallycorrect our actions. These areknown as the 3T’s of failureprevention – ‘Target,Tolerance, Test ’.
No.
Range of Outcomes
Specification
Precision
Accuracy
Precision: having a high degree of exactness
A certain thing and no other, strictly correct in amount
Accuracy: the degree of agreement between a measured value and the
standard value for the measurement
Right, truth, correct, close, without error, acceptable deviation
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Accuracy Controlled Enterprise (ACE) 3T
Quality Management System
Industry Best Practices
International Standards New Research
Expert Knowledge
PEW SOLUTION: Use ACE Quality System to Trap Best Knowledge for All to Use Forevermore
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PEW/PWW Course Content
Day 2
PWW Processes
• Risk Identification
• Risk Selection
• Risk Control Planning
• Risk Control Introduction
• Risk Monitoring
• Risk Continual Elimination
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Plant Wellness Process 5 - Risk Monitoring and Measuring
•Maintenance records
•Operations records
•Quality System records
•Safety, Health, Environment
records
Measure Number of
Failures, Losses and
Locations
Identify Reliability Key
Performance Indicators for
Process Steps
Process Step Contribution
Map
System – Equipment – Work
Monitor for Reliability
Growth and Improvement
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Process Step Contribution Analysis
2 5 61
Inputs Inputs Inputs Inputs
Raw Materials
Customer
Profit Contribution continually falls
Bottleneck
Failures, Losses, Waste Failures,
Losses, Waste
Losses Contribution
Failures, Losses, Waste
$$ $ $
$
$
$
$$$$$$
$$$ $$$
$ $ $3
4
Failures, Losses, Waste
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Process Step Contribution Modelling
Process
Step$
$ $ $
$
$$
Local Value
ContributionWaste
Contributions
$$$
Waste
Added
Inputs Boundary
Line around
the Step
Up-stream
Product Cost
Contributions
Added Input Cost
Contributions
Step in and out money flows are used to analyse its profitability
Raw Material Cost + Added Inputs Cost = Value Contribution + Waste Eq. 1
The value contribution is found from equation:
Raw Material Cost + Added Inputs Cost - Waste = Value Contribution Eq. 2
Strangely, from equations 1 and 2, it seems we pay for waste twice, once when we buy it as aninput and second when we throw it away as lost value.
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Increase Productivity
•Maximize Resource Availability
•Create a Proactive Maintenance Strategy
Measure what Is Important in Achieving the Goal
Decrease Maintenance Costs
•Optimize Scheduling and Resource Efficiency
•Minimize Rework
Reduce Accidents and Penalties
•Ensure Regulatory Compliance
•Increase Workplace Safety
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Asset Management & Business Performance
Reliability Equipment performance data (failure
frequencies)
System configuration
Maintainability Maintenance resources
Shift constraints
Mob delays
Spares constraints
Availability Equipment/System uptime
Operability Plant interdependencies
Plant re-start times
Production/demand rates
Storage Size
Tanker Fleet and Operations
Productivity
Achieved production
Production losses
Criticality
Contract shortfalls
Delayed cargoes
Unit Costs/Revenue Product price
Man-hour/spares costs
Transport costs
Discount rates
NPV Return on Investment
Discounted Total Cashflow
Thanks to Dave Finch for the slide
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Hierarchy of Performance Indicators
The only value in measuring your performance is to make sure that you are improving. And if not, then to identify the cause of the poor performance and correct it.
Department & Individual
goals
Site goals
Corporate goals
Thanks to Jim Wardhaugh from the United Kingdom for this concept.
Example KPI Areas
• Return on investment• Regulatory compliance• Revenue generated• Shareholder value added
• Plant availability• Plant integrity• Product margin• Lost time injuries
• Failure rates• Ops & maintenance efficiency• Ops & maintenance effectiveness• Safety audits• Work completion/outstanding
Lagging Indicator
Leading Indicator
Lagging Indicator
Lagging Indicator
Lagging Indicator
Leading Indicator
Lagging Indicator
Leading Indicator
Leading Indicator
Lagging Indicator
Lagging Indicator
Leading Indicator
Leading Indicator
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Adopt the Performance Drivers
Equipment Reliability
• Reliability Centred Maintenance
• Bad Actor Analysis
• Root Cause Analysis
• Risk Based Methodologies
• Precision Maintenance
Process Reliability
• Operating Envelopes
• Corrosion Studies
• Technical Safety Studies
• Common System Safety Studies
• Operating Procedures
Equipment Maintainability
• Life Cycle Costing
• Design Standards
• Plant Modification Procedures
• DAFT Costing
Human Reliability
• Quality Plan
• Training
• ACE 3T Procedures
Thanks to Jim Wardhaugh from the United Kingdom for this concept.
