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I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
The Future of Food
Scenarios and the Effects on Natural Resource Use in Agriculture
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions DiscussionIntroduction
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Scope
• What are the global and regional consequences, with respect to natural resource use in agriculture, for four food scenarios evaluated for the year 2050?
Introduction
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Scope
• What are the global and regional consequences, withrespect to resource use in agriculture, for four foodscenarios evaluated for the year 2050?
OECD90
REF
ASIA
ALM
Introduction
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Scope
• Commodity groups
– Cereals
– Fruit
– Roots and tubers
– Pulses
– Oil crops
– Sugar crops
– Vegetables 93% of global kcal
– Meat
• Beef
• Pork
• Poultry
– Eggs
– Milk
Includes feed
Introduction
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Scenario Methodology
• What if…?
• Not The Truth or The Future
• Variety
• ConsistencyA2
B1 B2
A1
RegionalizationGlobalization
Environment
Economy
Methodology
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
• Population
• Economic Development
• Policy
• Technological Development
• Diet
Driving Forces
Methodology
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Meat Consumption & Economic Development
2200 US$ 9700 US$
17 kg
77 kg
Keyzer, 2005
Methodology
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Food System Model
Virtual Resource Content
Methodology
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Virtual Resource Content
• Input requirements
– Land: ton/ha (yield)
– Water: m3/ton
– Fertilizer: kg/ton (N, P2O5, K2O)
• Specified for:
– Commodity groups
– Regions
Methodology
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Scenario Study
2900 kcal 2900 kcal
2800 kcal 2800 kcal
economy
environment
regionalizationglobalization
Methodology
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
What if..
• …there is a global shift to a Western diet?
• …regions have to be self-sufficient?
• …we all become vegetarian?
• …we shift to low-input management?
Methodology
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Apparent Consumption and Intake
Results
2005 intake
2005 apparent consumption
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Production (ton/year)
Results
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Land Use (ha/year)
Results
VS+S+MS
VS+S
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Land Use
Results
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Water Use3
Moderate water stress
Critical water stress
Results
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Water Use in A2 – Full World
OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
3
Results
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Fertilizer Use – N
Years of Potassium A1: 2 A2: 66B1: 100 B2: 135Years of PhosporousA1: 55 A2: 121B1: 254 B2: 211
Results
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Scenario Conclusions
• A1 – Affluent World
LAND WATER FERTILIZER
• A2 – Full World
LAND WATER FERTILIZER
• B1 – Vegetarian World
LAND WATER FERTILIZER
• B2 – Low-Input World
LAND WATER FERTILIZER
Conclusions
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Conclusions
• Strong negative correlation between land and fertilizer use
• Water use problematic
• Not enough resources to feed the global population a Western diet
Conclusions
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Recommendations
• Virtual Fertilizer Content & Organic Agriculture
• Trade & Water Use
• Animal product consumption & culture and religion
Conclusions
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Discussion
Would you change your diet?
Discussion
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