The only way is mobile

Robert Dossin

Client Solutions Director

SKIM

Drug forecasting in the age

of personalised medicine

The only way is mobile

An innovative approach to drug forecasting –

in-the-moment mobile research enables

collection of robust data close to the

point of prescription

Drug forecasting in the age of personalised medicine

Setting the context…Crowded markets, increasingly diverse patient groups

Setting the context…Crowded markets, increasingly diverse patient groups

Forecast gets

more difficult

No more

generalisation

Conventional methods don’t cut itOver-generalisation or excessive cognitive burden compromise data

Too simple Too complex

- Emotions wear off

- Recall fades

- Answer solely based on rational factors (e.g. hard clinical facts)

+ Based on more softer factors

+ Easier to recall why

+ Answer based on a combination of soft (irrational) and hard (rational) factors

OCCURRENCE MEASUREMENT

OCCURRENCE MEASUREMENT

The only way

is mobile

Account for complexity simplySimplify data collection, but account for market complexity

1 2 3 4

15 minute

online survey

Forms via

Direct mail

Use mobile app

in the moment

Audio recording

after 2 weeks

Simple & quick

to complete

Actual patients, no generalisationCollection of focused, relevant information

Individual, unique & representative data

Valid outcomesCollection of focused, relevant information

16%

43%

17%

13%

38%16%

EGFR+ EGFR+

3%

4%4%

18%

8%

44%

16%

EGFR+

12%

8%

3%

4%4%

16%

6%

37%

6%

EGFR+

Docetaxel mono

Alimta (+/- cis/carbo)

Other chemo

Tarceva (+/- cis/carbo)

Iressa (+/- cis/carbo)

Giotrif mono

Xalkori mono

Clinical Trials

Other

Product A

Product B

Product D

Product E

Core forecast data gatheredRobust forecasting based on high sample of cases

All 4 new

products

launched

Patient share

s

Future Market Future Market

Only A & E

launched

Current Market

7%

5%3%

4%4%

15%

5%

34%

6%

EGFR+

Patient data gives further insightCollection of focused, relevant information

10%4%

13%

25%

11% 9%

17% 26%

25%

22%

25%

18% 21%

42% 34%

50%

67%

38%

21%

31%

31%36%

13% 11% 13%

50%

39%

11% 10% 7%

32%

22%

7%

18%34%

64%

39%35%

21%Product E

Product D

Product B

Product A

Qualitative data provides depthCollection of focused, relevant information

60%

40%

0%

0%

0%

13%

(Very) Good OS/PFS

Good safety profile

Good experience inMelanoma

No Docetaxel: wideapplicability

It is a single agent

Oral formulationadvantageous

17%

7%

0%

0%

0%

0%

33%

17%

0%

0%

0%

0%

33%

20%

23%

10%

13%

0%

Product E Product A Product B Product D

Qualitative data provides depthInsight into drivers of choice

Product E

efficacious

Product D

innovative

Benefits…

Robust data – patient records

without associated problems

Applications in market potential,

segmentation, Tx pathway

Less post-rationalisation,

responses close to point of prescription

Accounts for indications with wide variety of patient types,

or highly individualised treatment (e.g. biomarker-based treatment)

Practical considerations

Some

over-recruitment

needed

Incremental

incentives to

maximise

participation

Not necessarily

cheaper than

current methods

With these answers you can

do the following

Model future

scenariosGenerate

ideas

Update your

product sales

forecast

Impact on communications

Use

data in

comms

80%

Impact on positioning

Clear patient types Differentiation Positioning

increase in

confidence

at every level

Exp

lan

ati

on

Pro

du

ct

Cu

sto

mer

en

gag

em

en

t

Inp

uts

Questions?