The Future of Foresight in Technology and Innovation Policy for
Development
Luke GeorghiouUniversity of Manchester
Ricardo Seidl da FonsecaUNIDO
Foresight for developing countries and economies in transition
UNIDO’s Role as a Policy Advisor Promoting Technology Foresight –
Present and Future
Part I
The New Global Setting• Increased financial, trade and investment flows• Rapid and accelerating technological progress;
electronics, ICTs, biotechnology, new materials, fuel cells, nanotechnologies
• New international regulations and standards, trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights
• New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage• Global value chains and production networks emerge in
all types of industries managed by multinational companies and global buyers
Companies and governments in developing countries are even more affected by changes on global setting
Capacity & resources deficiencies in developing countries
• Lack of conducive integrated policy and institutional framework
• Under-developed technology and innovation promotion capabilities
• Short-term thinking and reactive mode action
• System linkage failures and poor coordination
• Disconnection of application of new technologies from socio-economic problems
• Scientific institutions with strong and inflexible disciplinary focus
• Low technology and innovation intensity in industry
• Lack of funding for technology acquisition and diffusion• Lack of human capital and increasing human resources crisis (brain drain,
demography)• Absence of adequate equipment and infrastructure
Response to emerging challenges and opportunities
Redefining policies compatible with global industrial interconnections– Where innovation and technology up-grading are key for
competitiveness and sustainable development
• Connecting national industries to global value chains– Need of global positioning of national industries
• Through comparing performance and drivers
– Up-grading industrial capabilities
• Enhancing industrial governance
• Promoting foresight culture and application of foresight methodologies
National economy boundary
Domestic industrial cluster
Global customers
Large-scale, multi-outlet retailers Small-scale retailers
Global buyers
Buyer and export agents
Local customers Large-scale or multi-plant manufacturers
Small-scale manufacturers
Small-scale suppliers
Global industrial interconnections
Global industries
Industrial Clusters
Connecting national industry to global value chains
Systems
Su
pp
ort S
yste
ms
Support
Governance system
Framework conditions
Global Links
Linking, liberating and learning
FDI and domestic capability building
Import of capital goods
Trade performance
Capabilities
Human Capital
Technology and innovation
Modern infrastructure
Enabling business environment
Regulatory framework
Credit ranking
Infrastructure
Cost of doing business
Cost of production
Governance
Industrial governance
Economic transformation index
Corporate social responsibility
Economic freedom
Performance Performance
GDP per capitaGDP per capita
Competitive industrial Competitive industrial performanceperformance
PovertyPoverty
EnvironmentEnvironment
Gender developmentGender development
Trade diversificationTrade diversification
Global Positioning of National Industries
DriversDrivers Country positionCountry position
First
Quartile
Second
Quartile
ThirdQuartile
Last
Quartile
•Performance Performance XX
•Business EnvironmentBusiness Environment XX
•Technology and InnovationTechnology and Innovation XX
•Global linkagesGlobal linkages XX
•Governance Governance XX
Comparing Performance/Drivers
0
25
50
75
100
Performance BusinessEnvironment
Technology andInnovation
Global Linkages Governance
Up-grading Industrial Capabilities
Industrial Governance
GOVERNMENT
Guides the overall strategy process and focuses on strategic tasks and policy issues
PRIVATE SECTOR
Identify and assess challenges and opportunities and organize collective responses
SUPPORT SYSTEM
Analyze trends
Support clusters
Strengthen capabilities and global links
REGIONS
Promote and Support the development of local clusters
Promotion of a foresight culture and application of the
foresight methodology
• Establishing a transparent structured decision-making process• Introducing a forward-looking attitude• Provoking a creative and motivating decision making environment• Stimulating a participative approach• Enabling mutual learning and strategic dialogue• Reaching consensus around shared visions• Linking technology acquisition and diffusion to wider socio-economic
issues
Development objectivesDevelopment objectives
• Contribute to enhancing the Contribute to enhancing the industrial industrial competitivenesscompetitiveness and expand and expand trading potentialtrading potential
• Foster Foster economic, environmental and social economic, environmental and social benefitsbenefits at national and regional levels at national and regional levels
