The Futility of reducing Man-made CO2 as the means to Control
Climate Ed Hoskins MA (Cantab) BDS (Lond) Futility of Man-made
Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 1
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Global Warming / Climate Change / Global Climate Disruption
With this nomenclature any adverse weather event can be ascribed to
Climate Change and thus be blamed on Man-kind. So the Climate
Change Alarmists can now back every horse whichever way it runs.
Nonetheless all their policy recommendations are only ever intended
to control excessive Global Overheating by the reduction of
Man-made CO2 emissions. This is the BLINDING PARADOX of the
Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming position. Futility of
Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 2
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Contents Recent of worldwide CO2 emissions Modelling the scale
of future emissions till 2100 Assessing the Actual Temperature
effect of Man- made CO2 But the effect of CO2 as a Greenhouse gas
becomes ever more marginal with greater concentration Actual
temperature effects Justifying actions to reduce CO2 emissions,
particularly in Europe / UK / Australia. Futility of Man-made
Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 3
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Recent worldwide CO2 emissions Futility of Man-made Climate
Control by limiting CO2 emissions 4
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In October 2010 Professor Richard Muller made the dilemma for
all those who hope to control global warming clear. In essence he
said: The Developing World is Not Joining-in with CO2 emission
reductions nor does it have any intention of doing so. The failure
of worldwide action negates the unilateral action of any individual
Nation. Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2
emissions 5
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The current status 2010: Nations grouped according to CO2
emissions policies emissions 2010 % population 2010 Legally
committed EU (27) AU NZ13.6%7.6% Not Joining-in United
States18.5%4.5% RU JP CA13.5%4.4% China25.1%19.3% India5.1%17.5% KR
IR ZA MX SA BR ID10.9%10.7% Rest of World (200+ Nations)13.2%36.0%
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The graph shows: the rapid escalation of Chinese emissions
since the year 2000, this continues apace. acceleration of
emissions from India, which are set to grow substantially albeit
from a low base. the inexorable growth of emissions from developing
economies growing from a low base in 1965. a levelling off of
developed economies but with an uptick in 2010 recovering from
recession. Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2
emissions 9
Slide 10
The growth of emissions from developing countries including
China, India and other underdeveloped Nations continues. China is
predominant and India is following on, probably at a greater future
rate but to a lesser absolute extent by 2100. These increases in
emissions will totally negate any efforts, however strenuous, in
the Developed World, where emissions have significantly stabilised
already, even in the USA. Futility of Man-made Climate Control by
limiting CO2 emissions 10
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The effect of the maximum actions on CO2 emissions. Comparing
the current emission rates with the IPCC stated temperature rise
from added emissions of 1.2C by 2100, (1.8C business as usual
Scenario B1 versus 0.6C if all world-wide emissions had stopped in
2000): only ~14% of the worlds current 2010 emissions (EU (27) AU
NZ), are making any progress = ~ -0.168C the maximum they might
achieve is a 30% emissions reduction = ~ -0.0504C The UK
contributes only 11% of the emissions in this group amounting to ~
-0.00554C by 2100. Australia contributes even less and its actions
might amount to ~ -0.00355C by 2100. Futility of Man-made Climate
Control by limiting CO2 emissions 11
Slide 12
So adherent Nations have isolated themselves by their own
self-immolating actions on the basis that it is their duty to set
an example for the world. However their actions alone can only ever
give virtually undetectable reductions of World temperature, and
the rest of the world is not listening. So the hysteria about
catastrophic global warming is the creature of a limited number of
developed Western Nations, whose Governments are persuaded by the
Catastrophic Global Warming / Climate Change / Climate Disruption
agenda. Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2
emissions 12
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Any effort at CO2 reduction by the few Joining-in and
participating Nations is therefore folly. The sooner this is
realised, in spite of the huge academic and monetary capital
already invested, the sooner the Western world can be released from
its self-imposed, economically destructive straightjacket. Futility
of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 13
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Modelling future CO2 emissions: assessing future emissions
growth by Nation groups. Futility of Man-made Climate Control by
limiting CO2 emissions 14
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estimated emissionsestimated %estimated % multiplier by 2100
CO2 emissions 2100 population 2100 EU (27) AU NZ 1.05.4%6.5% (1.0 =
Business as Usual) United States1.28.5%3.8% RU JP CA1.36.0%3.7%
China4.530.5%18.7% India10.014.1%18.9% KR IR ZA MX SA BR
ID4.014.0%9.3% Rest of World (200+ Nations) 5.021.5%39.2% Futility
of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 15
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This speculative data set results in: cumulative re-absorbed
valuesm tonnesm tonnesppm v difference up to 18502,190,638
2,190,638280 1850 2010863,789 3,054,427390110 2010-2100 Business as
Usual1,336,653 4,391,080560170 2010-2100 extra emissions1,476,685
5,867,765750190 Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting
CO2 emissions 16
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This estimated data set shows: China as a whole approaching the
CA RU JP emissions level by 2100, even with its substantially
larger population. India with a larger population approaches EU
levels and the major developing nations may well surpass those
levels. The rapidly developing Nations keep pace with China, and
overtake the no growth Joining-in Nations. The rest of the
developing world still lags behind but is approaching the business
as usual level of the EU group of Nations taking action on CO2.
