Déjà Vu All Over Again

The Forty-Year Cycle in Culture and Society

Jim Lee, APFTrends BreakfastUniversity & Whist Club

History seldom repeats itself, but it usually rhymes… Mark Twain

Why are we reliving the 1970’s?

Speaking as a GenXer

Economic Discontent

Current

1970’s 1930’s

Unpopular Presidents

Current

1970’s 1930’s

Crafting, Artisanal Everything

Current

1970’s 1930’s

Folk Music

Current

1960’s & 1970’s 1930’s

Social Experimentation

Current

1970’s 1930’s

What about the 1890’s?

What about the 1890’s?

1920’s1960’s2000’s

1930’s1970’s2010’s

1950’s1990’s2030’s

1940’s1980’s2020’s

Values and Expression40-45 Year Cycle

ExternalInternal

Relational

Material

• Internal/Relational:  The excesses of the previous decades are brought into question at an individual level.  Real estate values peak.  The social fabric unravels and there is a shifting focus towards social reform.  Young adults become less conformist and more counter-cultural. (1920’s, 1960’s, 2000’s)

• External/Relational:  This is a period of public unrest and skepticism.  Standards of living are redefined.  The economy is in a state of prolonged stagnation, yet major progress is made in terms of providing for social equality and environmental sustainability. Institutions eventually hit the “reset” button, providing a foundation for new growth and prosperity. (1930’s, 1970’s, 2010’s)

• External/Material:  Is a period of rising optimism. It is typically a “golden age” period for conservatism and business.  There is privatization, de-regulation and a less involved government. (1940s, 1980’s, 2020’s)

• Internal/Material:  The focus shifts somewhat towards the family.  Politics are still conservative, and the economy has stabilized into a period of predictable economic growth. Wealth and power becomes more concentrated.  Eventually, success leads to excess – leading to speculative bubbles. (1950’s, 1990’s, 2030’s)

• Values: Material vs. Relational

• Expression: Internal vs. External

Values & Expression Cycle

Relational• Declining social mood• Reform• Social Capital• Uncertainty• Counter-culture• Localism/Isolationism

Values Cycle

Material• Rising social mood• Growth• Financial Capital• Confidence• Conformity• Globalism/

Aggression

Expression Cycle

Internal• Thought• Family• Nesting

External• Action• Individual• Exploration

Arrogance/

ShockAnger

Confidence

Optimism

The Socionomic Connection

Declining Social Mood

Rising Social Mood

ActionContemplation

A Possible Future – Previewing the 2020’s

Politics: Smaller, more limited government. Rise of a “big man.”

Science: Massive innovations coming to market based on AI, smart robotics, ubiquitous computing, personalized genomics, energy storage technologies. Return of ambitious science projects.

Culture: Careful re-examination of male gender roles (to reach fruition by 2030’s). Greater pressures toward conformity. Designers as brands. Digital nomads, urbanization, and the continued rise of status cities.

Entertainment: More goofball humor and fewer “dark” themes. Kawaii gets big. Increasingly, the audience chooses outcomes of stories.

Economy: New bull market after restructuring (repudiation?) of the U.S. debt. Focus on emerging markets for growth.

Thinking about Tomorrow

(Koans for Futurists)• What is work without employment?

• What is the role of men in a culture with less need for risk-taking, physicality, or territoriality?

• How does one conform within a post-modern society?

• What is rare within an economy of abundance?

• What does it mean to be human?

DISCLOSURES

• Strategic Foresight Investments LLC ("StratFI") is a Registered Investment Advisor ("RIA"), registered in the State of Delaware. StratFI provides asset management and related services for clients nationally.

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