• Definition of Definition of innovation policies and R&D innovation policies and R&D programmesprogrammes
ComponentsComponents
• Awareness building and foresight cultureAwareness building and foresight culture
• National and Regional / Supra-national capabilitiesNational and Regional / Supra-national capabilities
• Regional and International coordination – Regional and International coordination – Partnerships promotionPartnerships promotion
UNIDO supportUNIDO support
• International Conferences and workshops on International Conferences and workshops on best practices and best practices and methodologiesmethodologies (national, supra-national and corporate) (national, supra-national and corporate)
• Promoting Promoting industry participationindustry participation
• Task force of experts Task force of experts and methodology development for preparation and methodology development for preparation and during foresight exercisesand during foresight exercises
• Conducting foresight projects in selected productive chains and Conducting foresight projects in selected productive chains and countriescountries
• Cooperation in the Cooperation in the post-foresight processpost-foresight process
Tools and methodologiesTools and methodologies
• Book on International Practices on Technology ForesightBook on International Practices on Technology Foresight
• UNIDO Manual on Technology ForesightUNIDO Manual on Technology Foresight
• Web page: Web page: www.unido.org/foresightwww.unido.org/foresight
• CD-ROM collectionCD-ROM collection
• Delphi on-lineDelphi on-line
• TF for Production Chains (national and supra-national)TF for Production Chains (national and supra-national)
Regional or Supra-national dimensionRegional or Supra-national dimension
• Foresight as a tool for Foresight as a tool for plurinational R&D programmesplurinational R&D programmes
• Enhance quality and effectiveness of foresight through Enhance quality and effectiveness of foresight through multi-country networkingmulti-country networking
• Reduce costs by sharing Reduce costs by sharing common activitiescommon activities
• Awareness of global and Awareness of global and regional trendsregional trends
• Joint vision and solutions for Joint vision and solutions for cross-border problemscross-border problems
• Concentration of Concentration of plurinational production chainsplurinational production chains
Foresight Exercise for Production Chains
ProductsProducts Production processesProduction processes
MarketsMarkets
Identification of:
Opportunities for the pluri-national production chains and industries
Required cooperation for technology up-grading
Identification of:
Opportunities for the pluri-national production chains and industries
Required cooperation for technology up-grading
Special characteristics of the UNIDO approach:
Participation of different countries
Plurinational
Complex production chains
Multisectorial
Examples of UNIDO foresight exercises
• SupraSupra--national level national level • National levelNational level• SubSub--national level national level • Company levelCompany level
Regional or Supra-national foresight exercises and activities
Some issues have to be examined on higher than national level or international cooperation is required
• Training Programme on Technology Foresight (2001-7)
• Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, Hungary (2003-7)
• Impact of EU-Accession to Agro-food industry and Automotive industry (2003)
• Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific cost (2005-6)
• Future of the Andean Products: Medicinal Plants (2006-7)
• Future of the Food Industry in 6 CEE countries (2007-9)
National foresight programmes
• Chile - Identify strategic economic and technology sectors
• Brazil - Production chains: textiles, plastics, wood, construction
• Uruguay - Macro-sectors trends: food biotechnology, energy and transportation and logistics
• Venezuela - Application of the results of the TF exercise
• Ukraine – Establish the institutional framework and capability
Sub-national foresight
Specific problems of regions, individual subnational bodies of large countries
• Foresight Programme for Irkutsk – Russian Federation
Corporate Foresight
• Technology Fairs of the Future
• Module 4: Training on Corporate Foresight – BIC Group, Bratislava, Slovakia
What for Technology Foresight in
developing countries?
• Improve Improve decision makingdecision making
• Guide Guide technology choicestechnology choices
• Generate Generate alternative trajectoriesalternative trajectories for future development for future development
• Enhance Enhance learninglearning and improve preparedness for and improve preparedness for emergenciesemergencies
• Motivate Motivate changechange
Future UNIDO efforts
• Support companies in developing countries and economies in transition to set up foresight capabilities
• Establish a connection between the construction of alternative future visions through foresight exercises and the definition of industrial policies and governance framework.