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Slide 21
The reality puts the participation of the Joining-in Nations,
EU (27) AU NZ, into stark perspective showing the insignificance of
their efforts to reduce emissions in the context of the growth of
emissions from the developing world. They reduce down from ~14% of
world emissions in 2010 to ~5% by 2100. And of course if they do
actually achieve any real CO2 reductions that will diminish the
significance of their efforts even further. Futility of Man-made
Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 21
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Assessing the Actual Temperature effect of Man-made CO2
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The IPCC asserts that all the recorded warming since 1850
(~0.7C) and that it is wholly due to Man- made CO2. But there is a
wider range of published and peer- reviewed opinion that differs on
the actual level of the impact of Man-made CO2 in the atmosphere.
One well-accepted view is provided by CDIAC, the Carbon Dioxide
Information Analysis Centre of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).
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CDIAC figures can be transposed into parts of the 33.0C total
Greenhouse Effect, as follows: Water Vapour ~95% of effect ~31.35C
All Greenhouse Gases ~5%~1.65C Carbon Dioxide at 390 ppmv
~75%~1.24C Natural CO2 ~86% ~1.07C (50% emissions since 1850
Man-made) Current Worldwide Man-made CO2 ~14% of 390 ppm v ~0.17C
Other Greenhouse gases ~25%~0.41C Natural~0.29C Man-made~0.12C
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The CDIAC value of ~0.17C is about 25% of the rise since 1850,
equating to 50 / 50 Man-made / Natural CO2 and 50% due to recent
higher solar activity. On the other hand, Gavin Schmidt of NASA
GISS, one of the topmost scientists involved in the Catastrophic
Anthropogenic Global Warming cause, in a recent paper clearly
asserts that: 75% of the Greenhouse effect is attributable to water
vapour and clouds 100% of the increase in CO2 emissions since 1850
(110 ppm v ) is Man-made Following these numbers through and
accounting for the effect of other Greenhouse gases results in a
Man-made temperature rise between 1850 and 2010 of 2.21 C. Futility
of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 26
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As the reported temperature increase since 1850 is only ~0.7C
in total, surely Schmidts assertion has to be in error. He clearly
did not carry out the trivial sums that would have shown him that
his figures exaggerate Man-made influence on temperature by more
than 3 times the actual accepted level of warming since 1850. So
Gavin Schmidt, a premier scientist supporting the concept of
Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming, markedly underestimates
the influence of water vapour and clouds. Futility of Man-made
Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 27
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But the effect of CO2 as a Greenhouse gas is ever more marginal
with greater concentration Futility of Man-made Climate Control by
limiting CO2 emissions 28
Slide 29
Remarkably, IPCC Published reports, (TAR3), actually
acknowledge that the effective temperature increase caused by
growing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere radically
diminishes with increasing concentrations. This information is in
their report, but it is well disguised from any lay reader,
(chapter 6. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: section 6.3.4
Total Well- Mixed Greenhouse Gas Forcing Estimate). Even so the
effectiveness of CO2 as a greenhouse gas is well understood in the
climate science community to reduce logarithmically as
concentrations increase, according to the Beer Lambert Law.
