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Grameenphone Ltd. 4th Quarter, 2019 Results
Michael Patrick Foley, CEO
28 January 2020
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Disclaimer
The following presentation is being made only to, and is only
directed at, persons to whom such presentation may lawfully be
communicated (’relevant persons’). Any person who is not a
relevant person should not act or rely on this presentation or any of
its contents. Information in the following presentation relating to the
price at which relevant investments have been bought or sold in the
past or the yield on such investments cannot be relied upon as a
guide to the future performance of such investments.
This presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or
otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to
underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in
Grameenphone Ltd. The release, publication or distribution of this
presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and
therefore persons in such jurisdictions into which this presentation is
released, published or distributed should inform themselves about,
and observe, such restrictions.
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Connecting 76.5 Mn customers
and 40.6 Mn Data customers
BDT 8,505 Cr. paid to National
Exchequer in 2019
Providing deep sea connectivity
Building a safe online world for
900,000 children in 580 schools
Empowering start-up community
through GP Accelerator
31 December 2019
Empowering Societies
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Highlights
Q4 2019
4th Quarter 2019
36.2 Bn Revenue (+4.2% YoY)
61.2% EBITDA Margin
9.2 Bn Profit After Taxes
10,000+ 4G/LTE Sites
Full Year 2019
143.7 Bn Revenue (+8.1% YoY)
87.8 BDT Bn EBITDA (+10.0% YoY)
46.2% SIM Market Share*
17% Data Revenue Growth
Final Dividend 130% of PuC
*BTRC Published data as of Dec’19**As per IAS 17
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Solid topline growth driven by growth in data and voice revenue
• 715 4G/LTE sites rolled out
• 11.9 Mn 4G customers
• Improved network resilience
• Focus on 4G SIM conversion
• Nationwide trade campaigns
• Negative impact from seasonality
• Appellate Division Ruling on Injunction
• Non-cooperation from BTRC on NOCs
• Tower Co. still unresolved
NETWORK
ROLLOUT
MARKET
OPERATIONS
CHALLENGINGREGULATORY
ENVIRONMENT
Q4 2019
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Regulatory Landscape
Q4 2019 More details on Business Highlights
BTRC
Audit
Significant Market Power
Tower CoLicensing
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Grameenphone Ltd. 4th Quarter, 2019 Results
Jens Becker, CFO
28 January 2020
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BTRC Audit
• GP has disputed the whole audit demand based on errors in substance, methodology, procedure
• Grameenphone has been continuing engagement with the authorities with a view to find a transparent and amicable
resolution.
• Significant uncertainty about validity of demand and outcome of dispute
• Therefore, as of now, no reliable estimation of liability can be derived
• The errors in the audit findings
• The unprecedented long period covered (20+ years)
• The inclusion of already settled/resolved matters
• The erroneous claim on behalf of third parties
• The inclusion of sub-judice matters
Absence of a merit-based
determination through
any solution process
+
Q4 2019
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Solid financial performance with strong margins
4.8% YoY GrowthSubscription & Traffic Revenue*
61.2% EBITDA Margin**
9.7% CAPEX/Sales***
6.81Earnings Per Share
Q3 2019
*Revenues generated by own subscription (excludes interconnection)**As per IAS 17 & restated***Capex excluding license & lease; Capex/sales = moving average last 4 quarters Q4 2019
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5.1% subscriber growth while covering 75% population under 4G network
Total Subscribers (Mn)
Q4 2019
99.6%Population Coverage
96.0%Geography Coverage
74.5%4G Population
Coverage72.7
76.5
75.3
Q4’18 Q1’19 Q2’19 Q3’19 Q4’19
74.1
75.7
+5.1%
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4.8% growth in subscription & traffic revenue; Full Year +9.6%
*Daily revenues generated by own subscription (excludes interconnection)
Total Revenue (BDT Bn) and Growth (YoY)
Q4 2019
DSTR* (BDT Mn) and Growth (YoY)
34.7 34.9 36.0 36.6 36.2
Q2’19Q1’19
6.6%7.7%
Q3’19
11.6%
Q4’18
10.6%
4.2%
Q4’19
143.7
2019
8.1%
353 364 372 371 370
13.4%
Q3’19Q2’19Q1’19Q4’18
11.3%
6.7%
14.2%
4.8%
Q4’19
369
2019
9.6%
• 4.8% YoY growth in subs & traffic revenue
mainly contributed by growth in data & voice
revenue
