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TheArabWorldFearstheSafavidDoreGold,June9,2013

InaninterviewonAl-JazeerathispastMay,thecommanderoftheFreeSyrianArmy,Brig.Gen.SalimIdris,explainedthatthediversionof

HezbollahforcesfromLebanontoSyriatotakepartinthecivilwarwas

partofaSafavidplanfortheMiddleEastregion.

ThispastJanuary,anarticleintheinfluentialLebanesedailyAs-

SafiraccusedIraqsShiitePrimeMinisterNourial-Malikiofreceiving

assistancefromhisSafavidallies.AfterthepowerfulSunniMuslim

leader,SheikhYousufal-Qaradawi,condemnedIranforitsactionsin

Syria,theMuslimScholarsAssociationofLebanonwarnedthatthe

SunniArabswerefacingthespreadingSafawiproject.

Indeed,overthelastdecade,thetermSafavidhasbecomea

commonlyusedderogatorywordamongArableadersfortheIranians.

AmericanjournalistBobWoodwarddescribesaharshdiplomatic

exchangeinoneofhisbooksbetweenKingAbdullahofSaudiArabiaand

ahigh-levelU.S.officialaboutthe2003IraqWar,inwhichtheSaudi

leaderstates:YouhaveallowedthePersians,theSafavids,totakeover

Iraq.ByusingthetermSafavid,Arableadersweremakingreferenceto

theSafavidEmpireandimputinghegemonicmotivationstothecurrent

Iraniangovernment,suggestingthatIranisseekingtore-establishtheir

countrysformerimperialborders.

WhoweretheSafavidsandoverwhatterritoriesdidtheyrule?

TheSafavidEmpirewasbasedinIranandexistedbetween1501and

1722.Itsfounder,ShahIsmail,madeShiiteIslamthestatereligionof

IranandhewagedwarsagainsttheleadingSunnistateatthetime,theOttomanEmpire.Atitsheight,theSafavidEmpireextendeditsrulewell

beyondIranspresentbordersintolargepartsofAfghanistan,Pakistan

andTurkemanistan,intheeastandcoveringhalfofIraq,including

BaghdadandtheShiiteholycitiesofNajafandKerbala,alongwiththe

easternmostpartofSyriainthewest.

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TheearlySafavidleadersimportedShiiteleadersfromsouthern

LebanontohelpwiththepropagationofShiiteIslamacrossPersia.Thus

thetiesbetweenIranandLebanoncanbetracedbackatleasttothe

16thcentury.Inthesouth,theSafavidEmpirereachedtheArabian

coastlineofthePersianGulf,whileinthenorthitincludedwhatistoday

AzerbaijanandArmenia.TheIranianleadershiptodayhasnotformally

claimedthebordersoftheSafavidEmpire,butitcertainlymade

statementssuggestingtheyreflectedpartoftheirnationalaspirations.

Forexample,HosseinShariatmadariservedasanunofficial

spokesmanforIransSupremeLeaderAyatollahAliKhameneiaswellas

theeditoroftheconservativeIraniandaily,Kayhan.InJuly2007,he

wroteanop-edstatingthattheArabstatesoftheGulfwereestablishedasaresultoftheinterventionoftheWest.HeinsistedthattheArab

peoplesintheArabianpeninsulawerenotinvolvedintheappointment

oftheirgovernments.HethenclaimedspecificallythatBahrainwaspart

ofIranianterritory.In2009,AliAkbarNateqNouri,whowas

Khameneiscandidateforpresidentin1997,bluntlycalledBahrain

Irans14thprovince.

AmemberoftheIranianParliamentsCommitteeforNational

SecurityandForeignPolicybackedShariatmadarisstatementand

remindedtheArabstatesthatmostofthemwereoncepartofIranian

soil.MorerecentlyanotherKhameneiassociatecalledSyriaIrans

35thprovince.ItwasnotsurprisingwhenInternetwhistle-blowersite

WikiLeaksuncoveredaseniorOmaniofficer,whoworkedforSultan

Qaboos,tellingavisitingAmericancounterpartin2008thattheregime

inTehranwasmotivatedbyanIranianexpansionistideology.