Leading Indicator
Lagging Indicator
Leading Indicator
Leading Indicator
Lagging Indicator
Leading Indicator
Lagging Indicator
Leading Indicator
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Cascading objectives that tie directly back to the overall business goals
Targets
Location Downtime = 30 days per year (82% uptime)
Unintended Downtime = 1.8%
Plant Downtime Targets
Plant A 2.5%, Plant B 4%, Plant C 4.5%, Plant D 4.2%
Plant Reliability Targets (Months without forced stop)
Plant A 25, Plant B 17, Plant C 7, Plant D 17
Equipment ReliabilityTargets
• Pumps 3 yrs MTBF
• Compressors 4 yrs MTBF
• Control valves 8 yrs
• Risk based inspection introduced
Process Reliability Targets
• All design envelopes are defined
• All excursions are identified, reported, and implications understood
Equipment Maintainability Targets
• All new pumps purchased will comply with API 682 seal giving 3 years uninterrupted run
Human Reliability Targets
• Operator starts-up pumps
• Operators isolate LV electric motors
• Operators zero check instruments
EXAMPLEPoor Performer
Pacesetter
Comfort Zone
Thanks to Jim Wardhaugh from the United Kingdom for this concept.
93www.lifetime-reliability.com
Developing KPIs for Business Processes
• Collect data to identify if a process and its steps are working and to spot opportunities for improvement
Work Order Planning Process
ProcurementMaintenance Supervision Planner
Work Identification Process
An approved request, a plant
modification request or a
follow-up from an inspection
Job Safety
Management
Is a JSA or SWI available
or the job?
Set Work Status
Determine the status of
the work order depending
on the availability of all
requirements to do the job
Technical Details and
Specifications
Identifies any required
technical information and
attaches it to the work
order
Workplace Hazard
Identifies any safety
requirements such as Hot
Work or Confined Space
permits
Purchasing and
Requisition
Checks inventory
stocks for any
required materials
and raises purchase
requisitions for any
non stock items
Identify Services and
Materials
Identifies any requirements
for any external resources,
hire equipment etc and
raises purchase requisitions
as required
Unscheduled Work
Process
Non-urgent work initially
thought to be urgent but
priority was reassessed
Plan to Job Priority
Reviews priority and
impact of delaying
preparation and
procurement to decide
when to plan job
Job Scope-Out
Inspects the job & identify
tasks and materials
required using the task
planning sheet
Job Quality Standards
Identifies the engineering
standards and precision
needed for the required
reliability
Y
N
Work Order Scheduling
Process
The planned work order is
available for scheduling into
the 4-Week Rolling Schedule
Develop JSA
Facilitates the creation of a
JSA
Job Plans and Hours
Identify work front
activities, sequencing,
manning and time needed
to do the job
Work Pack
Compile all documents
together and drew all parts
and materials together
Procurement and Stores
Management
Materials, consumables, parts
purchased and stored safely
and reliably until needed
Conversion Process
INPUTS OUTPUT
Before After
Inputs
Outputs
Inputs
Outputs
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Activity – The Cross-Hair Game: Observing Business Process Outcomes
How do you hit the bulls-eye every time?
Cross-hairs and 10 mm diameter
circle
30
0 m
m
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‘Cross Hair’ Manufacturing Process Results
108642 Hits inside 10mm Circle
Fre
qu
ency
Pe
rfo
rman
ce R
eq
uir
ed
100
0
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PEW SOLUTION: Measure the Business Process’ Statistical Stability and Capability
This is a statistically stable process of breakdown creation –this business makes breakdowns as one of its ‘products’.