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Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions
30 CO2 effectiveness as GHG expressed as percentages
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CO2 effectiveness as GHG expressed in C Futility of Man-made
Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 31
Slide 32
Although the IPCC accepts that this crucial effect exists, the
UN panel certainly does not emphasise it. Like the Medieval Warm
Period, that they tried to eliminate with the Hockey Stick graph in
2001, the panel knows that wide public knowledge of this fact would
be utterly detrimental to their primary message. The logarithmic
diminution effect of CO2 as a GHG is the reason why there was no
runaway greenhouse warming in earlier eons, when CO2 levels were
known to be at levels of several 1,000s pmm v. Futility of Man-made
Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 32
Slide 33
So the IPCC does not explain the devastating consequences of
the logarithmic diminution effect in their Summary for Policy
Makers. Thus the IPCC is entirely misleading in its central claim
for Policy Makers, when they say: "Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal. Most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the
observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations."
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Slide 34
Thus any, unquestioning, policy making reader is unequivocally
lead to assume that all increasing CO2 concentrations are
progressively more harmful because of their escalating Greenhouse
impact. THIS IS NOT SO. From the present concentration of
atmospheric CO2 at ~390 ppm v, there is only ~12% of the
effectiveness of CO2 as a Greenhouse Gas remaining, even if
emissions increase indefinitely. Futility of Man-made Climate
Control by limiting CO2 emissions 34
Slide 35
Even if CO2 emissions increase indefinitely from the present
position of a atmospheric CO2 concentration of ~390 ppm v, there
can only be ~12% of the effectiveness of CO2 as a Greenhouse Gas
remaining. As the further effectiveness of CO2 is now limited to
only ~12%, the widely held alarmist policy ambition to constrain
Man-made temperature increase to 2C could never be attained,
however much more Man-made CO2 was emitted. So that much vaunted
policy ambition has to be nonsense. Futility of Man-made Climate
Control by limiting CO2 emissions 35
Slide 36
Calculating actual temperature effects accounting for the
diminution in effectiveness of CO2 with increasing concentrations
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Slide 37
Accounting for the diminution effect the actual temperature
reductions achievable by the actions of the Joining-in Nations
using the CDIAC estimates of temperature effects are as follows
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Slide 38
These figures can be compared with the IPCC version which
ignores the diminution effect shown below: Futility of Man-made
Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 38
Slide 39
In either case the calculated achievable values are in the
range of few hundredths to a few thousandths of a degree
Centigrade. As the margin of error for temperature measurements is
about 1C, these miniscule levels the temperature effects for the
efforts of the Joining-in nations are marginal, immeasurable and
irrelevant. This is especially so as these minute changes have to
be seen in the context of normal daily temperature variations at
any a single location of 10C to 20C and which can usually be as
much as 40C to 50C in the course of a whole year. Futility of
Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 39
Slide 40
The IPCC carefully ignores the radical reducing effect of
increasing concentrations of CO2 in its summaries and does not
admit that there remains only about 12% of the effectiveness of CO2
as a greenhouse gas from the current level of ~390ppm v, for
whatever increase in CO2 concentration. So any unquestioning,
policy maker has certainly been lead to assume that all increasing
CO2 concentrations are progressively more harmful for temperature
increase because of their escalating Greenhouse impact. Futility of
Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 40
Slide 41
Under the influence of the IPCC statements, much has been made
by policy makers that it is essential to limit Man-made Global
warming to less than 2C. However if the diminution effect is taken
into account, whichever assessment of likely temperature increase
from additional CO2 is used, that additional 2C could never be
attained by any Man-made additions of CO2 to the atmosphere however
large. Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2
emissions 41
Slide 42
The modelled increase of CO2 from 390 to 750 ppm v till a 2100
maximum using the CDIAC estimate of gives a further potential
increase worldwide of only ~0.16C and beyond that value only about
2%, a potential addition of only ~0.03C remains. Futility of
Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 42
Slide 43
Even if CO2 emissions increase indefinitely from the present
position of a atmospheric CO2 concentration of ~390 ppm v, there is
only ~12% of the effectiveness of CO2 as a Greenhouse Gas
remaining. As the further effectiveness of CO2 is now limited to
only ~12%, the widely held alarmist / political ambition to
constrain Man-made temperature increase to 2C could never be
attained, however much more Man-made CO2 was emitted. Futility of
Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 43
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Justifying actions to reduce CO2 emissions: particularly in the
EU(27) and Australia Futility of Man-made Climate Control by
limiting CO2 emissions 44
Slide 45
The question has to be asked as to whether the efforts of the
few Joining-in Nations to set an example to the world can ever be
judged as worthwhile, considering the self- inflicted economic
damage already occurring and certainly planned in future. This is
all for the sake of reductions in World temperature that are
undetectable and immeasurable. Or rather should their efforts at
controlling CO2 emissions be regarded as the most pointless policy
ever contemplated by developed and previously rational governments?
