The Debt Crisis and the World Economy Nick Kounis Head Macro
Research Athens, 17 October 2012 Marine Money Greek Forum
Slide 2
2 Global PMI index Source: ABN AMRO Group Economics Introducing
the Stop-Go Recovery
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3 Euro crisis has been the main culprit S
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4 Foreign holdings of Spanish and Italian government debt,
share in total, % Source: National central banks Foreign investors
running for the exit!
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55 ECB President Draghi to the rescue The ECB is ready to do
whatever it takes believe me it will be enough
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6 The Draghi effect: bond markets 2-Y government bond yield
spread over Germany, % Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
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77 Spanish PM Rajoy: Im still thinking about it!
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88 Big systemic risks to the euro have been reduced Source:
EBA, ABN AMRO Group Economics Eurozone big bank exposure to
sovereign debt (% tier 1 capital)
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9 The Draghi effect: equity markets Index Source: Thomson
Reuters Datastream
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10 Signs of bottoming out in global industrial cycle, but % yoy
Source: Website Fraport, Thomson Reuters Datastream
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11 Fixing the euro will take time
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12 Budget cuts, joblessness will weigh on eurozone growth 3%
GDP cuts in 2012-13 Unemployment: 11.3%
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13 Muddling through remains main scenario for euro
17 Fed Chairman Bernanke has taken a bold step USD 85bn a month
!!
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18 Impact of QE: equities Index Source: Thomson Reuters
Datastream, ABN AMRO GE QE-1 QE-2 QE-3Twist
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19 Impact of QE: commodities Index Source: Thomson Reuters
Datastream, ABN AMRO GE QE-1QE-2 TwistQE-3
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20 The debt crisis across the Atlantic: the US fiscal
cliff
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21 Global Economic Forecasts Source: ABN AMRO GE
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22 Commodity Price Forecasts Source: ABN AMRO GE
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