Week No
Hours
±3
sig
ma
Too many Major Failures (Outliers)
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PEW SOLUTION: Analyse if the Business has a Stable Process of Causing Breakdowns
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PEW/PWW Course Content
Day 2
PWW Processes
• Risk Identification
• Risk Selection
• Risk Control Planning
• Risk Control Introduction
• Risk Monitoring
• Risk Continual Elimination
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Plant Wellness Process 6 – Continual Improvement
Precision and Quality
Improvement
Accuracy Controlled
Enterprise
Chance Reduction
Strategy
Quantify Remaining Risk
with DAFT Costing
System – Equipment – Work
5 Whys / Creative
Disassembly / Root
Cause Failure Analysis
Operational – Maintenance
– Design-Out – Precision
Improvements
Monitor for Reliability
Growth and Improvement
Consequence Reduction
Strategy
‘Change to Win’
Program
Find New Answers with
‘Push the Limit’
Strategy
Apply ‘Best Practices’
Identify Suitable Risk
Reduction Strategies
Update Systems and
Processes Business-Wide
and Train People
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Control sheet fordaily failure
PM-10 Activity
Investigation meeting
PM-10 Activity
Every morning meeting
Sumitomo Chemicals Failure Management Cycle
Prevention
Decision & Review of method and period PM-10 Activity
Prediction of lifePreventative maintenance
Inspection/measuresInquire cause
Classification
Inquiring cause / investigation of measures
Inquire cause
Register tackled theme for reduction
Improved maintenance
Necessity of continuous investigation
Investigation of measuresand follow-up
LateralDevelopment
Preventreoccurrence
Prevent resemblefailure
Implementation of measures
Improved maintenance
Failure measureimplementation
rate
Follow-up
Failure Occurrence
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•Apply to the failure part
•Judge and expose the cause of failure
•Implement the functional test
• Compare/Evaluate difference between
Why - Why Analysis
!!! Exterminate the grave !!!Reduction of Failures
Tackle for extermination of recurrence and resemble failures
Occurrence of grave failure
Analyse failuresDraw up report of failures
Implement counter measure for the drag
Inquire thetrue cause
Clear the cause
Reflection to Maintenance Plan information
Lateral developmentinside the plant
Implementationresults
Decision of lateraldevelopment to all plants
Implement the lateral development to all plants
Draw-up the judgement standard for abnormalities
Investigation meetingof grave failure
Issue the order for lateral development
Sumitomo Chemicals Failure Prevention Cycle
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Effect of System Failures Across Life CycleId
ea C
reat
ion
Ap
pro
val
Det
ail D
esig
n
Pro
cure
me
nt
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Co
mm
issi
on
ing
Dec
om
mis
sio
nin
g
~ 85% of Life Cycle (~ 17 years) ~ 5%
Pre
limin
ary
Des
ign
Feas
ibili
ty
Op
erat
ion
Dis
po
sal
System Chance
of Failing
Component Chance of
Failing
Process failures during this phase will cause plant and equipment failures in operation.
Equipment Life Cycle (say 20 years)
~ 10% of Life Cycle (~ 2 years)
103www.lifetime-reliability.com
Case Study 1 – A Lifecycle Reliability Growth Cause Analysis (RGCA) Activity
• Do an RGCA on the assembly
Shaft Inner Race Roller Ball LubricantLubricant
R4R2 R3R1 R5
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PEW SOLUTION: Reliability Growth Cause Analysis:Creating Operational Reliability by Life Cycle Risk Reduction
Failure Description: ________________________________
Failure Cause: ___________________________________
Frequency of Cause:
Time to Repair:
DAFT Cost:
Causes of Stress/Overload:
Causes of Fatigue/Degradation:
Current Risk Matrix Rating:
Controls to Prevent Cause:
Est. failures prevented after risk controls in use (/yr):
New Risk Matrix Rating:
DAFT Cost savings from higher reliability:
Gauge the effect of the
1) HUMAN FACTORS,
2) BUSINESS PROCESSES,
3) PHYSICAL PROCESSES
AFFECTING EQUIPMENT
4) LATENCY FACTORS
that cause failures…
From Physics of Failure Causes List
105www.lifetime-reliability.com
Reliability Growth Cause Analysis of a BearingFailure Description: Cracked inner roller bearing race
Failure Cause 1:Excessive interference fit
Failure Cause 2:Impact to race
Frequency of Cause: Early Life – 1 per year Random – 3 per year
Time to Repair: 5 hours 10 hours
DAFT Cost: $20,000 $25,000
Causes of Stress/Overload: Large shaft Small bearing race bore
Abuse when fitting Start-up with equipment fully loaded
Causes of Fatigue/Degradation: Not applicable Misaligned shafts Loose race moving on shaft
Current Risk Matrix Rating: Medium Medium
Controls to Prevent Cause:
Update all bearing fitting procedures to measure shaft and bore and confirm correct interference fit at operating temperature and train people annually
Update all machine procurement contracts include quality check of shaft diameters before acceptance of machine for delivery
Update all bearing procurement contracts to include random inspections of tolerances
