The Case 0f Sri Lanka
Ganga TilakaratnaResearch Fellow
Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka
Outline
Youth Bulge in Sri Lanka
Youth Employment and Unemployment : Current Status
Youth Employment: Key Issues to be addressed
Conclusions and Policy Suggestions
2
Youth Bulge in Sri Lanka
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1981 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
% o
f pop
ulat
ion
Years
Population by Age Group : 1981-2041
Less than 15 Years 15-29 Years 30-59 Years Over 60 Years
30%
22%27%
Source: Based on data from De Silva W.I (2007) : A population Projection of Sri Lanka for the New Millennium : 2001-2101
19% Youth (15-29 years)
60+ years
3
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1981 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Num
ber o
f you
th in
thou
sand
s
Year
Youth Population : 1981-2041
Number of youth (15-29 years) Total Population
Source: Based on data from De Silva W.I (2007)
Youth population (the number of youth) started to decline since 2006
4
Pattern of Youth Population in Sri Lanka: Contributory Factors
1) Fertility decline 2) Increase in life expectancy
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
1952
1962
-…
1970
-…
1980
-…
2000
-…
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
Life
Exp
ecta
ncy
at B
irth
(Yea
rs)
Year
Male
Female0123456
1953
1963
1971
1981
1995
-200
0
2003
-200
6
%
Years
Fertility Transition 1953-2003/2006
Total Fetility Rate
Source: Based on Gunasekera, H.R., (2008), De Silva (2013)
5
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Num
ber
Years
Departure for Foreign Employment 1986-2011
Male Female Total
3) Increasing trend of migration
Source: Based on CBSL, 2012
Increasing level of migration since early 1980s – for permanent migration, employment, education & other
35-40% of those who migrate for employment are youth 6
Youth Unemployment in Sri Lanka
0
10
20
30
40
5019
92
1994
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
%
Years
Youth Unemployment rate (1992-2012)
15-19 Years 20-29 Years Total Unemployment
Source: Based on Sri Lanka Labour Force Survey Data Various Years
Decline in overall unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate In early 1990s, youth unemployment was much higher Despite the declining trend, unemployment rate among youth has been
much higher than the overall rate.7
Unemployment Rate by Age and Gender -2012
Unemployment among 15-24 group is about four times higher than the overall unemployment rate- 17.3%
Unemployment is particularly higher among young females - 23.5% among 15-24 group
4
17.3
6.6
2.50.8
2.8
14
4.3
1.4 0.5
6.2
23.5
11.4
4.7
1.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Total 15-24 years 25-29 years 30-39 years Over 40 years
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
%
Age Group
Total Male Female
Source: Based on LFS 2012
8
About 75% of unemployed are youth (over 40% are between 20-24 years)
The pattern has remained unchanged over the past 2 decades
Source: Based on CBSL, 2012
0102030405060708090
100
%
Years
Distribution of Unemployed Persons byAge Group
15-19 years 20-24 years 25-29 years Over 30 years
9
4
0.6
3.2
6
7.5
2.8
0.3
2.6
4.7 4.5
6.2
1
4.6
8.8
10.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Total Grade 5 & below Grade 6 - 10 G.C.E. (O/L) G.C.E. A/L & above
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
%
Level of Education
Unemployment Rate by Level of Education -2012
Total Male Female
Source: Based on Labor Force Survey 2012
Unemployment among the educated is higher, particularly among educated females….
10
Status of Youth Employment
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
15-19 20-24 25-29 Over 30
%
Age Groups
Unpaid Family Worker
Own Account Worker
Employer
Private Employee
Public Employee 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Youth All
%
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30 +
Informal sector employment - 2009
Formal Informal
Significant share of employed youth are in informal sector jobs.
Source: World Bank (2010) 11
Female Labour Force Participation Rate
12
Source: Sri Lanka Labour Force Survey Annual Report 2011
Female LFPR has not only been low but has fallen in recent year
LFPR among young females is about half that among young males (37% vs 74% in 20-24 age group & 39% vs 94% in 205-29)
Youth Employment : Key Issues to be Addressed
13
1) Skills Mismatch
Two types :
Lack of skills (technical/ ‘soft’ skills) in demand in the labour market
Shortage of jobs to match the needs and aspirations of job-seekers
Lack of skills among youth , to a large extent, is due to gaps in the current education system (tertiary and secondary)
14
Distribution of Youth by the type of Education Institute
Source: based on LFS 2009 data ( UNDP, 2012)
Sri Lanka’s tertiary education system caters only to a smaller proportion of youth, primarily due to the limited capacity.
A larger share of youth enter the labour market without higher education/ vocational/ technical training
15
National Examination Success Rates and University Admission
2010
Number sitting for O-Levels 433,673
Percentage qualifying for A-Levels (% of O/L candidates) 58
Number sitting for A-Levels 233,354
Number qualifying to enter university 142,415
Percentage qualifying to enter university (% of A/L candidates) 61
Number admitted to university 21,547
Percentage admitted to university (% of A/L qualified) 17
Source: DCS (2011), Statistical Pocket Book 2011 ( UNDP, 2012)
Due to limited capacity in state universities, each year, more than 100,000 qualified students miss opportunity to enter university.
Limited alternatives opportunities – few private universities, vocational training)
16
Distribution of University Enrolments by Subject Heavy concentration on
Arts/Management (almost 55% studied these disciplines)
Proportion of undergraduates studying science/engineering/ IT is smaller - but increasingly high demand !
Lack of ‘soft skills’ (communication skills, IT working knowledge, proficiency in ‘English’ language) skills mismatch in labour market
Source: UGC, 2012 (UNDP, 2012)
17
2) Queuing for public sector jobs Due to job security, pensions and non-wage benefits – e.g.
‘more’ holidays and ‘less work’ Preference for public sector jobs is high among females (and
graduates) Gender parity in earnings in the public sector.
3) Gender- wage gap The gender- wage gap is much higher in the private and semi-
government sectors - around 36% and 30% respectively compared to 8% in public sector ( World Bank, 2012)
4) Inequitable gender division in the labour market (male jobs/ female jobs) or gender segregation by occupation
18
5) Regulatory environment governing the labour market contributes to slow growth of formal jobs -Termination of Employment of Workmen Act (TEWA)
Effective in protecting jobs and preventing job losses but raise the cost of hiring formal workers
Leads to hiring of informal workers by formal enterprises.
19
Conclusions and Policy Suggestions
20
Improving quality and relevance of education (tertiary and secondary) More emphasis on disciplines like ICT, science and
technology– there is an increasing demand for labour in these areas but there’s a shortage of skilled labour
Policies to improve ‘soft skills’ in addition to technical skills Establish links between education institutes and
industry/private sector
Expanding the tertiary education sector
Vocational Training
Career guidance / job search assistance Set-up career centres throughout the country and career
guidance at school level.21
Re-visiting labour market regulations that hinder the creation of formal jobs.
Measures to address gender-wage gap and gender segregation of occupation in labour market
Measures to increase female labour force participation
Youth entrepreneurship – financial assistance, training, BDS
Strengthening social protection
22
THANK YOU!
23
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