The Coming Age of Water
Dr. Anthony Turton
Director: TouchStone Resources (Pty) Ltd
www.anthonyturton.com
© AR Turton, 2009
Layout of Presentation• What is the current status of water in South Africa?
– The Thunder Graph• How will this affect business?• What we need to do about it to ensure stable
economic growth in future.– Water as a Stock vs Flux debate.
• Call for the establishment of a Collaborative Business Partnership in Water.
• Conclusion
South Africa’s Resource Constraints to Development are ...
• Energy ...
• Water ...
• Our energy constraint is defined by water.
• The sulphur cycle is of particular importance.
• In a future scenario where we burn more coal, but possibly with less precipitation, what will happen to acid rain?
• Water quality is a national problem ...
What is the Current Status of Water in South Africa?
• 1966 Commission of Enquiry into Water Matters made some startling predictions.
• This Commission elevated the management of water to a national strategic level.
• This was mostly ignored when the National Water Act was promulgated.
• Today we face significant water constraints to our national economic growth.
• DWAF is being restructured out of functional existence to our combined peril.
• This could have unintended consequences.
Years
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
20
40
80
60
Wat
er D
eman
d (1
09 m3 y
r1 )(b
illio
n m
³/yr
¹) Highest water use estimate
Lowest water use estimate
Total surface + groundwater resources (accessible with new technology)
Total surface resources (existing technology)
Q x F = Y Q = volume of water
available at national level
at a high assurance of
supply
Y = volume of water needed
at national level at a high
assurance of supply to
sustain the economy
F = Flux value of water
Flux value of water = 1.7
38 x 1.7 = 64.6
Source: Pete Ashton, CSIR Science Scope (3)1 (2008:19)
38 x .8 = 30.4
This is our problemNote: SA’s available National Stock is ± 33
Km³, which is 66% of the MAR (50 Km³).
So we need to understand the water resource management problematique in the context of salt loads.
It is not water scarcity that destroyed ancient irrigation civilizations, but rather a salts build-up.
Managing salts-loads is a technical challenge, but it also poses business risk for a variety of reasons
Transboundary River Basins in AfricaAs a result of our colonial legacy…
Continental Africa has 47 sovereign states…
Sharing 63 transboundary river basins…
Covering 61% of the surface area…
In which 77% of the human population live…
Containing 93% of the total water…
Precipitation
Evaporation
Streamflow
Africa’s fundamental development constraint is the conversion of precipitation (MAP) to runoff (MAR).
Which means that we need a combination of infrastructure and ingenuity to create Assurance of Supply.
What is Southern Africa’s Fundamental Water Resource Management Problem?
© O’Keeffe et al
Because we have insufficient base-flow for reliable development so we need to build
storage and transfer infrastructure
And this is the basic problem
Southern Africa in general has the lowest conversion ratio of MAP to
MAR in the world
High Variability Reduces Hydrological Security
Exacerbating our fundamental development constraint further…
Natural variability in streamflow reduces hydrological security
Hydrological insecurity.
100200300400500600700800900
10001250150020002500
Mean AnnualRainfall (mm)
0 250 500 km
NAMIBIA
BOTSWANA
SOUTHAFRICA
ZAMBIA
ZIMBABWE
ANGOLA
D. R. C. TANZANIA
MOZABIQUE
SWAZILAND
LESOTHO
MALAWI
= 860 mm isohyet
= World average rainfall
MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL
SADC Average Annual Rainfall = 948 mm
© Pete Ashton
The three most economically developed countries in SADC are on the “wrong” side of the global average.
Water allocation in those three countries has reached a point where future economic development is potentially constrained.
In South Africa, 97.3% of the streamflow was allocated at a high assurance of supply by 2004.
So we are on a transition from IWRM to Integrated Salts Management instead. With water service
delivery now becoming a major (and sensitive) issue.
We have simply reached the limit of the resource so what we do next will determine our future.
