The global livestock sector:Trends and health implications
Biennial meeting of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (RSTMH) "Measuring progress” Oxford, 27 September 2014
Timothy Robinson,
William Wint, Giulia Conchedda, Giuseppina Cinardi, Thomas Van Boeckel, Bernard Bett and Marius Gilbert
Overview
• The global livestock sector• Links between livestock and health• Trends and drivers• Mapping livestock distributions and
production systems• Applications for targetting and impact
assessment• Data dissemination• Outlook for measuring progress
The global livestock sector
• Livestock numbers (FAOSTAT 2012)• 1.8 billion cattle and buffalo• 2.5 billion sheep and goats• 1.5 billion pigs• 30.6 billion poultry
• Sector accounts for 30% of the land surface
• 70% of all agricultural land• 8% of human water use
The global livestock sector
Health and nutrition
Poverty and
growth
Climate and natural
resource use
Livestock production
Links between livestock and health
• Poverty• Poor people are less healthy• Livestock contribute to livelihoods and resilience• Economic losses from endemic diseases of
production
• Nutrition• Positive: Hunger, malnutrition, stunting, cognitive
impairment• Negative: Obesity and associated health risks
• Diseases• Food-borne diseases• 39% OIE diseases are zoonotic• Aflatoxin poisoning• Antimicrobial resistance
• Climate change• Reduced food security• Heat waves, floods and droughts• Changing VBD risks
Livelihoods and resilience
• Value of livestock sector c. $1.4 trillion• Account for 40% of agricultural GDP• Employs 1.3 billion people• Provides 17% of calories and 26% of
protein, globally• Provides valuable micronutrients to the
poor• Provides livelihoods for 800 million
poor small-holders• Contribute nutrients and traction for
mixed farming• Utilises primary production of no direct
value for human consumption• Serves as a bank, and insurance against
hard times (e.g. drought)
Otte et al. (2013)
• More than 2 billion are sickened each year from the food they eat
• Millions more die from zoonotic diseases that emerge from, or persist in, agricultural ecosystems
• Diseases recently emerged from animals make up 25% of the infectious disease burden in least developed countries and kill one in ten people who live there
➜ We have proven agricultural interventions which can tackle the diseases associated with agriculture
➜ $25 billion invested in zoonotic disease control would bring benefits worth $125 billion
Diseases related to livestock farming
(Source: Grace 2012)
Nutrition: the double-edged sword
• 17% of calories and 26% of protein• Valuable micronutrients to the poor• We live in a world more than with 800 million
hungry and 165 million stunted children
.. BUT …
• Over one third of all adults across the world – 1.46 billion people – are obese or overweight
• Between 1980 and 2008, the numbers of people affected in the developing world more than tripled, from 250 million to 904 million
• In high-income countries the numbers increased by 1.7 times over the same period
• Diets are changing with income rises in developing countries, shifting from starch to meat, milk, fats and sugar, fruit and vegetables
Livestock are key to both sides
Livestock’s long shadow
• Land degradation• Sector accounts for 30% of the land surface • 70% of all agricultural land• 20% of world’s pastures are degraded through
overgrazing, compaction, and erosion
• Anthropogenic GHG emissions• Sector accounts for 18% (±26%)• Land use change - CO2 (32%)
• Enteric fermentation - CH4 (25%)
• Manure and slurry - N2O (31%)
• Water resource depletion/degradation• Sector accounts for 8% of human water use• Most for irrigation of feed-crops• Water pollution (waste, pesticides, etc.)
• Biodiversity losses• Livestock threaten 306/825 biomes globally
Steinfeld et al. (2006)
Livestock Systems - Environment
➜ ADAPTATION➜ Capacity to respond
to changes
Livestock Systems
Environment
GHG emissions
Climate change
Carbon sequestration
Land use change
Pollution
Water resource availability
Feed availability
Nutrient cycling
Land degradation
Biodiversity
➜ MITIGATION➜ Climate-smart
agriculture
Source: Gerber et al. (2013)
• 14.5% of all anthropogenic GHG emissions• Beef production generates 6 times more GHG emissions per unit of protein
than pork, chicken and eggs
Kil
og
ram
s o
f C
O2e
pe
r k
ilo
gra
m o
f p
rote
inContribution to climate change
The global livestock sector
Health and nutrition
Poverty and
growth
Climate and natural
resource use
Livestock productionPopulation
growth
Policie
s a
nd
in
sti
tuti
on
al
ch
an
ge
Economic
growth
Urb
anis
atio
n
Trade &
marke
ting
Changing diets
Globalisatio
n Climate
change
Feed prices
Energy prices
Transport
Surface temperature projections
Source: IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report
World population projection (UN 2012)
Source: Gerland et al. 2014Year
Tota
l pop
ulati
on (b
illio
ns)
7 Billion
9.5 Billion
11 Billion
Continental population projection
Source: Gerland et al. 2014Year
Tota
l pop
ulati
on (b
illio
ns)
Urbanisation
Projections
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Urban
Rural
Hu
ma
n p
op
ula
tio
n in
th
ou
sa
nd
s
GDP projections
Year
Gro
ss D
omes
tic P
rodu
ct (U
S$ B
n)
Drivers of change
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
Per capita GDP (US$ PPP)
Pe
r c
ap
ita
me
at
co
ns
um
pio
n (
kg
/ye
ar)
USA
Japan
China
India
USA
JapanChina
India
Per capita GDP (US$ ppp)
Per c
apita
mea
t con
sum
ption
(kg/
year
) 2005
Source: FAO 2009
Livestock to 2030 – demand growth
REGION
Beef Milk Mutton Pork Poultry Eggs
Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop.