Update all design and drawing standards to include proof-check of shaft measurements and tolerances on drawings suit operating conditions once bearing is selected
Update all bearing fitting procedures to include using only approved tools and equipment and train people annually. Purchase necessary equipment, schedule necessary maintenance for equipment
Change operating procedures to remove load from equipment prior restart and train people annually (Alternative: Soft start with ramp-up control if capital available)
Align shafts to procedure and train people annually
Update bearing fitting procedures to measure shaft and bore and confirm correct interference fit at operating temperature and train people annually
Est. failures prevented after risk controls in use (/yr):
All future failures 80% of future failures
New Risk Matrix Rating: Low Low
DAFT Cost savings from higher reliability: $20,000 per year $60,000 per year
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PEW SOLUTION: Add Reliability Improvements to Your PM10 Equipment Life Plan Table
PM10 (Preventing Maintenance 10 Year Plan) shows the Strategy to Improve Equipment Reliability
107www.lifetime-reliability.com
Financial Benefits of Reliable Machines
Machine Rate of Failing(Rate of
Occurrence of Failure)
Total Cost of Ownership $
Old ROCOF
Failure curves for parts are not readily changed without redesign. Once a part is in a machine we are stuck with its characteristic performance, i.e. it will behave as its design allows. However, the failure rate of
machines is completely malleable depending on the applied maintenance policies, the operating polices and the accuracy of manufacture and assembly of parts.
Age of System
New ROCOF
Purchase Price
Purchase Price of ReplacementRenew machine at Tangents
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Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA)
What We See
What Caused It
What we see as failure is the end result of failed processes.
RCFA fundamentals• The RCFA process is cause and
effect fault-tree based.• Developing and implementing
solutions uses an expert team.
Finding Evidence and Proof• Operating and maintenance
records and analysis.• Creative disassembly of failed
item(s).• Important to keep accurate
records and history of equipment.
Applying RCFA in the Workplace• Cross-functional team
brainstorming.• The ‘5 Whys’ method is simpler
and usable by the workforce.• Needs operator and maintainer
buy-in for sustained improvement.
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•Flowchart•Fishbone Diagram•Timeline Plots•Distribution Histograms•Pareto Charts•FMEA
Failure
Evidence and Proof
Investigation and Understanding
Analysis and Identification
Corrective Action
Implementation
•Interviews•Protect Equipment/Parts•Documents, Records, Diagrams•Creative Disassembly of Parts•Expert Investigation
Process to Use During Equipment Failure RCFA
•Brainstorming•Brain Writing•Is-Is Not Table•Why Tree (Fault Tree Analysis)•5/7 Whys (to test Why Tree)•3W2H
•Evaluation Table•Affinity Diagrams•Relationship Digraph
•Project Management
Understand the physics – science – key factors – progression
Understand interactions and the human element
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What Level of RCFA to Apply?What do your business procedures say?
•Creative Disassembly
– Individual persons working
on-the-job
– Low cost, little time
– Preventive focus
– “stops the many small causes
that lead to large failures”
– Misses multiple causes
•Root Cause and Effect
– Team of experts in
several meetings
– High cost and time
– “focus on big problems
and you keep having big
problems”
– Identifies wider
perspectives
•Catastrophe Analysis
– Team of experts with
detailed FTA, failure
investigation and
reliability analysis
– Problem of catastrophic
size
– No stone left unturned;
the truth comes out
1
10
30
600
Property Damage
Minor Injuries
Serious Injuries
Incidents
SAFETY ACCIDENTS
1
10 losses
6500 repairs
20,000 defects
Process Losses
Minor Failures
Serious Failure
Procedural Incidents
EQUIPMENT FAILURES
1
10
30
600
Property Damage
Minor Injuries
Serious Injuries
Incidents
EFFECT OF MODERN SAFETY INITIATIVES
Escalate Escalate
The Heinrich Accident Pyramid The Failure Pyramid
Source: Winston Ledet, Manufacturing Game
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Human
Latency
Reason
Business
Process
Failure
Reason
Operational
Failure
Reason
Scientific
Failure
Reason
The Cause-Effect Event Tree Stages
Incident
Why
Why Why
Why
Why Why
Why What Latency Issues Remain???
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What Chance have You to Find the Real Cause?
What Route did Failure take in the Pump Set?
An Internet search by the Author for causesof centrifugal pump-set failures found 228separate ways for the wet-end componentsto fail, 189 ways for a mechanical seal tofail, 33 ways for the shaft drive coupling tofail and 103 ways for the electric motor tofail. This totals 553 ways for one commonitem of plant to fail.