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14.2% growth in data revenue with 9.5% growth in data user
Q4 2019*Revenues generated by own subscription (includes interconnection)** Minimum 150 KB usage within last 3 months
• Data revenue driven by growth in users and 3.3%
growth in data ARPU
Data Revenue (BDT Bn) and % of Service Revenue*
• Continued expansion of 4G network along with 4G conversion
• 2.1pp improvement in data user penetration
Active Data Users** (Mn) and % of Sub-base
7.0 6.9 7.2 7.8 8.0
21.7%20.6%
Q3’19Q4’18
20.0% 20.2%
Q1’19 Q2’19
22.5%
Q4’19
+14.2%
29.8
2019
21.1%
37.1 38.2 39.8 40.6 40.6
53.7%
Q2’19
51.0%52.8%
Q4’18 Q1’19
51.6%
Q3’19
53.1%
Q4’19
+9.5%
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Marginal decline in service ARPU while 3.3% growth in data ARPU
Service ARPU, AMPU and APPM
• Full year service ARPU remained stable
Q4 2019
157 156 159 158 156
212 216 220 219 213
Q3’19
0.74 0.72
Q2’19Q4’18
0.720.72
Q1’19 Q4’19
0.73
-0.8%
157
217
0.73
2019
Data ARPU, AMBPU and APPMB
64 61 62 64 66
0.05
1,234
Q1’19
1,763
Q4’19
1,912
0.03
1,418
Q3’19
0.04
Q4’18
0.04
1,576
Q2’19
0.04
+3.3%
ARPU (BDT) AMBPU APPMB (BDT)
• Growth in data ARPU mainly driven by 54.9% growth
in AMBPU despite competitive pressure on pricing
ARPU (BDT) AMPU APPM (BDT)
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BDT 0.7Bn EBITDA growth in Q4’19; Full year +10.0%
Q4 2019
Opex (BDT Bn) and Margin**
*EBITDA before other items**As per IAS 17, restated
EBITDA* (BDT Bn) and Margin**
11.2 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.9
Q3’19
32.4%
Q4’18
34.2%
Q2’19Q1’19
31.9%32.8% 33.0%
Q4’19
+6.3% +2.3%
Margin %Opex (BDT Bn)
47.4
33.0%
2019
21.5 21.0 22.1 22.6 22.1
Q2’19
61.8%
Q3’19Q4’18
61.4%60.2%
Q1’19
61.8% 61.2%
Q4’19
+3.1% -2.1%
EBITDA (BDT Bn) Margin %
87.8
61.1%
2019
• Full year EBITDA margin improved by 1.1pp • Full year Opex/Sales ratio improved by 1.5pp
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H2’19 Investment impacted by restrictions on approvals
Q4 2019
• Focused investment on 4G roll-out, data capacity
enhancement & coverage expansion
• 715 new 4G sites and 128 new 3G sites rolled out
• Total number of sites stand at 16,506 along with
10,022 4G sites
*Capex excluding license & leaseCapex/sales = moving average of last 4 quarters
*Capex (BDT Bn) and Capex/Sales%
3.9 4.2
3.8
2.1
3.9
Q3’19
12.6%12.7%
Q4’18
9.8%
Q1’19
11.8%
Q2’19
9.7%
Q4’19
16.9
13.9
9.7%
2019
12.7%
2018
Capex Capex/Sales%
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7.0% growth in earnings with a strong margin of 25.4%
Q4 2019
NPAT (BDT Bn) and Margin*
*On reported basis, restated
Earnings Per Share (BDT)*
8.6 8.5
9.6
7.3
9.2
24.8%
Q4’18
24.4% 26.5%
Q1’19 Q3’19Q2’19
19.9%25.4%
Q4’19
+7.0%
NPAT (BDT Bn.) Margin %
34.5
2019
24.0%
6.36 6.29
7.07
5.38
6.81
Q3’19Q4’18 Q1’19 Q2’19 Q4’19
+7.0%24.71
25.56
2018 2019
+3.5%
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BDT 18.2 Bn OCF and Net debt/EBITDA of -0.04
Q4 2019
*OCF (BDT Bn) and OCF/Sales%
*OCF equals EBITDA minus Capex (excluding license & lease) as per IAS17**Net Debt = Short term debt + Long term debt - Cash and Cash equivalents (excl. restricted cash) ; 12 months rolling restated EBITDA as per IAS17
Net debt (BDT Bn) and Net debt/EBITDA**
17.5 16.8 18.4
20.5
18.2
Q2’19
51.0%56.1%
Q4’18
50.5%
Q3’19
48.2%
Q1’19
50.3%
Q4’19
OCF/Sales %OCF
73.9
51.5%
2019
2.8
(5.3)
8.0
(3.1)(3.9)
(0.06)
Q2’19
0.09
0.03
Q4’18 Q1’19
(0.04)
Q3’19
(0.04)
Q4’19
Net Debt Net Debt/EBITDA
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51.1 58.6 61.8
84.2 85.0
20172015 2016 2018 2019
Contribution to the Bangladesh Economy
• BDT 85Bn (equaling 59.2% of total revenues) contributed to national exchequer in 2019
• Contribution in the form of taxes, VAT, duties, license/spectrum fees & revenue share
Contribution to National Exchequer BDT Bn
754.5
Total
12.7 4G license payment
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2019
Recommended 130% of PuC cash full year dividend for 2019
BDT 13.00Dividend Per Share
2019 (Full Year)
50.86%Payout Ratio2019 (Full Year)
BDT 25.56Earnings Per Share
2019 (Full Year)
• Shareholders as of the record date 17 February 2020 will be entitled
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Solid business performance with strong margins in a very challenging environment
Building network for better data experience and strong distribution ecosystem remains our focus for future growth and efficiency
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Q&A
Q4 2019
*In consideration of the local regulations, Grameenphone Ltd. does not provide any forward looking statements.
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