East Asia and Pacific
8,798 130% 23,765 132% 1,669 58% 28,075 63% 22,522 143% 10,188 45%
China 6,888 132% 15,936 143% 1,537 56% 22,050 54% 14,609 121% 6,810 34%
Eastern Europe and C. Asia
290 11% 4,364 15% 204 40% 112 5% 2,310 108% 684 28%
Latin America and Caribbean
7,302 58% 39,818 72% 239 54% 4,405 100% 14,434 126% 3,246 78%
Middle East and N. Africa
1,929 112% 17,913 111% 1,287 103% 9 52% 6,296 243% 1,799 148%
South Asia 3,367 84% 118,942 126% 1,722 115% 950 160% 11,491 725% 5,947 294%
India 1,338 51% 79,330 119% 588 85% 921 160% 8,865 844% 4,251 280%
Sub-Saharan Africa
3,768 113% 20,939 107% 1,883 137% 1,106 155% 3,235 170% 1,727 155%
Livestock to 2030 – demand growth
Meat consumption is increasing faster in developing countries than in developed countries
Mill
ions
of t
onne
s
Year
Developed
Developing
Disaggregating demand growthGrowth in poultry consumption in China to 2030
Demand growth attributable to population growth
Demand growth attributable to
changing consumption patterns
Demand growth as a function of both
Demand in 2000
Implications for production
• Rural population growth
→ EXPANSION
• Urban population growth• Increasing wealth• Changing consumption patterns
→ INTENSIFICATION
• Demographic and social drivers• Population: + 32% or 9.6 billion people by 2050• Income growth: + 2% per year by 2050• Urbanization: 70% will live in cities by 2050
➜ Growth in demand for animal source foods• + 70% by 2050• + 200 million tonnes of meat
➜ Structural changes in the livestock sector• Shift from ruminant to monogastric• Intensification of production
➜ Impinges on global public goods• Poverty and growth• Climate and natural resources• Health and nutrition
• Integrated approach to socially desirable livestock sector development
• Need reliable data and information to guide policy
The changing livestock sector
Livestock distribution and production
Livestock distribution modelling
Livestock maps by production system
Livestock productionestimates
Global livestockmaps
Production systemsmodelling
Sub-national Livestock data
Herd / production modelling
Data collection, cleaning and geo-registration
Source: Robinson et al (2014)
Livestock distributions
Pigs
Chickens
Ducks
• Updated sub-national statistics• 1km MODIS data (2001-2008)• Standardised to FAOSTAT 2006• New, improved modelling approach• Accuracy estimates (internal)• Cluster computing (SIB)
Cattle distribution (2006)
Source: Robinson et al. (2014)
Mapped based on rural population
Difference(total – extensive)
% backyard
% intensive
Monogastric production systems
Livestock distribution
Extensive production
Intensive production
Chicken systemsO
utpu
t / in
put r
atio
(log
kg-1 s
tock
-1 y
ear-1
)
Log per-capita GDP (US$/person/year)From World Bank data
Chicken systems
Log per-capita GDP (US$/person/year)From World Bank data
Prop
ortio
n of
ext
ensi
vely
rais
ed c
hick
ens
Chicken systems
Extensive chickenproduction
Intensive chickenproduction
Predicting future livestock systems
Log per-capita GDP (US$/person/year)From World Bank data
Prop
ortio
n of
ext
ensi
vely
rais
ed c
hick
ens
2000log GDP per capita c. $ 2.9% extensive c. 83 %
2000
2030
2030log GDP per capita c. $ 3.8% extensive c. 18 %
Chicken production in China
HPAI H5N1 risk prediction
H5N1
Source: Gilbert et al. (2008)
Rift Valley Fever
Source: Bett al. (under development)
Source : Shaw et al. (2014)
Trypanosomosis
Photo credit: Sue Welburn
Economic benefits over 20 years of trypanosomosis removal
Antimicrobial resistance
Source: Van Boeckel et al. (under development)
Cattle Chickens Pigs
Log10 Population Correction Units (Kg of Meat) – OECD countries 2010
Log 10
mg
mic
robi
al
Posterior distributions for estimates of antimicrobial consumption
Antimicrobial resistance
Source: Van Boeckel et al. (under development)
Global antimicrobial use in food animals (mg per 10km pixel)
http://www.livestock.geo-wiki.org
Looking forward
• Improvements to livestock maps• Better disaggregation into production
systems• Better understanding of the key drivers
and how they will shape the livestock sector of the future
• How will this evolving livestock sector affect livelihoods, equality, the environment and public health
• How can we translate the resulting evidence into actionable policies to guide sector development
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