Motor
DriveCoupling
1
2
PumpFails
Wet End
103
1
2
MechSeal
2
1
2
189
33
228
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At Least Identify the Scientific Cause Sequence
Foundation
Failed
Roof
Material
Failed
Column
Material
Failed
Stop
Stop
Stop
Column to
Ground
Connection
Fails
Columns
Tilt
Columns
TumbleRoof Moves
Trailer Hits
Roof
Scientific Event
Sequence
Roof
Fell
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How Precision Links to Asset Management
It’s what the people do and how well they do it … that makes for successful asset management! It needs you to design and build a ‘system-of-success’ to deliver the right ‘activities and practices’,
done at the right time, in the right way, to the right quality.
Asset Management: systematic and coordinated activities and practices through which an organization optimally manages its
assets and asset systems, their associated performance, risks and expenditure over their
life cycles for the purpose of achieving its organizational strategic plan
Source: ISO 55001 Asset Management
115www.lifetime-reliability.com
Precision Maintenance Prevents Failures
Overheating
False Brinelling
Spalling
Uneven Wear
Fretting Corrosion
Electrical Fluting
Smearing
Loaded in Wrong Direction
Lack of Lubricant
Each failure may have one or more dominant modes and we need to find those modes and
model them for each part. The failure curves must represent the situation being investigated if we are
to develop the correct answers.
116www.lifetime-reliability.com
Know How to Read Machine Health Scales
e.g. Lubrication Solids ISO Contamination Count
12/9/7 23/22/2018/16/1314/13/11
e.g. Roller Bearing IT Fits and Tolerance Accuracy
IT4 IT8IT5 IT6 IT7
GOODBETTERBEST
Perfect Result
World Class Target
Certain Failure
Tolerance Limit
Targ
et
OEM
To
lera
nce
PASS / ACCEPT
FAIL / REJECT
117www.lifetime-reliability.com
Precision Maintenance Strategy and Methods Stop these Problems Destroying Reliability
12
3
64 5
7
8
910
12
13
11
Electric motor drive end bearing
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PEW SOLUTION: Precision Maintenance of Plant, Equipment and Machinery is …
Based on data from petrochemical industry survey, precision alignment practices achieve:· Average bearing life increases by a factor of 8.0.· Maintenance costs decrease by 7%.· Machinery availability increases by 12%.Source: - RELIABILITY CENTERED MAINTENANCE GUIDE FOR FACILITIES AND COLLATERAL EQUIPMENT - NASA
1. Accurate Fits and Tolerance at Operating Temperature2. Impeccably Clean, Contaminant-Free Lubricant Life-long3. Distortion-Free Equipment for its Entire Life4. Shafts, Bearings, Couplings running true to Centre5. Forces and Loads into Rigid Mounts and Supports6. Laser Accurate Alignment of Shafts at Operating Temperature7. High Quality Balancing of Rotating Parts8. Low Total Machine Vibration 9. Correct Torques and Tensions in all Components10. Correct Tools in the Condition to do the Task Precisely11. Only In-specification Parts12. Failure Cause Removal to Increase Reliability13. Proof that Precision is Achieved14. A system to make all the above happen
Number 14 is the one that the vast
majority of companies miss.
They don’t systemize and
standardize the delivery of
precision to their machinery.
119www.lifetime-reliability.com
Precision is a Serious Opportunity
mm/s
7.5
6.25
5.0
3.75
2.5
1.25
0
mm/s
7.5
6.25
5.0
3.75
2.5
1.25
0
Machine Vibration to Maintenance Cost
Machine TypeHighest Velocity
mm/s
Dollars Spent
Last Year
Lowest Velocity
mm/s
Dollars Spent
Last Year
Single Stage Pumps 5.6 $3,200 2.0 $650
Multi Stage Pumps 4.8 $6,100 1.5 $1,100
Major Fans & Blowers 9.0 $900 2.8 0
Single Stage Turbines 3.8 $8,200 1.0 $2,000
Other Machines 7.8 $11,850 3.0 $3,700
120www.lifetime-reliability.com
Precision Domain - A Powerful Business Case
Typical Maintenance Cost $/kW/Year
Typical Maintenance Cost $/kW/Year
0
10
20
30
40
50
Breakdown Maintenance
Condition Based Maintenance
Precision Maintenance
Preventive Maintenance
“For those who do understand the practical, easy-to-implement procedures, they already know that the main results from precision maintenance and machinery improvement are:• Improved machines mean that we can maintain more machines with less people (less non-scheduled - less “putting out fires” - less wrong answers) • Precision maintenance allows all involved, including managers, to have more time to think, to planand to do it right the first time • Precision maintenance not only saves money, but at the same time enables more production outputas the machines considerably increase their run time before failure.”Ralph Buscarello, Update-International, Inc.,Considerations for the Human Aspects to Accomplish or Prevent True Maintenance-Related Machinery Improvement
Source: Update International Inc
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Precision Maintenance and Condition Based Maintenance together effectively reduces failure
Can be dramatically reduced
CBM alone
CBM PLUS Precision Skills
Time
? ? ?