Aftertakingoffice,AyatollahAliKhameneiprovidedjustificationfortheIranianactivismthatwasthreateningtheArabstates.Ashe

explainedtotheIraniandailyRessalatin1991,IransNationalSecurity

Strategywasnotjustbasedonpreservationoftheintegrityofthe

Iranianstate,butratheronitsexpansionheusedthetermbast,in

Arabic.ThisworldviewwasevidentinthestatementsofsomeofIrans

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mostimportantseniorofficers.Gen.QassemSuleimani,thecommander

oftheQudsForceoftheIslamicRevolutionaryGuardsCorpsstatedin

2012withrespecttoLebanonandIraq:Theseregionsareonewayor

anothersubjecttothecontroloftheIslamicRepublicofIranandits

ideas.SuleimanireportsdirectlytoKhameneiandwasjustappointed

tocoordinateallIranianmilitaryactivitiesinSyriaagainstIsrael.

Indiplomacy,afundamentaldistinctionisoftendrawnbetween

statusquostatesthataresatisfiedwiththeextentoftheirterritoryand

donotseektoaltertheirbordersandanti-statusquostatesthataspire

toexerciseinfluenceovertheirneighborsandultimatelytakeovertheir

territories.BycallingtheIraniansSafavids,theArabsideisexpressing

itsviewthatIranisananti-statusquostatewhichwantsthosepartsofIraqwheretheSafavidsonceruledaswellastheterritoriesofmanyof

theArabGulfstates.

ThisdiscussionisrelevantforthedebateintheWestoverthe

consequencesofanuclearIran.LastmonthanIranian-Americananalyst

fromtheRANDCorporation,AlirezaNader,wroteintheprestigious

AmericanjournalForeignPolicyhisviewthatIranisonlyseeking

nuclearweaponsfordeterrence.ThepurposeofanIranianbombisthus

defensive;allIranisseekingistopreventtheWestfromcarryingout

regimechangeagainstitsIslamistleadership.HeclearlyportraysIran

asastatus-quostatethatwillnotoverthrowtheregimesofitsArab

neighbors.ThisworkfitsinwellwiththenewtrendinWashingtonof

recommendingthattheObamaadministrationreconsiderthepolicyof

containment,whichitdroppedin2012infavorofthepolicyof

prevention.

Thereareotherviewsthatnegatethesesuggestions.SaudiMaj.FeisalAbukshiemwroteanoutstandingstudylastyearfortheU.S.

ArmysCommandandStaffCollegethatreachedthecompletely

oppositeconclusionsabouttheimplicationsofanuclearIranonthe

MiddleEast.HedetailedhowIranusedShiitemovements,someof

whoseleadersstudiedintheIraniancityofQom,inordertopromote

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assassinations,sectarianrebellionsandterrorinBahrain,Kuwaitand

SaudiArabia.HepointedoutthecasesofpastIranianmilitary

interventionintheUnitedArabEmirates,Lebanon,Yemenandmost

recentlyinSyria.Hethenconcludedthatthepossessionofnuclear

weaponswillencourageIrantoexpandthoseeffortswithout

deterrence.

Anuclearweaponinthehandsofastatus-quostatewitha

defensiveorientationisaverydifferentstorythannuclearweaponsin

thehandsofastatethatwantstototallychangetheinternationalstatus

quo.Thiscouldhaveoffensiveimplications.IfIranreallyviewsitselfas

atruncatedstatethatdeservestorecovertheterritoriesitonce

controlledinthedaysoftheSafavidEmpire,thendeterrenceofanuclearIraninthefuturewillbefarmoredifficultthanmanyinthe

Westcurrentlyrealize.