Inaugural Lecture Professor Greg Marsden18 March 2014
“We can't solve problems by
using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.”
Georgios Kollidas ‐Shutterstock.com
testing‐Shutterstock.com
89% of lost time is in urban areas – The Eddington Review
‘New’ Challenges: Climate ChangeSource: Network Rail
Transport contributes 23% of global CO2 emissions ‐ IEA
15 of our largest urban areas will not meet safe air quality standards by 2020
Road fatalities are still the leading cause of death for 5‐19 year olds
28.5% of the UK population do not get 30 minutes moderate exercisePER WEEK!!!
A characterization of Problem Importance
Importance
Time1980s 1990s 2000s 2010‐>
Economy & Congestion
Air quality
Climate Mitigation
Resilience
Safety
The same kind of thinking...
How we thinkabout demand
Infrastructureas main solution
TechnologicalOptimism
The demand for travel
Investment for growth
A New Realism
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1999 congestion Reference Case2031
Infrastructureschemes only
2031
Infrastructureschemes & road
user charges2031
Infrastructureschemes, roaduser charges &
behaviouralchange 2031
Was
ted
vehi
cle
hour
s pe
r yea
r (00
0,00
0s)
Curious Trends
Or more of the same?
Image Courtesy of Professor Phil Goodwin
www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=4iuvUjI0n-I
Technological Optimism
The Role of the State
Image from Johnson et al., 2012
Not connected directly but....
RAC Foundation (2012)
Source: Phil Goodwin
Lifecourse
Seasons
0
50
100
150
200
250
Janu
ary
February
March
April
May
June July
August
Septem
ber
Octob
er
Novem
ber
Decembe
r
Med
ian daily to
tal cou
nt of cyclists
Source: Sustrans
Concluding comments
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