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The marginal effects of any action on reducing CO2 emission by
a small minority of Nations must raise the following question: Is
it possible that the massive efforts and extreme costs already
being expended and planned and the immense risks to energy security
anticipated for the future could ever be justified to partially
reduce the Man-made CO2 emissions by a limited number of Western
Nations for miniscule and doubtful effects on world temperature?
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Slide 47
Are controls on CO2 emissions a rational way to save the World?
and What precisely is the World being saved from? a warmer world
with higher levels of CO2 is probably a rather better, more
productive world, with longer growing seasons and with less violent
weather. Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2
emissions 47
Slide 48
And as the remedies proposed are so vast and so onerous: Where
are the full cost benefit analyses? Where is the open minded due
diligence? Have participating governments robust contingency plans
for when their lights go out? Do they understand that the world has
already entered a period of natural cooling? Futility of Man-made
Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 48
Slide 49
The political justification is weak, just one example, Jill
Duggan, European Commissions National Expert on Carbon Markets and
Climate Change and ex head of Britains International Emissions
Trading. The competence and level of understanding of the
administrators driving the global warming alarm became clear when
she stated: she did not know what the costs of European action on
Carbon Dioxide were nor how much effect European efforts would have
on world temperature. Futility of Man-made Climate Control by
limiting CO2 emissions 49
Slide 50
Prof David MacKay author of Sustainable Energy - without the
hot air and now the Chief Scientific Advisor to the UK Department
of Energy and Climate Change justifies UK action on CO2 saying:
Well, that's "the tragedy of the commons. You can always argue that
it is fine for you to be antisocial because you are just one
person. But there are other views of ethics, leadership, pollution.
London doesn't have smog any more, and that's thanks to all 7
million people all following the lead of whoever went first.
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Slide 51
As the UK is still uniquely wedded to its costly policies
supporting unreliable and uneconomic renewable energy via its 2008
Climate Change Act, the outcome in the UK is an unacceptable future
for energy supply. These policies are being pursued regardless of
the costs, their ineffectiveness and the massive risk they cause to
energy security, as can be seen in the government published graph
below. Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2
emissions 51
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Slide 53
So the lights in the UK could go out any winter soon, after the
riots of August 2011 imagine the chaos that will ensue. Futility of
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Slide 54
Steve Holiday the Chief Executive of the National Grid has
already clearly said: Era of constant electricity at home is
ending. This has to be seen as the ultimate triumph of the Green
movements. It is the retrograde step that they have always yearned
for. But Mark Lynas, a formerly committed Green Activist said: Our
environment and energy problems are solvable - but can be tackled
only with pragmatism, rather than ideological wishful thinking. You
mustn't believe the lies of the Green zealots. I should know - I
was one. Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2
emissions 54
Slide 55
Even the Huffington Post has come to the following realisation:
Global leaders should give up their fixation on cutting carbon
dioxide emissions. Significant cuts will not happen voluntarily
anywhere. Instead, leaders should be focusing on providing as much
cheap, abundant, dispatchable power to their citizens as possible.
And to make certain political leaders understand the need to
eradicate energy poverty. Like it or not, the world economy runs on
hydrocarbons And that will remain true for many decades to come.
Countries like Vietnam, China, and India, will never agree to any
tax or limit on carbon dioxide. Futility of Man-made Climate
Control by limiting CO2 emissions 55
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And George Osborne UK Chancellor of the Exchequer seems to be
beginning to appreciate the point: We're not going to save the
planet by putting our country out of business. Even the European
union is having second thoughts: "It has to be seen clearly that
there are risks associated to unilateral EU action. There is a
trade-off between climate-change policies and competitiveness.
Europe cannot act alone in an effort to achieve global
decarbonization, A classic and interesting comment was recently
made in The Register. It could not be put more succinctly: Binning
green power would be like printing money - without inflation.
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http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle800.do?categoryId=9037130&contentId=7068669
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