The Future Of Labor Markets And Education
Matt Ferguson, CEO
2
The Most Important Number
2.1
Ranking of Countries by Population 1950-2011
Population of Countries 2050-2100
5
The Future Demographic MapPotential surplus population in working age group (2020)
Labor Shortages and Avenues of Supply
Note: Potential surplus is calculated keeping the ratio of working population (age group 15-59) to total population constantSource: U.S. Census Bureau; BCG Analysis
Demand for technology talent is exploding
Big data driving big demand
Growing IT talent shortage
Two-in-five IT employers (43 percent) have open positions for which they can’t find qualified candidates.
35% of IT employers lost top performers in Q2
28% of IT workers say they are likely to leave their jobs in the next 12 months
Source: CareerBuilder’s 2012 Mid-Year IT Job Forecast, July 2012
Talent pool is shrinking
U.S. Bachelor’s Degree Trends: 1986-2006
Source: National Science Foundation 2008 Report
11
1 Gaps are percent of demand for Shortages, and percent of supply for surpluses. NOTE: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.SOURCE: United Nations Population Division (2010 revision); IIASA; ILO; Global Insight; GDP consensus estimates; country sources for the United States and France; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
By 2020, advanced economies could have too few college-educated workers and too many workers with secondary degreesComparison of projected labor demand and supply, 2020E Million workers
Bridging The Gap
Business can be part of the solution if they get involved and slow down enough
to bring some people with them.
Labor Markets
• Under-supply of skilled labor in the US now getting worse in the future
• This is especially true in IT and healthcare
• If we don’t educate more of our people or allow immigration, these jobs will go to where the people are
• So if education is the key, what is going on there to help?
The Future Of Education
Big breakthroughs happen when what is suddenly possible confronts what is desperately needed.
– Tom Friedman
“ ”
US Venture-Capital and Growth Investments in Education
► 15 ◄
The primary problem
Late in his life, in a letter to a prominent merchant and former U.S. ambassador, Thomas Jefferson touted education as a guardian of the Constitution:
“I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers of the society, but the people themselves: and if we think them not enlightened enough to exercise their control with a wholesome discretion, the remedy is, not to take it from them, but to inform their discretion by education. This is the true corrective of abuses of constitutional power.”
Years later, in 1832, a young Abraham Lincoln promoted the expansion of education in his first public speech:
“Upon the subject of education, not presuming to dictate any plan or system respecting it, I can only say that I view it as the most important subject which we as a people can be engaged in . . . For my part, I desire to see the time when education—and by its means, morality, sobriety, enterprise, and industry—shall become much more general than at present . . .”
And in 1938, on the eve of the world’s most significant conflict, President Franklin Roosevelt spoke of the close link between education and free society. “Democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely,” he said. “The real safeguard of democracy, therefore, is education.”
The Post-Secondary Problem
• It is an access problem because of cost and debt!
• Enrollment fell from 21.4 million to 19.9 million in 2012
• How are we going fill the jobs of the future if we don’t have more people going to college as the nation grows?
• What happens when the jobs cannot find the people they need in a county?
The Post-Secondary Problem
• The cost is increasing very fast!!!
• Average in-state tuition rose to $7,700 in 2012 from $5,900 in 2008
• Private school tuition is
The Post-Secondary Problem
• $1 Trillion dollars of student loans outstanding
• Percentage of undergrads who used federal aid was 57% in 2012 from 47% in 2008
• State aid for students is decreasing
• 7 of 10 undergrads receive state, federal, or institutional assistance in 2012
Online Education Growing Rapidly32% of Students Taking at Least One Online Course, 2011
► 20 ◄
Online Education Quickly Becoming More Accepted
► 21 ◄
Education Being DemocratizedFast Global MOOC (Massively Open Online Course) User Growth
► 22 ◄
The Frontier
The down-side of online
The Frontier
MOOC
The Frontier
SMOC
The Frontier
Georgia Tech
The Frontier
Thunderbird
What we need
• Lower cost• Skills and competencies• Outcomes• Blending new and old
The Difference
Can you quantify it?
Unemployment Rate0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00% 11.14%
3.78%
Less than High School DiplomaCollege Degree or Higher
Source: BLS, Average of April-August 2013, seasonally adjusted.
The Difference
Can you quantify it?
What does it all mean?
1%
The Difference
A better society
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