Cuvelai
Kunene
Zambezi
Limpopo
Pungué
Buzi
Save-Runde
Orange Maputo
Incomati
Umbeluzi
Okavango/Makgadikgadi
Congo
Nile
Lake Chad
Namibia
Botswana
SouthAfrica
Congo (DRC)
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Lesotho
Swaziland
Malawi
Mozambique
Angola
250
500
0
Kilometres
N
Rovuma
South Africa and Zimbabwe are listed amongst the top
twenty countries in the world in terms of the
numbers of dams built (WCD 2000)
Dams and hydraulic
inf’structure in Southern
Africa
© P Ashton
We have simply built as many dams as we can, trapping ± 66% of the current streamflow, and we cannot build too many more for a variety of technical reasons.
So previous solutions are not future solutions – we now need to become creative and do something else – which is where our current non-investment in ingenuity will become a business risk.
Cuvelai
Kunene
Zambezi
Limpopo
Pungué
Buzi
Save-Runde
Orange Maputo
Incomati
Umbeluzi
Okavango/Makgadikgadi
Congo
Nile
Lake Chad
Namibia
Botswana
SouthAfrica
Congo (DRC)
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Lesotho
Swaziland
Malawi
Mozambique
Angola
250
500
0
Kilometres
N
Rovuma
WATER TRANSFER
S IN SOUTHERN
AFRICA
Existing water transfer scheme
Proposed new water transfer scheme
© Pete Ashton
This represents a substantial investment in both infrastructure and ingenuity, converging to
provide a high Assurance of Supply
on which future economic growth and
political stability is predicated, but poses
new risks not yet being addressed.
Heavily Utilized Water
Resources in Southern
AfricaWater resources approaching “closure” – very little left to allocate for off-channel uses
Water resources under increased pressure – need to ensure closer co-operation with neighbouring states
Cuvelai
Cunene
Zambezi
Limpopo
Pungué
Buzi
Save-Runde
Orange Maputo
Incomati
Umbeluzi
Okavango/Makgadikgadi
Congo
Nile
Lake Chad
Namibia
Botswana
SouthAfrica
Congo (DRC)
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Lesotho
Swaziland
Malawi
Mozambique
Angola
250
500
0
Kilometres
N
Rovuma
© Pete Ashton
How will this impact Business??• If we regard water as a stock, then we are in
serious trouble because by 2004 we had already allocated 98% of the national resource at a high assurance of supply level (National Water Resource Strategy).
• BUT, if we regard water as a flux then we can continue to grow or national economy in a sustainable way.
• This will need a fundamental paradigm shift by all significant stakeholders.
Water as a Stock
Business
ProcessEnergy
Raw Materials
Water Effluent
Product
Wealth
In this model water is subjected to a linear process degrading in utility as it passes through the “black box”.
So water as a stock is the product of linear thinking in which the finite resource is used and then discarded.
SA’s National Stock is ± 33 Km³, which is 66% of the MAR (50 Km³).
Water as a Flux
Industrial Process
Industrial Process
Industrial Process
Industrial Process
Industrial Process
Industrial Process
Industrial Process
So the water as a flux paradigm is the product of network thinking in which it is cascaded around the economy with the number of new process cycles limited only by our ingenuity and technological capacity as a nation.
In this model a network of processes unlocks the maximum value from water and multiplies the initially perceived finite nature of the resource.
Our National Flux is 66 Km³, if we recycle only once.
Key Water Issues• The South African economy is
fundamentally water constrained.• We have reached that threshold and are now
moving into an unknown era where Assurance of Supply will increasingly become a business risk.
• We need new partnerships between Government, Organized Business and the National Science Councils to develop and resource a fresh Strategic Vision.
• Business cannot sit idle any longer.
What do you need to do?• Organized business should start to understand
water as a business risk.• A Collaborative Business Partnership in Water is
a way to go – based on Business Against Crime. (Avoid the blame game).
• Companies must understand business risks in terms of input, process and output and then develop mitigation strategies for each of these sets of issues.
• Risk mitigation is scale dependent.
Conclusion• Water resource management will need a
new strategic paradigm if we are to grow our economy.
• National Water Quality Science, Technology and Policy Support Program– National Council of Provinces has already
accepted this.
• Q x F = Y (38 x 2 = 76) • Become part of the Solution.• Yes we can!
Thank You
Q x F = Y
F = 1.7 by 2035
Top Related