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Maritime Strategic Overview
of the Asia-Pacific
Professor Carlyle A. ThayerProfessor Carlyle A. Thayer
Australian Defence Force AcademyAustralian Defence Force AcademyPresentation toPresentation to
RSN International Maritime Security ConferenceRSN International Maritime Security Conference
Singapore, May 13-24, 2009Singapore, May 13-24, 2009
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Changing Global Environment
IMF forecasts unusually long and severe globalIMF forecasts unusually long and severe global
recessionrecession
The primary near-term concern of the UnitedThe primary near-term concern of the United
States is the global economic crisis and itsStates is the global economic crisis and itsgeopolitical implications.geopolitical implications.
Director of (US) National IntelligenceDirector of (US) National Intelligence
Chinas rise is the most consequential long termChinas rise is the most consequential long term
trend in the world today.trend in the world today.
Hugh White, former Australian Deputy Secretary forHugh White, former Australian Deputy Secretary for
Defence (Strategy and Intelligence)Defence (Strategy and Intelligence)
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Chinas GDP to Overtake US
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Changing Power Relativities
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Changing Global Environment
Arc of instability across Africa and MiddleArc of instability across Africa and Middle
EastEast
prominence of non-state actorsprominence of non-state actors Demographic deficits in Japan and RussiaDemographic deficits in Japan and Russia
Persisting but diminished U.S. globalPersisting but diminished U.S. global
dominancedominance Emerging multipolar systemEmerging multipolar system
Growing importance of maritime domainGrowing importance of maritime domain
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The Maritime Domain
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Asia-Pacific Inter-State Dynamics
Impact of Global Economic CrisisImpact of Global Economic Crisis
U.S. moral authority dented and attraction ofU.S. moral authority dented and attraction of
capitalist development model underminedcapitalist development model undermined
Strengthening of Chinas leadership role andStrengthening of Chinas leadership role and
enhancement of state-led development modelenhancement of state-led development model
National economic recovery and economicNational economic recovery and economic
growth key priority for allgrowth key priority for all
North Korea going against the tideNorth Korea going against the tide
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Asia-Pacific Inter-State Dynamics
U.S. National Security Policy (June 2009)U.S. National Security Policy (June 2009)
U.S. commitment to allies through forwardU.S. commitment to allies through forward
presence and power projection (Guam)presence and power projection (Guam) U.S.-Japan allianceU.S.-Japan alliance
cornerstone of U.S. strategycornerstone of U.S. strategy
Defense Policy Review Initiative (transformationDefense Policy Review Initiative (transformationand realignment)and realignment)
First overseas visit by Secretary ClintonFirst overseas visit by Secretary Clinton
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Asia-Pacific Inter-State Dynamics
U.S.-Korea allianceU.S.-Korea alliance
U.S. Forces Korea transformationU.S. Forces Korea transformation
Assumption of war-time operational controlAssumption of war-time operational control20122012
U.S.-India relationsU.S.-India relations
Indian Maritime Doctrine (2004)Indian Maritime Doctrine (2004)
Evolving strategic partnershipEvolving strategic partnership
Defence sales, maritime security cooperation,Defence sales, maritime security cooperation,
counter-terrorism, HA/DR engagementcounter-terrorism, HA/DR engagement
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Asia-Pacific Inter-State Dynamics
China: primacy of economic growth andChina: primacy of economic growth andpeaceful international environmentpeaceful international environment
Defence transformation and modernizationDefence transformation and modernization Taiwan Strait contingenciesTaiwan Strait contingencies
U.S.-China relationsU.S.-China relations Taiwan Relations ActTaiwan Relations Act
Strategic and Economic DialogueStrategic and Economic Dialogue Resumption of military-to-military relationsResumption of military-to-military relations
Rival, peer competitor, strategic partner?Rival, peer competitor, strategic partner?
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Comparing Defence Budgets
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Chinas Critical SLOCs
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Anti-access/
area-denialor power
projection?
Conventional
Anti-Access
Capabilities Ballistic
Missiles
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Yulin NavalYulin Naval
BaseBase
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Asia-Pacific Inter-State Dynamics
JapanJapan Deployments to Indian Ocean, Gulf of AdenDeployments to Indian Ocean, Gulf of Aden
South KoreaSouth Korea
Redefinition of U.S-Korea allianceRedefinition of U.S-Korea alliance From coastal patrol to blue water fleetFrom coastal patrol to blue water fleet
ROK to assume operational control 2012ROK to assume operational control 2012
Rise of Indias power and influenceRise of Indias power and influence
Cooperation with US but independent actorCooperation with US but independent actor Concern over Chinas presence in Indian OceanConcern over Chinas presence in Indian Ocean
Emergence of East Asian security architectureEmergence of East Asian security architecture
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The Next Decade
Continuing impact Global Financial CrisisContinuing impact Global Financial Crisis
Hardy perennialsHardy perennials
Korean peninsula, Taiwan, South China SeaKorean peninsula, Taiwan, South China Sea
Security Dilemma naval arms build upSecurity Dilemma naval arms build up
Submarines and other platformsSubmarines and other platforms
Upgrade of Regional Security ArchitectureUpgrade of Regional Security Architecture North East Asia and Indian Ocean deficitsNorth East Asia and Indian Ocean deficits
APEC Plus and/or EAS Plus?APEC Plus and/or EAS Plus?
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Maritime Strategic Overview
of the Asia-Pacific
Professor Carlyle A. ThayerProfessor Carlyle A. Thayer
School of Humanities & Social SciencesSchool of Humanities & Social Sciences
University of New South WalesUniversity of New South Walesat the Australian Defence Force Academyat the Australian Defence Force Academy
Canberra, AustraliaCanberra, Australia
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