1. The Changing U.S. Economy: What Does It Mean for Oklahoma?
Chad Wilkerson
Oklahoma City Branch Executive
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Governors Council for Workforce and Economic Development April 10,
2006
2. I. The U.S. Industrial Structure of the Future
3. The structure of the U.S. economy will change over the next
5-10 years. Why?
The short answer is:
Because it always has. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. The longer answer includes several inter-related factors:
Changing consumer tastes
Increasing globalization
Changing workforce skills
Technological improvements
5.
The latest projections go through 2014 and were finalized in
late 2005.
How will the structure of the U.S. economy change over the next
5-10 years?
Obviously no one knows exactly.
One respected source is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,
whose economists do detailed 10-year projections of industrial and
occupational employment every other year.
6. 15 U.S. industries projected to ADD jobs the fastest through
2014*
* Among industries with more than 100,000 employees
Business services 3. Management consulting services 5. Facilities
support services 6. Employment services 7. Office administrative
services 13. Accounting, tax, & payroll services High-tech
services 2. Software publishers 8. Computer systems design Health
and social services 1. Home health care services 4. Residential
care facilities 9. Outpatient & laboratory services 10. Child
day care services 12. Offices of health practitioners 15.
Rehabilitation services Education services 11. Other educational
services 14. Colleges & universities Source: U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics
7. 15 U.S. industries projected to SHED jobs the fastest
through 2014*
* Among industries with more than 100,000 employees
Nondurable manufacturing 1. Cut and sew apparel mfg. 2. Fabric
mills 3. Basic chemical mfg. 6. Rubber product mfg. 8. Synthetic
materials mfg. 13. Pulp & paper mills 14. Petroleum & coal
mfg. Durable manufacturing 4. Industry machinery mfg. 5. Electrical
equipment mfg. 7. Foundries 10. Computer mfg. 12. Metalworking
machinery mfg. 15. Other machinery mfg. Natural resources 9.
Sawmills & wood preservation 11. Crop production Source: U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
8. II. Industrial Structure and Future Oklahoma Job and Income
Growth
9.
In addition, states with favorable industrial structures tend
to grow even faster than one would expect, due to spillover growth
to other industries.
How much impact does a changing U.S. industrial structure have on
state job growth?
Research suggests about 15-20 percent of the variation in state
job growth rates over 10-year periods can be explained by
industrial structure.
10. Annual employment growth, 2004-2014 if states industries
grow at projected national rate Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics 1.30%-1.50% 1.20%-1.29% 1.11%-1.19% 0.98%-1.10%
11. The 10 industries contributing the most to differences
between OK and US projections Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics Small Positive Semiconductor & electronic mfg. 10
Large Negative Support activities for mining 9 Large Negative
Federal government 8 Small Negative Educational services 7 Large
Negative Nonagriculture self-employed workers 6 Large Positive
Employment services 5 Small Positive Cut and sew apparel mfg. 4
Small Negative Computer systems design 3 Large Negative Oil and gas
extraction 2 Large Negative Agricultural products (grain,
livestock) 1 Presence? Contribution? Industry or Small Negative Due
to Large Positive or
12. Oklahoma City is projected to have a higher share of the
long-term job growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Percent
13. The net effect of expected changes in the mix of jobs is to
raise average salaries in OK Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics
14. U.S. and Oklahoma job growth is projected to be fastest
among high-paying occupations Projected Annual Job Growth by
Average Pay Through 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics
15. III. Meeting Oklahomas Future Workforce Needs
16. From 1994-2004, OK met its employment demand largely by
population growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S.
Census Bureau Average annual growth in employment and working age
population, 1994-2004 Percent
17. but also by increased labor force participation Oklahoma
United States Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
18. Meeting future job demand could be a little tougher
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau
Projected annual growth in employment and working age population,
2004-2014 Percent
19. Non-metro Oklahoma may have an advantage: an untapped labor
supply Source: U.S. Census Bureau
20. Oklahoma must ensure potential workers obtain the training
necessary to succeed Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
21. Oklahomas share of college graduates is slightly lower than
in the U.S. Source: U.S. Census Bureau
22. Conclusions
The industrial structure of the United States is expected to
continue to change in the years ahead
Oklahomas intermediate-term outlook for jobs and incomes, based
on industrial structure, is slightly less favorable than the
nations
A challenge for Oklahoma heading forward will be finding and
training the workers needed to fill the jobs of the future