Reduced Frequency of Failure
Reduced Infant Mortality Risk
Co
nd
itio
nal
Pro
bab
ility
of
Failu
re
Thanks to Peter Brown from Industrial Training Associates in Australia for this concept.
Failure Elimination ZoneLife Extension Zone
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Condition Monitoring Strategy
Strategies for Reliability Improvement
Specification Review.
Root Cause Analysis.
Creative Disassembly.
Precision
Maintenance and
Alignment.
Lubrication
Management
Operator training in
CM and basic
maintenance routines
The Machine – four essentials for reliability
DESIGNSuitability for purpose.
Suitability for
environment
ASSEMBLYMachine Assembly
Machine mounting
Shaft alignment
LUBRICATIONSuitability and
adequacy
Cleanliness
Sealing
OPERATIONProper sequencing
and operation
Cleaning
Condition Monitoring Methods
Performance tests
Performance KPI’s
Vibration Analysis
ThermographyOil AnalysisWear Debris Analysis
Visual Observations
Process control
information
Numerous methods available at all stages of the life cycle
Condition Monitor to Confirm Work Standard
Q U A L I T Y C O N T R O L
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PEW SOLUTION: Set and Meet Quality Standards for World Class Reliability
“Only world class standards can produce world class results.”
‘Precise’‘Smooth’‘Tight’‘Dry’‘Clean’‘Cool’‘Repeatable’
Source: Wayne Bissett, OneSteelReliability Manager, Planning and Condition Management Presentation, Sydney, Australia, 2008
124www.lifetime-reliability.com
Idea
C
reat
ion
Ap
pro
val
Det
ail D
esig
n
Pro
cure
men
t
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Co
mm
issi
on
Dec
om
mis
sio
n
Equipment Life Cycle (say 25 years)
~ 10% of Life Cycle (~ 2 years) ~ 85% of Life Cycle (~ 22 years) ~ 5%
Pre
limin
ary
Des
ign
Feas
ibili
ty
Op
erat
ion
Dis
po
sal
PWW Proactively Controls Equipment Health for Outstanding Equipment Reliability
Inspect for
Failure
Inspect for
Failure
Inspect for
Failure
Inspect for
Failure
Inspect for
Failure
Inspect for
Failure
Inspect for
Failure
Inspect for
Failure
Act for Health
Act for Health
Act for Health
Act for Health
Act for Health
Act for Health
Act for Health
Act for Health
Cost to Standard
Design for Standard
Select to Standard
Install to Standard
Inspect for
Standard
Inspect for on-Spec
Inspect for on-Spec
Select to Spec
Set SpecAssume Spec
Assume Spec
Design to Standard
Perf
orm
ance
Plant Wellness Way Health Mon (Feed Forward Control)
Usual Con Mon Practice (Feedback Control)
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Elements of Plant Wellness Asset Management
Optimized Asset Life Cycle Utilization
Supply Chain and Inventory Quality
Management
Defect Elimination EquipmentStrategies
Business-Wide Asset
ManagementStewardship
Precision Work Quality Management
Life Cycle Capital
Management
Useful Performance
Measures
Planning andScheduling for
ReliabilityContinual Reliability
Improvement
Precision Maintenance
Precision Operation
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Plant and Equipment Wellness
=Chance Reduction +
Proactive Maintenance +
Defect Elimination + Precision Systems +Process Step Value
Contribution
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Plant and Equipment Wellness Defined
Is achieved by …
1. Removing variation in outcomes
2. Preventing failure
3. Operational risk control
4. Accuracy controlled work
5. Maximising process step value contribution
“The process of developing and combining engineering assets (the physical factor), financial objectives (the mental factor), human resources (the emotional factor) and organisation culture (the spiritual factor) to produce sustainable, healthy, invigorating and satisfying operating performance.”
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