Background and objectives of Technology Foresight
Existing experience and extended mandate for
Foresight
Part II
Status of foresight
• Multiple activities and purposes sharing a name • Content focus
– Priority setting– Identifying ways in which future science and technology could address future
challenges for society and identifying potential opportunities • Structural focus (increasing tendency)
– Reorienting Science & Innovation system– Demonstrating vitality of S & I system– Bringing new actors into the strategic debate– Building new networks and linkages across fields, sectors & markets or
around problems • Content and Structural Goals may be addressed simultaneously
– All above may be at organisational, local, regional, national or supranational levels
• Also foresight carrying input from S&T futures into wider policy domains
Context of move to open innovation
• Convergence of innovation and industrial policy in the context of knowledge economy
• Concept of innovation ecosystem• Foresight role in creating shared strategic vision• Emerging reorientation of innovation policy with
new emphasis upon demand-side policies– Also an industrial policy based upon fostering
clusters, platforms and supply chains– Key driver of development is linkage between local
capabilities and effective demand
Existing experience – in public policy
• Large body of experience logged by EFMN
• Multiple engagement but adaptation and experimentation rather than repetition
• Families of approach– Critical technologies; Delphi; Horizon scanning;
Accession/transition
Existing experience - corporate
• Foresight in business vs Foresight for business• Functions include anticipatory intelligence,
direction setting, priority setting, strategy formulation and innovation catalysis
• Trend to “open foresight” in terms of participation, scope and delineation
• In developing countries particular challenge to build capability and to connect to wider environments
Five generations of ForesightFIRST
GENERATION
Technology forecasts
SECOND GENERATION
Technology and markets
THIRDGENERATION
Technology, markets and the social dimension
FOURTHGENERATION
Distributed Role in Innovation System
FIFTHGENERATION
Structural & broad policy focus
Policy Transfer & Learning in Foresight
• Gains from– Cost reduction through shared efforts– Accessing foresight expertise, training and experience– Accessing broader &/or complementary domain expertise – Addressing transnational problems
• Failure can result from:– Uninformed transfer
• borrowing country has insufficient information about the policy that is being transferred with the result the policy is imperfectly implemented.
– Incomplete transfer• crucial elements of a policy or programme that made the policy or programme a
success are not transferred.
– Inappropriate transfer• insufficient consideration given to social, economic, political and ideological differences
between the borrowings and the transferring country leading to programme failure
• All issues that become more important still when transfer is from developed economy to emerging, transition or developing
– Role for UNIDO in helping policy transfer to be contextualised and informed by previous relevant experience
Extending the Mandate – structural focus
• Overcoming market and system failures• Microeconomic climate for innovation• Addressing deficiencies in firms
– Resources– Incentives– Capabilities– Opportunities
• Also use foresight to address deficiencies in system capacity for strategic development
• Foresight as balancing and linking mechanism
Foresight for policy vs Foresight as policy
• For policy– Use as a tool to inform
and develop policy in any area
– Also for “joining up” policy across domains
– In our domain normally areas of policy with a strong science/ research input
• As policy– Use as an instrument
to implement budgetary, structural or cultural changes
– In our domain as an instrument of research and/or innovation policy
Strategic behaviour
• Impact of foresight involves interaction of foresight outputs with the strategic behaviour of policy and economic actors
• Two way lesson– Possibility to use as means to influence
corporate/business strategy– Need for foresight design to build in interface with
existing strategic processes where possible
Emerging role for foresight in New Wave Demand-side innovation policy
• Need to understand foresight in context of range of tools for innovation policy and how it can interact with, strengthen and be strengthened by combinations with other policies
• Particular opportunities in demand-oriented innovation policies– Clusters and technology platforms
built on base of common visions– Public procurement for innovative
goods and services again driven by shared visions
Conclusion (1) Extended mandate
• Present UNIDO role in foresight continues to be valid
• Opportunity for extended mandate – Promotion of foresight as instrument for
innovation policy and as a means of bringing S&I to bear on wider policy domains
– Support for UNIDO in delivering strategy of productivity enhancement for social advance
Conclusion (2)- Link to demand side innovation policy
• Promotion of foresight in new wave demand side innovation policy
• Need to engage users and regulators as well as developers of technology
• Fast track development of open innovation system• Address areas such as clusters, platforms and
procurement policy• Implication that UNIDO needs to build capacity for
innovation-linked foresight in range of sectoral ministries and agencies– Health, eco-innovation, food, housing, transport
Conclusion (3) – Situating foresight
• Combine elements of 4 and 5G foresight– Shift from monolithic national to distributed multi-level
embedment in innovation system– Supporting firms in knowledge acquisition
• Also recognise role for foresight in restructuring innovation system
• UNIDO instruments largely unchanged but content extended to broader range of actors and themes within productive sectors
• Partnerships for foresight as core for knowledge based economic initiatives– Working with other international agencies
Conclusion (4) – and broader support for UNIDO activities
• Preparing global forum and technical cooperation programmes
• Incorporate technology trends work in the initiatives such as biotechnology, technology parks and centres, ICT, investment promotion, critical technologies for Africa
• Working with other technology related Branches of UNIDO – Agro-Industries and Sectoral Support, Private Sector
Development, Trade Capacity-building, Energy and Cleaner Production, Research and Statistics as well as the Regional Bureaus and field offices.